• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.493-510
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• 2020

Purpose: As of July 31, there were 14,336 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea, including 301 deaths. Since the daily confirmed number of cases hit 909 on February 29, the spread of the disease had gradually decreased due to the active implementation of preventive control interventions, and the daily confirmed number had finally recorded a single digit on April 19. Since May, however, the disease has re-emerged and retaining after June. In order to eradicate the disease, it is necessary to suggest suitable forward preventive strategies by predicting future infectivity of the disease based on the cases so far. Therefore, in this study, we aim to evaluate the transmission potential of the disease in early phases by estimating basic reproduction number and assess the preventive control measures through effective reproduction number. Methods: We used publicly available cases and deaths data regarding COVID-19 in South Korea as of July 31. Using ensemble model integrated stochastic linear birth model and deterministic linear growth model, the basic reproduction number and the effective reproduction number were estimated. Results: Estimated basic reproduction number is 3.1 (95% CI: 3.0-3.2). Effective reproduction number was the highest with 7 on February 15, decreased as of April 20. Since then, the value is gradually increased to more than unity. Conclusion: Preventive policy such as wearing a mask and physical distancing campaigns in the early phase of the outbreak was fairly implemented. However, the infection potential increased due to weakening government policy on May 6. Our results suggest that it seems necessary to implement a stronger policy than the current level.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.16
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• pp.6903-6908
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• 2015

Background: As smoking is the leading preventable cause of multiple diseases and premature cancer deaths, estimating the burden of cancer attributable to smoking has become the standard in documenting the adverse impact of smoking. In Indonesia, there is a dearth of studies assessing the economic costs of cancers related to smoking. This study aimed to estimate indirect mortality costs of premature cancer deaths and years of potential life lost (YPLL) attributable to smoking among the Indonesian population. Materials and Methods: A prevalence based method was employed. Using national data, we estimated smoking-attributable cancer mortality in 2013. Premature mortality costs and YPLL were estimated by calculating number of cancer deaths, life expectancy, annual income, and workforce participation rate. A human capital approach was used to calculate the present value of lifetime earnings (PVLE). A discount rate of 3% was applied. Results: The study estimated that smoking attributable cancer mortality was 74,440 (30.6% of total cancer deaths), comprised of 95% deaths in men and 5% in women. Cancers attributed to smoking wereresponsible for 1,207,845 YPLL. Cancer mortality costs caused by smoking accounted for USD 1,309 million in 2013. Among all cancers, lung cancer is the leading cause of death and economic burden. Conclusions: Cancers related to smoking pose an enormous economic burden in Indonesia. Therefore, tobacco control efforts need to be prioritized in order to prevent more losses to the nation. The data of this study are important for advocating national tobacco control policy.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.123-128
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• 2002

Objective : To examine the relationship between cigarette smoking, alcohol and cancer mortality in men in the Kangwha cohort after 12 years and 10 months of follow up. Methods : The subjects consisted of 2,681 men in the Kangwha cohort aged over 55 in 1985. Number of deaths and the time to death front all cancers and other cause were measured and the data for the smoking and drinking habits were obtained from the baseline survey data in 1985. All subjects were categorized into four groups according to their smoking habits: non-smokers, ex-smokers, mode(ate-smokers (1-19 cigarettes per day), heavy-smokers ($\geq$20 cigarettes per day). In addition, they were also categorized according to their drinking habits: non-drinkers, light-drinkers ($\leq$1 drink per week), moderate-drinkers (<3 drinks per day), heavy-drinkers ($\geq$3 drinks per day). The cancer specific death rates were calculated according to their smoking and drinking status. The adjusted risk ratio for all cancer deaths according to their smoking and drinking status were estimated using the Cox's proportional hazard regression model. Results : Using nonsmokers as the reference category, the adjusted risk ratio for all cancer deaths were 1.573(95% CI=1.003-2.468) for heavy-smokers. For lung cancer deaths, the adjusted risk ratios were 3.540(95% CI=1.251-10.018) for moderate-smoker and 4.114(95% CI=1.275-13.271) for heavy-smokers. Compared to non-drinkers, the adjusted risk ratio for stomach cancer was 2.204(95% CI=1.114-4.361) for light-drinkers. Conclusion : Smoking is the most significant risk factor for cancer deaths particularly lung cancer.

• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.355-365
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• 2008

Synoptic and climatological characteristics of heat waves over Korea and Europe as well as their biometeorological impacts were compared. In July of 1994, excess deaths of about 2,388 in the population of South Korea are estimated by the modified excess death calculation algorithm ofKysely (2004). The excess deaths correspond to the net mortality increase of 12.5% in July of 1994 if we compare the estimated value to the expected number of deaths in this month (i.e., about 19,171). The comparative study of heat waves in Korea and Europe shows that the record-breaking heat waves in both regions are closely associated with prolonged droughts. In particular, reduction of soil moisture, precipitation and cloud cover and enhancement of insolation during the drought periods are very likely to be related to the increase in the intensity and the duration ofheat waves. Climate models predict that the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves in the 21 st century will be greatly enhanced in both areas. In order to reduce the biometeorological and socioeconomic impacts due to heat waves, not only the development of heat-related mortality prediction model that can be widely applied to many climate regimes, but also studies on the climatological association between extreme temperatures and abnormal hydrological cycle are needed.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.103-122
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• 1992

The objective of this research is to develop a traffic accident forecasting model using traffic accident data in pusan from 1963 to 1991 and then to make short-term forecasts('93~'94) of traffic accidents in pusan. In this research, several forecasting models are developed. They include a multiple regression model, a time-series ARIMA model, a Logistic curve model, and a Gompertz curve model. Among them, the model which shows the most significance in forecasting accuracy is selected as the traffic accident forecasting model. The results of this research are as followings. 1. The existing model such as Smeed model which was developed for foreign countries shows only 47.8% explanation for traffic accident deaths in Korea. 2. A nonliner regression model ($R^2$=0.9432) and a Logistic curve model are appeared to be th gest forecasting models for the number of traffic accidents, and a Logistic curve model shows th most significance in predicting the accident deaths and injuries. 3. The forecasting figures of the traffic accidents in pusan are as followings: . In 1993, 31, 180 accidents are predicted to happen, and 430 persons are predicted to be deaths and 29, 680 persons are predicated to be injuries. . In 1994, 33, 710 accidents are predicted to happen, and 431.persons are predicted to be deat! and 30, 510 persons are predicted to be injuried. Therefore, preventive measures against traffic accidents are certainly required.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.7
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• pp.121-127
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• 2021

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on exchange rates of the top ten currencies according to their trading value with Thailand by employing a regression analysis. Data includes daily number of COVID-19 cases - confirmed, new, deaths - and exchange rates against Thai Baht - CNY, JPY, USD, MYR, SGD, VND, IDR, AUD, HKD, TWD - which cover the period from January 2, 2020 to December 15, 2020. Results show that the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Thailand relate to changes in all exchange rates; CNY, MYR, SGD, VND, AUD, and TWD have depreciated in relation to the THB, whereas JPY, USD, IDR, and HKD have appreciated. Furthermore, the new cases and deaths of COVID-19 have similar associations with almost all exchange rates. Deprecation of the JPY, USD, VND, HKD, and TWD in relation to the THB is due to new cases, on the contrary the MYR, IDR, and AUD have appreciated. Likewise, the JPY, USD, VND, and HKD have depreciated, but the CNY, MYR, SGD, and AUD have appreciated in relation to the THB owing to deaths cases. The study findings provide useful knowledge to manage an exchange rate risk for business and could help policymakers to improve the efficiency of exchange rate.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.sup3
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• pp.101-105
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• 2016

