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Comparative Study of Automatic Trading and Buy-and-Hold in the S&P 500 Index Using a Volatility Breakout Strategy (변동성 돌파 전략을 사용한 S&P 500 지수의 자동 거래와 매수 및 보유 비교 연구)

  • Sunghyuck Hong
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.57-62
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    • 2023
  • This research is a comparative analysis of the U.S. S&P 500 index using the volatility breakout strategy against the Buy and Hold approach. The volatility breakout strategy is a trading method that exploits price movements after periods of relative market stability or concentration. Specifically, it is observed that large price movements tend to occur more frequently after periods of low volatility. When a stock moves within a narrow price range for a while and then suddenly rises or falls, it is expected to continue moving in that direction. To capitalize on these movements, traders adopt the volatility breakout strategy. The 'k' value is used as a multiplier applied to a measure of recent market volatility. One method of measuring volatility is the Average True Range (ATR), which represents the difference between the highest and lowest prices of recent trading days. The 'k' value plays a crucial role for traders in setting their trade threshold. This study calculated the 'k' value at a general level and compared its returns with the Buy and Hold strategy, finding that algorithmic trading using the volatility breakout strategy achieved slightly higher returns. In the future, we plan to present simulation results for maximizing returns by determining the optimal 'k' value for automated trading of the S&P 500 index using artificial intelligence deep learning techniques.

Detecting high-resolution usage status of individual parcel of land using object detecting deep learning technique (객체 탐지 딥러닝 기법을 활용한 필지별 조사 방안 연구)

  • Jeon, Jeong-Bae
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2024
  • This study examined the feasibility of image-based surveys by detecting objects in facilities and agricultural land using the YOLO algorithm based on drone images and comparing them with the land category by law. As a result of detecting objects through the YOLO algorithm, buildings showed a performance of detecting objects corresponding to 96.3% of the buildings provided in the existing digital map. In addition, the YOLO algorithm developed in this study detected 136 additional buildings that were not located in the digital map. Plastic greenhouses detected a total of 297 objects, but the detection rate was low for some plastic greenhouses for fruit trees. Also, agricultural land had the lowest detection rate. This result is because agricultural land has a larger area and irregular shape than buildings, so the accuracy is lower than buildings due to the inconsistency of training data. Therefore, segmentation detection, rather than box-shaped detection, is likely to be more effective for agricultural fields. Comparing the detected objects with the land category by law, it was analyzed that some buildings exist in agricultural and forest areas where it is difficult to locate buildings. It seems that it is necessary to link with administrative information to understand that these buildings are used illegally. Therefore, at the current level, it is possible to objectively determine the existence of buildings in fields where it is difficult to locate buildings.

Development of hydro-mechanical-damage coupled model for low to intermediate radioactive waste disposal concrete silos (방사성폐기물 처분 사일로의 손상연동 수리-역학 복합거동 해석모델 개발)

  • Ji-Won Kim;Chang-Ho Hong;Jin-Seop Kim;Sinhang Kang
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.191-208
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    • 2024
  • In this study, a hydro-mechanical-damage coupled analysis model was developed to evaluate the structural safety of radioactive waste disposal structures. The Mazars damage model, widely used to model the fracture behavior of brittle materials such as rocks or concrete, was coupled with conventional hydro-mechanical analysis and the developed model was verified via theoretical solutions from literature. To derive the numerical input values for damage-coupled analysis, uniaxial compressive strength and Brazilian tensile strength tests were performed on concrete samples made using the mix ratio of the disposal concrete silo cured under dry and saturated conditions. The input factors derived from the laboratory-scale experiments were applied to a two-dimensional finite element model of the concrete silos at the Wolseong Nuclear Environmental Management Center in Gyeongju and numerical analysis was conducted to analyze the effects of damage consideration, analysis technique, and waste loading conditions. The hydro-mechanical-damage coupled model developed in this study will be applied to the long-term behavior and stability analysis of deep geological repositories for high-level radioactive waste disposal.

Intraspecific diversity and phylogeography of bony lip barb, Osteochilus vittatus, in Sundaland, as revealed by mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (mtCOI)

