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Quantitative uncertainty analysis for the climate change impact assessment using the uncertainty delta method (기후변화 영향평가에서의 Uncertainty Delta Method를 활용한 정량적 불확실성 분석)

  • Lee, Jae-Kyoung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.spc
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    • pp.1079-1089
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    • 2018
  • The majority of existing studies for quantifying uncertainties in climate change impact assessments suggest only the uncertainties of each stage, and not the total uncertainty and its propagation in the whole procedure. Therefore, this study has proposed a new method, the Uncertainty Delta Method (UDM), which can quantify uncertainties using the variances of projections (as the UDM is derived from the first-order Taylor series expansion), to allow for a comprehensive quantification of uncertainty at each stage and also to provide the levels of uncertainty propagation, as follows: total uncertainty, the level of uncertainty increase at each stage, and the percentage of uncertainty at each stage. For quantifying uncertainties at each stage as well as the total uncertainty, all the stages - two emission scenarios (ES), three Global Climate Models (GCMs), two downscaling techniques, and two hydrological models - of the climate change assessment for water resources are conducted. The total uncertainty took 5.45, and the ESs had the largest uncertainty (4.45). Additionally, uncertainties are propagated stage by stage because of their gradual increase: 5.45 in total uncertainty consisted of 4.45 in emission scenarios, 0.45 in climate models, 0.27 in downscaling techniques, and 0.28 in hydrological models. These results indicate the projection of future water resources can be very different depending on which emission scenarios are selected. Moreover, using Fractional Uncertainty Method (FUM) by Hawkins and Sutton (2009), the major uncertainty contributor (emission scenario: FUM uncertainty 0.52) matched with the results of UDM. Therefore, the UDM proposed by this study can support comprehension and appropriate analysis of the uncertainty surrounding the climate change impact assessment, and make possible a better understanding of the water resources projection for future climate change.

Associations of Elderly Onset Headache With Occurrence of Poor Functional Outcome, Cardiovascular Disease, and Cognitive Dysfunction During Long-term Follow-up

  • Cho, Soo-Jin;Kim, Byung-Kun;Kim, Byung-Su;Kim, Jae-Moon;Kim, Soo-Kyoung;Moon, Heui-Soo;Cha, Myoung-Jin;Park, Kwang-Yeol;Sohn, Jong-Hee;Chu, Min Kyung;Song, Tae-Jin
    • Annals of Geriatric Medicine and Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.176-183
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    • 2018
  • Background: Although the frequency and intensity of headaches decrease in older adults, headaches in this population are still an important neurological disorder. The purpose of this study was to investigate the associations of headache characteristics in older adults with the development of cardiovascular disease and cognitive dysfunction. Methods: We prospectively enrolled 125 older (${\geq}65$ years old) patients with headache who were making their first visit to outpatient clinics and who had no prior history of cognitive dysfunction from 11 hospitals in Korea between August 2014 and February 2015. We investigated the occurrence of newly developed/or recurrent headache, cardiovascular disease, cognitive dysfunction, and poor functional outcomes. Results: The mean age of all included patients was 72.6 years, 68.8% were women, and 43 (34.4%) had newly developed/or recurrent headache during follow-up. During a median follow-up of 31 months (interquartile range, 28-34 months), 21 participants (16.8%) experienced cardiovascular disease, and 26 (20.8%) developed cognitive dysfunction. Upon multivariate analysis and after adjusting for sex, age, and other factors, presence of newly developed/or recurrent headache was found to be associated with cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio [HR], 4.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28-12.61; p=0.017) and frequency of headache for the recent 3 months was related with cognitive dysfunction (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.00-1.09; p=0.017) and poor functional outcomes (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.11; p=0.011). Conclusion: Our study demonstrated that there is an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, cognitive dysfunction, and poor functional outcomes in older patients with frequent, newly developed, or recurrent headache.

A Study on the Preservice Teacher Education in the Multicultural Society (다문화사회에서의 예비교사교육 방향 탐색)

  • Ahn, Byung-Hwan
    • Journal of vocational education research
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2010
  • Preservice teachers should learn the knowledge and skill necessary to meet intellectual, social and personal needs of students with culturally diverse background. Thus this study was to examine preservice teachers' attitudes and perception about multicultural education. The participants of the study comprised of 297 preservice teachers who were in the teacher preparation course. The questionnaire items consisted of 36 statements. The data were analyzed by factor analysis, correlation and t, F test. The results are as follows. First, on the basis of above, with respect to the reliability data, it is apparent that preservice teacher survey is adequate1y reliable. Second, needs of multicultural education and attitudes about cultural diversity of preservice teachers showed the positive correlation. Third, personal attitudes of preservice teachers about multicultural diversity were generally positive. Fourth, preservice teachers' expectation about the adequacy of curriculum in teacher preparation was low in compared with other factors. Attitudes about cultural diversity and attitudes preventing multicultural education showed the negative correlation. Based on this results, multicultural education should be reflected in the curriculum to meet diverse needs of preservice teachers. And teachers' attitudes and beliefs have an impact on their behaviors in the classroom, teachers preparation program for changes of their attitudes and beliefs should be developed.

