• Title/Summary/Keyword: Customer Churn

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A Methodology of Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty Segmentation (이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 방법론)

  • Kim, Hyung Su;Hong, Seung Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2020
  • Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.

Customer Churn Identifying Model Based on Dual Customer Value Gap

  • Hou, Lun;Tang, Xiaowo
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2010
  • The customer churn and the forecast of customer churn have been important research topics for a long time in the academic domain of customer relationship management. The customer value is studied to construct a gap model based on dual customer values; a basic description of customer value is given, then the gaps between products and services in different periods for the customers and companies are analyzed. The main factors that influence the perceived customer value are analyzed to define the "recognized value gap" and a gap model for the dual customer value is constructed. Based on the dual customer gap a con-ceptual model to determine potential churn customers is proposed in the paper.

A Study of Customer Churn by Analysing CRM Customer Data (CRM 고객데이터 분석을 통한 이탈고객 연구)

  • Kim, Sang Yong;Song, Ji Yeon;Lee, Gi Soon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.21-42
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    • 2005
  • Customer Relationship Management (CRM) is a corporate marketing strategy maintaining and managing customers. And with CRM companies maximize the customer's value through a series of processes of new customer retention, VIP customer retention, customer value increase, potential customer activation, and customers for lifetime by collecting the customer information and taking advantage of it effectively. In particular, as the competitive environment is changing rapidly and getting more intense, maintaining the customer retention through customer churn management becomes more important in order to increase the customer value for maximizing the company's profit and to build up the relationship with customers. For example, the financial industry has managed the customer churn with the concept of customer segmentation. Recently the customer retention and churn management is becoming increasingly important in all business fields as well as financial industry since the companies expect the effect of preventing the customer churn by identifying characteristics of customers. However, despite the increasing interest and importance of the management of the customer churn, not many of studies are systematically executed by analyzing the data of customer churn. In this study we analyze the actual data of CRM activities for the customer retention, specifically the data of TV home-shopping. By doing so, we hope to identify the differences of demographic attributes and transaction specific characteristics in consumer behaviors between the churning customer and the retained customers. In addition, we try to find out the variables which can impact the churning of the customers and to predict the churn rate of individual customer through our proposed model of customer churn. In the end, based on our findings we suggest the possible marketing strategies for TV home-shopping companies.

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Determinants of Customers Churn in Emerging Telecom Markets: A Study Of Indian Cellular Subscribers

  • Kavita, Pathak;Rastogi, Sanjay
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.91-111
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    • 2007
  • Marketing is said to be a zero sum game i.e. each gain of customer for a firm is always at the expense of some other firm's customers. Therefore in a marketplace churn is a natural occurrence. Churn in Indian telecom market is among the highest in growing telecom markets. By using binary logistics regression analysis based models based covering a sample of 822 Indian telecom subscribers; this paper attempts to examine the determinants of churn. The future churn is found to be dependent on satisfaction level of the customer with the service provider, attitude and loyalty of the customer variables, intended churn (i.e. intention to churn) and current loyalty (defined as intention to recommend) and distraction (i.e. intention to experiment).

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A MapReduce-based Artificial Neural Network Churn Prediction for Music Streaming Service

  • Chen, Min
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.55-60
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    • 2022
  • Churn prediction is a critical long-term problem for many business like music, games, magazines etc. The churn probability can be used to study many aspects of a business including proactive customer marketing, sales prediction, and churn-sensitive pricing models. It is quite challenging to design machine learning model to predict the customer churn accurately due to the large volume of the time-series data and the temporal issues of the data. In this paper, a parallel artificial neural network is proposed to create a highly-accurate customer churn model on a large customer dataset. The proposed model has achieved significant improvement in the accuracy of churn prediction. The scalability and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is also studied.