  • Imron Imron;Fajar Anggraeni;Wahyu Pamungkas;Huria Marnis;Yogi Himawan;Dessy Nurul Astuti;Flandrianto Sih Palimirmo;Otong Zenal Arifin;Jojo Subagja;Daniel Frikli Mokodongan;Rahmat Hidayat
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.145-158
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    • 2024
  • Life history characteristics, habitat landscape, and historical events are believed to have shaped the patterns of genetic variation in many taxa. The bony lip barb, Osteohilus vittatus, represent a potamodromous fish that complete all life cycle in freshwater and is widely distributed in Southeast Asia. It usually lives in small rivers and other freshwater habitats, and movement between habitats for either food or reproduction has been typical. These life history characteristics may promote gene flow, leading to less structured populations. However, many freshwater habitats are fragmented, which restricts gene flow. We investigate how this interplay has shaped patterns of genetic variation and phylogeographic structure within this species in the Sundaland, a biodiversity hotspot with a complex geological history, using mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (mtCOI) as a genetic marker. Forty-six mtCOI sequences of 506 bp long were collected from ten localities, eight geographically isolated and two connected. The sequences were used for population genetic and phylogeographic analyses. Our results showed a low genetic diversity within populations but high between populations. There was a deep phylogeographic structure among geographically isolated populations but a lack of such structure in the connected habitats. Among geographically isolated populations, sequence divergence was revealed, ranging from 1.8% between Java and Sumatra populations to 12.2% between Malaysia and Vietnam. An indication of structuring was also observed among localities that are geographically closer but without connectivity. We conclude that despite high dispersal capacity, the joint effects of historical events, long-term geographic isolation associated with sea level oscillation during the Pleistocene, and restricted gene flow related to lack of habitat connectivity have shaped the phylogeographic structure within the O. vittatus over the Sundaland.

The Prediction of Export Credit Guarantee Accident using Machine Learning (기계학습을 이용한 수출신용보증 사고예측)

  • Cho, Jaeyoung;Joo, Jihwan;Han, Ingoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.83-102
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    • 2021
  • The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

Ammonium Nitrate Explosion Technique for the Establishment of Orchard (산지과수(山地果樹)의 재식(栽植)을 위(爲)한 폭약이용(爆藥利用)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Yoo, S.H.;Koh, K.C.;Park, M.E.
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.169-178
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    • 1980
  • Ammonium nitrate explosion technique was applied to seek a convenient method for the establishment of orchard on the undulating to rolling land or hill side of Pogog clay loam soil (Fine Aquic Fragiudalfs : Planosols) having high bulk density and low permeability. Explosions were made by three ammonium nitrate explosives placed in the bottom of 90cm deep auger hole with every 2m interval (Explosion I) and 4m interval (Explosion II) respectively. The effect of the explosion on physical properties of the soil was investigated and compared with the effect induced by manual digging, excavation of $1m{\times}1m$ in diameter and depth (Manual digging I) and trenching of $1m{\times}1m{\times}25m$ in width, depth, and length (Manual digging II) respectively. The results investigated after 7 months from the treatments are summarized as follows : 1. The explosion or manual digging reduced bulk density and hardness, whereas the treatments increased porosity, hydraulic conductivity, and available moisture-holding capacity of the soil. 2. The explosion of 4 m interval improved physical properties of the soil to optimum level up to 70cm of the distance from the explosion core in the range of depth 0-60cm, while in the case of depth from 60 to 100cm the optimum level was achieved only within 50cm radius. 3. When exploded in 2 m interval, the effect in the 0-60cm depth was overlapped between two explosion cores. The effect in the depth between 60 and 100cm, however, was found to be independent of the explosion intervals. 4. The manual digging was only costly and laborious but effective only within the work-up zone. 5. For the soils having bulk density higher than $1.4g/cm^3$ after the treatments, the field capacity determined 72 hours after a heavy rain was lower than the laboratory estimate at the suction of 1/3 atm. 6. The top growth of apple tree for the first year revealed that the explosion seemed better treatment than the manual digging, even though the difference was insignificant.

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Quaternary Geology and Paleoecology of Hominid Occupation of Imjin Basin (임진강유역 구석기 공작의 고생태학적 배경)

  • Seonbok Yi
    • The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.25-50
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    • 1988
  • The survival of rich evidence of palaeolithic occupation found in the Imjin-Hant'an River basin was possible due to many fortuitous geological conditions provided there. Formation of the basalt plain in a narrow valley system which developed during the late Mesozoic insured the appearance of a basin of sedimentation in which archaeological sites would be preserved with relatively minor post-depositional disturbance. Geomagnetic and K-Ar dating indicates that lava flows occurred during the Brunes Normal Epoch. During and after the process of basin sedimentation, erosion of the plain was confined to the major channel of the present river system which developed along the structural joints formed by the lava flow. Due to characteristic columnar structure and platy cleavage of the basalt bedrock, erosion of the basalt bedrock occurred mainly in vertical direction, developing deep but narrow entrenched valleys cut into the bedrock. Consequently, the large portion of the site area remained intact. Cultural deposits formed on top of the basalt plain were left unmodified by later fluvial disturbances due to changes in the Hant'an River base-level, since they were formed about 20 to 40m above the modern floodplain. Sedimentological evidence of cultural deposits and palynological analysis of lacustrine bed formed in the tributary basin of the Hant'an River indicate that hominid occupation occurred in this basin under rapidly deteriorating climatic conditions. From three thermoluminescence dates, the timing of hominid occupation as represented by 'Acheulian-like' bifaces apparently occur sometime during 45,000 BP. Thus, deposition of cultural layers in this basin approximately coincides with the beginning of the second stadial of the final glacial, during which the Korean Peninsula must have had provided a sanctuary for prolonged human occupation.

