• Title/Summary/Keyword: Data-Driven Prediction Model

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Development of Prediction Models of Dressroom Surface Condensation - A nodal network model and a data-driven model - (드레스룸 표면 결로 발생 예측 모델 개발 - 노달 모델과 데이터 기반 모델 -)

  • Ju, Eun Ji;Lee, June Hae;Park, Cheol-Soo;Yeo, Myoung Souk
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.169-176
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    • 2020
  • The authors developed a nodal network model that simulates the flow of moist air and the thermal behavior of a target area. The nodal network model was enhanced using a parameter estimation technique based on the measured temperature, humidity, and schedule data. However, the nodal model is not good enough for predicting humidity of the target space, having 55.6% of CVRMSE. It is because re-evaporation effect could not be modeled due to uncertain factors in the field measurement. Hence, a data-driven model was introduced using an artificial neural network (ANN). It was found that the data-driven model is suitable for predicting the condensation compared to the nodal model satisfying ASHRAE Guideline with 3.36% of CVRMSE for temprature, relative humidity, and surface temperature on average. The model will be embedded in automated devices for real-time predictive control, to minimize the risk of surface condensation at dressroom in an apartment housing.

Evaluation of Nonlinear κ-ε Models on Prediction Performance of Turbulence-Driven Secondary Flows (난류에 의해 야기되는 이차유동 예측성능에 대한 비선형 κ-ε 난류모델의 평가)

  • Myong, Hyon-Kook
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.27 no.8
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    • pp.1150-1157
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    • 2003
  • Nonlinear relationship between Reynolds stresses and the rate of strain of nonlinear k-$\varepsilon$models is evaluated theoretically by using the boundary layer assumptions against the turbulence-driven secondary flows in noncircular ducts and then their prediction performance is validated numerically through the application to the fully developed turbulent flow in a square duct. Typical predicted quantities such as mean axial and secondary velocities, turbulent kinetic energy and Reynolds stresses are compared with available experimental data. The nonlinear k-$\varepsilon$ model adopted in a commercial code is found to be unable to predict accurately duct flows with the prediction level of secondary flows one order less than that of the experiment.

Preliminary Uncertainty Analysis to Build a Data-Driven Prediction Model for Water Quality in Paldang Dam (팔당댐 유역의 데이터 기반 수질 예측 모형 구성을 위한 사전 불확실성 분석)

  • Lee, Eun Jeong;Keum, Ho Jun
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.24-35
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    • 2022
  • For water quality management, it is necessary to continuously improve the forecasting by analyzing the past water quality, and a Data-driven model is emerging as an alternative. Because the Data-driven model is built based on a wide range of data, it is essential to apply the correlation analysis method for the combination of input variables to obtain more reliable results. In this study, the Gamma Test was applied as a preceding step to build a faster and more accurate data-driven water quality prediction model. First, a physical-based model (HSPF, EFDC) was operated to produce daily water quality reflecting the complexity of the watershed according to various hydrological conditions for Paldang Dam. The Gamma Test was performed on the water quality at the water quality prediction site (Paldangdam2) and major rivers flowing into the Paldang Dam, and the method of selecting the optimal input data combination was presented through the analysis results (Gamma, Gradient, Standar Error, V-Ratio). As a result of the study, the selection criteria for a more efficient combination of input data that can save time by omitting trial and error when building a data-driven model are presented.

Data-driven SIRMs-connected FIS for prediction of external tendon stress

  • Lau, See Hung;Ng, Chee Khoon;Tay, Kai Meng
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.55-71
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents a novel harmony search (HS)-based data-driven single input rule modules (SIRMs)-connected fuzzy inference system (FIS) for the prediction of stress in externally prestressed tendon. The proposed method attempts to extract causal relationship of a system from an input-output pairs of data even without knowing the complete physical knowledge of the system. The monotonicity property is then exploited as an additional qualitative information to obtain a meaningful SIRMs-connected FIS model. This method is then validated using results from test data of the literature. Several parameters, such as initial tendon depth to beam ratio; deviators spacing to the initial tendon depth ratio; and distance of a concentrated load from the nearest support to the effective beam span are considered. A computer simulation for estimating the stress increase in externally prestressed tendon, ${\Delta}f_{ps}$, is then reported. The contributions of this paper is two folds; (i) it contributes towards a new monotonicity-preserving data-driven FIS model in fuzzy modeling and (ii) it provides a novel solution for estimating the ${\Delta}f_{ps}$ even without a complete physical knowledge of unbonded tendons.

Bayesian forecasting approach for structure response prediction and load effect separation of a revolving auditorium

  • Ma, Zhi;Yun, Chung-Bang;Shen, Yan-Bin;Yu, Feng;Wan, Hua-Ping;Luo, Yao-Zhi
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.507-524
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    • 2019
  • A Bayesian dynamic linear model (BDLM) is presented for a data-driven analysis for response prediction and load effect separation of a revolving auditorium structure, where the main loads are self-weight and dead loads, temperature load, and audience load. Analyses are carried out based on the long-term monitoring data for static strains on several key members of the structure. Three improvements are introduced to the ordinary regression BDLM, which are a classificatory regression term to address the temporary audience load effect, improved inference for the variance of observation noise to be updated continuously, and component discount factors for effective load effect separation. The effects of those improvements are evaluated regarding the root mean square errors, standard deviations, and 95% confidence intervals of the predictions. Bayes factors are used for evaluating the probability distributions of the predictions, which are essential to structural condition assessments, such as outlier identification and reliability analysis. The performance of the present BDLM has been successfully verified based on the simulated data and the real data obtained from the structural health monitoring system installed on the revolving structure.

