• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.47-54
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• 2021

한국산업안전보건공단의 산업재해통계 보고서 최근 4년 동안의 자료를 확인하면 2017년부터 2020년 6월까지 건설현장의 재해자 수가 약 93,158명, 사망자 수가 약 1,977명으로 건설업이 재해율 총 3위, 사망률 총 1위로 높은 안전사고 추이를 보이고 있다. 그 중에서도 전체 직업군에서 추락으로 인한 사망사고 및 접촉으로 인한 사망사고는 전체 사고 유형 중 3위 안으로 빈번하게 발생하는 안전사고이다. 본 논문은 건설현장의 다양한 유형의 안전사고 중 발생 비율이 가장 높은 추락과 접촉 사고 두 유형의 안전사고를 예방하기 위해 초음파 센서를 이용한 스마트 감지 장치를 개발하여 직접 현장 작업자가 경험하게 한 결과, 설문참여 작업자의 69.5%이상이 센서의 현장 적용성에 대해 긍정적으로 평가하였으며, 이를 토대로 건설업 안전사고의 전체 비율을 감소하는데 일조 하고자 한다.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제48권3호
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• pp.493-510
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• 2020

Purpose: As of July 31, there were 14,336 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea, including 301 deaths. Since the daily confirmed number of cases hit 909 on February 29, the spread of the disease had gradually decreased due to the active implementation of preventive control interventions, and the daily confirmed number had finally recorded a single digit on April 19. Since May, however, the disease has re-emerged and retaining after June. In order to eradicate the disease, it is necessary to suggest suitable forward preventive strategies by predicting future infectivity of the disease based on the cases so far. Therefore, in this study, we aim to evaluate the transmission potential of the disease in early phases by estimating basic reproduction number and assess the preventive control measures through effective reproduction number. Methods: We used publicly available cases and deaths data regarding COVID-19 in South Korea as of July 31. Using ensemble model integrated stochastic linear birth model and deterministic linear growth model, the basic reproduction number and the effective reproduction number were estimated. Results: Estimated basic reproduction number is 3.1 (95% CI: 3.0-3.2). Effective reproduction number was the highest with 7 on February 15, decreased as of April 20. Since then, the value is gradually increased to more than unity. Conclusion: Preventive policy such as wearing a mask and physical distancing campaigns in the early phase of the outbreak was fairly implemented. However, the infection potential increased due to weakening government policy on May 6. Our results suggest that it seems necessary to implement a stronger policy than the current level.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권16호
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• pp.6903-6908
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• 2015

Background: As smoking is the leading preventable cause of multiple diseases and premature cancer deaths, estimating the burden of cancer attributable to smoking has become the standard in documenting the adverse impact of smoking. In Indonesia, there is a dearth of studies assessing the economic costs of cancers related to smoking. This study aimed to estimate indirect mortality costs of premature cancer deaths and years of potential life lost (YPLL) attributable to smoking among the Indonesian population. Materials and Methods: A prevalence based method was employed. Using national data, we estimated smoking-attributable cancer mortality in 2013. Premature mortality costs and YPLL were estimated by calculating number of cancer deaths, life expectancy, annual income, and workforce participation rate. A human capital approach was used to calculate the present value of lifetime earnings (PVLE). A discount rate of 3% was applied. Results: The study estimated that smoking attributable cancer mortality was 74,440 (30.6% of total cancer deaths), comprised of 95% deaths in men and 5% in women. Cancers attributed to smoking wereresponsible for 1,207,845 YPLL. Cancer mortality costs caused by smoking accounted for USD 1,309 million in 2013. Among all cancers, lung cancer is the leading cause of death and economic burden. Conclusions: Cancers related to smoking pose an enormous economic burden in Indonesia. Therefore, tobacco control efforts need to be prioritized in order to prevent more losses to the nation. The data of this study are important for advocating national tobacco control policy.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.123-128
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• 2002

