• 제목/요약/키워드: Decision -making Tree

검색결과 197건 처리시간 0.037초

Bayesian Theorem-based Prediction of Success in Building Commissioning

  • Park, Borinara
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.523-526
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    • 2015
  • In recent years, building commissioning has often been part of a standard delivery practice in construction, particularly in the high-performance green building market, to ensure the building is designed and constructed per owner's requirements. Commissioning, therefore, intends to provide quality assurance that buildings perform as intended by the design and often helps achieve energy savings. Commissioning, however, is not as widely adopted as its potential benefits are perceived. Owners are still skeptical of the cost-effectiveness claims by energy management and commissioning professionals. One of the issues in the current commissioning practice is that not every project is guaranteed to benefit from the commissioning services. This, coupled with its added cost, the commissioning service is not acquired with great acceptance and confidence by building owners. To overcome this issue, this paper presents a unique methodology to enhance owner's predicting capability of the degree of success of commissioning service using the Bayesian theorem. The paper analyzes a situation where a future building owner wants to use a pre-commissioning in an attempt to refine the success rate of the future commissioned building performance. The author proposes the Bayesian theorem based framework to improve the current commissioning practice where building owners are not given accurate information how much successful their projects are going to be in terms of energy savings from the commissioning service. What should be provided to the building owners who consider their buildings to be commissioned is that they need some indicators how likely their projects benefit from the commissioning process. Based on this, the owners can make better informed decisions whether or not they acquire a commissioning service.

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RSSI 판독 라이브러리 함수 및 옥내 측위 모듈 구현 (Implementation of a Library Function of Scanning RSSI and Indoor Positioning Modules)

  • 임재걸;정승환;심규박
    • 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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    • 제10권11호
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    • pp.1483-1495
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    • 2007
  • IEEE 802.11 기술 덕분에 학교와 대형 쇼핑몰을 비롯한 사무실, 병원, 역 등지에서도 무선 LAN을 통한 인터넷 접속이 가능하다. 본 논문은 무선 LAN에 현재 가장 많이 사용되는 2.4GHz 대역의 802.11b와 802.11g 프로토콜이 탑재된 액세스포인트(AP: Access Point)로부터 수신한 신호의 세기(RSSI: Received Signal Strength Indicator)를 판독할 수 있는 C# 라이브러리 함수를 제안한다. 위치기반서비스는 사용자의 현재 위치를 실시간으로 측정하여 현재 위치를 기반으로 길을 안내하거나, 현재 위치와 관련한 콘텐츠를 제공하는 등의 유용한 서비스를 제공한다. 옥내에서 위치기반서비스를 제공하려면 옥내에 있는 사용자의 위치를 판정하는 옥내측위가 반드시 선결되어야 한다. 옥내측위 기술로 적외선, 초음파, UDP 패킷의 신호세기 등을 이용하는 방법들이 소개된 바 있다. 이러한 방법들은 측위를 위한 특수 장비를 설비해야만 한다는 단점이 있다. 본 논문은 RSSI를 판독하는 라이브러리 함수를 제공할 뿐만 아니라 제공하는 함수를 이용한 옥내 측위 구현 예도 소개한다. 구현에 적용된 방법들은 이미 널리 알려진 K-NN(K Nearest Neighbors), 베이시안 방법 그리고 삼각측량법이다. K-NN 방법과 베이시안 방법은 일종의 지문방식인데, 지문방식은 준비단계와 실시간단계로 구성되며, 실시간 단계의 처리 과정은 처리속도가 빨라야만 한다. 본 논문은 실시간 단계의 속도를 개선하는 방법으로 판단나무 방법(Decision Tree Method)을 제안하고, 이러한 방법들의 성능을 실험적으로 평가한 결과를 소개한다.

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Predicting Surgical Complications in Adult Patients Undergoing Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion Using Machine Learning

  • Arvind, Varun;Kim, Jun S.;Oermann, Eric K.;Kaji, Deepak;Cho, Samuel K.
    • Neurospine
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.329-337
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    • 2018
  • Objective: Machine learning algorithms excel at leveraging big data to identify complex patterns that can be used to aid in clinical decision-making. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the performance of machine learning models in predicting postoperative complications following anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF). Methods: Artificial neural network (ANN), logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest decision tree (RF) models were trained on a multicenter data set of patients undergoing ACDF to predict surgical complications based on readily available patient data. Following training, these models were compared to the predictive capability of American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification. Results: A total of 20,879 patients were identified as having undergone ACDF. Following exclusion criteria, patients were divided into 14,615 patients for training and 6,264 for testing data sets. ANN and LR consistently outperformed ASA physical status classification in predicting every complication (p < 0.05). The ANN outperformed LR in predicting venous thromboembolism, wound complication, and mortality (p < 0.05). The SVM and RF models were no better than random chance at predicting any of the postoperative complications (p < 0.05). Conclusion: ANN and LR algorithms outperform ASA physical status classification for predicting individual postoperative complications. Additionally, neural networks have greater sensitivity than LR when predicting mortality and wound complications. With the growing size of medical data, the training of machine learning on these large datasets promises to improve risk prognostication, with the ability of continuously learning making them excellent tools in complex clinical scenarios.