Feature Selection Effect of Classification Tree Using Feature Importance : Case of Credit Card Customer Churn Prediction (특성중요도를 활용한 분류나무의 입력특성 선택효과 : 신용카드 고객이탈 사례)

  • Yoon Hanseong
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2024
  • For the purpose of predicting credit card customer churn accurately through data analysis, a model can be constructed with various machine learning algorithms, including decision tree. And feature importance has been utilized in selecting better input features that can improve performance of data analysis models for several application areas. In this paper, a method of utilizing feature importance calculated from the MDI method and its effects are investigated in the credit card customer churn prediction problem with classification trees. Compared with several random feature selections from case data, a set of input features selected from higher value of feature importance shows higher predictive power. It can be an efficient method for classifying and choosing input features necessary for improving prediction performance. The method organized in this paper can be an alternative to the selection of input features using feature importance in composing and using classification trees, including credit card customer churn prediction.

Customer Retention Strategies of Domestic Wireless Telecommunication Service Providers at the Introduction of MNP (번호 이동성 시행 하에서 국내 이동통신 사업자들의 고객 유지 전략)

  • Yang, Hee-Tae;Choi, Mun-Kee
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.28 no.2B
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    • pp.157-169
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    • 2003
  • The customer retention is one of major goals for telecommunication service providers as MNP(Mobile Number Portability) would be enforced soon. The purpose of this study is to construct a customer retention model by (1) extracting the statistically significant determinants that influence on the Out-bounding churn and In-bounding churn separately and (2) ranking the importance of sub-factors to minimize Out-bounding churn and to satisfy In-bounding churn. This model applies to domestic wireless telecommunication service providers and customer retention strategies are suggested based on the result.

Analysis to Customer Churn Provoker's Roles Using Call Network of a Telecom Company (소셜 네트워크 분석을 기반으로 한 이동통신 잠재고객 이탈에 대한 연구)

  • Chun, Heuiju;Leem, Byunghak
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.23-36
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    • 2013
  • In this study, we investigate how churn customers (who play a central connector or broker role) affect other customers' churn in their call networks with ego-network analysis using call data of a mobile telecom company in Korea. As a result of investigating Reciprocal Network, we found a relationship of attrition among churn customers. Churn provokers who influence other customers' attrition exist in customer churn networks. The characteristics of churn provokers is that they play a central connector and broker role in their groups. The proportion of churn provokers increases and the churn provoker's influence increases because the network is a reciprocal one.

A Securities Company's Customer Churn Prediction Model and Causal Inference with SHAP Value (증권 금융 상품 거래 고객의 이탈 예측 및 원인 추론)

  • Na, Kwangtek;Lee, Jinyoung;Kim, Eunchan;Lee, Hyochan
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.215-229
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    • 2020
  • The interest in machine learning is growing in all industries, but it is difficult to apply it to real-world tasks because of inexplicability. This paper introduces a case of developing a financial customer churn prediction model for a securities company, and introduces the research results on an attempt to develop a machine learning model that can be explained using the SHAP Value methodology and derivation of interpretability. In this study, a total of six customer churn models are compared and analyzed, and the cause of customer churn is inferred through the classification and data analysis of SHAP Value and the type of customer asset change. Based on the results of this study, it would be possible to use it as a basis for comprehensive judgment, such as using the Value of the deviation prediction result that can infer the cause of the marketing manager's actual customer marketing in the future and establishing a target marketing strategy for each customer.

A Priority Analysis of Card Customer Churn Factors Using AHP : Focusing on Management Support, Card Recruitment, Customer Service Personnel's Perspective (AHP를 이용한 카드고객 이탈 요인의 우선순위 분석 : 경영지원·카드모집·고객서비스 집단을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jungwoo;Song, Young-gue;Han, Chang Hee
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.35-52
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    • 2021
  • Nowadays data-based decision making is emerging as the center of the business environment paradigm, but many companies do not have data-driven decision-making systems. It has also been studied that using an expert's intuition in decision making can be more efficient in terms of speed and cost, compared to analytical decision making. The goal of this study is to analyze customer churn factors using a group of experts within a financial company from the viewpoint of decision-making efficiency. We applied a debit card 'A', product of the National Credit Union Federation of Korea. The churn factors of all the financial expert groups were examined. Also. the difference in each group (management support, card recruitment, customer service group) was analyzed. We expect that this study will be helpful in the practical aspects of managers whose environments is lack data-oriented infrastructure and culture.