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A Study on Development of Forecasting Model for Traffic Accident in Korea (한국의 교통사고예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 이일병;임헌정
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.73-88
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    • 1990
  • This study aims to develop a traffic accident forecasting model using the data, which are based on the past accidents in Korea. The regression analysis was used in conjuction with the variables of the traffic accidents and social behaviours. The objectives of this study are as follows; 1. The number of behicles has given a strong affect to increase the traffic accidents in Korea since a factor of vehicles has shown 86% over of total accidents. 2. The forecasting model regarding the traffic accidents, deaths and injuries, which was formulated for this study, proved to be useful in light of the results of the regression diagnostics. 3. It is expected that the traffic accidents in Korea in 1991 may take place as follows on condition that the traffic environment would worsen ; 274,000 cases of accidents with 13,600 deaths and 367,000 injuries, in 1994, 451,000 cases with 24,900 deaths and 71,500 injuries respectively.

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Characteristics of Heat wave Mortality in Korea (우리나라 폭염 인명피해 발생특징)

  • Kim, Do-Woo;Chung, Jea-Hak;Lee, Jong-Seol;Lee, Ji-Sun
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.225-234
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    • 2014
  • Analysis of the cause of death (Statistics Korea) showed that heat wave caused 442 deaths (21 per a year) from 1991 to 2011 in Korea. The number of summer heat-related deaths (heat disorders) increased exponentially as heat wave prolonged. In 1994 when the extreme heat wave prevailed, there were 92 heat-related deaths. Seasonally, heat-related deaths occurred most frequently in early August when air temperature is highest for a year, but it is frequent as well in late July when air temperature increases rapidly after withdrawal of Changma. The frequency of deaths by age has begun to increase from 40s and more than half of total deaths were occurred in the elderly (${\geq}60$). Except retired elderly, the most vulnerable group (job and age) was the elderly agricultural workers and the next was the jobless people in 40 s~50 s, assumed as homeless people. The most vulnerable regions were Hapcheon-gun, Uiryong-gun, and Sanchen-gun, which are inland rural area in Gyeongsang-do where the heat wave occurs most frequently in Korea. The heat-related death rate increased rapidly when air temperature exceeded $33^{\circ}C$ in both of the urban and rural area. Interestingly, the heat-related death were observed in the relatively lower temperature in the cities ($29^{\circ}C$), as compare to the rural area ($31^{\circ}C$).

Development of a Manual for Simulation Training in Preparation for the Fall Disasters of Urban Residential Housing Construction Works and Apply (도시형 생활주택신축공사의 추락재해 발생대비 모의훈련 실시 매뉴얼 개발 및 적용)

  • Kim, Sung Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.39-49
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    • 2021
  • According to the recent "Status of Industrial Accidents at the End of December 2020" released by the Ministry of Employment and Labor, each industry is subject to industrial accidents. The number of accident deaths by construction industry, accident deaths by accident type fell, and accident deaths by workplace size were 5 to 49, indicating that most accident deaths occurred due to falling accidents at small construction sites. Therefore, urban living houses are small construction sites, and the probability of falling accidents is very high. Fall simulation training for disaster occurrence is conducted mainly by large construction ordering organizations in the public sector, and it is the first case in Korea that a housing construction company has conducted at a small construction site. This study analyzed and presented the definition, construction characteristics, and safety management status of urban living houses, and developed and spread an emergency relief procedure manual in the event of a fall accident to minimize deaths.

Mortality Attributable to Second Hand Smoking in Morocco: 2012 Results of a National Prevalence Based Study

  • Tachfouti, Nabil;Najdi, Adil;Lyoussi, Badiaa;Nejjari, Chakib
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.2827-2832
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: To estimate the number of deaths attributable to second hand smoking (SHS) in Morocco in 2012. Materials and Methods: prevalence based study focusing on mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and lung cancer among non-smokers aged 35 and over. Prevalence of SHS among never smokers was gathered from a national cross sectional survey on tobacco and population attributable risk (PAR) was calculated by applying PARs to mortality. The analyses were stratified by sex, age and area of exposure. Results: Rates for exposure to SHS among men aged 35-64 years ranged from 20.0% at home to 57.4% at work. Among non-smoking Moroccans aged 35 and over, 233 (IC: 147 - 246) deaths were attributable to exposure to SHS; 156 (IC: 100 - 221) in women and 77 (IC: 44 -125) in men. A total of 173 (122 - 222) deaths were estimated to have been caused by exposure only at home, 34 (9 - 76) by exposure only at the work place and 26 (15 - 58) by exposure both at home and work places. Exposure to SHS could be responsible for 182 (128 - 237) deaths from IHD and 51 (19 - 109) from lung cancer. Conclusions: These data confirm that SHS needs urgent attention in Morocco.

