• Title/Summary/Keyword: Data uncertainty

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Comparative Evaluation of QUAL2E and QUAL-NIER Models for Water Quality Prediction in Eutrophic River (부영양 하천의 수질예측을 위한 QUAL2E와 QUAL-NIER 모델의 비교·평가)

  • Choi, Jungkyu;Chung, Sewoong;Ryoo, Jaeil
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.54-62
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    • 2008
  • It is often believed that a more complex water quality model is better able to simulate reality. The more complex a model, however, the more parameters are involved thus increases the cost and uncertainty of modeling processes. The objective of this study was to compare the performance of two steady-state river water quality models, QUAL2E and QUAL-NIER, that have different complexity. QUAL-NIER is recently developed by National Institute of Environmental Research aiming to enhance the simulation capability of QUAL2E for eutrophic rivers. It is a carbon based model that considers different forms, such as dissolved versus particulate and labile versus refractory, of carbon and nutrients, and the contribution of autochthonous loading due to algal metabolism. The models were simultaneously applied to Nakdong River and their performance was evaluated by statistical verification with field data. Both models showed similar performance and satisfactorily replicated the longitudinal variations of BOD, T-N, T-P, Chl.a concentrations along the river. The algal blooms occurred at the stagnant reaches of downstream were also reasonably captured by the models. Although QUAL-NIER somewhat reduced the magnitude of errors, the hypothesis tests revealed no statistical evidence to justify its better performance. The contribution of autochthonous carbon and nutrient load by algal metabolism was insignificant because the hydraulic retention time is relatively short compare to the time scale of kinetic reactions. The results imply that the kinetic processes included in QUAL-NIER are too complex for the nature and scale of the real processes involved, thus needs to be optimized for improving the modeling efficiency.

Simulation of Unsaturated Fluid Flow on the 2nd Phase Facility at the Wolsong LILW Disposal Center (경주 중저준위방폐장 2단계 처분시설의 불포화 환경하에서 침투수 유동 해석)

  • Ha, Jaechul;Lee, Jeonghwan;Yoon, Jeonghyoun
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.219-230
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    • 2017
  • This study was conducted to predict and evaluate the uncertainty of safety after closure of the second phase surface disposal facility of the Gyeongju intermediate and low level repository in Korea. In this study, four scenarios are developed considering both intact and degraded states of multi-layered covers and disposal containers; also, the fluid flow by a rainfall into the disposal facility is simulated. The rainfall conditions are implemented based on the monthly average data of the past 30 years (1985~2014); the simulation period is 300 years, the management period regulated by institutional provisions. As a result of the evaluation of the basic scenario, in which the integrity of both of the containers and the covers is maintained, it was confirmed that penetration of rainfall does not completely saturate the inside of the disposal facility. It is revealed that the multiple cover layers and concrete containers effectively play the role of barrier against the permeation of rainfall.

An Dynamic Analysis on the Technology Innovation of Auto Production Industry (자동차산업 기술혁신의 동학적 분석)

  • Song, Tae-Bock;Namn, Su-Hyeon
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.85-108
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    • 2011
  • Under Ford system, corporations sought to maximize the economies of scale by raising the production efficiency. It aims to lower the production cost by increasing the quantity of output. But in the era of market flux and uncertainty, however, such strategies can no longer be sustained. Replacing the structures of Ford system, Toyota was able to accelerate the pace of process innovation and product innovation. Related to this innovation is JIT, new model development, modularization. The firm's reliance on flexible production technology provides opportunities to expand her production basis to foreign countries successfully. The main objective of this paper is to explore the contribution of process innovation to profit-capital ratio. The model is estimated using a time-series data of 18 years from 1990 to 2007 of auto production industry in korea. An Implication of this estimation shows that process innovation explains a significant portion of profit-capital ratio.

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Position Improvement of a Mobile Robot by Real Time Tracking of Multiple Moving Objects (실시간 다중이동물체 추적에 의한 이동로봇의 위치개선)

  • Jin, Tae-Seok;Lee, Min-Jung;Tack, Han-Ho;Lee, In-Yong;Lee, Joon-Tark
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.187-192
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    • 2008
  • The Intelligent Space(ISpace) provides challenging research fields for surveillance, human-computer interfacing, networked camera conferencing, industrial monitoring or service and training applications. ISpace is the space where many intelligent devices, such as computers and sensors, are distributed. According to the cooperation of many intelligent devices, the environment, it is very important that the system knows the location information to offer the useful services. In order to achieve these goals, we present a method for representing, tracking and human Jollowing by fusing distributed multiple vision systems in ISpace, with application to pedestrian tracking in a crowd. This paper describes appearance based unknown object tracking with the distributed vision system in intelligent space. First, we discuss how object color information is obtained and how the color appearance based model is constructed from this data. Then, we discuss the global color model based on the local color information. The process of learning within global model and the experimental results are also presented.