Dietary Life, Vitamin D Status and Blood Clinical Indices of University Laboratory Workers (대학 연구활동종사자의 식생활실태, 비타민 D 영양상태 및 혈액 임상지표 분석)

  • Hwang, Jung Hyun;Lee, Hong Mie;Kim, Jung Hee
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.245-256
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: Although the number of laboratory workers is constantly increasing every year, few studies have been conducted on the health and nutritional status of these research workers. This study determined the health status of laboratory workers by analyzing their anthropometric indices, dietary life, vitamin D status and blood clinical indices. Methods: The subjects consisted of 100 female laboratory workers. This study investigated their diet, anthropometric indices, vitamin D status and blood clinical indices. The subjects were divided into two groups according to their duration of working in a laboratory (<1 year, $${\geq}_-1year$$). Results: The average age and body mass index (BMI) of subjects were 23.18 years and $21.51kg/m^2$, respectively Those subjects with over 1 year employment ($${\geq}_-1year$$) had a significantly higher waist-hip ratio than that of the subjects with the less than 1 year employment (<1 year). The mean serum vitamin D level of all the subjects was 10.04 ng/mL, which is close to a level of vitamin D deficiency. There was a significantly higher average intake of calories in the over 1 year employment group as compared to that of the less than 1 year employment group. The frequency of eating sweet snacks was significantly higher for the over 1 year employment group. The correlation analysis showed a significant positive correlation between the serum 25-(OH)-vitamin D level and the time of exposure to sunlight, while dietary intake of vitamin D did not show correlation with the serum 25-(OH)-vitamin D level. However, the serum 25-(OH)-vitamin D level was also negatively correlated with both the percentage of body fat and visceral fat. Conclusions: Laboratory workers are a very high risk group in terms of their nutritional status of vitamin D. Therefore, they need greater time of exposure to sunlight as well as increasing their dietary consumption of vitamin D. In addition, it is important for laboratory worker to practice regular and balanced dietary habits in order to maintain a healthy life.

Priority-Based Random Access control for M2M Service in 3GPP LTE-A System (3GPP LTE-A 시스템에서 M2M 서비스를 위한 우선순위 기반 임의접속제어)

  • Kim, Nam-Sun
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.406-412
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we propose two algorithms for classifying services with similar delay characteristics into three classes and allocating radio resources according to priority in LTE-A system where H2H and M2M services coexist. The first is to allocate resources from the higher priority class to the lower priority class, and each class gives priority to H2H over M2M, and the other is to give priority to H2H regardless of delay characteristics except for the class with the highest priority. The RA success probability was analyzed according to the access rate(${\alpha}$) of M2M devices in each class. In comparison with the conventional systems, it was improved from 0.5 to 0.52 for ${\alpha}_{2M}=0.05$ in two classes. In the three classes, the success probability was slightly increased from 0.5 to 0.57 for ${\alpha}_{2M}={\alpha}_{3M}=1$ and from 0.5 to 0.58 for ${\alpha}_{2M}=0.5$ and ${\alpha}_{3M}=0.1$. Although 6 services are considered in the proposed scheme, the RA success probability is almost similar to the previous scheme because the average arrival rate of H2H of each class is set to the same.

A Study on the Acceptance Factors of the Introduction of a Smart IoT Technology for Well-being Companion Animal (반려동물 웰빙을 위한 스마트 IoT 기술 도입 수용요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Sung Kwang;Kim, Hoontae;Ji, Yong Gu;Lee, Jeongyoung
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.143-163
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to identify acceptance factors and influencing factors of respondents' adoption of smart IoT technology to companion animal health based on the integrated technology acceptance model. Based on the previous studies, we constructed the hypotheses by defining the technical factors, social factors, control variables, and mediating variables (UTAUT), and set the hypotheses between the independent variables of each factor and the dependent intention. A research model was designed to verify the relationship between variables. We developed questionnaires on the items and verified them through data collected from 494 people. As a result, product design, quality of service, product performance, and quality service of technological factors had a significant effects on performance expectancy and effort expectancy. However, product safety, product function awareness, and product price did not significantly affect performance expectancy and effort expectancy. Social influence had significant effects on cognitive effect, welfare system, and welfare facilities. In conclusion, the comparative analysis of technical factors and social factors showed that social factors have more significant effects on welfare systems and facilities.

