• 제목/요약/키워드: Decision theory

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의사결정이론을 이용한 박판성형공정의 최적화 (Optimization of Sheet Metal Forming Process by using Decision-Making Theory)

  • 김경모;인정제
    • 한국기계가공학회지
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.125-136
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    • 2012
  • Wrinkle and fracture are two major defects frequently found in the sheet metal forming process. In this process there are more than one design attributes to optimize and several uncontrollable factors which cannot be ignored in determining the optimal values of design variables. Therefore, attempts to reduce defects through a traditional optimization technique are often led to failures. In this research, a new design method for reducing the wrinkle and fracture under uncontrollable factors is presented by using decision-making theory. To avoid the psychological difficulties in determining the scaling constants of the multi-attribute utility function by using the ordinary lottery questions, a pair-wise comparison procedure is adapted to avoid this problem. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated through a robust design of sheet metal forming process of a side member of an automotive body.

다속성 효용이론을 이용한 평가지표개발 - 원자력연구개발사업의 사후평가를 중심으로 - (A Multi-attribute Index for Evaluating of National Nuclear R&D Projects: A Case Study of Korea)

  • 곽승준;유승훈;김찬준
    • 한국기술혁신학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국기술혁신학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회:발표자료
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    • pp.389-408
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    • 2001
  • Evaluating the results of National Nuclear R&D projects has critical importance in nuclear management aspect. This paper uses multi-attribute utility theory as a basis for obtaining a value Index to assess the results of nuclear R&D projects and applies the theory to a specific Korean case study. To structure and quantify basic values for the . evaluation, we elicited important attributes, then refined and structured them into a hierarchy. A multi-attribute index is constructed as a multi-attribute utility function, based on value judgments provided by a group of technical experts, policy makers, and decision-makers. The implications of the results are also discussed. We found that the work and results can provide valuable insights for assessment of nuclear R&D consequences.

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노후인프라 자산관리를 위한 효용이론 적용 방안 (Application of Utility Theory for Asset Management of Deteriorated Infrastructure)

  • 차용운;박원영;박태일
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2021년도 봄 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.311-312
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    • 2021
  • As the number of deteriorated infrastructures increases, research on decision-making methods for efficient budget allocation is required. Thus, this study considered the application of utility theory for asset management of deteriorated infrastructure. In decision-making, methods that enable quantitative measurement were proposed, attributing the aging, economic feasibility, and ripple effects. This study is meaningful as a basic study of decision-making methods, and we will conduct research applied to case studies in the future.

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사이버공격시 게임이론을 활용한 집단지성간 전략결정 모델 연구 - 한수원 해킹사건을 중심으로 - (Strategic Decision Making Model Among Collective Intelligences Using The Game Theory in Cyber Attacks - Case study of KHNP Hacking -)

  • 박상민;이경호;임종인
    • 정보보호학회논문지
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    • 제26권1호
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    • pp.237-246
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    • 2016
  • 최근 다양한 유형의 사이버공격이 발생하였고 공격의 전략적 목적 및 전술적 수단도 진화하고 있다. 특히 한수원 사이버공격은 해킹과 심리전을 결합시킨 핵티비즘형으로 공격자는 국민을 사이버전에 참여시키려 하였고 기밀정보 공개 및 원전중단 협박으로 정부의 의사결정을 지속적으로 강요하였다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 사이버공격시 효과적 전략결정을 도출하기 위하여 개방형 정책결정모델에 공격지성을 포함시키고 게임이론을 활용하여 연구한다.

Psychological Jump in Vague Knowledge

  • Nakatsuyama, Mikio
    • 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 1998년도 The Third Asian Fuzzy Systems Symposium
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    • pp.343-346
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    • 1998
  • This paper deals with the decision in vague knowledge, One method is a classic theory. That is to say, constraints and goals in the vague knowledge. Another method is the fuzzy catastrophe. If there exist two fuzzy variables, there may be a discontinuity which plays an important role in decision.

