• Title/Summary/Keyword: Delphi analysis

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A Study on the State-of-the-Art Technology Level Evaluation and Internation R&D Cooperation in the Field of Mechanical Engineering by Delphi Method (Delphi기법에 의한 기계공학기술의 수준평가 및 국제 기술협력기반에 관한 연구)

  • Y.J. Kwon;S.H. Joo;Kim, H.B.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.45-58
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    • 1996
  • We provide a set of information on technologies in the area of mechanical engineering to draw meaningful action plans for the internationalization of National R&D activities. In this study, we employed a modified Delphi method to evaluate levels of our technoligical capabilities and developed countries' as well. We investigate technology acquistion methodologies, technology charcteristics and various aspects of interna- tional cooperation in terms of technology. Then, we analyzed final responses of participants(i.e., the third round results of Delphi method) to see the correlation among various factors in developing mechanical engineeing technologies through international cooperation. The technology classification used in this research was devel- oped by STEPI(Science and Technology Policy Institute). In conclusion, our mechanical engineering technology is investigated to be below the middle level stage of technology(i.e., the stage of digesting acquired technologies) except the shipbuilding equipments technology which is evaluated to be on the top level stage of technology.

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A Delphi Study on Software Project Risks (소프트웨어 개발 프로젝트의 위험요인 도출에 대한 델파이 연구)

  • Chung Kyung-Soo;Kang Myeong-Hui;Kim Yong
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2004
  • Most of the software development projects bear risks that need analysis and management. Risk management plays a critical role for the success of software project management. In this study, we have used delphi method to delineate critical risk factors. The study pulls out 20 project risk factors from 21 project managers. It is certainly clear that certain features are more risky than others. Our study shows that unrealistic cost estimation and changes in scope and objective are more risky than other features.

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Empirical Study for the Technological Forecasting using Delphi Method

  • Kim, Yon-Hyong
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.425-434
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, we evaluated the technological forecasting based on questionnaires of experts working in internet-banking industry. We prepared questionnaires on the 13 items. We examined specialties of respondents, relative importance of research contents, expected time of realization, likelihood of conviction on the expected time of realization, and their opinions on the levels of domestic's research and development comparing with advanced standards on each item. And we made various analysis based on data collected from Delphi method.

Development of Questionnaires for Blood Stasis Pattern (어혈변증설문지(瘀血辨證設問紙) 개발(開發))

  • Yang, Dong-Hoon;Park, Yong-Jae;Lee, Sang-Chul;Park, Young-Bae
    • The Journal of the Society of Korean Medicine Diagnostics
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.141-152
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    • 2006
  • Background and Objectives: The diagnosis of flood stasis pattern is one of the most important methods in oriental medicine. The aim of this study is to Develop clinically useful questionaire of Blood stasis(瘀血) and quantitative analysis. Methods: The questionnaire including symptoms and signs for diagnosis of Blood stasis pattern is studied by delphi method and statistical analysis. Result: By the delphi method and statistical analysis, 14 Items of questionnaries are choosen. Conclusion: Further research is necessary for improvement reliabilities and validities of the questionnaires of Blood stasis pattern.

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Development of Drought Vulnerability Index Using Delphi Method Considering Climate Change and Trend Analysis in Nakdong River Basin (낙동강 유역의 기후변화를 고려한 경향성 분석과 Delphi 기법을 이용한 가뭄 취약성 지수 개발)

  • Yang, Jeong-Seok;Kim, Il-Hwan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.2245-2254
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    • 2013
  • A vulnerability index was developed for drought by using trend analysis and Delphi method. Twelve indicators were selected based on three groups, i.e., hydrological, meteorological, and humanistic groups. Data were collected from Nakdong river watershed. Three trend tests, i.e., Mann-Kendall, Hotelling-Pabst, and Sen's trend tests, were performed for standardizing the indicators and Delphi method was used to estimate the weights for individual indicators. The drought vulnerability index was calculated for seven regions in the Nakdong watershed and Hapcheon turned out to be the most vulnerable region among the study regions. The drought vulnerability index developed in this study can be applied to other regions in Korea for establishing national water resources management plan.

A Study on the Analysis of Validity and Reliability of the Delphi Forecasting in Korea (델파이 기술예측의 타당성과 신뢰성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Gwon, Seong-Hoon;Hong, Soon-Ki
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.97-117
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    • 2009
  • The Delphi is a popular technique for forecasting based on the opinions of experts. It is important to know how valid and reliable the technique is. In this paper, we analyze accuracy and precision of the Delphi in IT and BT of Korea, and also discuss the relationship between them. As a result of the analysis, the accuracy and precision of the forecasts partly have significant differences according to their area and degree of expertise. Besides, significant correlation between the accuracy and precision of forecasts with high expertise is found. The result indicates that the precision of forecasts can be a criterion of the accuracy of them.

