• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.493-493
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• 2017

부유사 수리실험에서 부유사의 농도를 측정하는 것은 불확실성이 매우 크다. Einstein(1950)은 유사의 pickup function 결정에서 이러한 불확실성 때문에 유사입자의 거동을 발생시키는 양력의 확률을 적용하기도 하였다. 일반적으로 부유사의 측정은 부유사 채집기를 통해 수행하지만, 시간적으로 비효율 적이며, 채집 시 채집기의 부피로 인한 난류 발생으로 채집 후 흐름 변화가 발생할 수 있다. 수리실험의 규모라면 이 문제는 더욱 부각될 수 있다. 연속적인 부유사의 농도 측정을 위해 이러한 점은 개선되어야 하는 문제이다. 본 연구에서는 유사 실험의 이러한 단점을 극복하고자 image processing 기법을 적용하였다. Image processing은 부유사의 농도가 증가할수록 탁도가 증가하는 특성을 이용하여, 부유사 농도를 추정하는 방법이다. 이 과정에서 RGB(Red-Green-Blue)로 색을 표시하는 방식에서 image를 변환하여 gray scale로 전환해야 하며, 파(wave)의 전파에 의한 image 결과의 변형은 없다고 가정하였다. Gray scale과 탁도와의 관계를 도출하기 위해 하상에 유사를 포설하고, 단파(surge)를 발생 시켰다. 실험은 길이 12.0m, 폭 0.8m, 높이 0.75m의 개수로에서 수행하였으며, 수로 상류에 sluice형 gate를 급격하게 개방하는 것으로 단파를 재현하였다. 탁도 측정을 위해 유사 채집기를 이용하였으며, 상기에서 제시한 흐름 교란문제로, 1지점에서 1개의 시간동안만 채집을 수행하였으며, image의 촬영을 병행하였다. 또한 data의 정확도를 높이기 위해 3번의 반복실험을 수행하였다. 실험결과 gray scale과 탁도와는 일정한 관계가 나타났으며, 이를 토대로 gray scale-SSC(suspended sediment concentration)와의 관계를 도출하였다. Bayesian 분석을 이용하여 image processing의 보정(확률적 보정)을 추가적으로 수행하였다. 최종적으로 실측한 값과 image processing을 통한 값을 1:1 curve를 통해 비교하였으며, 약 9%의 평균 오차가 발생하여, image processing과 bayesian 적용을 통한 부유사 농도 측정은 신뢰할 만한 결과를 도출하는 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.65-76
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• 2016

Self-adaptive software is software that adapts by itself to system requirements about the recognized problems without stopping the software cycle. In order to reduce the unnecessary adaptation in the system having the critical points, we propose proactive approach which can predict the future operation after a critical point. In this paper, we predict the future operation after a critical point using a hybrid model to deal with the characteristics of the observed data with the linear and non-linear pattern. The operation of the prediction method is determined on a timing decision indicator based on the prediction accuracy. The two main points of contributions of this paper are to reduce uncertainty about the future operation by predicting the situation after a critical point using hybrid model and to reduce unnecessary adaptation implementation by deciding a timing based on a timing decision indicator.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.83-97
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• 2021

Background: The lifetime risk of lung cancer incidence due to radiation for nonsmokers is overestimated because of the use of the average cancer baseline risk among a mixed population, including smokers. In recent years, the generalized multiplicative (GM)-excess relative risk (ERR) model has been developed in the life span study of atomic bomb survivors to consider the joint effect of radiation and smoking. Based on this background, this paper discusses the issues of radiation risk assessment considering smoking in two parts. Materials and Methods: In Part 1, we proposed a simple method of estimating the baseline risk for nonsmokers using current smoking data. We performed sensitivity analysis on baseline risk estimation to discuss the birth cohort effects. In Part 2, we applied the GM-ERR model for Japanese smokers to calculate lifetime attributable risk (LAR). We also performed a sensitivity analysis using other ERR models (e.g., simple additive (SA)-ERR model). Results and Discussion: In Part 1, the lifetime baseline risk from mixed population including smokers to nonsmokers decreased by 54% (44%-60%) for males and 24% (18%-29%) for females. In Part 2, comparison of LAR between SA- and GM-ERR models showed that if the radiation dose was ≤200 mGy or less, the difference between these ERR models was within the standard deviation of LAR due to the uncertainty of smoking information. Conclusion: The use of mixed population for baseline risk assessment overestimates the risk for lung cancer due to low-dose radiation exposure in Japanese males.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.111-133
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• 2021

Purpose - Although remittance payment in international trade settlements has played a bigger role in recent years, scant research is being done. This study is to zero in on analyzing determinants of international trade payments focused on remittance by constructing a payment prediction model. Design/methodology - This study categorizes the types of trade payments into advance remittance, post remittance, linked remittance, letter of credit, and mixed payment, and analyzes these after constructing a logit model. For empirical analysis, 147 survey data were collected for export manufacturers in Korea, and binominal logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the type of payment method the exporter chooses for trade transactions. Findings - The likelihood of choosing advance remittance increased as the exporters had non-recovery experiences with payments, and decreased as the market power of importers increased. The possibility of post remittance increased when the export amount was large and the character of the buyer was reliable. In the case of linked remittance, it was highly likely to be selected when payment efficiency was important in trade settlement. In addition, when competition among companies in the global market is intense and market uncertainty is high, the possibility of using a letter of credit decreases. It was also found that the greater the export amount, the greater the possibility of choosing advance remittance, and even if the transaction period was longer, exporters using a letter of credit continued to use it. Originality/value - Despite the high proportion of remittances in international trade settlements, it has been hard to find studies that reflect the practical characteristics of remittances. This study classified the types of remittance into advance remittance, post remittance, and linked remittance, and built a trade payment prediction model by adding a letter of credit and mixed payment. In addition, the originality of this study is recognized in that a logistic model was constructed and meaningful results were derived.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.51-57
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• 2010

