• Title/Summary/Keyword: Damage probability

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A Study on the Volcanic Ash Damage Sector Selection based on the Analysis of Overseas Cases and Domestic Spatial Information (해외 사례 분석과 국내 공간정보 분석을 통한 화산재 피해 분야 선정)

  • Han, Hyeon-gyeong;Baek, Won-kyung;Jung, Hyung-sup;Kim, Miri;Lee, Moungjin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.5_1
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    • pp.751-761
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    • 2019
  • Mt. Baekdu, Mt. Aso, Mt. Sakurajima, Mt. Kikai and etc are distributed around the Korean Peninsula. Recently signs of eruption of Mt. Baekdu are increasing, raising concerns over possible damage to volcanic ash from seasonal winds during the winter eruption. Therefore, detailed procedures for investigation and countermeasures for volcanic ash spread and damage are required. But the standards for the warning and alarm signal of volcanic ash presented by Korea Ministry of Government Legislation are vague, with "when damage is expected" and "when serious damage is expected". In this study, to analyze the damage threshold and to apply the cases of overseas damage to the country, a survey was conducted on the establishment of domestic spatial information by public institutions with public confidence. As a result of the investigation of damage from volcanic ash overseas, the details of the damage cases were different depending on the type of life or income sources of each country. Therefore, instead of applying the volcanic ash damage cases abroad in Korea, spatial information analysis was performed to reflect domestic social and natural characteristics. In addition, we selected the areas to be considered in the event of volcanic ash damage in Korea. Finally, domestic volcanic ash damages should be classified as health, residential, road, railroad, aviation, power, water, agriculture, livestock, forest, and soil. When establishing the volcanic ash alarm optimized for Korea in the future, overseas volcanic ash damage cases and domestic spatial information construction in this study will be helpful in policy establishment.

The Study on the Strong Wind Damage Prediction for Estimation Surface Wind Speed of Typhoon Season(I) (태풍시기의 강풍피해 예측을 위한 지상풍 산정에 관한 연구(I))

  • Park, Jong-Kil;Jung, Woo-Sik;Choi, Hyo-Jin
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.195-201
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    • 2008
  • Damage from typhoon disaster can be mitigated by grasping and dealing with the damage promptly for the regions in typhoon track. What is this work, a technique to analyzed dangerousness of typhoon should be presupposed. This study estimated 10 m level wind speed using 700 hPa wind by typhoon, referring to GPS dropwindsonde study of Franklin(2003). For 700 hPa wind, 30 km resolution data of Regional Data Assimilation Prediction System(RDAPS) were used. For roughness length in estimating wind of 10 m level, landuse data of USGS are employed. For 10 m level wind speed of Typhoon Rusa in 2002, we sampled AWS site of $7.4{\sim}30km$ distant from typhoon center and compare them with observational data. The results show that the 10 m level wind speed is the estimation of maximum wind speed which can appear in surface by typhoon and it cannot be compared with general hourly observational data. Wind load on domestic buildings relies on probability distributions of extreme wind speed. Hence, calculated 10 m level wind speed is useful for estimating the damage structure from typhoon.

Probabilistic-based damage identification based on error functions with an autofocusing feature

  • Gorgin, Rahim;Ma, Yunlong;Wu, Zhanjun;Gao, Dongyue;Wang, Yishou
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.1121-1137
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    • 2015
  • This study presents probabilistic-based damage identification technique for highlighting damage in metallic structures. This technique utilizes distributed piezoelectric transducers to generate and monitor the ultrasonic Lamb wave with narrowband frequency. Diagnostic signals were used to define the scatter signals of different paths. The energy of scatter signals till different times were calculated by taking root mean square of the scatter signals. For each pair of parallel paths an error function based on the energy of scatter signals is introduced. The resultant error function then is used to estimate the probability of the presence of damage in the monitoring area. The presented method with an autofocusing feature is applied to aluminum plates for method verification. The results identified using both simulation and experimental Lamb wave signals at different central frequencies agreed well with the actual situations, demonstrating the potential of the presented algorithm for identification of damage in metallic structures. An obvious merit of the presented technique is that in addition to damages located inside the region between transducers; those who are outside this region can also be monitored without any interpretation of signals. This novelty qualifies this method for online structural health monitoring.