A Study on the Conceptual Design of Integrated Management System for Public SW Project Information (공공 소프트웨어(SW) 사업정보 통합 관리체계의 개념적 설계에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Kitae;Park, Chankwon
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.199-216
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    • 2019
  • The public SW market is 3 trillion won, which is less than 10% of the total SW market. However, due to the nature of the domestic market, it is an important market with a relatively large impact on small and medium-sized software companies. In this market, government is operating the Public SW Project Demand Forecasting System in order to support the marketing activities of small and medium sized SW companies and establish a fair market order. The current system has limitations such as lack of user convenience, insufficient analysis capability and less business connection. This study was conducted to identify the problems of these systems and to propose a new system for improving the convenience of users and expanding the information utilization of SMEs. To this end, we analyzed the requirements of each stakeholder. We proposed the 2-phased forecasting cycle, the management cycle, and the system life cycle of public SW projects and created a unified identifier (UID) so that the information of those projects can be identified and linked among them. As a result, an integrated reference model of project information management based on system life cycle was developed, which can explain the demand forecasting and project information, and the improved processes was also designed to implement them. Through the result of this study, it is expected that integrated management of public SW projects will be possible.

The Effect of Export Volume, Export Price Index and Treasury Bond Interest Rate on Export Amount (수출물동량과 수출물가지수, 국고채금리가 수출금액에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Shin-Joong;Choi, Jeong-Il
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.9
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    • pp.133-140
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    • 2019
  • Following the recent US trade deficit, the trade war began between Korea and Japan in July. Korea's trade dependence is about 60% or more, indicating high export dependence and import dependence. The purpose of this study is to examine export amount, export volume, export price index, Treasury bond interest rate and analyze how index affects export amount. This study attempts to analyze the comovement and volatility with export amount. For this purpose, monthly data for each indicator were selected for a total of 234 months from January 2000 to June 2019. As a result of analysis, exports amount and exports volume showed very high comovement, exports amount and interest rates showed low comovement, but exports amount and exports prices showed very low comovement. In the future, Korea should continue to increase exports amount in view of its high dependence on trade, along with policies to expand the domestic market. To this end, strategy to increase exports volume should be presented. Korea should increase the logistics environment and competitiveness of each port and airport, improve domestic and overseas network construction and support services of logistics companies.

A Study on the Prediction of the Construction Cost in Planning Stage of Local Housing Union Project (지역주택조합사업 기획단계의 공사비 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jin-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.653-659
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    • 2018
  • The accurate prediction of construction cost is a key factor in a project's success. However, it is hard to predict the construction costs in the planning stages rapidly and precisely when drawings, specifications, construction cost calculation statements are incomplete, among other factors. Accurate construction-cost prediction in the planning stage of a project is also important for project feasibility studies and successful completion. Therefore, various techniques have been applied to accurately predict construction costs at an early stage when project information is limited. There are many factors that affect the construction cost prediction. This paper presents a construction-cost prediction method as multiple regression model with seven construction factors as independent variables. The method was used to predict the construction cost of a local housing union project, and the error rate was 4.87%. It is not possible to compare the cost of the project at the planning stage of the local housing union project, but it has high prediction accuracy compared to the unit price of an existing unit area. It is likely to be applied in construction-cost calculation work and to contribute to the establishment of the budget for the local housing union project.

Image enhancement in ultrasound passive cavitation imaging using centroid and flatness of received channel data (수신 채널 신호의 무게중심과 평탄도를 이용한 초음파 수동 공동 영상의 화질 개선)

  • Jeong, Mok Kun;Kwon, Sung Jae;Choi, Min Joo
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.450-458
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    • 2019
  • Passive cavitation imaging method is used to observe the ultrasonic waves generated when a group of bubbles collapses. A problem with passive cavitation imaging is a low resolution and large side lobe levels. Since ultrasound signals generated by passive cavitation take the form of a pulse, the amplitude distribution of signals received across the receive channels varies depending on the direction of incidence. Both the centroid and flatness were calculated to determine weights at imaging points in order to discriminate between the main and side lobe signals from the signal amplitude distribution of the received channel data and to reduce the side lobe levels. The centroid quantifies how the channel data are distributed across the receive channel, and the flatness measures the variance of the channel data. We applied the centroid weight and the flatness to the passive cavitation image constructed using the delay-and-sum focusing and minimum variance beamforming methods to improve the image quality. Using computer simulation and experiment, we show that the application of weighting in delay-and-sum and minimum variance beamforming reduces side lobe levels.