• 제목/요약/키워드: Cumulative risk assessment

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환경영향평가서 내 건강영향평가의 누적위해성평가 방법론적 개선 - 과거 10년 국내 산업단지 개발 사례를 중심으로 - (Methodological Improvement of the Cumulative Risk Assessment of Health Impact Assessment in Environmental Impact Assessment - Focused on the Industrial Complex Development Projects in the Last Decade -)

  • 김은채;하종식
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제30권6호
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    • pp.413-424
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    • 2021
  • 현행 환경영향평가 내 건강영향평가는 단일 물질별 기준초과 여부를 평가하고 적정 저감방안을 수립하도록 시행된다. 이에 따라 일부 개발 대상사업의 경우, 위해성평가의 모든 물질이 기준을 만족하지만 노출농도가 기준에 매우 근사한 경우가 존재한다. 하지만 여기서 모든 물질들의 동시 노출을 고려한다면 건강영향은 단일 물질별 관리보다 상당히 크게 발생할 여지가 있다. 실제로 수용체에 노출되는 건강영향을 파악하기 위해 배출물질의 통합평가 방법론의 구체화 및 개선방안 마련이 필요하다. 본 논문은 해외 선진사례 및 국내외 문헌고찰을 통해 누적위해성평가 및 위해성의 통합기법에 대한 개념을 정의하고, 산업단지 개발 시 다물질에 대한 건강영향을 고려한 누적위해성평가 활용을 위한 방법론을 제안하였다. 제안된 방법론을 통해 산업단지에 배출되는 유해중금속 4종(Ni, Cr6+, Cd, As)에 대한 통합지표를 산출하였으며, 과거 10년(2011~2020년) 간 수행된 산업단지 개발사업에 대한 사례적용을 통해 활용성을 확보하였다.

작업장에서의 n-부틸 글리시딜 에테르에 대한 건강 위험성 평가 (Human Health Risk Assessment of n-Butyl Glycidyl Ether from Occupational Workplaces)

  • 문형일;최현일;신새미;변상훈
    • 한국산업보건학회지
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.20-26
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: This study was conducted to evaluate the health risk of workers exposed to butyl glycidyl ether to prevent them from developing occupational diseases. Methods: The workplaces that coat floor with epoxy were selected and the samples were collected and analyzed with NIOSH 1616 Method. We calculate workplace reference concentration using with NOAEL estimated by the study of Anderson et al. in 1978. Risk was calculated by the ratio of exposure to workplace reference concentration. Monte-Carlo simulation was performed to derivate the median, cumulative 90%, and cumulative 95% value by using Crystal Ball. Results: Butyl glycidyl ether is a skin, eye irritator and can result in central nervous system depression, allergic reaction. NOAEL was 38 ppm and workplace reference concentration was calculated as 0.73 ppm corrected with uncertainty factors. Geometric mean was 1.152 ppm and geometric standard deviation was 1.522 by the workplace environment measurement. The median, cumulative 90%, and cumulative 95% value of risk were calculated as 1.617, 1.934, and 2.092, respectively. Conclusions: Not only cumulative 90% and cumulative 95% value but also the median of risk is higher than 1.0 by the risk characterization, so it can do a lot of harm to workers. Therefore, the process of derivating workplace reference concentration and the appropriacy of the uncertainty factors should be re-examined.

포괄적 누적 충격 공통원인고장 모형 및 시스템 신뢰도 평가 (Comprehensive Cumulative Shock Common Cause Failure Models and Assessment of System Reliability)

  • 임태진
    • 품질경영학회지
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    • 제39권2호
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    • pp.320-328
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    • 2011
  • This research proposes comprehensive models for analyzing common cause failures (CCF) due to cumulative shocks and to assess system reliability under the CCF. The proposed cumulative shock models are based on the binomial failure rate (BFR) model. Six kinds of models are proposed so as to explain diverse cumulative shock phenomena. The models are composed of the initial failure probability, shape parameter, and the total shock number. Some parameters of the proposed models can not be explicitly estimated, so we adopt the Expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm in order to obtain the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the parameters. By estimating the parameters for the cumulative shock models, the system reliability with CCF can be assessed sequentially according to the number of cumulative shocks. The result can be utilizes in dynamic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), aging studies, or risk management for nuclear power plants. Replacement or maintenance policies can also be developed based on the proposed model.