A Novel Action Selection Mechanism for Intelligent Service Robots

  • Suh, Il-Hong;Kwon, Woo-Young;Lee, Sang-Hoon
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 제어로봇시스템학회 2003년도 ICCAS
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    • pp.2027-2032
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    • 2003
  • For action selection as well as learning, simple associations between stimulus and response have been employed in most of literatures. But, for a successful task accomplishment, it is required that an animat can learn and express behavioral sequences. In this paper, we propose a novel action-selection-mechanism to deal with sequential behaviors. For this, we define behavioral motivation as a primitive node for action selection, and then hierarchically construct a network with behavioral motivations. The vertical path of the network represents behavioral sequences. Here, such a tree for our proposed ASM can be newly generated and/or updated, whenever a new sequential behaviors is learned. To show the validity of our proposed ASM, three 2-D grid world simulations will be illustrated.

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Statistical Location Estimation in Container-Grown Seedlings Based on Wireless Sensor Networks

  • Lee, Sang-Hyun;Moon, Kyung-Il
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • 제2권2호
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    • pp.15-18
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    • 2014
  • This paper presents a sensor location decision making method respect to Container-Grown Seedlings in view of precision agriculture (PA) when sensors involved in tree container measure received signal strength (RSS) or time-of-arrival (TOA) between themselves and neighboring sensors. A small fraction of sensors in the container-grown seedlings system have a known location, whereas the remaining locations must be estimated. We derive Rao-Cramer bounds and maximum-likelihood estimators under Gaussian and log-normal models for the TOA and RSS measurements, respectively.

A Fuzzy Approach to Social Worker's Turnover Intention

  • Jang, Yun-Jeong
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.165-169
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    • 2010
  • This study seeks to find the factors associated with social workers' turnover intention and show us how to manage turnovers by looking for some rules affecting turnover intentions. Our investigation surveying 331 social workers reveals that social workers' turnover intentions are affected by organizational commitment, job satisfaction, and burnout. Our pattern analyses using fuzzy ID3 show that the higher their commitment, the higher their job satisfaction stemming from promotion opportunities, rewards, and personal relations with peers and bosses. In addition, turnover intentions decreases (even if burnouts--the job-related stress--are very serious) when organizational commitment increases. We come to understand that organizational commitment could be a more important variable than job satisfaction and burnouts. Such results suggest that it would be necessary to consider how to improve social workers' organization-wide commitment rather than satisfaction and burnout related to jobs and environments.

만성 성인성 치주염 치료시 비외과적, 외과적 방법에 대한 의사결정 (Decision Making on the Non surgical, Surgical Treatment on Chronic Adult Periodontitis)