Probabilistic Analysis for Stability Evaluation of Landslides Using Geo-spatial Information (지형공간 정보를 활용한 산사태 안정평가의 확률론적 해석)

  • Park, Byung-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.14 no.3 s.37
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of the current research is to evaluate the possibility of landslides by using geo-spatial information system. Geological information has been summarized and stability analysis for infinite slopes has been conducted based on the force equilibrium. In addition, the analysis of landslides was performed based on probabilistic approach by using probabilistic variables which can include uncertainty of input parameters. For the purpose of testifing the applicability of the analysis method actual geological data from a construction site was obtained, thereby performing both a preliminary analysis for a large area and detailed analysis for a better result. As a result of the current analysis several issues such as the possibility of development of landslides, detailed analysis of where landslides are most likely to be developed were analysed by using two concepts of safety and index of failure probability.

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Policy Evaluation of the Government Financial Transfers to Korean Fisheries : LISREL Approach (수산부문 정부재정지원정책의 정성 평가)

  • 박성쾌;김정봉
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 2002
  • The main objective of this research aims at analyzing efficiency of government financial transfers(GFTs) to the Korean fisheries sector, using the Linear Structural Relations model(i.e., LISERL model) and the field survey data. Most policies of GFTs tend to be implemented to protect industries with weak competitive advantages such as infant and/or primary industries. Specific policy instruments include income transfers, government loans with lower interest rates, taxes and the like. Fishing activities are made at a highly changeable natural environment of the ocean with a great amount of risk and uncertainty. Fishing households make their livelihood under the small-scale fisheries. Such fisheries and fishing households have also a relatively weak market power. Because of these fisheries characteristics most coastal states have adopted a variety of government support programs. However, despite such a huge government support, during the past several decades the world fishing communities have seen a tendency of continuous fishereis resource overexploitation. For this resason there have been hot debates over the government support policies for fisheries through OECD, FAO, WTO, and UNEP. In general, policy evaluations tend to be made on the basis of benefit-cost(B/C) analysis. However, the B/C analysis may produce results quite different from real ones primarily due to many unmeasurable effects. Thus, the authors composed simple questionaires and let fishermen, government officials and academic people answer the questions. The survery was made in several ways such as post-mail and personal/group interviews. In recent years, for analysis of policy performances and effectiveness, the LISREL model has often been used, which consists of structural and measurement eqquations. This model has a good advantage of transforming unobservable variables to observable ones so that it helps construct endogenous cause and effect relationships among relevant variables. The evaluation was done from the two aspects: policy results and policy effectiveness. The policy result evaluation showed that there is a need for improvement for policy problem perception and decision-making process, while the policy effect evaluation suggested that the policy goals were successfully achieved and social justice was improved from the perspective of the entire society as well. However, the research results showed that the GFT policies rendered little contrubtion to narrowing down the gap between GFT beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries incomes.

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Optimal Design of Process-Inventory Network under Cycle Time and Batch Quantity Uncertainties (이중 불확실성하의 공정-저장조 망구조 최적설계)

  • Suh, Kuen-Hack;Yi, Gyeong-Beom
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.305-312
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    • 2010
  • The aim of this study is to find an analytic solution to the problem of determining the optimal capacity of a batch-storage network to meet demand for finished products in a system undergoing joint random variations of operating time and batch material loss. The superstructure of the plant considered here consists of a network of serially and/or parallel interlinked batch processes and storage units. The production processes transform a set of feedstock materials into another set of products with constant conversion factors. The final product demand flow is susceptible to joint random variations in the cycle time and batch size. The production processes have also joint random variations in cycle time and product quantity. The spoiled materials are treated through regeneration or waste disposal processes. The objective function of the optimization is minimizing the total cost, which is composed of setup and inventory holding costs as well as the capital costs of constructing processes and storage units. A novel production and inventory analysis the PSW (Periodic Square Wave) model, provides a judicious graphical method to find the upper and lower bounds of random flows. The advantage of this model is that it provides a set of simple analytic solutions while also maintaining a realistic description of the random material flows between processes and storage units; as a consequence of these analytic solutions, the computation burden is significantly reduced. The proposed method has the potential to rapidly provide very useful data on which to base investment decisions during the early plant design stage. It should be of particular use when these decisions must be made in a highly uncertain business environment.

