• Title/Summary/Keyword: Current Power

Search Result 13,782, Processing Time 0.232 seconds

Classification Algorithm-based Prediction Performance of Order Imbalance Information on Short-Term Stock Price (분류 알고리즘 기반 주문 불균형 정보의 단기 주가 예측 성과)

  • Kim, S.W.
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.28 no.4
    • /
    • pp.157-177
    • /
    • 2022
  • Investors are trading stocks by keeping a close watch on the order information submitted by domestic and foreign investors in real time through Limit Order Book information, so-called price current provided by securities firms. Will order information released in the Limit Order Book be useful in stock price prediction? This study analyzes whether it is significant as a predictor of future stock price up or down when order imbalances appear as investors' buying and selling orders are concentrated to one side during intra-day trading time. Using classification algorithms, this study improved the prediction accuracy of the order imbalance information on the short-term price up and down trend, that is the closing price up and down of the day. Day trading strategies are proposed using the predicted price trends of the classification algorithms and the trading performances are analyzed through empirical analysis. The 5-minute KOSPI200 Index Futures data were analyzed for 4,564 days from January 19, 2004 to June 30, 2022. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, order imbalance information has a significant impact on the current stock prices. Second, the order imbalance information observed in the early morning has a significant forecasting power on the price trends from the early morning to the market closing time. Third, the Support Vector Machines algorithm showed the highest prediction accuracy on the day's closing price trends using the order imbalance information at 54.1%. Fourth, the order imbalance information measured at an early time of day had higher prediction accuracy than the order imbalance information measured at a later time of day. Fifth, the trading performances of the day trading strategies using the prediction results of the classification algorithms on the price up and down trends were higher than that of the benchmark trading strategy. Sixth, except for the K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm, all investment performances using the classification algorithms showed average higher total profits than that of the benchmark strategy. Seventh, the trading performances using the predictive results of the Logical Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and XGBoost algorithms showed higher results than the benchmark strategy in the Sharpe Ratio, which evaluates both profitability and risk. This study has an academic difference from existing studies in that it documented the economic value of the total buy & sell order volume information among the Limit Order Book information. The empirical results of this study are also valuable to the market participants from a trading perspective. In future studies, it is necessary to improve the performance of the trading strategy using more accurate price prediction results by expanding to deep learning models which are actively being studied for predicting stock prices recently.

Development and Testing of the Model of Health Promotion Behavior in Predicting Exercise Behavior

  • O'Donnell, Michael P.
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
    • /
    • v.2 no.1
    • /
    • pp.31-61
    • /
    • 2000
  • Introduction. Despite the fact that half of premature deaths are caused by unhealthy lifestyles such as smoking tobacco, sedentary lifestyle, alcohol and drug abuse and poor nutrition, there are no theoretical models which accurately explain these health promotion related behaviors. This study tests a new model of health behavior called the Model of Health Promotion Behavior. This model draws on elements and frameworks suggested by the Health Belief Model, Social Cognitive Theory, the Theory of Planned Action and the Health Promotion Model. This model is intended as a general model of behavior but this first test of the model uses amount of exercise as the outcome behavior. Design. This study utilized a cross sectional mail-out, mail-back survey design to determine the elements within the model that best explained intentions to exercise and those that best explained amount of exercise. A follow-up questionnaire was mailed to all respondents to the first questionnaire about 10 months after the initial survey. A pretest was conducted to refine the questionnaire and a pilot study to test the protocols and assumptions used to calculate the required sample size. Sample. The sample was drawn from 2000 eligible participants at two blue collar (utility company and part of a hospital) and two white collar (bank and pharmaceutical) companies located in Southeastern Michigan. Both white collar site had employee fitness centers and all four sites offered health promotion programs. In the first survey, 982 responses were received (49.1%) after two mailings to non-respondents and one additional mailing to secure answers to missing data, with 845 usable cases for the analyzing current intentions and 918 usable cases for the explaining of amount of current exercise analysis. In the follow-up survey, questionnaires were mailed to the 982 employees who responded to the initial survey. After one follow-up mailing to non-respondents, and one mailing to secure answers to missing data, 697 (71.0%) responses were received, with 627 (63.8%) usable cases to predict intentions and 673 (68.5%) usable cases to predict amount of exercise. Measures. The questionnaire in the initial survey had 15 scales and 134 items; these scales measured each of the variables in the model. Thirteen of the scales were drawn from the literature, all had Cronbach's alpha scores above .74 and all but three had scores above .80. The questionnaire in the second mailing had only 10 items, and measured only outcome variables. Analysis. The analysis included calculation of scale scores, Cronbach's alpha, zero order correlations, and factor analysis, ordinary least square analysis, hierarchical tests of interaction terms and path analysis, and comparisons of results based on a random split of the data and splits based on gender and employer site. The power of the regression analysis was .99 at the .01 significance level for the model as a whole. Results. Self efficacy and Non-Health Benefits emerged as the most powerful predictors of Intentions to exercise, together explaining approximately 19% of the variance in future Intentions. Intentions, and the interaction of Intentions with Barriers, with Support of Friends, and with Self Efficacy were the most consistent predictors of amount of future exercise, together explaining 38% of the variance. With the inclusion of Prior Exercise History the model explained 52% of the variance in amount of exercise 10 months later. There were very few differences in the variables that emerged as important predictors of intentions or exercise in the different employer sites or between males and females. Discussion. This new model is viable in predicting intentions to exercise and amount of exercise, both in absolute terms and when compared to existing models.

