• Title/Summary/Keyword: Damage Predicting

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Experimental investigation on multi-parameter classification predicting degradation model for rock failure using Bayesian method

  • Wang, Chunlai;Li, Changfeng;Chen, Zeng;Liao, Zefeng;Zhao, Guangming;Shi, Feng;Yu, Weijian
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.113-120
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    • 2020
  • Rock damage is the main cause of accidents in underground engineering. It is difficult to predict rock damage accurately by using only one parameter. In this study, a rock failure prediction model was established by using stress, energy, and damage. The prediction level was divided into three levels according to the ratio of the damage threshold stress to the peak stress. A classification predicting model was established, including the stress, energy, damage and AE impact rate using Bayesian method. Results show that the model is good practicability and effectiveness in predicting the degree of rock failure. On the basis of this, a multi-parameter classification predicting deterioration model of rock failure was established. The results provide a new idea for classifying and predicting rockburst.

Comparison of Cumulative Damage Models by predicting Fatigue lives of Aircraft Flaperon Joint (손상누적모델의 비교를 통한 플래퍼론 연결부의 피로수명 예측)

  • Park, Tae-Young;Park, Jung-Sun
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2009
  • This paper deals with the lifetime prediction of Aircraft Flaperon Joint made of AISI 4130 steel. Reviews are performed on the published damage models at first. And three different damage models are used for predicting the fatigue life of the structure subjected to variable amplitude fatigue loading. These models require no increase in complexity of use, nor do they require additional material property or mission loading information to achieve the improved accuracy. Finally a comparison among the fatigue results is performed. It is observed that the Miner's rule could predict longer life than other cumulative damage models which take into account loads below the endurance limit.

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An Impact Analysis and Prediction of Disaster on Forest Fire

  • Kim, Youn Su;Lee, Yeong Ju;Chang, In Hong
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.34-40
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to create a model for predicting the number of extinguishment manpower to put out forest fires by taking into account the climate, the situation, and the extent of the damage at the time of the forest fires. Past research has been approached to determine the cause of the forest fire or to predict the occurrence of a forest fire. How to deal with forest fires is also a very important part of how to deal with them, so predicting the number of extinguishment manpower is important. Therefore predicting the number of extinguishment manpower that have been put into the forest fire is something that can be presented as a new perspective. This study presents a model for predicting the number of extinguishment manpower inputs considering the scale of the damage with forest fire on a scale bigger than 0.1 ha as data based on the forest fire annual report(Korea Forest Service; KFS) from 2015 to 2018 using the moderated multiple regression analysis. As a result, weather factors and extinguished time considering the damage show that affect forest fire extinguishment manpower.

Numerical Study of Ablation Phenomena of Flame Deflector

  • Lee, Wonseok;Yang, Yeongrok;Shin, Sangmok;Shin, Jaecheol
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.10-18
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    • 2021
  • A flame deflector prevents a launch system from thermal damage by deflecting the exhaust flame of the launch vehicle. During the deflection of the flame, the flame deflector is subjected to a high-temperature and high-pressure flow, which results in thermal ablation damage at the surface. Predicting this ablation damage is an essential requirement to ensure a reliable design. This paper introduces a numerical method for predicting the ablation damage phenomena based on a one-way fluid-structure interaction (FSI) analysis. In the proposed procedure, the temperature and convective heat transfer coefficient of the exhaust flame are calculated using a fluid dynamics analysis, and then the ablation is calculated using a finite element analysis (FEA) based on the user-subroutine UMESHMOTION and Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) adaptive mesh technique in ABAQUS. The result of such an analysis was verified by comparison to the ablation test result for a flame deflector.

Performance-based drift prediction of reinforced concrete shear wall using bagging ensemble method

  • Bu-Seog Ju;Shinyoung Kwag;Sangwoo Lee
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.8
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    • pp.2747-2756
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    • 2023
  • Reinforced Concrete (RC) shear walls are one of the civil structures in nuclear power plants to resist lateral loads such as earthquakes and wind loads effectively. Risk-informed and performance-based regulation in the nuclear industry requires considering possible accidents and determining desirable performance on structures. As a result, rather than predicting only the ultimate capacity of structures, the prediction of performances on structures depending on different damage states or various accident scenarios have increasingly needed. This study aims to develop machine-learning models predicting drifts of the RC shear walls according to the damage limit states. The damage limit states are divided into four categories: the onset of cracking, yielding of rebars, crushing of concrete, and structural failure. The data on the drift of shear walls at each damage state are collected from the existing studies, and four regression machine-learning models are used to train the datasets. In addition, the bagging ensemble method is applied to improve the accuracy of the individual machine-learning models. The developed models are to predict the drifts of shear walls consisting of various cross-sections based on designated damage limit states in advance and help to determine the repairing methods according to damage levels to shear walls.

