• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.127-142
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• 2004

Feedback loop dominance is a key concept to understand structural driving forces of system behavior. In this paper, we propose two kinds of shifts in dominant feedback loops: continuous shifts (CS) and discrete shifts (DS). With the help of questionnaires, we verified three hypotheses regarding cognitive biases in perceiving the shifts in dominant feedback loops: 1) failure in perceiving continuous shifts, 2) tendency of decision making based on discrete shifts, and 3) different perception on the dominant feedback loops between level variables and rate variables. We discussed the implication of these cognitive biases on time delay and timing strategy in decision-making processes.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2009년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회 학계
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• pp.209-212
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• 2009

During the last few decades, several companies and research laboratories have developed construction robots in an effort to improve productivity, quality, and reduce construction time and safety concerns. Recently, domestic construction industry is also interested in developing the construction robots. However, the studies on the research and development process is impossible in real field. A existing research's object is the development of the research on the assumption that construction's environment is a fixed form, But real construction's environment is very dynamic and atypical. So it is very difficult that we apply construction automation and robots. In order to solve this problem, this study deduce influential factors on decision making of frame construction scheduling for automated construction.

• 한국유기농업학회지
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.231-239
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to provide meaningful information for various stakeholders' decision-making process through forecasting of domestic beef demand. Three different exponential smoothing models were evaluated, and a double exponential smoothing model was used to forecast domestic beef demand based on time-series data, As a result of the forecast, domestic beef consumption is expected to increase by 37,000 to 40,000 tons per year from 2020 to 2025.

• Membrane and Water Treatment
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.65-76
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• 2023

Given the limited water resources and the presence of multiple decision makers with different and usually conflicting objectives in the exploitation of water resources systems, especially dam's reservoirs; therefore, the decision to determine the optimal allocation of reservoir water among decision-makers and stakeholders is a difficult task. In this study, by combining a fuzzy VIKOR technique or fuzzy multi-criteria decision making (FMCDM) and the Young's bilateral bargaining model, a new method was developed to determine the optimal quantitative and qualitative water allocation of dam's reservoir water with the aim of increasing the utility of decision makers and stakeholders and reducing the conflicts among them. In this study, by identifying the stakeholders involved in the exploitation of the dam reservoir and determining their utility, the optimal points on trade-off curve with quantitative and qualitative objectives presented by Mojarabi et al. (2019) were ranked based on the quantitative and qualitative criteria, and economic, social and environmental factors using the fuzzy VIKOR technique. In the proposed method, the weights of the criteria were determined by each decision maker using the entropy method. The results of a fuzzy decision-making method demonstrated that the Young's bilateral bargaining model was developed to determine the point agreed between the decisions makers on the trade-off curve. In the proposed method, (a) the opinions of decision makers and stakeholders were considered according to different criteria in the exploitation of the dam reservoir, (b) because the decision makers considered the different factors in addition to quantitative and qualitative criteria, they were willing to participate in bargaining and reconsider their ideals, (c) due to the use of a fuzzy-logic based decision-making approach and considering different criteria, the utility of all decision makers was close to each other and the scope of bargaining became smaller, leading to an increase in the possibility of reaching an agreement in a shorter time period using game theory and (d) all qualitative judgments without considering explicitness of the decision makers were applied to the model using the fuzzy logic. The results of using the proposed method for the optimal exploitation of Iran's 15-Khordad dam reservoir over a 30-year period (1968-1997) showed the possibility of the agreement on the water allocation of the monthly total dissolved solids (TDS)=1,490 mg/L considering the different factors based on the opinions of decision makers and reducing conflicts among them.

• 한국항행학회논문지
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.690-698
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• 2023

현재 수많은 공항에서는 공항 협력적 의사결정지원체계 (A-CDM; airport cooperative decision making system) 도입 후 이를 기반으로 공항 이해관계자들의 정보 공유 및 결정이 가능해졌다. 이는 곧 항공기 처리시간을 최적화하고 공항 운영의 효율성을 증가시켰다. 버티포트 또한 이러한 효율성 증대를 위한 방안이 필요하다. 기존 공항의 항공기에 비해 UAM 기체는 도심 속을 비행하는 새로운 항공교통체계로써 도심 내 교통체증을 겪지 않으면서 빠르게 이동하고 싶은 사용자의 수요가 큰 비중을 차지할 것이다. 그렇기에 지연이나 뜻하지 않은 결항은 사용자의 만족도를 크게 낮추게 된다. 이러한 점을 보완하기 위해 버티포트와 UAM의 특성에 맞게 의사결정지원체계의 기준을 수립하여 V-CDM을 도입한다면 버티포트에서의 UAM에 대한 효율적인 운영이 가능해질 것이다. 본 논문에서는 버티포트의 이해관계자를 정의하고 A-CDM을 기반으로 V-CDM이 어떤 방식으로 운영되어야 하는가에 대한 방안을 제시하였다.

• 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.55-74
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• 2005

In order to purchase a product cheaper, a lot of customers have been trying to search one or more marketplaces. Ever since the commercial use of the Internet, several types of marketplaces have been operating successfully on the Internet. Some of them are online shopping malls, auction markets, and group-buying markets. They have the price settlement mechanisms of their own. Online shopping malls where many stores are located support a customer to purchase the product that matches his/her requests such as price, function, design, and so forth. In online auction market, a customer can buy the product by making bids sequentially and competitively until a final price is reached. In online group-buying market, a customer can purchase the product by aggregating the orders from several buyers so that cheaper prices can be negotiated. The cheaper customers could purchase the same product item, the more satisfied they would be. However, it is very difficult for the customer to determine the marketplace to purchase, considering different kinds of marketplaces at the same time. Even though the purchasing price is cheapest in one marketplace, it is very difficult for customers to convince it the cheapest for all marketplaces. Therefore, rules and methods have been developed for purchase decision making in multiple marketplaces to reach the optimal purchase decision as a whole. They can maximize customer's utility and resolve the conflicts with other marketplaces through multi-agent negotiation.