  • PDF

Estimation of potential distribution of sweet potato weevil (Cylas formicarius) and climate change impact using MaxEnt (MaxEnt를 활용한 개미바구미(Cylas formicarius)의 잠재 분포와 기후변화 영향 모의)

  • Jinsol Hong;Heewon Hong;Sumin Pi;Soohyun Lee;Jae Ha Shin;Yongeun Kim;Kijong Cho
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
    • /
    • v.41 no.4
    • /
    • pp.505-518
    • /
    • 2023
  • The key to invasive pest management lies in preemptive action. However, most current research using species distribution models is conducted after an invasion has occurred. This study modeled the potential distribution of the globally notorious sweet potato pest, the sweet potato weevil(Cylas formicarius), that has not yet invaded Korea using MaxEnt. Using global occurrence data, bioclimatic variables, and topsoil characteristics, MaxEnt showed high explanatory power as both the training and test areas under the curve exceeded 0.9. Among the environmental variables used in this study, minimum temperature in the coldest month (BIO06), precipitation in the driest month (BIO14), mean diurnal range (BIO02), and bulk density (BDOD) were identified as key variables. The predicted global distribution showed high values in most countries where the species is currently present, with a significant potential invasion risk in most South American countries where C. formicarius is not yet present. In Korea, Jeju Island and the southwestern coasts of Jeollanam-do showed very high probabilities. The impact of climate change under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios indicated an expansion along coasts as climate change progresses. By applying the 10th percentile minimum training presence rule, the potential area of occurrence was estimated at 1,439 km2 under current climate conditions and could expand up to 9,485 km2 under the SSP585 scenario. However, the model predicted that an inland invasion would not be serious. The results of this study suggest a need to focus on the risk of invasion in islands and coastal areas.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.83-98
    • /
    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

  • PDF

Quality Characteristics of Takju, Yakju, and Spirit made from Phellinus linteus and Ginger (상황버섯국과 생강국으로 제조한 탁주, 약주, 증류주의 품질 특성)