Objective : To examine the relationship between cigarette smoking, alcohol and cancer mortality in men in the Kangwha cohort after 12 years and 10 months of follow up. Methods : The subjects consisted of 2,681 men in the Kangwha cohort aged over 55 in 1985. Number of deaths and the time to death front all cancers and other cause were measured and the data for the smoking and drinking habits were obtained from the baseline survey data in 1985. All subjects were categorized into four groups according to their smoking habits: non-smokers, ex-smokers, mode(ate-smokers (1-19 cigarettes per day), heavy-smokers ($\geq$20 cigarettes per day). In addition, they were also categorized according to their drinking habits: non-drinkers, light-drinkers ($\leq$1 drink per week), moderate-drinkers (<3 drinks per day), heavy-drinkers ($\geq$3 drinks per day). The cancer specific death rates were calculated according to their smoking and drinking status. The adjusted risk ratio for all cancer deaths according to their smoking and drinking status were estimated using the Cox's proportional hazard regression model. Results : Using nonsmokers as the reference category, the adjusted risk ratio for all cancer deaths were 1.573(95% CI=1.003-2.468) for heavy-smokers. For lung cancer deaths, the adjusted risk ratios were 3.540(95% CI=1.251-10.018) for moderate-smoker and 4.114(95% CI=1.275-13.271) for heavy-smokers. Compared to non-drinkers, the adjusted risk ratio for stomach cancer was 2.204(95% CI=1.114-4.361) for light-drinkers. Conclusion : Smoking is the most significant risk factor for cancer deaths particularly lung cancer.

• 대기
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.355-365
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• 2008

Synoptic and climatological characteristics of heat waves over Korea and Europe as well as their biometeorological impacts were compared. In July of 1994, excess deaths of about 2,388 in the population of South Korea are estimated by the modified excess death calculation algorithm ofKysely (2004). The excess deaths correspond to the net mortality increase of 12.5% in July of 1994 if we compare the estimated value to the expected number of deaths in this month (i.e., about 19,171). The comparative study of heat waves in Korea and Europe shows that the record-breaking heat waves in both regions are closely associated with prolonged droughts. In particular, reduction of soil moisture, precipitation and cloud cover and enhancement of insolation during the drought periods are very likely to be related to the increase in the intensity and the duration ofheat waves. Climate models predict that the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves in the 21 st century will be greatly enhanced in both areas. In order to reduce the biometeorological and socioeconomic impacts due to heat waves, not only the development of heat-related mortality prediction model that can be widely applied to many climate regimes, but also studies on the climatological association between extreme temperatures and abnormal hydrological cycle are needed.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.103-122
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• 1992

The objective of this research is to develop a traffic accident forecasting model using traffic accident data in pusan from 1963 to 1991 and then to make short-term forecasts('93~'94) of traffic accidents in pusan. In this research, several forecasting models are developed. They include a multiple regression model, a time-series ARIMA model, a Logistic curve model, and a Gompertz curve model. Among them, the model which shows the most significance in forecasting accuracy is selected as the traffic accident forecasting model. The results of this research are as followings. 1. The existing model such as Smeed model which was developed for foreign countries shows only 47.8% explanation for traffic accident deaths in Korea. 2. A nonliner regression model ($R^2$=0.9432) and a Logistic curve model are appeared to be th gest forecasting models for the number of traffic accidents, and a Logistic curve model shows th most significance in predicting the accident deaths and injuries. 3. The forecasting figures of the traffic accidents in pusan are as followings: . In 1993, 31, 180 accidents are predicted to happen, and 430 persons are predicted to be deaths and 29, 680 persons are predicated to be injuries. . In 1994, 33, 710 accidents are predicted to happen, and 431.persons are predicted to be deat! and 30, 510 persons are predicted to be injuried. Therefore, preventive measures against traffic accidents are certainly required.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권7호
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• pp.121-127
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• 2021

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on exchange rates of the top ten currencies according to their trading value with Thailand by employing a regression analysis. Data includes daily number of COVID-19 cases - confirmed, new, deaths - and exchange rates against Thai Baht - CNY, JPY, USD, MYR, SGD, VND, IDR, AUD, HKD, TWD - which cover the period from January 2, 2020 to December 15, 2020. Results show that the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Thailand relate to changes in all exchange rates; CNY, MYR, SGD, VND, AUD, and TWD have depreciated in relation to the THB, whereas JPY, USD, IDR, and HKD have appreciated. Furthermore, the new cases and deaths of COVID-19 have similar associations with almost all exchange rates. Deprecation of the JPY, USD, VND, HKD, and TWD in relation to the THB is due to new cases, on the contrary the MYR, IDR, and AUD have appreciated. Likewise, the JPY, USD, VND, and HKD have depreciated, but the CNY, MYR, SGD, and AUD have appreciated in relation to the THB owing to deaths cases. The study findings provide useful knowledge to manage an exchange rate risk for business and could help policymakers to improve the efficiency of exchange rate.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권sup3호
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• pp.101-105
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• 2016