The Domestic Research Trend and the Road Map of Health Risk Assessment of the Air Quality in Korea (대기환경부문 건강위해평가의 국내 연구 동향과 발전방향)

  • Shin, Dong Chun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.528-535
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    • 2013
  • Air pollution in large cities is reduced through the environmental health policies, but due to increased population and automobile, some pollutants are still a problem. These air pollutants are known to cause asthma and respiratory diseases. According to an OECD report, the number of premature deaths will increase. Hazardous air pollutants should be managed through a systematic monitoring, risk assessment, and many studies are in progress. In order to manage hazardous air pollutants, transformation of policy for the protection of human health is required. management policy through the calculation of the excess number of deaths that occur from hazardous air pollutants for the public health is necessary. Korea has put a lot of efforts for air quality, but health risk assessment should be more considered.

Modeling Exponential Growth in Population using Logistic, Gompertz and ARIMA Model: An Application on New Cases of COVID-19 in Pakistan

  • Omar, Zara;Tareen, Ahsan
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.192-200
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    • 2021
  • In the mid of the December 2019, the virus has been started to spread from China namely Corona virus. It causes fatalities globally and WHO has been declared as pandemic in the whole world. There are different methods which can fit such types of values which obtain peak and get flattened by the time. The main aim of the paper is to find the best or nearly appropriate modeling of such data. The three different models has been deployed for the fitting of the data of Coronavirus confirmed patients in Pakistan till the date of 20th November 2020. In this paper, we have conducted analysis based on data obtained from National Institute of Health (NIH) Islamabad and produced a forecast of COVID-19 confirmed cases as well as the number of deaths and recoveries in Pakistan using the Logistic model, Gompertz model and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) model. The fitted models revealed high exponential growth in the number of confirmed cases, deaths and recoveries in Pakistan.

Effects of the Severe Asian Dust Events on Daily Mortality during the Spring of 2002, in Seoul, Korea (2002년 봄 서울 지역에 발생한 심한 황사가 일별 사망에 미치는 영향)

  • Hwang, Seung-Sik;Kwon, Ho-Jang;Cho, Soo-Hun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.197-202
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    • 2005
  • Objectives: During the spring of 2002, an unprecedented 2 Asian dust events were experienced in Seoul. On those days, the $PM_{10}$ was surprisingly increased, with daily $PM_{10}$ averages exceeding $600\;and\;700{\mu}g/m^3$ on March 21 and April 8, respectively. Accordingly, public concern relating to the possible adverse health effects of these dust events has increased, as the dust arrives in Korea after having flown over heavily industrialized eastern China. We investigated the effects of these Asian dust events on the mortality during the spring of 2002, in Seoul, Korea. Methods: The total number of deaths per day during the spring of 2002 in Seoul was extracted form the mortality records of the National Statistical Office. We constructed 14 Asian dust days (March 17-March 23, April 7-April 13) and 42 control days during the 56 day study period (March 3-April 27) with respect to the days of the week. The daily average numbers of deaths between the Asian dust and control days were analyzed, with adjustment for meteorological variables and pollutants. Results: The daily PM10 average during the Asian dust weeks was $295.2{\mu}g/m^3$, which was significantly higher than during the control days (p<0.001). The daily average number of deaths from all causes during the Asian dust days was 109.9; 65.6 for those aged 65 years and older, 6.7 from respiratory causes (J00-J99) and 25.6 from cardiovascular causes (I00-I99). The estimated percentage increases in the rate of deaths were 2.5% (95% CI=-5.0-10.6) from all causes; 2.2% (95% CI=-7.4-12.8) for those aged 65 years and older, and 36.5% (95% CI=0.7-85.0) from respiratory causes, but with a 6.1% (95% CI=-19.7-9.7) decrease in deaths from cardiovascular causes. Conclusion: The Asian dust events were found to be weakly associated with the risk of death from all causes. However, the association between dust events and deaths from respiratory causes was stronger. This suggests that persons with advanced respiratory diseases may be susceptible to Asian dust events.