  • Lee, Jeong-Hoon;Choi, Hee-Suk;Son, Heung-Soo;Lee, Yun-Hi;Noh, Jeang-Mi;Kim, Jae-Min;Jeong, Jae-Hong
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
    • /
    • v.21 no.6
    • /
    • pp.103-119
    • /
    • 2015
  • This study was carried out to evaluate the quality of characteristics of Takju, Yakju, and spirit made from Bunkuk(flour), Phellinus linteus and Ginger kuk. The sacharogenic power of Nuruks and pH, brix, acidity, cell numbers of yeast, and alcohol content of Deotsuls were analysed; flavors, organic acids, and sensory evaluation of Takju, Yakju, and spirit were employed in the analysis of this current study. Results showed that the saccharogenic power of Phellinus linteus kuk after fermentation of Nuruks showed the highest level, and Phellinus linteus kuk and Ginger kuk showed the same level after dry Nuruks. During fermentation of Deotsuls, pH and brix decreased with increased fermentation time, while acidity increased with increased fermentation time. Cell numbers of yeast were found to be at the highest level in Phellinus linteus kuk on the first day of fermentation, and it was the same result in the final stage(p<0.05). Alcohol content increased with an increase in fermentation time, and showed no significant difference between control and test in the final stage of fermentation. In terms of analysis of flavor components, acetone and n-amyl alcohol were not detected in Takju, Yakju, and spirit. n-butanol was detected at the highest value, followed by i-amyl alcohol. Fusel oil was detected at the highest level in spirit fermented by Bunkuk. In analysis of organic acids, lactic acid showed the highest content followed by acetic acid. Very small amounts of acetic acid were detected in the spirit and other organic acids were not detected. In sensory evaluation, Takju, Yakju, and spirit made from Phellinus linteus kuk showed the highest score. As a result of this study, Phellinus linteus kuk presented the most desirable Nuruk in order to make Takju, Yakju, and spirit.

Analysis on elements of policy changes in character industry (캐릭터산업의 정책변인연구)

  • Han, Chang-Wan
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
    • /
    • s.33
    • /
    • pp.597-616
    • /
    • 2013
  • Character industry is not only knowledge-based industry chiefly with copyrights but also motive power for creative economy to take a role functionally over the fields of industries because it has industrial characteristic as complement product to promote sale value in manufacturing industry and service industry and increase profit on sales. Since 2003, the national policy related to character has aimed to maximize effect among connected industries, extend its business abroad, enforce copyrights through the improvement of marketing system, develop industrial infrastructure through raising quality of character products. With the result of this policy, the successful cases of connected contents have been crystallized and domestic character industry has stepped up methodically since 2007. It is needed to reset the scales of character industry and industrial stats because there are more know-how of self industry promotion and more related characters through strategy of market departmentalization starting with cartoon, animation, games, novels, movies and musicals. Especially, The Korea government set our target for 'Global Top Five Character Power' since 2009 and has started to carry out to find global star characters, support to establish network among connected industries, diversify promotion channels, and develop licensing business. Particularly, since 2013, There have been prospered the indoor character theme park with time management just like character experimental marketing or Kids cafes using characters, the demand market of digital character focusing on SNS emoticon, and the performance market for character musical consistently. Moreover, The domestic and foreign illegal black markets on off-line have been enlarged, so we need another policy alternative. To prepare for the era of exploding character demand market and diversifying platform, it is needed to set up a solid strategy that is required the elements of policy changes in character industry to vitalize character industry and support new character design and connected contents. the following shows that the elements of policy changes related to the existing policy, the current position of market. Nowadays, the elements of policy changes in domestic character industry are that variety of consumers in the digital character market according to platform diversification, Convergence contents of character goods for the Korean waves, legalization of the illegal black contents market, and controling the tendency of consumers in departmentalized market. This can help find the policy issue entirely deferent with the existing character powers like US, Japan or Europe. In its final analysis, the alternatives are the promotion of models with contract copyrights of domestic and foreign connected contents, the diversification of profit models of platform economy, the additive development of target market related to enlarging the Korean waves, and the strategy of character market for the age-specific tendency according to developing character demand market.