A hybrid self-adaptive Firefly-Nelder-Mead algorithm for structural damage detection

  • Pan, Chu-Dong;Yu, Ling;Chen, Ze-Peng;Luo, Wen-Feng;Liu, Huan-Lin
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.957-980
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    • 2016
  • Structural damage detection (SDD) is a challenging task in the field of structural health monitoring (SHM). As an exploring attempt to the SDD problem, a hybrid self-adaptive Firefly-Nelder-Mead (SA-FNM) algorithm is proposed for the SDD problem in this study. First of all, the basic principle of firefly algorithm (FA) is introduced. The Nelder-Mead (NM) algorithm is incorporated into FA for improving the local searching ability. A new strategy for exchanging the information in the firefly group is introduced into the SA-FNM for reducing the computation cost. A random walk strategy for the best firefly and a self-adaptive control strategy of three key parameters, such as light absorption, randomization parameter and critical distance, are proposed for preferably balancing the exploitation and exploration ability of the SA-FNM. The computing performance of the SA-FNM is evaluated and compared with the basic FA by three benchmark functions. Secondly, the SDD problem is mathematically converted into a constrained optimization problem, which is then hopefully solved by the SA-FNM algorithm. A multi-step method is proposed for finding the minimum fitness with a big probability. In order to assess the accuracy and the feasibility of the proposed method, a two-storey rigid frame structure without considering the finite element model (FEM) error and a steel beam with considering the model error are taken examples for numerical simulations. Finally, a series of experimental studies on damage detection of a steel beam with four damage patterns are performed in laboratory. The illustrated results show that the proposed method can accurately identify the structural damage. Some valuable conclusions are made and related issues are discussed as well.

Damage detection of a cable-stayed bridge based on the variation of stay cable forces eliminating environmental temperature effects

  • Chen, Chien-Chou;Wu, Wen-Hwa;Liu, Chun-Yan;Lai, Gwolong
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.859-880
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to establish an effective methodology for the detection of instant damages occurred in cable-stayed bridges with the measurements of cable vibration and structural temperatures. A transfer coefficient for the daily temperature variation and another for the long-term temperature variation are firstly determined to eliminate the environmental temperature effects from the cable force variation. Several thresholds corresponding to different levels of exceedance probability are then obtained to decide four upper criteria and four lower criteria for damage detection. With these criteria, the monitoring data for three stay cables of Ai-Lan Bridge are analyzed and compared to verify the proposed damage detection methodology. The simulated results to consider various damage scenarios unambiguously indicate that the damages with cable force changes larger than ${\pm}1%$ can be confidently detected. As for the required time to detect damage, it is found that the cases with ${\pm}2%$ of cable force change can be discovered in no more than 6 hours and those with ${\pm}1.5%$ of cable force change can be identified in at most 9 hours. This methodology is also investigated for more lightly monitored cases where only the air temperature measurement is available. Under such circumstances, the damages with cable force changes larger than ${\pm}1.5%$ can be detected within 12 hours. Even though not exhaustively reflecting the environmental temperature effects on the cable force variation, both the effective temperature and the air temperature can be considered as valid indices to eliminate these effects at high and low monitoring costs.

Earthquake Damage Assessment of Buildings in Urban Area using Disaster Management Platform (재난관리플랫폼을 이용한 도심지 건물군의 지진피해평가)

  • Jang, Sung-Hyun;Kwon, Dong-Hee;Hwang, Chan-Gyu;Choi, Soo-Young;Chey, Min-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2019
  • Because of its physical characteristics, earthquake has a great impact on a wide area in a short time, so it needs a resilience based seismic countermeasures to restore the community function. For this reason, in this study, the seismic damages of urban buildings were assessed stochastically by virtual earthquakes using public data information and disaster management program(Ergo-EQ). A geographical map reflecting geological characteristics of the target area was created with the buildings and topographic data in Dalseo-gu, Daegu City. In addition, an integrated database including building characteristics was modified to be linked with the Ergo-EQ program. The seismic damages for the buildings were evaluated through the exceedance probability of four different damage levels. From the damage results, it can be identified not only the seismic damage of each building, but also the major factors affecting earthquake damage.

