• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.63 no.6
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• pp.1-16
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• 2021

Global warming due to climate change is expected to significantly affect the hydrological cycle of agriculture. Therefore, in order to predict the magnitude of climate impact on agricultural water resources in the future, it is necessary to estimate the water demand for irrigation as the climate change. This study aimed at evaluating the future changes in water demand for irrigation under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios for paddy rice in Gimje, South Korea. The APEX-Paddy model developed for the simulation of paddy environment was used. The model was calibrated and validated using the H₂O flux observation data by the eddy covariance system installed at the field. Sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) collected from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and downscaled using Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) were used. The future climate data obtained were subjected to APEX-Paddy model simulation to evaluate the future water demand for irrigation at the paddy field. Changes in water demand for irrigation were evaluated for Near-future-NF (2011-2040), Mid-future-MF (2041-2070), and Far-future-FF (2071-2100) by comparing with historical data (1981-2010). The result revealed that, water demand for irrigation would increase by 2.3%, 4.8%, and 7.5% for NF, MF and FF respectively under SSP2-4.5 as compared to the historical demand. Under SSP5-8.5, the water demand for irrigation will worsen by 1.6%, 5.7%, 9.7%, for NF, MF and FF respectively. The increasing water demand for irrigating paddy field into the future is due to increasing evapotranspiration resulting from rising daily mean temperatures and solar radiation under the changing climate.

• 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1996.10a
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• pp.365-366
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• 1996

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.139-167
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• 2009

A new public insurance for long-term care was introduced in July 2008 to provide for the rising demand for long-term care as the population is aging rapidly. The demand for long-term care is expected to rise further because more and more elderly are living alone or in households with only other elderly, such as his/her spouse, without informal care of their adult children. Even when the elderly are living together with their adult children, daughters and daughters in law, once the main informal care-givers, are not available because they choose to become economically active and work more over time. Experiences of countries such as Japan and Germany with similar public long-term care insurance scheme highlight the importance of detailed analysis on the demand for long-term care for the financial stability of the insurance scheme. Countries which had underestimated the demand for long-term care at the time of adopting the scheme went through financial instability of insurance schemes. This study analyzes the determinants of the demand for long-term care using data from the second demonstration project (April 2006~April 2007) of the long-term care insurance scheme for the elderly in Korea. Taking full advantage of detailed data on the long-term care, this paper analyzes the eligibility for the long-term care insurance scheme and its use. According to study results, even when common diseases among the elderly such as cancer, diabetes, arthritis, dementia, hypertension, etc. are controlled together with other individual and socioeconomic factors, limitations the elderly are faced with in their twelve activities of daily living significantly affect the eligibility for the Korean Long-term Care Insurance Scheme. This means that limitations in daily living activities are more critical than common diseases among the elderly are to the eligibility for the Korean Long-term Care Insurance Scheme. Bathing and toileting problems have been found to be the most important factor affecting the eligibility for the insurance scheme, followed by eating, dressing and moving around inside the house. Moreover, the choices of whether to use long-term care and which to use between home care and institutional care are found to be significantly influenced by health status and various socioeconomic factors of the elderly. In particular, those with more limitations in daily living activities and the female elderly are more likely to use long-term care and institutional care rather than home care. As for home care users, those living alone or with adult children and those with monthly household income of more than 500,000 won are more likely to use home care. Most importantly, even when the monthly household income of the elderly is controlled, the elderly recipients of the National Basic Living Security, who are not charged for long-term care, are more likely to choose home care. This implies that price as well as income is a critical factor for the decision to use long-term care. Further study on the duration of long-term care use will surely enhance the long-term care policy, when panel data is available for simultaneous analysis of the likelihood of long-term care use and its use duration.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.214-222
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• 2015

Jeju International Airport has become the most delayed airport in Korea, due to increased demand in air passengers and unexpected local weather condition. Observing the demands continuously grow for a decade, the airport is expected to be saturated in the near future. As a part of effort to prepare effective and timely measure for this expected situation, airport planners seeks the annual runway capacity, i.e., the appropriate number of flight operations in a given year with tolerable delay. In practice, the FAA formula is frequently adopted for the capacity estimation. The method, however, has intrinsic issues: 1) the hourly capacity imbedded in the formula is not clearly defined and thus the estimated value is vulnerable to be subjective judgement, and 2) the formula doesn't consider aircraft delay resulted from runway congestion. In this paper, we explain a novel method for estimating the daily runway capacity and then converting to the annual capacity taking into account the aircraft delay. In this paper, average delay of aircraft was measured using microscopic air traffic simulation model. Daily capacity of the runways were analyzed based on the simulation outputs and the method to assess the yearly capacity is introduced. Using a microscopic simulation model named TAAM, we measure the average aircraft delay at various levels of flight demand, and then estimate the practical daily runway capacity. The estimated daily and annual runway capacities of Jeju airport are about 460 operations a day which is equal to 169,000 operations year. The paper discusses how to verify the simulation model, and also suggests potential enhancement of the method.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.1087-1094
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• 2013