The number of deaths is often measured to monitor the population health status and priority of health problems. However, number of years of life lost (YLL) is a more appropriate indicator in some cases. We have calculated the YLL of adult cancers and its trend over the past few years in Yazd to provide planners with baseline data. Data obtained from death registration system were used to calculate the YLL, based on each individual's age at death, and the standardized expected YLL method was applied with a discount rate of 0.03, an age weight of 0.04, and a correction factor of 0.165. All data were analyzed and prepared in Epi6 and Excel 2007. A total of 3,850 death records were analyzed. Some 550 patients in Yazd province aged ${\geq}20$ die annually due to cancer (male: female ratio 1.3). The average ages at death in lung, CNS, breast cancer and leukemia cases were 68.5, 59, 58.7 and 61, respectively. The age group of 40-59 with 21 % had the highest cancer mortality percentage. Premature cancer deaths have caused 40,753 YLL (5,823 YLL annually). Females lose on average more life years to cancer than do men (11.6 vs 9.8 years). Lung cancer (12.1%), CNS tumors (11.7%) and leukemia (11.4 %) were the leading causes terms of YLL due to all cancers in both sexes. From 2004 to 2010, cancer-caused YLL as a fraction of all YLL increased from 12.8 to 15.2 %. This study can help in the assessment of health care needs and prioritization. Cancer is the major cause of deaths and the trend is increasing. The use of YLLs is a better index for measurement of premature mortality for ranking of diseases than is death counts. Longer periods of observation will make these trends more robust and will help to evaluate and develop, better public health interventions.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.161-174
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• 2000

The total number of deaths and total sojourn times of African honey bees are studied using semi-markov compartment analysis. This generalizes many existing biological models.

• 한국터널지하공간학회 논문집
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.327-339
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• 2022

본 연구에서는 지하철 승강장에서 열차화재가 발생하는 경우, 승강장 제연풍량 및 제연모드(급기 또는 배기)에 따른 정량적 위험도 평가를 통해 안전확보에 효과적인 제연풍량 및 모드를 제시함을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 중앙계단을 갖는 상대식 승강장을 모델로 하여 화재발생 시나리오를 작성하였으며, 시나리오별 화재해석을 수행하여 연기전파특성과 ASET을 비교·분석하고 대피해석을 수행하여 사망자수를 예측하였다. 또한, 시나리오별로 화재사고 발생률(F)/사망자수(N)선도(F/N선도)를 작성하여 제연풍량 및 제연모드에 따른 위험도를 비교·평가하였다. 소방시설 등의 성능위주 설계 방법 및 기준에서 정하는 유해요소(일산화탄소, 온도, 가시거리)에 대한 ASET 분석에서는 가시거리의 영향이 가장 크게 나타나고 있으며, 화재열차의 승강장 진입지연을 고려하지 않은 경우에 풍량을 4 × 833 m³/min할 때 ASET은 약 800초 정도로 분석되었다. 예상사망자수는 화재차량위치에 따라 큰 차이가 있으며, 계단부에 인접한 차량에서 화재가 발생하는 경우에 선두부 차량대비 3배 까지 증가하는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 또한 제연풍량이 증가하면 사망자수가 감소하며 배기 보다는 급기방식이 감소율이 증가한다. 급기풍량이 4 × 833 m³/min일 때 예상 사망자수는 제연을 수행하지 않는 경우 대비 13%수준으로 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 위험도 평가결과, 제연을 수행하는 경우에는 현행 사회적 위험도 평가기준을 만족하는 것으로 나타나고 있으며, 예상사망자수는 제연을 수행하지 않는 경우, 10,000년에 29.9명에서 제연을 수행하는 경우에는 풍량이 4 × 833 m³/min일 때 4.36명으로 감소하는 것으로 분석되었다.