Segmental Resection and Replantation for Primary Malignant or Aggressive Tumors of the Upper Limb (상지에 발생한 악성 및 침윤성 종양의 분절절제 및 재접합술)

  • Hahn, Soo-Bong;Lee, Woo-Suk;Shin, Kyoo-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korean bone and joint tumor society
    • /
    • v.6 no.1
    • /
    • pp.10-16
    • /
    • 2000
  • Object : The aim of the current study is to assess the results of segmental resection and replantation for primary malignant or aggressive tumors of the upper limb. Materials and Methods : From 1986 to 1994, ten patients who had primary malignant or aggressive tumors of the upper limb were managed with segmental resection and replantation method. The average duration of follow-up was 7 years and 7 months. Primary indication of this method is stage II B tumors which, because of their extend, could otherwise be adequately treated only by amputation. Three patients had chondrosarcoma, two had osteosarcoma, two had giant cell tumors with pathologic fracture, one had extensive chondroblastoma, one had Ewings sarcoma, and one had leiomyosarcoma. The location of the tumor was humerus in 6 patients, scapula in 3 patients, and soft tissue of forearm in 1 patient. Wide resection margins were achieved in 7 patients and marginal margin in three. Results : One patient died on 40 months after surgery due to systemic metastasis. Nine patients have remained disease free without local recurrence or metastasis. The average overall functional rating was 65% (43~90%) for ten patients on the last follow-up by the functional rating system of Enneking. The mean grasping power and pinching power of operative hand was 75%(28~95%) and 65%(43~90%) of the opposite hand, respectively. Complications associated with this surgical method included three wound dehiscences and one nerve injury that resolved with proper wound care and time. Conclusion : It was concluded that segmental resection and replantation might be used for partial limb salvage in selected cases for the treatment of primary malignant or aggressive tumors of the upper limb.

  • PDF

Predicting hospital bankruptcy in Korea (병원도산 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Moo-Sik;Seo, Young-Joon
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.31 no.3 s.62
    • /
    • pp.490-502
    • /
    • 1998
  • This study purports to find the predictor of hospital bankruptcy in Korea and to examine the predictive power of the discriminant function model of hospital bankruptcy. Data on 17 financial and 4 non-financial indicators of 31 bankrupt and 31 profitable hospitals of 1, 2, and 3 years before bankruptcy were obtained from the hospital performance databank of Korea Institute of Health Services Management. Significant variables were identified through mean comparison of each indicator between bankrupt and profitable hospitals, and the discriminant function model of hospital bankruptcy was developed. The major findings are as follows 1. As for profitability indicators, net worth to total assets, operating profit to total capital, operating profit ratio to gross revenues, normal profit to total assets, normal profit to gross revenues, net profit to total assets were significantly different in mean comparison test in 1, 2, and 3 years before hospital bankruptcy. With regard to liquidity indicators, current ratio and quick ratio were significant in 1 year before bankruptcy. For activity indicators, patients receivable turnover was significant in 2 and 3 years before bankruptcy and added value per adjusted inpatient days was significant in 3 years before bankruptcy. 2. The discriminant function in 1, 2, and 3 years before bankruptcy were; $Z=-0.0166{\times}quick$ ratio-$0.1356{\times}normal$ profit to total assets-$1.545{\times}total$ assets turnrounds in 1 year before bankruptcy, $Z=-0.0119{\times}quick$ ratio-$0.1433{\times}operating$ profit to total assets-$0.0227{\times}value$ added to total assets in 2 years before bankruptcy, and $Z=-0.3533{\times}net$ profit to total assets-$0.1336{\times}patients$ receivables turn-rounds-$0.04301{\times}added$ value per adjusted $patient+0.00119{\times}average$ daily inpatient census in 3 years before bankruptcy. 3. The discriminant function's discriminant power in 1, 2, and 3 years before bankruptcy was 77.42, 79.03, 82.25% respectively.