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Fuzzy Decision Making System

  • Karpovsky, Ephim Ja
    • 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 1993년도 Fifth International Fuzzy Systems Association World Congress 93
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    • pp.806-809
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    • 1993
  • This paper focuses on the usage of the fuzzy set theory in decision making systems. The approach to calculation of generalized membership function, based on application of method of principal components is proposed. For solving of the problem of fuzzy forecasting the development of Bayes procedure is used. The structure of decision making system, in which following procedures are fulfilled, is discussed.

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홍수터 관리 최적대안 결정을 위한 공간퍼지접근 (The Spatial Fuzzy Approach to Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Flood Management)

  • 임광섭;최시중
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2009년도 학술발표회 초록집
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    • pp.1647-1651
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    • 2009
  • The uncertainty or imprecision associated with vague parameters and weighting sets, reduces the ability to decide what alternative is better for a particular location. To efficiently reduce the effect of imprecision frequently arising in available information, fuzzy theory has been used to improve consideration of imprecision in a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) problem. Fuzzy logic offers a way to represent and handle imprecision present in continuous real world applications. A GIS implementing fuzzy set theory, (referred to in this paper as the "Spatial Fuzzy Approach") enables decision makers to express imprecise concepts associated with geographic data and provides decision makers the ability to have even more definition and discrimination in terms of the best alternatives for a particular spatial location. This study is focused on addressing questions pertaining to the methodology of floodplain analysis using GIS and Spatial Fuzzy MCDA to evaluate flood damage reduction alternatives. The issues will be examined in a case study of the Suyoung River Basin in Pusan, Korea.

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공리적 설계를 이용한 기술가치평가방법의 선정 (Technology Valuation Method Selection using Axiomatic Design)

  • 문병근;조규갑
    • 기술경영경제학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 기술경영경제학회 2003년도 제22회 동계학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.191-199
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    • 2003
  • It is critical to select an appropriate technology valuation method when the characteristics of a technology and valuation environment are variable. To ensure high quality decision making when selecting a technology valuation method, it is necessary to understand the principles of a good technology valuation method, and define and apply a decision making theory for selecting an optimal method. The authors propose that Axiomatic Design Principles can be applied as a decision making theory. In order to apply Axiomatic Design for this problem, this paper describes four domains(customer, functional, physical, and process domain) and four axioms(independence, information, cost, time axiom) for the decision making process for the optimal technology valuation method. The result of this study will contribute flexibility to the dynamic technology valuation process.

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결정도(決定圖)에 기초(基礎)한 유한체상(有限體上)의 다치논리(多値論理)시스템구성(構成)에 관한 연구(硏究) (A Study on Constructing the Multiple-Valued Logic Systems over Finite Fields using by the Decision Diagram)

  • 박춘명
    • 전기전자학회논문지
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    • 제3권2호
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    • pp.295-304
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    • 1999
  • 본 논문에서는 유한체상에서의 다치논리시스템구성을 그래프이론에 기초를 둔 결정도에 의해 구성하는 방법을 제안하였다. 제안한 방법은 먼저 다치논리 Shannon의 확장전개를 토대로 다치논리결정도를 도출하였으며, 부그래프를 적용하여 함수분할을 수행하였다. 그리고 각종 그래프의 동형관계와 정점의 재순서화를 적용하여 결정도의 변수순서선텍알고리즘과 간략화 알고리즘을 제안하였으며 이로부터 최종 다치논리시스템을 설계하는 방법을 제안하였다.

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시스템다이내믹스를 이용한 제조 또는 구매결정에 관한 연구: 방위산업을 중심으로 (Study on the Make or Buy decision using system dynamics: Defense industry)

  • 고성필;정의영;이정동
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.85-100
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    • 2014
  • We propose a composite make or buy decision model considering both the transaction cost theory and the resource based view in the Korean defense industry using System Dynamics. We analyze relationship between core variables(transaction frequency, technological uncertainty, the level of technological dependency, technological level and acquisition ability for market information) and 'Make or Buy decision' focused on technological innovation capability. Based on the result, we propose the implications as follows : First, the defence industry needs more R&D investment. Second, it needs a balance between domestic(Make) and overseas(Buy) to increase the technological capability rapidly.

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