Evaluation of Nonlinear Models on Predicting Turbulence-Driven Secondary Flow (난류에 의해 야기되는 이차유동 예측에 관한 비선형 난류모형의 평가)

  • Myong, Hyon-Kook
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2003.04a
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    • pp.1814-1820
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    • 2003
  • Nonlinear relationship between Reynolds stresses and the rate of strain of nonlinear ${\kappa}-{\epsilon}$ models is evaluated theoretically by using the boundary layer assumptions against the turbulence-driven secondary flows in noncircular ducts and then their prediction performance is validated numerically through the application to the fully developed turbulent flow in a square duct. Typical predicted quantities such as mean axial and secondary velocities, turbulent kinetic energy and Reynolds stresses are compared with available experimental data. The nonlinear model adopted in a commercial code is found to be unable to predict accurately duct flows with the prediction level of secondary flows one order less than that of the experiment.

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Development of Coil Breakage Prediction Model In Cold Rolling Mill

  • Park, Yeong-Bok;Hwang, Hwa-Won
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.1343-1346
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    • 2005
  • In the cold rolling mill, coil breakage that generated in rolling process makes the various types of troubles such as the degradation of productivity and the damage of equipment. Recent researches were done by the mechanical analysis such as the analysis of roll chattering or strip inclining and the prevention of breakage that detects the crack of coil. But they could cover some kind of breakages. The prediction of Coil breakage was very complicated and occurred rarely. We propose to build effective prediction modes for coil breakage in rolling process, based on data mining model. We proposed three prediction models for coil breakage: (1) decision tree based model, (2) regression based model and (3) neural network based model. To reduce model parameters, we selected important variables related to the occurrence of coil breakage from the attributes of coil setup by using the methods such as decision tree, variable selection and the choice of domain experts. We developed these prediction models and chose the best model among them using SEMMA process that proposed in SAS E-miner environment. We estimated model accuracy by scoring the prediction model with the posterior probability. We also have developed a software tool to analyze the data and generate the proposed prediction models either automatically and in a user-driven manner. It also has an effective visualization feature that is based on PCA (Principle Component Analysis).

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Clustering-based identification for the prediction of splitting tensile strength of concrete

  • Tutmez, Bulent
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2009
  • Splitting tensile strength (STS) of high-performance concrete (HPC) is one of the important mechanical properties for structural design. This property is related to compressive strength (CS), water/binder (W/B) ratio and concrete age. This paper presents a clustering-based fuzzy model for the prediction of STS based on the CS and (W/B) at a fixed age (28 days). The data driven fuzzy model consists of three main steps: fuzzy clustering, inference system, and prediction. The system can be analyzed directly by the model from measured data. The performance evaluations showed that the fuzzy model is more accurate than the other prediction models concerned.

Integrity Prediction Model of Data-driven Diesel Generator for Naval Vessels (함정 디젤발전기 데이터기반 건전성 예측모델에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dongjin;Shim, Jaesoon;Kim, Mingon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.98-103
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    • 2019
  • Integrity prediction of the operation equipment of naval vessels is essential to maintain the efficiency of the operation performance in urgent situations. Recently, the integrated condition assessment system(ICAS) was introduced and maintained to improve operational performance. This technology is related with ICAS, and it must be localized through extensive research. In this paper, we present the results of applying the data-driven model to the predictability methods of diesel generators, which are naval vessel operation equipment.

Predictive Model for Evaluating Startup Technology Efficiency: A Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Approach Focusing on Companies Selected by TIPS, a Private-led Technology Startup Support Program

  • Jeongho Kim;Hyunmin Park;JooHee Oh
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.167-179
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    • 2024
  • This study addresses the challenge of objectively evaluating the performance of early-stage startups amidst limited information and uncertainty. Focusing on companies selected by TIPS, a leading private sector-driven startup support policy in Korea, the research develops a new indicator to assess technological efficiency. By analyzing various input and output variables collected from Crunchbase and KIND (Korea Investor's Network for Disclosure System) databases, including technology use metrics, patents, and Crunchbase rankings, the study derives technological efficiency for TIPS-selected startups. A prediction model is then developed utilizing machine learning techniques such as Random Forest and boosting (XGBoost) to classify startups into efficiency percentiles (10th, 30th, and 50th). The results indicate that prediction accuracy improves with higher percentiles based on the technical efficiency index, providing valuable insights for evaluating and predicting startup performance in early markets characterized by information scarcity and uncertainty. Future research directions should focus on assessing growth potential and sustainability using the developed classification and prediction models, aiding investors in making data-driven investment decisions and contributing to the development of the early startup ecosystem.