The Meaning of Experience of Teachers who Implemented Action Research (현장연구를 실행해 본 유아교사의 경험과 그 의미에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Jeehyee;Suh, Youngsook
    • Korean Journal of Childcare and Education
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.5-35
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    • 2013
  • This study aimed to figure out the action research process and experience and to examine the significance of such experiences to teachers who implemented action research. This study took in-depth interviews with three experienced teachers and analyzed collected data. In order to carry out action research, they must start from the point of their standing and find the most suitable methodology for the method of their own life. There might cases that they felt strangeness because of unexpected reaction, and struggled hard against uncertainty. But, they finally experienced the joy of completion of their research. Such experiences gave them opportunities to reflect on their own lives and to escape any mannerism through concentration and enthusiasm. And they could recognize the importance of record of ordinary life in a meaningful way, and also recognize the meaning of process as a new start other than failure. So, they made efforts to grant meaning in a widened perspective. And they found themselves to live as empirical researchers. This study demonstrates that teachers in the educational field could not only have sufficient quality to be researchers but also need to be more aware of such talents.

Entrepreneurial Orientation of Technology Spin-offs Created by University Faculties and Institute Researchers in Korea

  • Seo, Haeng-A;Han, Jung-Wha;Cho, Nam-Jae
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.157-164
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    • 2009
  • This research focuses on entrepreneurial orientation(EO) of technology spin-offs as they are expected to reduce the gap between their technology and the market. Entrepreneurial orientation is an organizational activity or process that redistributes or combines resources in an innovative way and takes risk to create new values. It helps improve the level of organizational innovation to deal with uncertainty. An empirical study was performed to analyze the EO of spin-offs established by members of university faculties and research institutes in Korea. Antecedent variables to EO are hypothesized to include public policy for university faculty members and researchers at research institutes, the relationship with incubating organizations, and the level of social networking with other firms. The EO and technological performance relationships are also hypothesized. Data from a total of 121 spin-off organizations were collected and a series of multiple regressions were performed. The performance variable included both technological performance, such as the number of newly marketed products and new technology and subjective performance, such as the level of satisfaction with sales amount and profitability. Several important conclusions were drawn from this study. First, while government policy is not related to EO, the policy of a university or a research institute has a significant effect on the level of innovativeness. Second, a high percentage of human resources applied at the incubating organization results in a negative effect on risk taking. The level of cooperation with the incubating organization too is not related to Entrepreneurial Orientation. Third, the intensity of cooperative networking with other firms has a significant effect on risk-taking. Network relationship with government related organizations is not related to Entrepreneurial Orientation. This study analyzes the importance and role of policy of the university and research institute and networking with other firms to improve EO. It also suggests that a high composition of human resources at the incubating organization has a negative relationship with EO.

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Flexural Vibration of Stiffened Plates in Contact with Water (보강판(補剛板)의 접수진동(接水振動))

  • K.C.,Kim;K.P.,Rhee;H.Y.,Lee
    • Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.11-16
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    • 1980
  • For vibration analysis of stiffened plates the orthotropic plate analogy is commonly accepted. As to stiffened plates in contact with water, however, there is still much uncertainty in estimation of the added mass because of the lack of direct methods. The authors, considering that for added mass of plates there are many reliable data derived theoretically or experimentally available, suggest a method to estimate the added mass of a stiffened plate by combining the mass increase factor, $\beta$, of an equivalent orthotropic plate and the correction factor, $\kappa$, for the effects of stiffeners. The latter is to be derived from systematic experimental investigations. Then, the natural frequency in water, f', can be calculated from that in air, f, by the equation $f'=f/\sqrt{1+\kappa\beta}$. To investigate practical applicability of this method, a systematic experiment was carried out with five uniaxially stiffened plates. Each of them had a plate of same size, $600mm{\times}600mm{\times}3.2mm$, but stiffeners of different size in the web-depth, 41.6mm, 51.2mm or 66.8mm and of different spacing 75mm, 100mm, or 150mm. Natural frequencies were measured under simply supported-edge conditions in both air and water, and corresponding $\kappa$ values derived. In spite of wide variations of web-depth and spcae of stiffeners, the experimental results show that the diversity of $\kappa$ values is not remarkable; mean values of $\kappa$ are 1.31 with standard deviation of 0.025 for the first modes and 1.27 with that 0.077 for the second modes. Hence, the authors concluded that the above $\kappa$ values can be used generally for the cases of uniaxially stiffened plates both sides of which contact with water, and that $\kappa$ values of general use for the cases of cross-stiffened plates may also be obtainable from similar experiments.

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