The number of deaths is often measured to monitor the population health status and priority of health problems. However, number of years of life lost (YLL) is a more appropriate indicator in some cases. We have calculated the YLL of adult cancers and its trend over the past few years in Yazd to provide planners with baseline data. Data obtained from death registration system were used to calculate the YLL, based on each individual's age at death, and the standardized expected YLL method was applied with a discount rate of 0.03, an age weight of 0.04, and a correction factor of 0.165. All data were analyzed and prepared in Epi6 and Excel 2007. A total of 3,850 death records were analyzed. Some 550 patients in Yazd province aged ${\geq}20$ die annually due to cancer (male: female ratio 1.3). The average ages at death in lung, CNS, breast cancer and leukemia cases were 68.5, 59, 58.7 and 61, respectively. The age group of 40-59 with 21 % had the highest cancer mortality percentage. Premature cancer deaths have caused 40,753 YLL (5,823 YLL annually). Females lose on average more life years to cancer than do men (11.6 vs 9.8 years). Lung cancer (12.1%), CNS tumors (11.7%) and leukemia (11.4 %) were the leading causes terms of YLL due to all cancers in both sexes. From 2004 to 2010, cancer-caused YLL as a fraction of all YLL increased from 12.8 to 15.2 %. This study can help in the assessment of health care needs and prioritization. Cancer is the major cause of deaths and the trend is increasing. The use of YLLs is a better index for measurement of premature mortality for ranking of diseases than is death counts. Longer periods of observation will make these trends more robust and will help to evaluate and develop, better public health interventions.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.161-174
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• 2000

The total number of deaths and total sojourn times of African honey bees are studied using semi-markov compartment analysis. This generalizes many existing biological models.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.327-339
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to present the effective smoke control flow rate and mode for securing safety through quantitative risk assessment according to the smoke control flow rate and mode (supply or exhaust) of the platform when a train fire occurs at the subway platform. To this end, a fire outbreak scenario was created using a side platform with a central staircase as a model and fire analysis was performed for each scenario to compare and analyze fire propagation characteristics and ASET, evacuation analysis was performed to predict the number of deaths. In addition, a fire accident rate (F)/number of deaths (N) diagram (F/N diagram) was prepared for each scenario to compare and evaluate the risk according to the smoke control flow rate and mode. In the ASET analysis of harmful factors, carbon monoxide, temperature, and visible distance determined by performance-oriented design methods and standards for firefighting facilities, the effect of visible distance is the largest, In the case where the delay in entering the platform of the fire train was not taken into account, the ASET was analyzed to be about 800 seconds when the air flow rate was 4 × 833 m³/min. The estimated number of deaths varies greatly depending on the location of the vehicle of fire train, In the case of a fire occurring in a vehicle adjacent to the stairs, it is shown that the increase is up to three times that of the vehicle in the lead. In addition, when the smoke control flow rate increases, the number of fatalities decreases, and the reduction rate of the air supply method rather than the exhaust method increases. When the supply flow rate is 4 × 833 m³/min, the expected number of deaths is reduced to 13% compared to the case where ventilation is not performed. As a result of the risk assessment, it is found that the current social risk assessment criteria are satisfied when smoke control is performed, and the number of deaths is the flow rate 4 × 833 m³/min when smoke control is performed at 29.9 people in 10,000 year, It was analyzed that it decreased to 4.36 people.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.1845-1850
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• 2015

Background: Cancer is recently one of the major concerns of the public health both in the world and Iran. To inform priorities for cancer control, this study estimated years of potential life lost (YPLL) and productivity losses due to cancer-related premature mortality in Iran in 2012. Materials and Methods: The number of cancer deaths by sex for all cancers and the ten leading causes of cancer deaths in Iran in 2012 were obtained from the GLOBOCAN database. The life expectancy method and the human capital approach were used to estimate the YPLL and the value of productivity lost due to cancer-related premature mortality. Results: There were 53,350 cancer-related deaths in Iran. We estimated that these cancer deaths resulted in 1,112,680 YPLL in total, 563,332 (50.6%) in males and 549,348 (49.4%) in females. The top 10 ranked cancers accounted for 75% of total death and 70% of total YPLL in the males and 69% for both death and YPLL in the females. The largest contributors for YPLL in the two genders were stomach and breast cancers, respectively. The total cost of lost productivity due to cancer-related premature mortality discounted at 3% rate in Iran, was US$ 1.93 billion. The most costly cancer for the males was stomach, while for the females it was breast cancer. The percentage of the total costs that were attributable to the top 10 cancers was 67% in the males and 71% in the females. Conclusions: The YPLL and productivity losses due to cancer-related premature mortality are substantial in Iran. Setting resource allocation priorities to cancers that occur in younger working-age individuals (such as brain and central nervous system) and/or cancers with high incidence and mortality rates (such as stomach and breast) could potentially decrease the productivity losses and the YPLL to a great extent in Iran.