• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제39권5호
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• pp.29-40
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• 2019

In response to the rapid climate change, in order to save energy in the field of buildings, the country is planning not only zero energy buildings but also zero energy cities. In the Urban Development Project, the Energy Use Plan Report is prepared and submitted by predicting the amount of energy demand at the planning stage. However, due to the activation of zero-energy buildings and the increase in the supply of new and renewable energy facilities, the energy consumption behavior of buildings in the city is changing from the previous ones. In this study, to estimate urban energy demand of Zero Energy City, building energy demand forecasts based on "Passive plans for use of energy based primary energy consumption", "Actual building energy usage data from Korea Appraisal Board" and "data from Certification of Building Energy Efficiency Rating" as well as demand forecast according to existing "Consultation about Energy Use Plan Code" were calculated and then applied to Multifunctional Administrative City 5-1 zone to compare urban total energy demand forecasts.

• 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농공학회 2002년도 학술발표회 발표논문집
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• pp.37-40
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• 2002

It is to show the problems of the existing techniques to estimate agricultural water demand and to suggest the new methods considering the water demand for non-irrigated area and decrease of water loss in canal. It is to suggest the methods to improve the techniques for estimating agricultural water demand and to analyze the water demand and supply according to the facilities capacity. Until now, the concept of per the unit used to estimate agriculture water demand is useful to estimate demand, but is insufficient to cope with the variations of conditions in future. And the paddy area of government is not realistic against a trend of decrease. Water demand decrease is caused by constructions of irrigation facilities as constructing of irrigation canal, but application loss ratio is fixed. Increase of the water demand owing to the increase of the yield per the unit area is also the actual condition which is not considered. The guide-line must contain these contents for a demand estimate.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.55-67
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• 2009

우리나라의 경우 기존에 시행된 대부분의 도로건설사업이 교통수요의 과다 예측으로 인하여 재정의 낭비를 초래하였다. 이 같은 교통수요 예측 오류 발생의 원인은 여러 가지가 있을 수 있지만 사용된 교통기초자료의 낮은 신뢰성과 기관 간 정보연계 미흡을 주요한 원인으로 꼽을 수있다. 이에 본 연구는 대표적 교통기초자료인 국가교통DB와 수도권 가구통행실태는 향후 추진될 도로건설사업계획 수립에 크게 활용될 것이며 이 자료들도 현재 낮은 신뢰성과 기관 간 정보연계 미흡의 문제가 있으므로 개선이 필요하다는 인식하에서 시도되었으며 도로부문 교통기초자료 구축사업의 문제점을 교통수요 예측 관련 자료를 중심으로 살펴보고 개선방안을 제시하고자 하였다.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한산업공학회/한국경영과학회 1994년도 춘계공동학술대회논문집; 창원대학교; 08월 09일 Apr. 1994
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• pp.317-326
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• 1994

본 논문은 통신망 설계/성능분석 및 동적라우팅(Dynamic Routing)등 통신망 제반 요소기술의 기초자료가 되는 단대단 수요트래픽의 최적값을 찾는 방법 에 관한 것으로, 기본 알고리듬은 ITC 13차에서 발표되어 속도가 빠르고 메 모리절약 기법이 뛰어난 것으로 평가되고 있는 PPDEA-HM(Point-to-Point Demand Estimation Algorithm using Hopfield Model)을 이용하였다. 이 알 고리듬은 망의 소통율에 따라 성능에 차이가 나므로 이 점을 보완한 MPPDEA-HM(Modified Point-to-Point Demand Estimation Algorithm using Hopfield Model)을 제안하며, 두 결과들이 variation을 비교하여 MPPDEA-HM의 특성이 보다 안정화되었음을 보였다.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.169-175
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• 2001

Most of studies on automated storage/retrieval (AS/R) system assumed that storage capacity is given, although it is a very important decision variable in the design phase. We propose a simple algorithm to estimate the required storage capacity, i.e., number of aisles and number of openings in vertical and horizontal directions in each aisle, of an AS/R system under stochastic demand, in which storage requests occur endogenously and exogenously while the retrieval requests occur endogenously from the machines. Two design criteria, maximum permissible overflow probability and maximum allowable storage/retrieval (S/R) machine utilization, are used to compute the storage capacity. This model can be effectively used in the design phase of new AS/R systems.