• International Journal of Quality Innovation
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.131-147
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• 2003

This paper considers that a public department under specialized TQM manpower constraints have to implement multiple total quality management (TQM) policies to promote its service performance (fundamental goal) by adopting a centralized sequential advancement strategy (CSAS). Under CSAS, the decision-makers (DMs) start off by focusing specialized TQM manpower on a single policy, then transfer the specialized TQM manpower to the next policy when the first policy reaches the predetermined implementation time limit (in terms of education and training). Suppose that each TQM policy has a different desirous education and training goal. When the desirous goals for all TQM policies are achieved, we say that the fundamental goal will be satisfied. Within the limitation of total implementation period of time for all policies, assume the desirous goals for all TQM policies cannot be achieved completely. Under this premise, the optimal implementation sequence for all TQM policies must be calculated to maximize the weighted achievement of the desirous goal. We call this optimization problem a TQM case of "centralized sequential decision-making problem (CSDMP)". The achievement of the desirous goal for each TQM policy is usually affected by the experience in prior implemented policies, which makes solving CSDMP quite difficult. As a result, this paper introduces the concepts of sequential effectiveness and path effectiveness. The structural properties are then studied to propose theoretical methods for solving CSDMP. Finally, a numerical example is proposed to demonstrate CSDMP′s usability.

• 벤처창업연구
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.15-23
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• 2014

본 논문은 경영환경에 대한 불확실성 증대, 데이터 없는 최초 상황 발생, 합리적 의사결정이 불가능할 경우 등 기업환경이 변화할 때, 벤처 중소기업 경영자들은 의사결정 시 직관을 어떻게 활용하는가에 관한 사례연구다. 논문은 문헌 연구와 벤처 중소기업 경영자 16명을 심층 인터뷰하여 자료를 수집하였고, Klein, G, 의 "포괄적(generic) 멘탈 시뮬레이션 모델"로 분석하였다. 연구에 사용된 직관은 본인의 경험을 사용하는 전문가(expert) 직관과 타인의 경험도 활용하는 전략적(strategic) 직관으로 분류하였다. 사례연구 결과 경영자들은 전문가 직관과 전략적 직관을 다르게 활용하고 있었다. 전문가 직관의 특징은 별 노력 없이도 빠르게 작동하는데, 반해 전략적 직관은 시간이 많이 소요된다. 또 다른 특징은 전문가적 직관은 이미 발생된 일에 대한 의사결정에 많이 사용되고, 전략적 직관은 미래형 의사결정에 많이 활용되었다. 전략적 직관의 프로세스는 (1)전략적 관심단계 (2)매개물 발견단계 (3)1차 멘탈 시뮬레이션 단계 (4)핵심 매개변수 띄우기 단계, (4)2차 멘탈 시뮬레이션 단계 (5)내부 평가 단계 (6) 의사결정 단계를 거친다. 위에 단계를 모델링하여 벤처 중소기업 경영자들의 "전략적 직관에 의한 의사결정 모형(Strategic intuition decision-making model)"을 도출하였다. 사례분석 결과 나타난 중요한 결과는 첫째, 성공하는 의사결정 시 성공과 실패의 중요한 차이는 의사결정 프로세스 중 "2차 멘탈 시뮬레이션"에서 결정되었고, 둘째, 전문가 직관이 전략적 직관보다 많아질수록 경영의 어려움에 봉착하였으며. 셋째, 전략적 직관은 학습이 가능하다.

• 한국항만학회지
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.9-24
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• 1995

The intensification of the competition among container terminals has led to important affect such as, decision making or aggressive intervention of customers for terminal operation. Therefore, in case of developed ports, the large transition of port operation is composed of the press of terminal customer than decision making of terminal manager. Overall port tariffs for using terminal is made out by the conference of terminal customers than the supreme headquarters of terminal operation, and the related investment of terminal has been made according to requisition or proposal of customers. Therefore, among decision making problems that shippers, shipping companies, and freight forwarder among decision making problems that shippers, shipping companies, and freight forwarder face, the choice of the container terminal is one of the most important problems. So, the decision making of the users seems to have a significant impact on the competitive power of container terminals. The main objective of this study is to design port marketing strategy for strengthening the competitive power of container terminals. The results of this study were found as follows: Firstly, port authority should establish user-oriented operation policy of terminal as the means of activating the opinion window, using terminal monitoring system(TMS). Secondly, terminal planning and development of government should be made to minimize the lead time, to induce the civil capital and to utilize the economies of scale. Thirdly, port authority needs to endeavor to analyze the information of competing foreign terminals as well to promote the concentrated marketing for the terminal on the users, to train the expert and to develop the new port charge system. Fourthly, to improve the competitive power of the container terminal, Port Authority should optimize the subsystems related to port marketing, far more these systems should be joined organically to work effectively. Finally, port authority system should be introduced, Namely, port should have the enterprise inclination as well s the public inclination.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 1995년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.390-396
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• 1995