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A Study on Home Economist Education with Refrence to the Business Activities in Korea (가정학교육과 취업방안연구)

  • 한상순
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.163-185
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    • 1989
  • Korean home economics education has around 100 years history. The main aims of home economics education up 1950 had not been changed, they were mainly for the improvement of household-skill to raise both standard of living and life quality as well as womanhood. After 1960's the standard of living drastically improved and the industrialization of Korean society was quite rapidly proceeded from simple to complex one. Because of these changes, I considered that the aims and the contents of home economics education should be reexamined and reshaped. This study motivated me that especially home economics major should be trained to be competent enough to work in industrialized society as much as the input to her college education. As industialization was made progress, family member's diverse role differentiation also occurred from past simple role such as house wife or girl's high school teacher among by home economics major. In this current societal change, most of the home economics major have wish to have opportunities obtaining new kinds of employment rather than obtaining merely teaching work. With this in mind I made a study on college level home economics education of the new adjustment to current and future industrialized Korean society. (1) The full number of officially admissible home economics major in 169 Korean colleges, 70 junior colleges, and one open university were as follows, 7139, 6080, and 230 respectively. The percentages of employed of employed numbers of them for the college and junior college graduates were 26.5 and 39.0 respectively. (2) The certificate qualifications issued to college home economics major are nutritionist (1st grade and 2nd grade), clothes and textilist, home economics teacher (2nd grade for high school) and kindergartener (2nd grade), The qualifications are certified after majoring each field from major departments of college of home economics by Ministrys of Labour and Education of the Korean government. The percentages of their employment are low as mentioned earlier. (3) To find out new employment opportunity for home economics graduates in home economist in business (henceforce/HEIB) status quo of consumer division for mational enterprise was surveyed. According to govermment decree of general law of consumer protection (1980), enterprise should organize bureau (offics, subdivision) on liability to consumer's complaint. Of 89.6% of the enterprise established th subdivision in which 96.2% of employee was male (3.8% was female). Of the employee college graduate and high school graduate were 93.2% and 6.8% respectively. On the employee's major acadmic backgroud (%), economics and business administration, engineering and low-political science were 39.5, 26.2 and 11.2 respectively. (4) To study on the relation between home economics and home economist in business, the aspect of historical development of HEIB, group of HEIB employing enterprise and their nature of business were tried to find out as well as perception and evaluation by enterprise on HEIB. (a) In the united States of America employed home economics major to enterprise was organized autonomously HEIB subdivision within American Home Economics Association since 1920's and the membership of HEIB was 3,000 of the AHEA membership 50,000. (b) In Japan the Japanese founder HEIB had three times the bilateral congress with the U.S.HEIB and had 10th anniversary celebration in 1988. Japanese HEIB member are not necessary to be home economics graduates but should have certificate as consumer adviser effected by the Minister of Trade and Industry. Japanese subdivision of consumer affaire within Japanese enterprise employ the consumer adviser with the certificate. Because of this different system from the United Sates, Japanese HEIB call their title "HEEB" instead of HEIB. The Japanese consumer adviser certificate system had initiated since 1980 and it belongs to 2nd level national qualification certificate. Currently active membership of Japanese "HEEB" association had increased from 115 (in 1979) to 319 in 1988. (5) For the opening of the future new employment of home economics graduates to enterprise and qualification required for the HEIB by national enterprise in Korea, I studied on the courses which seem to be important and required by employee in the field of HEEB in the United States of America and preliminary curriculum for home economics related major student aimning to be the future "HEEB" by Japanese HEEB study group of Japanese Association of Home Economics. It is suggested that it is very important and urgent to realize as home economics educator to have common deep concern and endeavors on opening new employment for our home economics major student1), we should try to publicize strongly and let enterprise and consumer protection board realize that employee in the subdivision of consumer protection should be the one who well experienced home economics major graduates2), we, home economics educator, should try to develop actively new curriculum in line of the suggestion made earlier for our future home economics major student of open broadly their future employment opportunities3), we, home economics educators, should try to have consensus on whether we should have support from government in terms of receiving national qualification certificate on consumer pretection or not4), and I would appreciate if the Korean Home Economics Association and Korean Home Management Society paydeep and positive concern on this matter.

