• 대한조선학회논문집
• /
• 제61권5호
• /
• pp.359-369
• /
• 2024

Data-driven model for estimating fuel oil consumption in seaways is suggested using the model test results and operation data. The data-driven model requires the forecasted wind speed, direction, and the desired ship speed as inputs to predict the engine speed, power, and fuel oil consumption. The structure of the data-driven model is based on the deterministic model of added power of a similar vessel of which model test results in the calm water and head seas are accessible. For a given wind speed, the wind resistance and added resistance in irregular waves presented by Pierson-Moskowitz spectrum are computed to be applied to the propulsion performance prediction. The deterministic model takes a cubic approximation between the wind speed and engine speed. The model is tuned by actual operation data in seaways with various wind direction groups. The shaft power and fuel oil consumption estimation are added to the model to be validated with the operation data. The prediction model is validated with the operation data to confirm that the estimation of the engine speed is the most significant uncertainty source.

• 대한건축학회논문집:구조계
• /
• 제36권3호
• /
• pp.169-176
• /
• 2020

The authors developed a nodal network model that simulates the flow of moist air and the thermal behavior of a target area. The nodal network model was enhanced using a parameter estimation technique based on the measured temperature, humidity, and schedule data. However, the nodal model is not good enough for predicting humidity of the target space, having 55.6% of CVRMSE. It is because re-evaporation effect could not be modeled due to uncertain factors in the field measurement. Hence, a data-driven model was introduced using an artificial neural network (ANN). It was found that the data-driven model is suitable for predicting the condensation compared to the nodal model satisfying ASHRAE Guideline with 3.36% of CVRMSE for temprature, relative humidity, and surface temperature on average. The model will be embedded in automated devices for real-time predictive control, to minimize the risk of surface condensation at dressroom in an apartment housing.

• 대한기계학회논문집B
• /
• 제27권8호
• /
• pp.1150-1157
• /
• 2003

Nonlinear relationship between Reynolds stresses and the rate of strain of nonlinear k-$\varepsilon$models is evaluated theoretically by using the boundary layer assumptions against the turbulence-driven secondary flows in noncircular ducts and then their prediction performance is validated numerically through the application to the fully developed turbulent flow in a square duct. Typical predicted quantities such as mean axial and secondary velocities, turbulent kinetic energy and Reynolds stresses are compared with available experimental data. The nonlinear k-$\varepsilon$ model adopted in a commercial code is found to be unable to predict accurately duct flows with the prediction level of secondary flows one order less than that of the experiment.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
• /
• 제9권1호
• /
• pp.24-35
• /
• 2022

수질분야에서 물재해 안정성 강화를 위해 과거와 현재의 수질을 분석하여 예측하는 기술을 지속적으로 고도화하는 것이 필요하며 데이터 기반의 예측 모형이 하나의 대안으로 대두되고 있다. 데이터 기반 모형은 복잡하고 광범위한 자료의 양을 기반으로 구축되기 때문에 보다 신뢰도 있는 결과를 얻을 수 있는 입력자료의 조합을 위한 상관관계 분석방법의 적용이 필수적이다. 본 연구에서는 보다 신속하고 정확한 데이터 기반의 수질 예측 모형을 구성하기 위한 선행단계로 Gamma Test를 적용하였다. 먼저 팔당댐의 다양한 수문조건에 따른 해당 유역의 복잡성과 정밀성이 재현된 과거와 현재의 일단위 수질을 최대한 확보하고자 물리적 기반 모형 (HSPF, EFDC)을 구동하였다. 팔당댐 수질예측지점과 팔당댐으로 유입되는 주요 하천의 수질을 대상으로 Gamma Test를 수행한 후 해석결과 (Gamma, Gradient, Standar Error, V-Ratio)를 통해 최적의 자료조합을 선정하는 방법을 제시하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 데이터 기반 모형 구축 시 반복적인 수행과정을 생략하여 시간을 단축하면서 보다 효율적으로 최적의 입력자료를 선정할 수 있는 정량적인 기준을 보여준다.