환경보건 스크리닝 툴을 이용한 서울시 누적영향 평가 (Cumulative Impact Assessment Using Environmental Health Screening Tool in Seoul)

  • 임유라;배현주
    • 한국지역지리학회지
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.444-453
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    • 2014
  • 환경위험의 피해가 환경불평등과 사회불평등의 상호작용으로 인해 환경약자가 더 많이 피해를 받게 되는 환경 피해 불평등이 심화될 것으로 전망되고 있다. 본 연구는 서울시를 대상으로 미국 캘리포니아 환경보호청에서 개발한 환경보건 스크리닝 툴을 적용하여 통합적인 지역 규모의 누적영향을 평가하였다. 환경보건 취약지역을 스크리닝하기 위하여 환경노출과 건강영향의 환경부담, 민감집단과 사회경제적 요인의 인구특성에 따라 10개 지표를 선정하였다. 환경보건 스크리닝 툴을 통하여 2009~2011년 서울시 누적영향평가를 실시한 결과, 서울의 강서와 강남지역에서 위험요인이 높게 나타났며 강서지역은 환경부담과 인구특성 모두에서 위험요인이 높았고, 강남지역은 환경부담요인이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 연구결과는 민감 취약계층 등 환경약자를 고려한, 공정하고 효율적인 환경정책을 추진하기 위한 과학적인 근거를 제공할 수 있다.

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식품을 통한 유기인계농약류의 동시노출위해성평가 (Cumulative Risk Assessment of Organophosphorus Pesticides in the Diet)

  • 이효민;한지연;윤은경;김효미;황인균;최동미;이강봉;원경풍;송인상
    • 한국식품위생안전성학회지
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.21-26
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    • 2001
  • 유기인계 농약은 주로 수확률을 증가시킬 목적으로 과일, 채소, 곡류를 포함한 농산물에 사용하는 살충제로, 최근의 위해성평가기술은 독성기전이 동일한 물직들에 대해서 기준이 되는 물질의 특성을 1로하여 상대독성계수를 고려하므로 동시노출평가(cumulative risk assessment)를 수행하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 식품섭취를 통한 유기인계 농약의 동시다중노출에 기인된 위해정도를 판단하기 위하여 유기인계 농약과 다소비노출가능식품 등을 대상으로 cumulative risk assessment 를 실시코자 하였다. 펑가에 고려된 농약은 우리나라에서 사용빈도가 높은 농약(Acephate, Azinphos-methyl, Chlorpyrifos, Diazinon, Dimethoate, Ethion, Malathion, Methamidophos, Methidathion, Parathion-methyl, Phosmet, Pirimiphos-methyl) 12종이었고, 평가대상식품은 국내에서 유통되는 다소비식품을 위주로 곡류 4종(쌀, 보리, 밀, 옥수수), 과일류 5종(사과, 감, 밀감, 바나나, 배), 및 채소류 13종(배추, 양배추, 상추, 시금치, 오이, 토마토, 호박, 양파, 고추, 마늘, 무, 파, 당근)을 포함하여 총 22종의 식품을 대상으로 하였으며, 시료의 대표성을 부여하기 위하여 샘플링은 전국 4개 대도시(서울, 부산, 광주, 대전)를 대상으로 총2회 실시하였다. 12종의 유기인계 농약의 동시다중 노출에 대한 위해성평가를 위하여 노출평가시 TEF(독성등가치, Toxic Equivalency Factor) 방법을 적용하였고, FAO/WHO 의 만성인체노출평가방법을 기초로 우리나라 일반 성인을 대상으로 다수의 식품섭취를 통한 다수의 농약에 대한, 동시인체노출평가를 실시하였다. 노출의 안전수준을 결정하기 위해 필요한 독성값은 chlorpyrifos를 기준으로 하여 U.S.EPA 에서 제시한 AChE저해작용을 endpoint로 하는 RfD 값을 활용하였으며, 다수의 유기인계 농약으로부터 동시노출 되었을 때 나타날 수 있는 비발암독성에 대한 위해도를 결정하기 위하여 위험지수(Hazard Index, HI) 방법을 사용하였다.

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신환경영향평가기술(新環境影響評價技術)의 개발방향(開發方向) (New Environmental Impact Assessment Technology)

  • 한상욱;이종호;남영숙
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제9권4호
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    • pp.277-290
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the problems of environmental impact assessment(EIA) and to suggest new EIA technology. The problems of EIA in Korea can be summarized as follows. First, the EIA does not reflect the impact of policy, plan and program on environment. Second, the project EIA does not consider the cumulative impacts such as additive impacts, synergistic impacts, threshold/saturation impacts, induced and indirect impacts, time-crowded impacts, and space-crowded impacts. Third, the EIA techniques in Korea are not standardized. Finally, the present EIA suggests only alternatives to reduce adverse impacts. To solve above-mentioned problems, the development of new EIA technology is essential. First, the new EIA technology should be developed toward pollution prevention technology and comprehensive and integrated environmental management technology. Second, new fields of EIA for pollution prevention contain strategic environmental assessment, cumulative impacts assessment, socio-economic impact assessment, cyber EIA and EIA technology necessary after the reunification of Korean Peninsula. Third, EIA technology for integrated environmental management contains the development of integated environment assessment system and the development of packaged EIA technology. The EIA technology for integrated environmental assessment system contains (1) development of integrated impact assessment technology combining air/water quality model, GIS and remote sensing, (2) integrated impact assessment of EIA, traffic impact assessment, population impact assessment and disaster impact assessment. (3) development of integrated technology combining risk assessment and EIA (4) development of integrated technology of life cycle assessment and EIA, (5) development of integrated technology of spatial planning and EIA, (6) EIA technology for biodiversity towards sustainable development, (7) mathematical model and GIS based location decision techniques, and (8) environmental monitoring and audit. Furthermore, there are some fields which need packaged EIA technology. In case of dam development, urban or industrial complex development, tourist development, landfill or combustion facilities construction, electric power plant development, development of port, road/rail/air port, is necessary the standardized and packaged EIA technology which considers the common characteristics of the same kind of development project.

