• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.67-83
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• 2015

Predicting the location and intensity of precipitation still remains a main issue in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Resolution is a very important component of precipitation forecasts in NWP. Compared with a lower resolution model, a higher resolution model can predict small scale (i.e., storm scale) precipitation and depict convection structures more precisely. In addition, an ensemble technique can be used to improve the precipitation forecast because it can estimate uncertainties associated with forecasts. Therefore, NWP using both a higher resolution model and ensemble technique is expected to represent inherent uncertainties of convective scale motion better and lead to improved forecasts. In this study, the limited area ensemble prediction system for the convective-scale (i.e., high resolution) operational Unified Model (UM) in Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was developed and evaluated for the ensemble forecasts during August 2012. The model domain covers the limited area over the Korean Peninsula. The high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system developed showed good skill in predicting precipitation, wind, and temperature at the surface as well as meteorological variables at 500 and 850 hPa. To investigate which combination of horizontal resolution and ensemble member is most skillful, the system was run with three different horizontal resolutions (1.5, 2, and 3 km) and ensemble members (8, 12, and 16), and the forecasts from the experiments were evaluated. To assess the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill of the system, the precipitation forecasts for two heavy rainfall cases during the study period were analyzed using the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Probability Matching (PM) method. The PM method was effective in representing the intensity of precipitation and the FSS was effective in verifying the precipitation forecast for the high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system in KMA.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.102-118
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• 2015

This study summarized the results of the international ocean reanalysis intercomparison project. We introduced the characteristics of various ocean reanalysis systems and analyzed the assimilated performance on the typical eight oceanic variables (heat content, steric height, sea level, surface heat fluxes, mixed layer depth, subsurface salinity, depth of $20^{\circ}C$ isotherm, sea ice). In general, ensemble means show better estimations than those of any individual ocean reanalysis, but it depends on analyzed regions and variables. Among the eight oceanic variables, salinity and sea ice variabilities have large spreads among models. The deep sea, Southern Ocean, and coastal regions including western boundary current commonly appear as the areas with largest uncertainty between different objective analyses and assimilation models. We expect that intercomparison project for the ocean assimilation models independently operated in Korea should be processed, which allows us to join relevant international programs in the near future.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-14
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• 2009

Wind energy has been recognized as one of the most important and fastest growing energy resources without emission of air pollutant. Thus, it is necessary to predict wind speed and direction accurately both in time and space toward the efficient usage of wind energy. Numerical simulation experiments using the Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) are carried out to clarify the impact of surface observation data assimilation on the estimation of wind energy resources. The EXP_Radius run was designed with respect to the radius of influence in the Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA), and the EXP_Impact run was made by changing the nudging coefficient that determines the relative magnitude of the nudging term. The simulation period covers a clear-sky event on 3 - 5 June 2007 and another is on 2 - 4 December 2006. It is found that the simulated results are very sensitive to the radius of influence and nudging parameters in the FDDA. The further analysis of the results shows that the impact of the radius of influence tends to be stronger in weak synoptic flow episode than that in strong synoptic flows episode. The nudging factor is also sensitive to the intensity of the synoptic flows.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.79-91
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• 2002

Four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) technique was considered for 3 dimensional wind field in coastal area and a set of 3 numerical experiments including control experiments has been tested for the case of the synoptic weather pattern of the weak northerly geostrophic wind with the cloud amount of less than 5/10 in autumn. A three dimensional land and sea breeze model with the sea surface temperature (SST) of 290K was performed without nudging the observed wind field and surface temperature of AWS (Automatic Weather System) for the control experiment. The results of the control experiment showed that the horizontal temperature gradient across the coastline was weakly simulated so that the strength of the sea breeze in the model was much weaker than that of observed one. The experiment with only observed horizontal wind field showed that both the pattern of local change of wind direction and the times of starting and ending of the land-sea breeze were fairly well simulated. However, the horizontal wind speed and vertical motion in the convergence zone were weakly simulated. The experiment with nudgings of both the surface temperature and wind speed showed that both the pattern of local change of wind direction and the times of starting and ending of the land-sea breeze were fairly well simulated even though the ending time of the sea breeze was delayed due to oversimulated temperature gradient along the shoreline.

• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.415-427
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• 2012

$CO_2$ is the most important trace gas related to climate change. Therefore, understanding surface carbon sources and sinks is important when seeking to estimate the impact of $CO_2$ on the environment and climate. CarbonTracker, developed by NOAA, is an inverse modeling system that estimates surface carbon fluxes using an ensemble Kalman filter with atmospheric $CO_2$ measurements as a constraint. In this study, to investigate the capability of CarbonTracker as an analysis tool for estimating surface carbon fluxes in Asia, an experiment with a nesting domain centered in Asia is performed. In general, the results show that setting a nesting domain centered in Asia region enables detailed estimations of surface carbon fluxes in Asia. From a rank histogram, the prior ensemble spread verified at observational sites located in Asia is well represented with a relatively flat rank histogram. The posterior flux in the Eurasian Boreal and Eurasian Temperate regions is well analyzed with proper seasonal cycles and amplitudes. On the other hand, in tropical regions of Asia, the posterior flux does not differ greatly from the prior flux due to fewer $CO_2$ observations. The root mean square error of the model $CO_2$ calculated by the posterior flux is less than the model $CO_2$ calculated by the prior flux, implying that CarbonTracker based on the ensemble Kalman filter works appropriately for the Asia region.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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• v.54 no.4
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• pp.623-637
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• 2018

This study investigates the effects of horizontal resolution, cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS), and probability forecasting on precipitation forecasts over the Korean Peninsula from 00 UTC 15 August to 12 UTC 14 September 2013, using the limited-area ensemble prediction system (LEPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration. To investigate the effect of resolution, the control members of the LEPS with 1.5- and 3-km resolution were compared. Two 3-km experiments with and without the CPS were conducted for the control member, because a 3-km resolution lies within the gray zone. For probability forecasting, 12 ensemble members with 3-km resolution were run using the LEPS. The forecast performance was evaluated for both the whole study period and precipitation cases categorized by synoptic forcing. The performance of precipitation forecasts using the 1.5-km resolution was better than that using the 3-km resolution for both the total period and individual cases. The result of the 3-km resolution experiment with the CPS did not differ significantly from that without it. The 3-km ensemble mean and probability matching (PM) performed better than the 3-km control member, regardless of the use of the CPS. The PM complemented the defect of the ensemble mean, which better predicts precipitation regions but underestimates precipitation amount by averaging ensembles, compared to the control member. Further, both the 3-km ensemble mean and PM outperformed the 1.5-km control member, which implies that the lower performance of the 3-km control member compared to the 1.5-km control member was complemented by probability forecasting.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.392-392
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• 2021

자료동화(data assimilation) 기법은 관측 자료와 예측 모형의 정보를 동시에 활용, 모형의 상태량(state variables)이나 매개변수(model parameters)를 실시간으로 업데이트하는 Bayesian 필터링 이론에 근거한 방법으로, 최근 이를 활용한 수문 모의 정확도 향상 기술이 빠르게 발전하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 앙상블 자료동화의 정확성을 향상시키기 위한 세부 방법인 along-the-stream localization과 inflation 기법의 분포형 수문 모형에 대한 적용성을 대규모 지역 단위(regional-scale) 모의를 통해 검토한다. 분포형 수문모형과 자료동화 framework로는 WRF-Hydro(Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological Modeling System)와 DART(Data Assimilation Research Testbed)를 각각 적용한다. WRF-Hydro는 미국의 전 대륙지역(CONUS; continental United States)에 대한 수문 모델링 framework인 National Water Model의 핵심엔진이고, DART는 미국 National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR) 연구소에서 개발한 범용 자료동화 도구이다. 본 연구에서는 지표수 수문모형의 자료동화를 위해 개발된 기법인 along-the-stream localization과 inflation 기법이 하도 추적에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. along-the stream localization 기법은 공간적 근접도 외에 하도의 수문학적 연관관계를 고려하는 localization 기법으로, 상대적으로 수문학적 상관도가 떨어지는 하도에 대한 과도한 자료동화를 줄여줄 수 있다. inflation 기법은 앙상블의 다양성을 증가시키는 기법으로, 칼만 필터(Kalman filter)에 의한 업데이트의 이전이나 이후 적용하여 앙상블 예측의 정확도를 추가적으로 향상시킬 수 있다. 본 고에서는 앙상블 자료동화 기법을 지표수 수문 모의에 적용할 경우 남아 있는 난제와 적용 가능한 방법에 대해 중점적으로 논의한다.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.31-42
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• 2017