  • 송시은;이승원;조규성;채중규;김종관
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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    • 제28권4호
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    • pp.645-660
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    • 1998
  • The purpose of this study was to make and ascertain a decision making process on the base of patient-oriented utilitarianism in the treatment of patients of chronic adult periodontitis. Fifty subjects were chosen in Yonsei Dental hospital and the other fifty were chosen in Severance dental hospital according to the selection criteria. Fifty four patients agreed in this study. NS group(N=32) was treated with scaling and root planing without any surgical intervention, the other S group(N=22) done with flap operation. During the active treatment and healing time, all patients of both groups were educated about the importance of oral hygiene and controlled every visit to the hospital. When periodontal treatment needed according to the diagnostic results, some patients were subjected to professional tooth cleaning and scaling once every 3 months according to an individually designed oral hygienic protocol. Probing depth was recorded on baseline and 18 months after treatments. A questionnaire composed of 6 kinds(hygienic easiness, hypersensitivity, post treatment comfort, complication, functional comfort, compliance) of questions was delivered to each patient to obtain the subjective evaluation regarding the results of therapy. The decision tree for the treatment of adult periodontal disease was made on the result of 2 kinds of periodontal treatment and patient's ubjective evaluation. The optimal path was calculated by using the success rate of the results as the probability and utility according to relative value and the economic value in the insurance system. The success rate to achieve the diagnostic goal of periodontal treatment as the remaining pocket depth less than 3mm and without BOP was $0.83{\pm}0.12$ by non surgical treatment and $0.82{\pm}0.14$ by surgical treatment without any statistically significant difference. The moderate success rate of more than 4mm probing pocket depth were 0.17 together. The utilities of non-surgical treatment results were 100 for a result with less than 3mm probing pocket depth, 80 for the other results with more than 4mm probing pocket depth, 0 for the extraction. Those of surgical treatment results were the same except 75 for the results with more than 4mm. The pooling results of subjective evaluation by using a questionnaire were 60% for satisfaction level and 40% for no satisfaction level in the patient group receiving nonsurgical treatment and 33% and 67% in the other group receiving surgical treatment. The utilities for 4 satisfaction levels were 100, 75, 60, 50 on the base of that the patient would express the satisfaction level with normal distribution. The optimal path of periodontal treatment was rolled back by timing the utility on terminal node and the success rate, the distributed ratio of patient's satisfaction level. Both results of the calculation was non surgical treatment. Therefore, it can be said that non-surgical treatment may be the optimal path for this decision tree of treatment protocol if the goal of the periodontal treatment is to achieve the remaining probing pocket depth of less than 3mm for adult chronic periodontitis and if the utilitarian philosophy to maximise the expected utility for the patients is advocated.

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정수계획법을 이용한 산림경영계획의 수립방안 연구 (A Forest Management Planning Method based on Integer Programming)

  • 원현규;김형호;정세경;우종춘
    • 한국산림과학회지
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    • 제95권6호
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    • pp.729-734
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    • 2006
  • 이 연구는 정수계획법을 이용하여 산림경영계획을 수립하기 위한 의사결정방법을 도출하고자 수행되었다. 연구대상은 강원대학교 연습림의 잣나무, 낙엽송, 참나무림으로 구성된 85개소의 임분으로 무육, 도태간벌, 상업적 간벌, 주벌의 최적기에 도달한 상태이다. 산림경영모델은 계획기간동안 수종별, 시업종류별로 각 임분에서 별채되는 재적을 최대화하는 1개의 목적함수와 시업횟수 시업대상지 최소수확량과 최대수확량 균등수확량 최대생산량 의사결정변수의 제한 등 7개의 제약조건으로 구성되었다. 계획기간은 10년으로 하였고 5개의 경영분기로 구분하였다. 정수계획법을 이용한 결과, 계획기간동안 85개 임분 중에서 68개 임분 (202.8ha)에 대해 산림시업을 실행하고 17개 임분(9.2ha)은 시업이 유보되며, 총 벌채재적은 $20,000m^3$으로 시업 및 벌채여부 판단과 같은 특정조건의 선택문제를 다룰수 있었다.

미 연준 통화정책방향 의결문의 시그널링 효과 분석 (An analysis of the signaling effect of FOMC statements)

  • 우신욱;장영재
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.321-334
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    • 2020
  • 최근 미 연준이 정책금리 인하를 결정하면서 향후 통화정책 운용방향에 관해 관심이 고조되고 있다. 과거 금리동결 시점이나 동결기간 중, 그리고 인상이나 인하 시점이 다가왔을 때 통화정책 의결문의 표현을 살펴보면 단어 선택의 변화 등을 통해 시장과 꾸준하게 커뮤니케이션해 왔었다는 것을 알 수 있다. 하지만 이렇게 의결문의 표현을 문맥을 통해 분석하는 방법이 다소 주관적이고 정성적인 분석에 그칠 수 있다는 비판이 있다. 이런 점을 고려하여 Woo와 Chang (2016)에서는 데이터마이닝 기법 중 하나인 텍스트마이닝 방법을 통해 의결문 분석 과정을 보완할 수 있는 방법을 제안한 바 있다. 본 논문에서는 선행 연구 결과를 토대로 미 연준의 통화정책 의결문의 정책 시그널링 효과를 평가해 보았다. 의결문의 특성을 텍스트마이닝 관점에서 분석하고 의결문 간 표현의 변화를 포착하여 향후 정책 기조 변화를 예측하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 대표적인 데이터마이닝 기법인 의사결정나무모형과 신경망모형을 사용하였다. 분석 결과, 대체로 의결문 간 비유사성의 변화가 향후 정책 변화를 효과적으로 예측할 수 있는 것으로 평가되었으며, 그동안 미 연준이 의결문을 통해 체계적으로 정책 시그널링을 실시해 온 결과로 판단할 수 있다.