• 경영과학
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.179-197
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• 2005

This study examines market acceptance for DMB service, one of the touted new business models in Korea's next-generation mobile communications service market, using adoption end diffusion of innovation as the theoretical framework. Market acceptance for DMB service was assessed by predicting the demand for the service using the Bass model, and the demand variability over time was then analyzed by integrating the innovation adoption model proposed by Rogers (2003). In our estimation of the Bass model, we derived the coefficient of innovation and coefficient of imitation, using actual diffusion data from the mobile telephone service market. The maximum number of subscribers was estimated based on the result of a survey on satellite DMB service. Furthermore, to test the difference in diffusion pattern between mobile phone service and satellite DMB service, we reorganized the demand data along the diffusion timeline according to Rogers' innovation adoption model, using the responses by survey subjects concerning their respective projected time of adoption. The comparison of the two demand prediction models revealed that diffusion for both took place forming a classical S-curve. Concerning variability in demand for DMB service, our findings, much in agreement with Rogers' view, indicated that demand was highly variable over time and depending on the adopter group. In distinguishing adopters into different groups by time of adoption of innovation, we found that income and lifestyle (opinion leadership, novelty seeking tendency and independent decision-making) were variables with measurable impact. Among the managerial variables, price of reception device, contents type, subscription fees were the variables resulting in statistically significant differences. This study, as an attempt to measure the market acceptance for satellite DMB service, a leading next-generation mobile communications service product, stands out from related studies in that it estimates the nature and level of acceptance for specific customer categories, using theories of innovation adoption and diffusion and based on the result of a survey conducted through one-to-one interviews. The authors of this paper believe that the theoretical framework elaborated in this study and its findings can be fruitfully reused in future attempts to predict demand for new mobile communications service products.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.13-31
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• 2003

This provided a basic frame to analyze the investment effect on the road, railroad, airport and port as a national dimension but it still has a limitation to analyze the specific economic and financial validities to consider the characteristics of the traffic facilities within the area. Conclusively, the aims of this study provide the reasonable evaluation guidelines effectively to the local automatic groups, especially Chungju in the frame of the present evaluation guidelines. We provide the adaptive alternatives on the present systems which are difficult to adapt to the present investment evaluation guidelines; the estimation method of the social economic index and the estimation method of the traffic demand. Additionally, we discuss the research method of the passage actual state for a reasonable estimation of the traffic demand. The result of this study will be activated for the validity check and construction plan of the reasonable traffic investment plan of Chungju city.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2003년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.77-79
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• 2003

New cities and industrial complexes are being developed actively because of the government policies aiming population distribution and vitalization of construction industry. To determine the investment amount, number of power lines and substations for stable power supply to newly developed residential and industrial complexes, accurate estimation of power demand is necessary. This paper propose standards for the estimation of power demands for power company and construction company to settle the debates surrounding this issue. Through a survey and analysis of existing areas, new standards that will enable more accurate estimation of power demands in new cities complexes to be developed in the future are established by calculating the average load density, load factor, utilization factor by area, use and building size after dividing the facilities into building type and the areas into the areas planned to be developed and the areas not yet planned to be developed.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.205-213
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• 2012

본 논문은 내항상선 선원의 수급 안정화를 기하여 연안해운의 발전을 도모하기 위하여 구체적으로 내항상선 선원의 수급실태의 분석을 통해 향후 내항상선 선원의 수요 전망을 예측하고자 하는 것이다. 연안 해운기업의 경쟁력 강화에 있어서 선원수급과 선원인력양성의 필요성을 인지하고, 특히 인력수요예측의 정밀성을 높이고 지속적이고 피드백이 가능한 예측 프로세스를 모색하는 것은 현재 연안해운기업의 열악한 선원인력관리의 어려움을 극복하기 위한 단초로서 현재 시의적절한 연구주제가 될 것이다. 향후 내항상선 선원의 수요부문에서 선박 척수의 변화에 따른 시뮬레이션 결과, 증가율 기준을 0.1%~1% 폭의 수준을 상정할 경우 7,879~8,258명으로 예측되었다. 이는 2009년 현재 7,831명 수준에서 매년 약 20~430명의 추가 인력이 투입되어야 함을 의미한다. 일반적으로 5년 내지 10년 단위로 단속적으로 예측치를 제시하는 방법은 예측의 사후추적이 부실한 관계로 예측정확도가 떨어지기 쉬운 점을 선행연구 검토 부분에서 확인하였으며, 본 연구와 같이 현황자료를 기초로 예측치와 실제치의 차이에 대한 피드백을 위해 매년 평가를 실행하고 그 결과를 차기년도 예측에 반영하는 접근방법을 도입한다면, 선원인력의 수급에 대한 예측정확도를 높일 수 있을 것이다.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제51권4호
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• pp.497-514
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• 2023

Purpose: This study aims to estimate the demand for various public parking lots in Seoul by clustering similar demand types of parking lots and predicting the demand for new public parking lots. Methods: We examined real-time parking information data and used time series clustering analysis to cluster public parking lots with similar demand patterns. We also performed various regression analyses of parking demand based on diverse heterogeneous data that affect parking demand and proposed a parking demand prediction model. Results: As a result of cluster analysis, 68 public parking lots in Seoul were clustered into four types with similar demand patterns. We also identified key variables impacting parking demand and obtained a precise model for predicting parking demands. Conclusion: The proposed prediction model can be used to improve the efficiency and publicity of public parking lots in Seoul, and can be used as a basis for constructing new public parking lots that meet the actual demand. Future research could include studies on demand estimation models for each type of parking lot, and studies on the impact of parking lot usage patterns on demand.