• Title/Summary/Keyword: Damage probability

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Dynamic response uncertainty analysis of vehicle-track coupling system with fuzzy variables

  • Ye, Ling;Chen, Hua-Peng;Zhou, Hang;Wang, Sheng-Nan
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.75 no.4
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    • pp.519-527
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    • 2020
  • Dynamic analysis of a vehicle-track coupling system is important to structural design, damage detection and condition assessment of the structural system. Deterministic analysis of the vehicle-track coupling system has been extensively studied in the past, however, the structural parameters of the coupling system have uncertainties in engineering practices. It is essential to treat the parameters of the vehicle-track coupling system with consideration of uncertainties. In this paper, a method for predicting the bounds of the vehicle-track coupling system responses with uncertain parameters is presented. The uncertain system parameters are modeled as fuzzy variables instead of conventional random variables with known probability distributions. Then, the dynamic response functions of the coupling system are transformed into a component function based on the high dimensional representation approximation. The Lagrange interpolation method is used to approximate the component function. Finally, the bounds of the system's dynamic responses can be predicted by using Monte Carlo method for the interpolation polynomials of the Lagrange interpolation function. A numerical example is introduced to illustrate the ability of the proposed method to predict the bounds of the system's dynamic responses, and the results are compared with the direct Monte Carlo method. The results show that the proposed method is effective and efficient to predict the bounds of the system's dynamic responses with fuzzy variables.

Fragility reduction using passive response modification in a Consequence-Based Engineering (CBE) framework

  • Duenas-Osorio, Leonardo;Park, Joonam;Towashiraporn, Peeranan;Goodno, Barry J.;Frost, David;Craig, James I.;Bostrom, Ann
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.17 no.3_4
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    • pp.527-537
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    • 2004
  • Consequence-Based Engineering (CBE) is a new paradigm proposed by the Mid-America Earthquake Center (MAE) to guide evaluation and rehabilitation of building structures and networks in areas of low probability - high consequence earthquakes such as the central region of the U.S. The principal objective of CBE is to minimize consequences by prescribing appropriate intervention procedures for a broad range of structures and systems, in consultation with key decision makers. One possible intervention option for rehabilitating unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings, widely used for essential facilities in Mid-America, is passive energy dissipation (PED). After the CBE process is described, its application in the rehabilitation of vulnerable URM building construction in Mid-America is illustrated through the use of PED devices attached to flexible timber floor diaphragms. It is shown that PED's can be applied to URM buildings in situations where floor diaphragm flexibility can be controlled to reduce both out-of-plane and in-plane wall responses and damage. Reductions as high as 48% in roof displacement and acceleration can be achieved as demonstrated in studies reported below.

Application of FDS for the Hazard Analysis of Lubricating Oil Fires in the Air Compressor Room of Domestic Nuclear Power Plant (국내 원자력발전소의 공기 압축기실에서 윤활유 화재의 위험성 분석을 위한 FDS의 활용)

  • Han, Ho-Sik;Hwang, Cheol-Hong;Baik, Kyung Lok;Lee, Sangkyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2016
  • The standard procedure of fire modeling was reviewed to minimize the user dependence, based on the NUREG-1934 and 1824 reports. The hazard analysis of lubricating oil fires in the air compressor room of domestic nuclear power plant (NPP) was also performed using a representative fire model, FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator). The area ($A_f$) and location of fire source were considered as major parameters for the realistic fire scenarios. As a result, the maximum probability to exceed the thermal damage criteria of IEEE-383 unqualified electrical cables was predicted as approximately 70% with $A_f=1m^2$. It was also found that for qualified electrical cables, the maximum probabilities of exceeding the criteria were 2% and 90% with $A_f=2$ and $4m^2$, respectively. It was concluded that all electrical cables should be replaced with IEEE-383 qualified cables and the dike to restrict as $A_f{\leq}2m^2$ should be installed at the same time, in order to assure the thermal stability of electrical cables for lubricating oil fires in the air compressor room of domestic NPP.