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Mesozoic Granitoids and Associated Gold-Silver Mineralization in Korea (한국 중생대 화강암류와 이에 수반된 금-은광화작용)

  • 최선규;박상준;최상훈;신홍자
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.25-38
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    • 2001
  • Contrasts in the style of the gold-silver mineralization in geologic and tectonic settings in Korea, together with radiometric age data, reflect the genetically different nature of hydrothermal activities, coinciding with the emplacement age and depth of Mesozoic magmatic activities. It represents a clear distinction between the plutonic settings of the Jurassic Daebo orogeny and the subvolcanic environments of the Cretaceous Bulgugsa igneous activities. During the Daebo igneous activities (about 200-130 Ma) coincident with orogenic time, gold mineralization took place between 197 and 127 Ma. The Jurassic deposits commonly show several characteristics: prominent association with pegmatites, low Ag/Au ratios in the ore-concentrating parts, massive vein morphology and a distinctively simple mineralogy including Fe-rich sphalerite, galena, chalcopyrite, Au-rich eIectrum. pyrrhotite and/or pyrite. During the Bulgugsa igneous activities (120-60 Ma), the precious-metal deposits are generally characterized by such features as complex vein morphology, medium to high AgiAu ratios in the ore concentrates, and abundance of ore minerals including base-metal sulfides, Ag sulfides, native silver, Ag sulfosalts and Ag tellurides. Vein morphology, mineralogical, fluid inclusion and stable isotope results indicate the diverse genetic natures of hydrothermal systems. The Jurassic Au-dominant deposits were formed at the relatively high temperature (about 300 to 450$^{\circ}$C) and deep-crustal level (>3.0 kb) from the hydrothermal fluids containing more amounts of magmatic waters (3180; 5-10 %0). It can be explained by the dominant ore-depositing mechanisms as CO2 boiling and sulfidation, suggestive of hypo/mesothermal environments. In contrast, mineralization of the Cretaceous Au-Ag type (108-71 Ma) and Agdominant type (98-71 Ma) occurred at relatively low temperature (about 200 to 350$^{\circ}$C) and shallow-crustal level «1.0 kb) from the ore-fonning fluids containing more amounts of less-evolved meteoric waters (15180; -10-5%0). These characteristics of the Cretaceous precious-metal deposits can be attributed to the complexities in the ore-precipitating mechanisms (mixing, boiling, cooling), suggestive of epilmesothermal environments. Therefore, the differences of the emplacement depth between the Daebo and the Bulgugsa igneous activities directly influence the unique temporal and spatial association of the deposit type.

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A Study on the Direction of Policing for Effective Disaster Prevention and Management (효과적인 재난 예방 및 관리를 위한 경찰활동 방향)

  • Lee, Ju-Lak;Shin, So-Young
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.51
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    • pp.317-334
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    • 2017
  • The burden of addressing the damage and financial losses caused by disaster events falls primarily on local governments. Given this reality, preparing for disasters and assessing the effects of disaster management would be more effective if both were carried out at the local level. However, disaster management in South Korea is realized at the national level, revolving around the central government. The Ministry of Public Safety and Security, which was newly established after the sinking of MV Sewol, was criticized for failing to carrying out its role as a "disaster control tower" in dealing with the earthquakes near the city of Gyeongju in 2016. The criticism, as well as deep anxiety concerning the ministry's ability to effectively respond to disasters, means that there is a need for a practical alternative plan to the current method of dealing with disasters. As such, there is an increasing call to re-examine the role of the police force, which played an integral part in past disaster response efforts, in future disaster events. Among the various activities the police force performs, this study focused on one particular role and function of the police, namely community policing. Specifically, this study examined community policing within the context of local governments. The primary purpose of community policing is crime prevention. But the police must respond to citizens' expectations and desires that the police expand the scope of its role. Thus, to maximize public safety and order, the police must be actively engaged in conducting disaster response activities. Hence, this study concentrated on the measures, including community policing, that need to be taken to enable the police to respond rapidly and effectively to disaster events, thereby minimizing losses, and to contribute meaningfully to disaster recovery efforts. Because community policing requires public cooperation, community-oriented disaster response and disaster management are closely examined. This study basically seeks to expand the scope of community policing to strengthen disaster safety. Furthermore, this study aims to assert that disaster safety can be promoted by establishing a cooperation system between the police and private security; changing how the role of community policing in disaster response activities is perceived; increasing professional manpower and establishing a comprehensive and independent department dedicated to disaster-related matters; and merging consultative organizations into one organization. Additionally, this study states that an integrated CCTV platform and police cars on disaster prevention patrol duties would enhance the capability of the police to respond to disasters and perform their community policing activities.

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