A Study on Damage Analysis Safety Distance Setting for LPG BLEVE (LPG BLEVE 피해분석 및 안전거리 설정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jonghyuk;Lee, Byeongwoo;Kim, Jungwook;Jung, Seungho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2020
  • Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion(BLEVE) can cause not only economic damage to the plant but also serious casualties. LPG accidents account for 89.6 percent of all accidents caused by gas leaks in Korea over the past nine years, while casualties from accidents also account for 73 percent of all accidents, according to statistics from the Korea Gas Safety Corporation. In addition, a potential explosion and a fire accident from one LPG storage tank may affect the nearby storage tanks, causing secondary and tertiary damage (domino effect). The safety distance standards for LPG used by LPG workplaces, charging stations, and homes in Korea have become stricter following the explosion of LPG charging stations in Bucheon. The safety distance regulation is divided into regulations based on the distance damage and the risk including frequency. This study suggests two approaches to optimizing the safety distance based on the just consequence and risk including frequencies. Using the Phast 7.2 Risk Assessment software by DNV GL, the explosion overpressure and heat radiation were derived according to the distance caused by BLEVE in the worst-case scenario, and accident and damage probability were derived by considering the probit function and domino effect. In addition, the safety distance between LPG tanks or LPG charging stations was derived to minimize damage effects by utilizing these measures.

Cost-effective Reliability of RC structure in Korea under earthquake (철근콘크리트구조의 경제적인 내진 신뢰성)

  • ;Alfred H-S. Ang
    • Magazine of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.137-148
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    • 1997
  • 지진이 발생하는 환경에서 철근콘크리트구조의 신뢰성을 수명주기비용에 근거하여 체계적으로 평가하는 방법을 제시하였다. 구조물의 기능성과 경제적인 효용성을 나타내기 위하여 각각 손상확률과 평균수명 주기비용의 개념을 사용하였다. 생애주기 동안 발생할 수 있는 지진에 의하여 구조물이 입게 될 손상을 보상하기 위하여 소요되는 평균손상비용을 평균수명주기비용의 주요 항목으로 고려하여 분석하였다. 구조물의 다양한 손상상태에서 손상비용을 나타내기 위해 요구되는 비용함수는 Park-Ang 손상지수의 중앙값을 독립변수로 하는 함수로 가정하였다. 지진에 의한 구조물의 손상해석은 UCI에서 개발된 SMART-DRAIN의 시뮬레이션기법을 사용하여 그 불확실성을 고려하였다. 제시된 방법을 현행 규준에 의하여 설계된 7층 사무실 건물에 적용하여 그 가능성을 살펴보았다.

A Study on Fatigue Life Distribution of SM45C under Constant Rotating Bending Stress (SM45C의 회전굽힘 응력하의 피로수명분포에 관한 연구)

  • Pyo, Pyo,Dong-Keun;Park, Jong-U
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 1991
  • 피로 파괴연구의 급격한 발전에 따라 최근의 기계나 구조물들은 많은 분야에서 손상허용설계원리에 근거하여 설계되고 있다. 이러한 상황 하에서 피로파손의 정확한 특성을 밝히는 것은 신뢰성을 고려한 기계나 구조물의 설계에 있어 가장 중요한 요인이 된다. 피로파손은 많은 랜덤요소를 내포하고 있으므로 실험결과 분석 및 수명예측을 분석하기 위해서는 통계학적 해석이 요구되고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 회전굽힘피로시험을 수행하고 피로수명을 분석하는데 정규분포, 대수분포, 지수분포 및 Weibull분포를 이용하여 실험결과와 비교하고 파손확률을 찾는데 있다.

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A Study on Rescu Technique and Safe Tow of Damaged Ship(4) - Dynamic Stability of Damaged Ship in Beam Wind and Waves - (손상된 선박의 구난 기술 및 안전 예항에 관한 연구(4) - 손상된 선박의 횡풍.횡풍중에서의 동적 안전성 -)

  • 손경호;이상갑;최경식;김용기
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 1998.10b
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    • pp.27-36
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    • 1998
  • This paper presents a brief outline of dynamic stability of damaged ship in rough, beam wind and waves. The one degree-of-freedom, linear roll equation is adopted with the effects of damage fluid and external forces, but without the effect of sloshing. We evaluate the dynamic stability in terms of capizing probability based on energy balance mechanics and risk analysis , the method of which was proposed by Umeda [2] to the high speed crafts. As a result, we can predict the dynamic stability quantitatively according to sea state , operating and damage conditions.

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