  • PDF

Processing of Cheonggukjang using soybean powder (콩 분말을 이용한 청국장 제조 기술 개발)

  • Jeong, Yeon-Shin;Dhakal, Krishna Hari;Hwang, Young-Hyun
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
    • /
    • v.29
    • /
    • pp.43-53
    • /
    • 2011
  • The possibility of making Cheongukjang by the use of soy-powder and pill type re-made from soy-powder was investigated. Some of experimental results obtained are summarized as follows; 1. Regardless of three different types for the source material of Cheonggukjang, soybean seed, soy-power, and pill, the dry weight of fermented Cheonggukjang showed continuously decreasing trends along with the time of fermentation applied. 2. In all type of source materials, the length of viscous substance during fermentation was increased along with the time of fermentation, and the rate of elongation was much reduced after 48hr of fermentation. Out of four soybean varieties tested, Taekwangkong produced longest viscous substance fermented in the type of soybean seed. No viscous substance was formed when the depth of soy-powder in the fermentation box was shallow, one centimeter. 3. Not much difference was observed in the number of microbes, Bacillus licheniformis B1, in all soybean varieties. The number was proportionally increased in the type of powder but it increased rapidly from 12 hour to 24 hour with low rate of increase thereafter in the pill type. 4. Along with the time of fermentation in all types, the color of Cheonggukjang changed from yellow to dull. At the same time, the tone of color and chroma changed into reddish and yellow, respectively. 5. Along with the time of fermentation in all types, pH of Cheonggukjang changed in alkali. 6. Along with the time of fermentation, the content of isoflavone in Cheonggukjang increased by 48hr but decreased thereafter. 7. In general, the quality of Cheonggukjang fermented in types of soy-powder and pill re-made from soy-powder was lower than that of soybean seed. More study is seemed to be needed to produce high quality Cheonggukjang by the use of soy-power.

  • PDF

A Study on the Characteristics of Condensable Fine Particles in Flue Gas (배출가스 중 응축성미세먼지 특성 연구)

  • Gong, Buju;Kim, Jonghyeon;Kim, Hyeri;Lee, Sangbo;Kim, Hyungchun;Jo, Jeonghwa;Kim, Jeonghun;Gang, Daeil;Park, Jeong Min;Hong, Jihyung
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
    • /
    • v.32 no.5
    • /
    • pp.501-512
    • /
    • 2016
  • The study evaluated methods to measure condensable fine particles in flue gases and measured particulate matter by fuel and material to get precise concentrations and quantities. As a result of the method evaluation, it is required to improve test methods for measuring Condensable Particulate Matter (CPM) emitted after the conventional Filterable Particulate Matter (FPM) measurement process. Relative Standard Deviation (RSD) based on the evaluated analysis process showed that RSD percentages of FPM and CPM were around 27.0~139.5%. As errors in the process of CPM measurement and analysis can be caused while separating and dehydrating organic and inorganic materials from condensed liquid samples, transporting samples, and titrating ammonium hydroxide in the sample, it is required to comply with the exact test procedures. As for characteristics of FPM and CPM concentrations, CPM had about 1.6~63 times higher concentrations than FPM, and CPM caused huge increase in PM mass concentrations. Also, emission concentrations and quantities varied according to the characteristics of each fuel, the size of emitting facilities, operational conditions of emitters, etc. PM in the flue gases mostly consisted of CPM (61~99%), and the result of organic/inorganic component analysis revealed that organic dusts accounted for 30~88%. High-efficiency prevention facilities also had high concentrations of CPM due to large amounts of $NO_x$, and the more fuels, the more inorganic dusts. As a result of comparison between emission coefficients by fuel and the EPA AP-42, FPM had lower result values compared to that in the US materials, and CPM had higher values than FPM. For the emission coefficients of the total PM (FPM+CPM) by industry, that of thermal power stations (bituminous coal) was 71.64 g/ton, and cement manufacturing facility (blended fuels) 18.90 g/ton. In order to estimate emission quantities and coefficients proper to the circumstances of air pollutant-emitting facilities in Korea, measurement data need to be calculated in stages by facility condition according to the CPM measurement method in the study. About 80% of PM in flue gases are CPM, and a half of which are organic dusts that are mostly unknown yet. For effective management and control of PM in flue gases, it is necessary to identify the current conditions through quantitative and qualitative analysis of harmful organic substances, and have more interest in and conduct studies on unknown materials' measurements and behaviors.