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Delphi기법에 의한 기계공학기술과 다른 기술분야의 국제적 기술수준과 국제기술협력 가능성에 대한 비교연구

  • 권영주
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 1997.04a
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    • pp.794-798
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    • 1997
  • We provide a set of information on technologies to draw meaningful action plans for the inter- nationalization of National R&D activities. In this study, we employed a modified Delphi method to evaluate level od our technological capabilities and developed countries' as well. We investigated technology acquistion methodologies,technology characteristics and various aspects of international cooperation in terms of technology. Then we analyzed final responses of participants (i.e, the third round results of Delphi method) to see the correlation among various factors in developing tehnologies through international R&D cooperation. The technology classification used in this research was developed by STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute). In conclusion, levels of our technologies were investigated to be between the stage of imitating/absorbing advanced technologies and the stage of digesting acquired technologies. Especially, comparing with other technologies, mechanical engineering was evaluated to be almost near the stage of digesting acquired technology (the middle level stage of technology). Out overal technological capabilites were evaluated to be 40~60% of top level countries'.

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A Comparative Study on the International Technology Levels and R&D Cooperation Capabilities of Mechanical Engineering and Other Technologies by Delphi Method (Delphi기법에 의한 기계공학기술과 다른 기술분야의 국제적 기술수준과 국제기술협력 가능성에 대한 비교연구)

  • Kwon, Youngjoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.74-82
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    • 1997
  • We provide a set of information on technologies to draw meaningful action plans for the internationalization on National R&D activities. In this study, we employed a modiffed Delphi method to evaluate levels of our technological capabilities and developed countries as well. We investigated technology acquis- tion methodologies, technology characteristics and various aspects of international cooperation in terms of technology. Then, we analyzed final responses of participants (i.e., the third round results of Delphe method) to see the correlation among various factors in developing technologies through international R&D cooperation. The technology classification used in this research was developed by STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute). In conclusion, levels of our technologies were investigated to be between the stage of imi- tating/absorbing advanced thechnologies and the stage of digesting acquired technologies. Especially, com- paring with other technologies, mechanical engineering was evaluated to be almost near the stage of digesting acquired technology(the middle level stage of technology). Our overal technological capabilities were evaluated to be 40 .approx. 60% of top level countries.

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Development of Child-Care Support Policy Strategies in Response to Declining Young Children's Population (영유아 인구 감소에 대응하기 위한 보육현장 지원정책 제안)

  • Byung Man Kim;Su Jeong Jeong;Kang Hoon Lee;Hong Nam Im;Jung Ju Kim
    • Korean Journal of Childcare and Education
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.169-194
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    • 2024
  • Objective: The purpose of this study is to develop a child-care support policy strategy in response to the decrease in the population of children aged 0-5 years. This will be achieved by collecting opinions from a panel of experts on child-care support policies through a Delphi survey. Methods: To achieve the purpose of this study, a panel of 20 experts in child-care policy was selected, and a Delphi survey was conducted over three sessions. Data collected through the Delphi survey underwent analysis, including frequency analysis, descriptive statistics, content validity ratio, coefficient of variation, agreement, and convergence. Data processing was carried out using Excel 2016 and SPSS 26.0. Results: As a result of the study, a child-care support policy strategy addressing the decrease in the population of children aged 0-5 years was developed, comprising three policy areas, nine policy tasks, and 38 detailed policy tasks. Conclusion/Implications: Based on these results, it is anticipated that the study will not only enable the preparation of a strategy for child-care support policy to address the decrease in the population of children aged 0-5 years but also offer significant implications for shaping the direction of child-care support policy in alignment with the common good.

A Study on the Decision Making Model for Construction Projects using Fuzzy-AHP and Fuzzy-Delph (Fuzzy-AHP와 Fuzzy-Delphi기법을 이용한 건설프로젝트의 의사결정 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Lee Dong-Un;Kim Yeong-Su
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.4 no.1 s.13
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    • pp.81-89
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    • 2003
  • This research suggests the FD-AHP decision making model for Construction Projects which is composed of two main method to prevent a ranking invert situation ; First, to make the consensus of the experts consistent, we utilize Fuzzy-Delphi method to adjust the fuzzy rating of every expert to achive the consensus condition with the fuzzy linguistic presentation. Second, to handle vague linguistic presentation caused by expert's experiences and subjective judgement, we propose Fuzzy-AHP which is able to enhance precision of construction projects decision mating situation. Moreover, with the correlation analysis, we show that the validity of the FD-AHP model under a decision making task specially on where highly demanded expert's experiences and intuition.