Estimation of the Flash Flood Index by the Probable Rainfall Data for Ungauged Catchments (미계측 유역에서의 확률강우에 대한 돌발홍수지수 산정)

  • Kim, Eung-Seok;Choi, Hyun-Il;Jee, Hong-Kee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.81-88
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    • 2010
  • As there occurs recently and frequently a flash flood due to the climate change, a sudden local flood of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall in a short period of time over a small area, it is increasing that significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as the whole world. Since a flash flood usually occurs as the result of intense rainfall over small steep slope regions and has rapid runoff and debris flow, a flood rises quite quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. The aim of this study is to quantify the severity of flash food by estimation of a flash flood index(FFI) from probability rainfall data in a study basin. FFI-D-F(FFI-Duration-Frequency) curves that present the relative severity of flash flood are developed for a study basin to provide regional basic information for the local flood forecasting and warning system particularly in ungauged catchments. It is also expected that FFI-D-F curves can be utilized for evaluation on flash flood mitigation ability and residual flood risk of both existing and planned flood control facilities.

Analysis of the Breakdown repair time of the Building Components in Public Rental-Housing Types (공공임대주택 유형별 부재의 사후보전 수선시기 설정연구)

  • Lee, KangHee;Ahn, YoungHan;Chae, ChangU
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.129-136
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    • 2013
  • The rental housing has played a key role to supply a decent living space for the low-income households. The owner of the rental housing should maintain and manage the building physical condition. On the other hand, rents should use the housing without any damage and pay a certain fare for the rent. A rent is classified into two types : private and public. The public rent is mainly to supply a living space for non-available home owner with a low-rent fare. Many of public rent are built and supplied by the public institution or local government. The supplier would take a responsibility to maintain the building and components, reflected by the maintenance plan and repair scope. In this paper, it aimed at providing the repair time in building components of the public rental housing such as lighting, electrical cable, paintings and etc.. The repair time is analyzed with three calculation methods which are solved by the probability and empirical approach. Results are as follows : First, the repair time of the electrical facilities are maintained with 11yr, 10yr and 7 in permanent, public and redevelopment rent respectively. The roof proof has a repair time with 14yr, 11yr and 8 in permanent, public and redevelopment rent housing respectively. Second, Most of the components has a prior length of the repair time in permanent, public and redevelopment rent sequently. There is a difference in repair time according to the rental types. Therefore, it would continue to research the difference in aspect of the living style, building physics, living consciousness and etc.

An Experimental Study on the Detection Characteristic of Draft Ice by Thermography System (열화상 시스템에 의한 유빙의 탐지특성에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Cho, Yong-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.302-307
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    • 2017
  • Draft ice in polar regions is formed due to sea level changes and various environmental factors cause damage due to collision with offshore plants and ships for resource development. Drift ice in polar regions is a potential source of accidents for offshore plants that perform long-term operations in one place, as well as on the ship. To prevent accidents with drift ice, offshore plants and ships in polar regions use satellite image information and detection radar to detect drift ice. However, the inability to use visible satellite images at night significantly lowers the detection probability by radar for small drift ice. In this study, we used a thermal imaging system which can be operated day and night for the detection of drift ice, and carried out an experimental study on the detection characteristics of drift ice. To examine the night operation of the thermal imaging system, the experimental condition was set and the thermal image was measured according to the measurement angle change. Under this condition, the correlation was analyzed by theoretical calculating the radiant energy of the drift ice and the sea water.

Features of Patients Associated with Falls from Heights Admitted to Republican Research Center of Emergency Medicine (우즈베키스탄 국립응급병원에 내원한 낙상환자들의 임상적인 특성)

  • Khadjibaev, Abdukhakim Muminovich;Sultanov, Pulat Karimovich;Kim, Hoon
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.248-255
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: study of the mutual influence of the individual anatomical regions damage in patients associated with falls from heights. Methods: 561 medical reports of patients associated with falls from heights admitted to Republican Research Center of Emergency Medicine (RRCEM), in period of 2010-2013 yy, were analyzed retrospectively. Patient's age range was from 15 to 89. Treatment of these patients held in three stages: period of acute disorders of vital functions; relative stabilization period; stabilization of vital functions. The scope and content of medical diagnostic procedures performed on pre-hospital and intensive care stages. The severity of each injury was scored according to the AIS scale, the total severity of lesions was scored by points due to ISS. Digital material is treated by methods of mathematical statistics. Results: Falls from heights leads to associated injuries for 4 times more than isolated trauma, and increases according to height of fall and falling surface. Patients with TBI+chest trauma, are most serious contingent that has highest mortality and complications (36.8%). TBI+musculoskeletal system trauma are characterized by high blood loss, traumatic shock and fat embolism, forming a vicious circle. Conclusion: in patients associated with falls from heights clinical manifestations of injuries mutual aggravation syndrome will be seen. TBI leads to complication of chest trauma, delayed diagnostics of abdominal and chest trauma, aggravation of coma condition. Developing of high blood loss and fat embolism in musculoskeletal system trauma leads to shock and pulmonary embolism, which increases probability of death in the presence of abdominal or chest trauma, but abdominal trauma or chest trauma has no significant effect on the severity of the musculoskeletal system trauma.

