• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.55 no.4
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• pp.172-178
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• 2006

In this paper, an advanced demand clustering algorithm which can explore the planned maintenance outage of generators in changed electricity industry is proposed. The major contribution of this paper can be captured in the development of the long-term estimates for the generation availability considering planned maintenance outage. Two conflicting viewpoints, one of which is reliability-focused and the other is economy-focused, are incorporated in the development of estimates of maintenance outage based on the advanced demand clustering algorithm. Based on the advanced clustering algorithm, in each demand cluster, conventional effective outage of generators which conceptually capture maintenance and forced outage of generators, are newly defined in order to properly address the characteristic of the planned maintenance outage in changed electricity markets. First, initial market demand is classified into multiple demand clusters, which are defined by the effective outage rates of generators and by the inherent characteristic of the initial demand. Then, based on the advanced demand clustering algorithm, the planned maintenance outages and corresponding effective outages of generators are reevaluated. Finally, the conventional demand clusters are newly classified in order to reflect the improved effective outages of generation markets. We have found that the revision of the demand clusters can change the number of the initial demand clusters, which cannot be captured in the conventional demand clustering process. Therefore, it can be seen that electricity market situations, which can also be classified into several groups which show similar patterns, can be more accurately clustered. From this the fundamental characteristics of power systems can be more efficiently analyzed, for this advanced classification can be widely applicable to other technical problems in power systems such as generation scheduling, power flow analysis, price forecasts, and so on.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.497-514
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• 2023

Purpose: This study aims to estimate the demand for various public parking lots in Seoul by clustering similar demand types of parking lots and predicting the demand for new public parking lots. Methods: We examined real-time parking information data and used time series clustering analysis to cluster public parking lots with similar demand patterns. We also performed various regression analyses of parking demand based on diverse heterogeneous data that affect parking demand and proposed a parking demand prediction model. Results: As a result of cluster analysis, 68 public parking lots in Seoul were clustered into four types with similar demand patterns. We also identified key variables impacting parking demand and obtained a precise model for predicting parking demands. Conclusion: The proposed prediction model can be used to improve the efficiency and publicity of public parking lots in Seoul, and can be used as a basis for constructing new public parking lots that meet the actual demand. Future research could include studies on demand estimation models for each type of parking lot, and studies on the impact of parking lot usage patterns on demand.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.193-203
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• 2016

This paper forecasts electricity demand as a critical element of a demand management system in Smart Grid environment. We present a prediction method of using a combination of predictive values by time series clustering. Periodogram-based normalized clustering, predictive analysis clustering and dynamic time warping (DTW) clustering are proposed for time series clustering methods. Double Seasonal Holt-Winters (DSHW), Trigonometric, Box-Cox transform, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS), Fractional ARIMA (FARIMA) are used for demand forecasting based on clustering. Results show that the time series clustering method provides a better performances than the method using total amount of electricity demand in terms of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.395-406
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to identify the pattern of daily electricity demand through clustering and classification. The hourly data was collected by KPS (Korea Power Exchange) between 2008 and 2012. The time trend was eliminated for conducting the pattern of daily electricity demand because electricity demand data is times series data. We have considered k-means clustering, Gaussian mixture model clustering, and functional clustering in order to find the optimal clustering method. The classification analysis was conducted to understand the relationship between external factors, day of the week, holiday, and weather. Data was divided into training data and test data. Training data consisted of external factors and clustered number between 2008 and 2011. Test data was daily data of external factors in 2012. Decision tree, random forest, Support vector machine, and Naive Bayes were used. As a result, Gaussian model based clustering and random forest showed the best prediction performance when the number of cluster was 8.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.35-46
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• 2013

In order to develop an accurate analytical model for domestic electricity demand forecasting, we propose a prediction method of the electric power demand pattern by combining SMO classification techniques and a dimension reduction conceptualized subspace clustering techniques suitable for high-dimensional data cluster analysis. In terms of electricity demand pattern prediction, hourly electricity load patterns and the demographic and geographic characteristics can be analyzed by integrating the wireless load monitoring data as well as sub-regional unit of census information. There are composed of a total of 18 characteristics clusters in the prediction result for the sub-regional demand pattern by using census information and power load of Seoul metropolitan area. The power demand pattern prediction accuracy was approximately 85%.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.82-96
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• 2020