This study aims at enhancing the objective estimation of social cost of air quality due to mobile emission. More specifically, it examines the difference between the daily oriented and hourly oriented estimation results of social air quality cost and draws implications from the comparative analysis. The result indicates that the social cost of air quality differs up to approximately 24 times depending on the analysis time period. Moneywise, the difference between daily and hourly assignments amounts to the average of 653.5 billion won whereas only 1% of error occurred in the estimation result based on peak and nonpeak based hourly assignment. This study reaffirms the need for time-based travel demand management for emission reduction, and confirms the feasibility of emission estimation by travel demand forecasting method over the conventional method employed by the CAPSS.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.289-293
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• 1993

To comply with the increasing demand from the agricultural industry for more accurate short-range weather information, statistical method for forecasting soil temperature was presented. Regression equation was derived to predict daily mean 10cm soil temperature for any day the year. The equation was based upon 10-daily mean 10cm soil temperature(10DM 10ST) for 6 years(1982~1987) at grass in Suweon. The possibility of estimating daily mean 10cm soil temperature was examined.

• Journal of Physiology & Pathology in Korean Medicine
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.328-332
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• 2006

This study aims to provide definitions and standardization for necessities that elderly people can use conveniently and properly in their daily lives and classify necessities for different purposes. First, standard terminologies were defined by reviewing the literature and the relevant laws related to daily necessities for the elders. Secondly, a concept for necessities for the elders was also defined through consultation with experts. Lastly, the elderly's necessities were selected and classified. The elderly's necessities are defined as aids that ordinary elderly people in normal aging process need for the purpose of the convenience of life and aids they wear or use to maintain or improve their health. In this study, the elderly's necessities are divided into three categories: necessities of health, necessities of Oriental medical aids and necessities of daily living. Each category is further classified as follows: Necessities of health include aids for personal medical treatment, aids for personal care and protection and aids for recreation. Necessities of Oriental medical aids include aids for personal medical treatment, aids for personal care and protection and others. Necessities of daily living include aids for personal care and protection, aids for personal mobility, aids for housekeeping, furnishings, aids for communication, information and signalling, aids for handling products and goods and aids for recreation. The classification of the elderly's necessities in this study can be used as basic information for further studies of demand for necessities for the elderly. The results will lay the foundation for a standardization system for the elderly's necessities and the development of silver industry.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.13-25
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• 2017

Apartments are a major type of residence and their number has continuously increased. Apartments have multiple meanings in that for public they are not only for residence purpose but for investment, a major commodity for construction firms and a critical policy measure of public well-fare for the government. Therefore, it is critical to understand and analyze trends in apartments demand for pro-active actions. The objective of the study is to analyze and identify key trends in apartments demand based on big data drawn from articles of major daily newspapers. The study identifies 17 major trends from seven themes including development, trade, sale in lots, location requirements, policy, residential environment, and investment and profit. The research methods in the study can be usefully applied to further studies for various issues in relation to the construction industry.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.81-91
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• 2012

The world has been replacing fast fossil fuels vehicles with electric vehicles(EVs) to cope with climate change. The government set a goal which EVs will be substitute at least 10% of the domestic small vehicles with EVs until 2020, and will try to build electric charging infrastructures in apartments with the revision the law of 'the housing construction standards'. In apartments the EVs charging infrastructure and parking space is, essential to accomplish the goal. But the studies on EVs demand are few. In this study, we predicted that the demand for EVs using time-series analysis of statistical data, survey results for apartments residents in the metropolitan area. As a result, the ratio of the EVs appeared to be 6~21% for the total vehicles in a rental apartments for the years 2020, 21~39% in apartments for sales. For the EVs, the maximum power required for 1,000 households in rental apartment is predicted to be about 4200 kwh on a daily basis, while the maximum power in the apartment for sales is predicted to be 7800kwh.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.107-120
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• 2023

The public bicycle of Seoul, Ttareungyi, was launched at October 2015 to reduce traffic and carbon emissions in downtown Seoul and now, 2023 Oct, the cumulative number of user is upto 4 million and the number of bike is about 43,000 with about 2700 stations. However, super growth of Ttareungyi has caused the several problems, especially demand/supply mismatch, and thus the Seoul citizen has been complained about out of stock. In this point, this study conducted a real time demand forecasting model to prevent stock out bike at stations. To develop the model, the research team gathered the rental·return transaction data of 20,000 bikes in whole 1600 stations for 2019 year and then analyzed bike usage, user behavior, bike stations, and so on. The forecasting model using machine learning is developed to predict the amount of rental/return on each bike station every hour through daily learning with the recent 90 days data with the weather information. The model is validated with MAE and RMSE of bike stations, and tested as a prototype service on the Seoul Bike Management System(Mobile App) for the relocation team of Seoul City.