Purpose - The multicultural society is a society where a variety of ethnic groups and cultures co-exist. Regarding Korean multicultural society, the public interest in the multicultural society and its problems are on a growing trend due to the increasing number of the multicultural families by international marriage and the foreign immigrant workers. Research design, data, and methodology - Models of the multicultural society policies have been divided into those of assimilation and multiculturalism, while they have been materialized into the models of discriminative exclusivism, assimilation and multiculturalism. Most countries are aiming at the model of either the multiculturalism or the assimilation focused on national managerial situations. Results - In the case of Europe where the multicultural society had been formed earlier than Korea, Islamic immigrants have been politically accepted in order for Europe to overcome the problem of population decrease caused by its low birth-rate. Also, in the case of the United States. Conclusions - Korean multicultural society policies are characterized mostly by supporting the multicultural families of international marriage. In this study, it is intended to present the characteristics of diversified immigrants and the possible directions of the polices on immigrant youth in accordance with each country's managerial policy.

• MALSORI
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• no.21_24
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• pp.3-24
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• 1992

This study was designed to investigate the changes of phonological processes in normal Korean children aged from 2- to 6-years. Forty eight children who lived in Seoul or Kyung-Ki do were tested with a picture articulation test and their articulation errors including omissions, additions and substitutions were coded into phonological processes. Those phonological processes were discussed in several ways: syllable structure, place, manner, assimilation, tenseness, and aspiration of sounds. Data were analyzed by two ways: (1) number of subjects who showed each process and (2) percentage of occurrence of each process. Analyses in omission-addition processes demonstrated that postvocalic omission occurred most frequently, followed by velar-, alveolar-, and glottal omission. Analyses in substitution processes showed that fronting (palatal and velar), backing (alveolar), and alveolization occurred most frequently in terms of the place of sounds. In terms of assimilation, alveolar-, stopping, and aspiration assimilation occurred frequently. Analyses by the tenseness and aspiration showed similar occurrences among the 4 processes, with slightly higher occurrences in tensing and aspiration than lanxing and deaspiration. All of the processes decreased by age. The numbers of the processes showed by more than half of the children or exceeded 10％ of occurrence were 20 in 2-years of age, 10 in 3-years of age, 1 in 4-years of age, and none in ages of 5 and 6.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.45-68
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• 2007

This study aims to explore factors of Assimilation Gap(AG) which is proposed and illustrated by Fichman and Kemerer(1997). AG is defined as the time delay between adoption and deployment and mainly studied at the organizational level. This study derives the factor affecting AG through a review of technology acceptance models and agency theory. The research model consists of three groups of independent variables(IT knowledge burden, Individual characteristics, and organization characteristics) and a moderator, which is goal incongruence. Using multiple regression analyses, four groups of hypotheses are tested with data of 221 knowledge workers from various organizations through e-mail survey. The result shows that radicalness(a dimension of knowledge burden), personal innovativeness, self-efficacy, and organizational support are statistically significant factors while complexity, experience, and perceived critical mass are not supported. The moderator effects of goal incongruence are found in personal innovativeness and organizational support. The results of this study demonstrate that agency theory is a useful perspective to deal with AG, especially in radical innovation. In addition, IT practitioners should consider not only user training but also incentives and possible organizational controls in implementing a new information technology.