• Computers and Concrete
• /
• 제15권1호
• /
• pp.55-71
• /
• 2015

This paper presents a novel harmony search (HS)-based data-driven single input rule modules (SIRMs)-connected fuzzy inference system (FIS) for the prediction of stress in externally prestressed tendon. The proposed method attempts to extract causal relationship of a system from an input-output pairs of data even without knowing the complete physical knowledge of the system. The monotonicity property is then exploited as an additional qualitative information to obtain a meaningful SIRMs-connected FIS model. This method is then validated using results from test data of the literature. Several parameters, such as initial tendon depth to beam ratio; deviators spacing to the initial tendon depth ratio; and distance of a concentrated load from the nearest support to the effective beam span are considered. A computer simulation for estimating the stress increase in externally prestressed tendon, ${\Delta}f_{ps}$, is then reported. The contributions of this paper is two folds; (i) it contributes towards a new monotonicity-preserving data-driven FIS model in fuzzy modeling and (ii) it provides a novel solution for estimating the ${\Delta}f_{ps}$ even without a complete physical knowledge of unbonded tendons.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• 제24권4호
• /
• pp.507-524
• /
• 2019

A Bayesian dynamic linear model (BDLM) is presented for a data-driven analysis for response prediction and load effect separation of a revolving auditorium structure, where the main loads are self-weight and dead loads, temperature load, and audience load. Analyses are carried out based on the long-term monitoring data for static strains on several key members of the structure. Three improvements are introduced to the ordinary regression BDLM, which are a classificatory regression term to address the temporary audience load effect, improved inference for the variance of observation noise to be updated continuously, and component discount factors for effective load effect separation. The effects of those improvements are evaluated regarding the root mean square errors, standard deviations, and 95% confidence intervals of the predictions. Bayes factors are used for evaluating the probability distributions of the predictions, which are essential to structural condition assessments, such as outlier identification and reliability analysis. The performance of the present BDLM has been successfully verified based on the simulated data and the real data obtained from the structural health monitoring system installed on the revolving structure.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한기계학회 2003년도 춘계학술대회
• /
• pp.1814-1820
• /
• 2003

Nonlinear relationship between Reynolds stresses and the rate of strain of nonlinear ${\kappa}-{\epsilon}$ models is evaluated theoretically by using the boundary layer assumptions against the turbulence-driven secondary flows in noncircular ducts and then their prediction performance is validated numerically through the application to the fully developed turbulent flow in a square duct. Typical predicted quantities such as mean axial and secondary velocities, turbulent kinetic energy and Reynolds stresses are compared with available experimental data. The nonlinear model adopted in a commercial code is found to be unable to predict accurately duct flows with the prediction level of secondary flows one order less than that of the experiment.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 제어로봇시스템학회 2005년도 ICCAS
• /
• pp.1343-1346
• /
• 2005

In the cold rolling mill, coil breakage that generated in rolling process makes the various types of troubles such as the degradation of productivity and the damage of equipment. Recent researches were done by the mechanical analysis such as the analysis of roll chattering or strip inclining and the prevention of breakage that detects the crack of coil. But they could cover some kind of breakages. The prediction of Coil breakage was very complicated and occurred rarely. We propose to build effective prediction modes for coil breakage in rolling process, based on data mining model. We proposed three prediction models for coil breakage: (1) decision tree based model, (2) regression based model and (3) neural network based model. To reduce model parameters, we selected important variables related to the occurrence of coil breakage from the attributes of coil setup by using the methods such as decision tree, variable selection and the choice of domain experts. We developed these prediction models and chose the best model among them using SEMMA process that proposed in SAS E-miner environment. We estimated model accuracy by scoring the prediction model with the posterior probability. We also have developed a software tool to analyze the data and generate the proposed prediction models either automatically and in a user-driven manner. It also has an effective visualization feature that is based on PCA (Principle Component Analysis).

• Computers and Concrete
• /
• 제6권2호
• /
• pp.155-165
• /
• 2009

Splitting tensile strength (STS) of high-performance concrete (HPC) is one of the important mechanical properties for structural design. This property is related to compressive strength (CS), water/binder (W/B) ratio and concrete age. This paper presents a clustering-based fuzzy model for the prediction of STS based on the CS and (W/B) at a fixed age (28 days). The data driven fuzzy model consists of three main steps: fuzzy clustering, inference system, and prediction. The system can be analyzed directly by the model from measured data. The performance evaluations showed that the fuzzy model is more accurate than the other prediction models concerned.

• 한국추진공학회지
• /
• 제23권4호
• /
• pp.98-103
• /
• 2019

함정 운용 장비의 건전성 예측은 유지보수의 효율성 및 긴박한 상황에서의 운용성능 유지를 위한 필수 요소이다. 최근 함정의 양적인 증가와 작전반경 확대에 따라 운용성능 유지를 위해 통합조건평가시스템(ICAS)을 도입하여 운용중이며, 관련기술 국산화를 위해 다각도로 연구가 진행되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 함정 운용 장비인 디젤발전기의 건전성 예측방법 중 데이터기반 모델 적용에 대한 결과를 제시 하였다.