Recently the number of motorcycles has increased in urban area, and it is believed that motorcycle is one of the air pollution and greenhouse gas emission sources. But the greenhouse gas emission from motorcycle has been high uncertainty due investigation of a lack of activity data and emission factors in Korea. So in this study, the greenhouse gas emission from motorcycle is estimated by considering the population of moped and VKT(vehicle kilometers travelled) of motorcycle by recent other studies. And the emissions by IPCC Tier 2 and Tier 3 methodology are calculated and compared. As the results, the nationwide $CO_2$ equivalent emissions from motorcycles by Tier 2 and Tier 3 method are calculated as 2,758 kton/yr and 2,739 kton/yr in 2008. The contribution ratio of this emission is estimated as 2.7% in on-road transport sector.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.13-20
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• 2010

Recently, the operation of construction equipments have increased by many construction project. So a respectable amount of greenhouse gas is expected from construction equipments. But the greenhouse gas emissions from construction equipment have been high uncertainty due investigation of a lack of activity data and emission factors in Korea. In this study, annual greenhouse gas emissions from construction equipment are estimated by IPCC's Tier 2 and Tier 3 method. These methods require emission factors, fuel consumption, average kilowatts and operating hours. As the results, the nationwide emission from construction equipments by Tier 2 and Tier 3 are calculated as $21,784kton-CO_2eq/year$ and $22,811kton-CO_2eq/year$ in 2008.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.393-399
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• 2017

According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), all parties have to submit the national GHG inventory report. Estimating carbon stocks and changes in Land Use, Land-Use Changes and Forestry (LULUCF) needs an activity data and emission factors. So this study was conducted to develop carbon emission factor for Robinia pseudoacacia L., Betula platyphylla var. japonica, and Liriodendron tulipifera. As a result, the basic wood density ($g/cm_3$) was 0.64 for R. pseudoacacia, 0.55 for B. platyphylla, and 0.46 for L. tulipifera. Biomass expansion factor was 1.47 for R. pseudoacacia, 1.30 for B. platyphylla, and 1.24 for L. tulipifera. Root to shoot ratio was 0.48 for R. pseudoacacia, 0.29 for B. platyphylla, and 0.23 for L. tulipifera. Uncertainty of estimated emission factors on three species ranged from 3.39% to 27.43% within recommended value (30%) by IPCC. We calculated carbon stock and change using these emission factors. Three species stored carbon in forest and net $CO_2$ removal was $1,255,398\;t\;CO_2/yr$ during 5 years. So we concluded that our result could be used as emission factors for national GHG inventory report on forest sector.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.66-88
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• 2009

This paper studies optimal discretionary monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty in the housing sector. In particular, we allow two possible regimes regarding the evolution of housing price inflation and the effects of housing price inflation on the aggregate demand. Estimation results with the US data confirm the presence of two distinctive regimes, one 'normal' and the other more akin to the housing price 'bubble' state. The optimal policy is 'asymmetric' in that the optimal responses in the 'normal' regime require the central bank to lean against the wind to inflationary pressure from CPI and housing inflation, while the central bank is recommended to accommodate it in the other regime.

• Education of Primary School Mathematics
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.149-166
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to analyze the statistical literacy in elementary school students when they beginning inference. Picto-graphs provide statistical information and often data-related arguments they certainly qualify as objects for interpretation, for critical evaluation, and for discussion or communication of the conclusions presented. For research, the inference from pictograph task was designed and statistical literacy standards for evaluating the student's level was presented based on prior studies. Evaluating student's statistical literacy is meaningful in that it can check their current level. To know the student's current level can help them achieve a higher level of performance. The outcomes of this research indicate that pictograph can provide a basis for rich tasks displaying not only student's counting skills but also their appreciation of variation and uncertainty in prediction. Raising statistical thinking by students is an important goal in statistical education, and the experience of informal statistical reasoning can help with formal statistical reasoning that will be learned later. Therefore, the task about the inference from a pictograph, discussions on statistical learning of elementary school children are expected to present meaningful implications for statistical education.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.9
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• pp.589-601
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• 2019

Various applications of radar rainfall data have been actively employed in the field of hydro-meteorology. Since radar rainfall is estimated by using predefined reflectivity-rainfall intensity relationships, they may not have sufficient reproducibility of observations. In this study, a generalized linear model is introduced to better capture the Z-R relationship in the context of bias correction within a Bayesian regression framework. The bias-corrected radar rainfall with the generalized linear model is more accurate than the widely used mean field bias correction method. In addition, we analyzed variability of the bias correction parameters under various geomorphological conditions such as the height of the weather station and the separation distance from the radar. The identified relationship is finally used to derive a regionalized formula which can provide bias correction factors over the entire watershed. It can be concluded that the bias correction parameters and regionalized method obtained from this study could be useful in the field of radar hydrology.