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Study on the Method of Development of Road Flood Risk Index by Estimation of Real-time Rainfall Using the Coefficient of Correlation Weighting Method (상관계수가중치법을 적용한 실시간 강우량 추정에 따른 도로 침수위험지수 개발 방법에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Eunmi;Rhee, Kyung Hyun;Kim, Chang Soo
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.478-489
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    • 2014
  • Recently, flood damage by frequent localized downpours in cities are on the increase on account of abnormal climate phenomena and growth of impermeable area by urbanization. In this study, we are focused on flooding on roads which is the basis of all means of transportation. To calculate real-time accumulated rainfall on a road link, we use the Coefficient of Correlation Weighting method (CCW) which is one of the revised methods of missing rainfall as we consider a road link as a unobserved rainfall site. CCW and real-time accumulated rainfall entered through the Internet are used to estimate the real-time rainfall on a road link. Together with the real-time accumulated rainfall, flooding history, rainfall range causing flooding of a road link and frequency probability precipitation for road design are used as factors to determine the Flood Risk Index on roads. We simulated two cases in the past, July, 7th, 2009 and July, 15th, 2012 in Busan. As a result, all of road links included in the actual flooded roads at that time got the high level of flood risk index.

Stochastic Reliability Analysis of Armor Units of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters Subject to Multiple Loads (다중하중에 따른 경사제 피복재의 추계학적 신뢰성 해석)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.138-148
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    • 2012
  • A stochastic reliability analysis model has been developed for evaluating the time-dependent stability performance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters subjected to the multiple loads of arbitrary magnitudes which could be occurred randomly. The initial structural capacities and the damage rates of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters could be estimated as a function of the incident wave height with a given return period by using the modified Hudson's formula and Melby's formula. The structural stability performances of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters could be analyzed in detail through the lifetime reliability investigations according to the limit states such as the serviceability or ultimate limit state and the conditions of multiple loads. Finally, repair intervals for the structural management of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters could quantitatively be evaluated by a new approach suggested in this paper that has been based on the target probability for repair and the accumulated probabilities of failure obtained from the present stochastic reliability analysis model.

Modified T-Plate Interpositional Arthroplasty for Temporomandibular Joint Ankylosis: A New and Versatile Option

  • Ahmad, Imran;Mir, Mohd Altaf;Bariar, Lalit Mohan
    • Archives of Plastic Surgery
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.716-720
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    • 2015
  • Background This study has been conducted with the aim of evaluating modified T-plate interpositional arthroplasty. Methods A prospective comparative study in patients admitted with temporomandibular joint ankylosis. Ankylotic temporomandibular joint arthroplasty included condylectomy gap arthroplasty in 7, temporalis muscle flap interpositional arthroplasty in 8, and modified T-plate interpositional arthroplasty in 13 cases. The patients were followed for three years. Collected data were tabulated and subjected to Fisher's exact test, chi-square test and probability estimation. Results A significant increase in interincisal distance of 32 mm was seen in 12 (92.31%) patients in the T-plate interposition group, in 2 (25%) cases of the temporalis muscle flap interposition group, and in 1 case (14.28%) of the condylectomy group at 12, 24, and 36 months. Re-ankylosis was observed in 1 case (9.69%) of the T-plate interposition group, while as it was observed in 4 (50%) cases in the temporalis muscle flap interposition group and 4 (57.14%) cases in the condylectomy group, and these differences were statistically significant. Conclusions Our clinical experience with the use of the T-plate over the past 5 years has been encouraging, and our physiotherapy technique is quite simple. Even illiterate parents can assess it easily. Hence, we recommend this easy technique that does not damage the temporalis muscle for the management of temporomandibular joint ankylosis.