Automated Damage-Controlled Desingn Method of Reinforced Concrete Frames (철근 콘크리트 프레임의 손상제어 전산설계법)

  • 정영수;전준태
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1991.04a
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 1991
  • Conventional aseismic design methods of reinforced concrete frame all but disregard the state of damage over the entire building frame. This paper presents an automated damage-contorlled design method, which aims for uniform damage distribution throughout the entire building frame, as measured by the individual mumber damage indexes. Three design parameters, namely the longitudinal steel ratio, the confinement steel ratio and the frame member depth, were studied for their influence on the frame responce to an earthquake. The usefulness of this design method is demonstrated with a four story example office building predicting the extent of structural damage.

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Evaluating the Efficiency of Models for Predicting Seismic Building Damage (지진으로 인한 건물 손상 예측 모델의 효율성 분석)

  • Chae Song Hwa;Yujin Lim
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.217-220
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    • 2024
  • Predicting earthquake occurrences accurately is challenging, and preparing all buildings with seismic design for such random events is a difficult task. Analyzing building features to predict potential damage and reinforcing vulnerabilities based on this analysis can minimize damages even in buildings without seismic design. Therefore, research analyzing the efficiency of building damage prediction models is essential. In this paper, we compare the accuracy of earthquake damage prediction models using machine learning classification algorithms, including Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, LightGBM, and CatBoost, utilizing data from buildings damaged during the 2015 Nepal earthquake.

Development of Predicting Function for Wind Wave Damage based on Disaster Statistics: Focused on East Sea and Jeju Island (재해통계기반 풍랑피해액예측함수 개발 : 동해안, 제주를 중심으로)

  • Choo, Tai-Ho;Kwon, Jae-Wook;Yun, Gwan-Seon;Yang, Da-Un;Kwak, Kil-Sin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Environmental Technology
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.165-172
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    • 2017
  • In current stage, it is hard to predict the scale of damage caused by natural disaster and it is hard to deal with it. However, in case of disaster planning level, if it is possible to predict the scale of disaster then quick reaction can be done which will reduce the damage. In the present study, therefore, function of wind wave damage estimation among various disaster is developed. Damage of wind wave and typhoon in eastern and Jeju coastal zone was collected from disaster report (1991~2014) published by Ministry of Public Safety and Security and to reflect inflation rate, 2014 damage cost was converted. Also, wave height, wind speed, wave direction, wave period, etc was collected from Meteorological Administration and Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Administration web site. To reflect the characteristic of coastal zone when wave damage occurs, CODI(Coastal Disaster Index), COSI(Coastal Sensitivity Index), CPII(Coastal Potential Impact Index) published by Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency in 2015 were used. When damage occurs, function predicting wind wave damage was developed through weather condition, regional characteristic index and correlation of damage cost.

Predicting ground-based damage states from windstorms using remote-sensing imagery

  • Brown, Tanya M.;Liang, Daan;Womble, J. Arn
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.369-383
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    • 2012
  • Researchers have recently begun using high spatial resolution remote-sensing data, which are automatically captured and georeferenced, to assess damage following natural and man-made disasters, in addition to, or instead of employing the older methods of walking house-to-house for surveys, or photographing individual buildings from an airplane. This research establishes quantitative relationships between the damage states observed at ground-level, and those observed from space using high spatial resolution remote-sensing data, for windstorms, for individual site-built one- or two-family residences (FR12). "Degrees of Damage" (DOD) from the Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale were determined for ground-based damage states; damage states were also assigned for remote-sensing imagery, using a modified version of Womble's Remote-Sensing (RS) Damage Scale. The preliminary developed model can be used to predict the ground-level damage state using remote-sensing imagery, which could significantly lessen the time and expense required to assess the damage following a windstorm.

Empirical evaluations for predicting the damage of FRC wall subjected to close-in explosions

  • Duc-Kien Thai;Thai-Hoan Pham;Duy-Liem Nguyen;Tran Minh Tu;Phan Van Tien
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.65-79
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    • 2023
  • This paper presents a development of empirical evaluations, which can be used to evaluate the damage of fiber-reinforced concrete composites (FRC) wall subjected to close-in blast loads. For this development, a combined application of numerical simulation and machine learning approaches are employed. First, finite element modeling of FRC wall under blast loading is developed and verified using experimental data. Numerical analyses are then carried out to investigate the dynamic behavior of the FRC wall under blast loading. In addition, a data set of 384 samples on the damage of FRC wall due to blast loads is then produced in order to develop machine learning models. Second, three robust machine learning models of Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) are employed to propose empirical evaluations for predicting the damage of FRC wall. The proposed empirical evaluations are very useful for practical evaluation and design of FRC wall subjected to blast loads.