An Observation on the Incidence of Drowning Death in Korea (익사(溺死) ($WHO-E_{929},\;E_{934}$)의 역학적(疫學的) 관찰(觀察))

  • Chee, Chang-Yong;Kim, Young-Chun;Lee, Byung-Joo;Chu, In-Ho
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.79-86
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    • 1968
  • This paper describes the incidence and some epidemiological features of drowning accident out of a series of our study on the epidemiology of various accidents in Korea. By the daily press it is apparent from the frequent reporting of swimming accidents that the incidence would be high. In the rural areas, there are, at present, about 1,250 artificial lakes and farm ponds to be utlized for rice production. The reservoirs, irrigation ditches and riversides are also used for recreation. In most places facilities for aquatic activities is meager, and safety measures for the prevention of drowning is not sufficiently enforced. In the survey crude data on drownings were collected from the concerned governmental statistic books for the period 1955 to 1967 which were compiled not in a uniform way. Drownings were classfied into two categories, one is accidental drowning, E 929 and the other is due to cataclysm, E 934, according to the WHO international classification of diseases. Epidemiological variables in relation to drowning accident were obtained through qualitative analysis of informations from the popular news papers. The following summary may be drawn; 1. The average number of deaths due to accidental drowning totaled 1,088 annually and the mortality rate per 100,000 population was 3.4, The 42.0% of all drownings were rescued and the remaining were not saved. 2. The sex ratio (M/F) of the victims for all ages was 5 to 1, which had a wide range of difference among the age groups. The young ages less than 20 years occupied 68.0% of all deaths. 3. The percentage distribution of the causes of accidents revealed 31.9% for careless swimming, 45.5% for unskilled, 10.6% for swimmer's cramp and 6.0% for drunked. The distribution of places where accidents occurred showed 88.0% for rivers, water reservoirs, irrigation ditches and 12.0% for regular swimming pools. The seasonal distribution of cases indicated 85.0% of the total were seen during the summer months, June-August, and 50.0% of them occurred on Sundays, 4. The average annual deaths due to cataclysm were 402 and mortality rate per 100,000 population was 1.6, but the number of victims due to cataclysm varied greatly each year. 5. The accident cases due to cataclysm were classified into 60.0% for injuries, 40.0% for deaths. The 26.8% of all deaths were missing cases. 6. The deaths due to either accidental drowning or cataclysm totaled 1,490, and the death rate per 100,000 for the whole country was 5.0.

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Determinats of Fertility Behavior Among Self-Employed Korean Women (자영업에 종사하는 기혼여성의 출산행위에 관한 연구)

  • 김한곤
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 1988
  • The subjects used in this study were chosen from self-employed women in Taegu City, Korea, Data for 415 respondents were collected by face-to-face interviews conducted during the period of November 10 through 23, 1987. There are three major purposes in this study : first, to describe the general characteristics of self-employed Korean women's fertility behavior ; second, to examine the determinants of fertility behavior among self-employed women : third, to explore the relative importance of the fertility determinants among the women. Regression analyses were introduced to test hypotheses. Nine variables, such as household income, educational attainment, mass media, abortion, the period of contraception practice, contraceptive expenses, the number of infant, deaths marital period, and age at first marriage were introduced as indicators in the regression. The results of this study show that there are negative relationships between the dependent variable of fertility and abortion, and the period of contraception practice. On the other hand, positive relationships between the dependent variable of fertility and the number of infant deaths, and marital period and age at first marriage are shown in this study. However, the results of this study show that there are insignificant relationships between socioeconomic variables and fertility. From the results of the F test to evaluate the significance of difference in $R^2$between two different regression equations, we have found that the regression equation including both socioeconomic variables and intermediate variables is misspecified to examine the determinants of fertility behavior among self-employed Korean women. That is, the F test shows that the regression equation including only intermediate variables as indicators is the best model for this study. Finally, the relative importance of the fertility determinants among self-employed women is found as follows : Age at the first marriage is the most influential variable in the fertility, and the next important factors are abortion, the period of contraception practice, the number of infant deaths, and marital period, in that order.

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Development of Smart Safety Sensors to Prevent Falling and Contact Accidents at Construction Sites (건설현장의 추락 및 접촉사고 방지를 위한 스마트 세이프티 센서 개발)

  • Lee, Juhee;Ahn, Joseph
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2021
  • According to the Korea Occupational Safety and Health Agency's (KOSHA) report on industrial accident statistics over the past four years, the number of casualties at construction sites from 2017 to June 2020 was about 93,158 and the number of deaths was about 1,977, showing a high trend of safety accidents among the eight major occupational groups, with the construction industry ranking third in total and the death rate being the highest in total. Among them, the number of deaths caused by falls in the entire occupational category is about 1,267, the highest rate of deaths due to contact is about 522, which is a frequent safety accident among the top three accident types. This paper aims to help reduce the overall proportion of construction safety accidents by developing smart safety sensing devices using ultrasonic sensors to prevent two types of safety accidents, which have the highest rate of occurrence among various types of safety accidents occurring at construction sites.