The Demand Responsive Transit (DRT) system is the flexible public transport service that determines the route and schedule of the service vehicles according to users' requests. With increasing importance of public transport systems in urban areas, the development of stable and fast routing algorithms for DRT has become the goal of many researches over the past decades. In this study, a new heuristic method is proposed to generate fast and efficient routes for multiple vehicles using demand clustering and destination demand priority searching method considering the imbalance of users' origin and destination demands. The proposed algorithm is tested in various demand distribution scenarios including random, concentration and directed cases. The result shows that the proposed method reduce the drop of service ratio due to an increase in demand density and save computation time compared to other algorithms. In addition, compared to other clustering-based algorithms, the walking cost of the passengers is significantly reduced, but the detour time and in-vehicle travel time of the passenger is increased due to the detour burden.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.64 no.1
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• pp.41-47
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• 2015

In recent years, energy supply cases to take advantage of EMS(Energy Management System) are increasing according to high interest of energy efficiency. The important factor for essential and economical EMS operation is the supply and demand plan the hourly power demand of building load using the hierarchical clustering method of variety statistical techniques, and use the real historical data of target load. Also the estimated results of study are obtained the reliability through separate tests of validity.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.326-336
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• 2019

A wireless power transfer technique can solve the power capacity problem in wireless rechargeable sensor networks (WRSNs). The charging strategy is a wide-spread research problem. In this paper, we propose a demand-based charging strategy (DBCS) for WRSNs. We improved the charging programming in four ways: clustering method, selecting to-be-charged nodes, charging path, and charging schedule. First, we proposed a multipoint improved K-means (MIKmeans) clustering algorithm to balance the energy consumption, which can group nodes based on location, residual energy, and historical contribution. Second, the dynamic selection algorithm for charging nodes (DSACN) was proposed to select on-demand charging nodes. Third, we designed simulated annealing based on performance and efficiency (SABPE) to optimize the charging path for a mobile charging vehicle (MCV) and reduce the charging time. Last, we proposed the DBCS to enhance the efficiency of the MCV. Simulations reveal that the strategy can achieve better performance in terms of reducing the charging path, thus increasing communication effectiveness and residual energy utility.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.885-894
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• 2015

It is necessary to forecast the electricity demand for reliable and effective operation of the power system. In this study, we try to categorize a functional data, the mean curve in accordance with the time of daily power demand pattern. The data were collected between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2011. And it were converted to time series data consisting of seasonal components and error component through log transformation and removing trend. Functional clustering by Ma et al. (2006) are applied and parameters are estimated using EM algorithm and generalized cross validation. The number of clusters is determined by classifying holidays or weekdays. Monday, weekday (Tuesday to Friday), Saturday, Sunday or holiday and season are described the mean curve of daily power demand pattern.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.9-14
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• 2018

For an efficient management of electricity market and power systems, accurate forecasts for electricity demand are essential. Since there are many factors, either known or unknown, determining the realized loads, it is difficult to forecast the demands with the past time series only. In this paper we perform a cluster analysis on electricity demand data collected from Jan. 2000 to Dec. 2017. Our purpose of clustering on electricity demand data is that each cluster is expected to consist of data whose latent variables are same or similar values. Then, if properly clustered, it is possible to develop an accurate forecasting model for each cluster separately. To validate the feasibility of this approach for building better forecasting models, we clustered data with t-SNE. To apply t-SNE to time series data effectively, we adopt the dynamic time warping as a similarity measure. From the result of experiments, we found that several clusters are well observed and each cluster can be interpreted as a mix of well-known factors such as trends, seasonality and holiday effects and other unknown factors. These findings can motivate the approaches which build forecasting models with respect to each cluster independently.