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Alleviation of PM2.5-associated Risk of Daily Influenza Hospitalization by COVID-19 Lockdown Measures: A Time-series Study in Northeastern Thailand

  • Benjawan Roudreo;Sitthichok Puangthongthub
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제57권2호
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    • pp.108-119
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    • 2024
  • Objectives: Abrupt changes in air pollution levels associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak present a unique opportunity to evaluate the effects of air pollution on influenza risk, at a time when emission sources were less active and personal hygiene practices were more rigorous. Methods: This time-series study examined the relationship between influenza cases (n=22 874) and air pollutant concentrations from 2018 to 2021, comparing the timeframes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in and around Thailand's Khon Kaen province. Poisson generalized additive modeling was employed to estimate the relative risk of hospitalization for influenza associated with air pollutant levels. Results: Before the COVID-19 outbreak, both the average daily number of influenza hospitalizations and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 ㎛ or less (PM2.5) concentration exceeded those later observed during the pandemic (p<0.001). In single-pollutant models, a 10 ㎍/m3 increase in PM2.5 before COVID-19 was significantly associated with increased influenza risk upon exposure to cumulative-day lags, specifically lags 0-5 and 0-6 (p<0.01). After adjustment for co-pollutants, PM2.5 demonstrated the strongest effects at lags 0 and 4, with elevated risk found across all cumulative-day lags (0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 0-5, and 0-6) and significantly greater risk in the winter and summer at lag 0-5 (p<0.01). However, the PM2.5 level was not significantly associated with influenza risk during the COVID-19 outbreak. Conclusions: Lockdown measures implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic could mitigate the risk of PM2.5-induced influenza. Effective regulatory actions in the context of COVID-19 may decrease PM2.5 emissions and improve hygiene practices, thereby reducing influenza hospitalizations.

범용 위험도 평가서를 이용한 조선업체 작업에서의 누적외상성질환에 대한 인간공학적 분석 (An Application of a Baseline Checklist for Risk Assessment of Cumulative Trauma Disorders in Shipyard Workers)

  • 박동현;한상환
    • 한국산업보건학회지
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.24-35
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    • 1998
  • Cumulative trauma disorders(CTDs) have been a growing problems for US and European industries with higher incidence rate every year. The increase and their associated costs has led companies to form committes and implement programs to address this problem. In our country, we have just started to recognize and to work on the problems in industry. This study conducted an ergonomic analysis for typical jobs of ship building industry which was not usually surveyed for CTD problem. A baseline CTD checklist which was supposed to do a risk assessment was developed and applied in this study. Initially, we considered five major parts in the checklist which consisted of personal, frequency, posture, force, and miscellaneous information. Most jobs in ship building industry were much different from typical assembly work and VDT work that have been major part of the previous CTD studies. Specifically, job characteristics in terms of frequency and posture were quite different. There were relatively long cycle time, awkward postures for whole body (not just for upper extremities). Also, CTD risk scores based on checklist were a lot higher than the scores for VDT jobs which was a case of preceding application of the checklist. Specifically, grinding jobs turned out to be the most risky one in terms of CTDs. In conclusion, usual CTD prevention guidelines are not likely to he effective in this type of industry. An individual job based interventions are strongly suggested to have a good control of CTD problems in ship building industry.

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춘천시의 지하 저장 탱크의 예비적 위해성 평가를 위한 설치 현황 분석 및 지리정보시스템의 적용 (Analysis of Installation Status and Application of GIS for Preliminary Risk Assessment of Underground Storage Tanks in Chuncheon City)

  • 김준현;한영한;이종춘;권영성;이광연
    • 산업기술연구
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    • 제22권A호
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2002
  • In this study, the preliminary risk assessment for the underground storage tanks(UST) in Chunchon city was implemented using the geographical information system(GIS). The estimation variables, such as the installation year, storage capacity, the distances from streams, and from groundwater pumping wells, were selected to estimate the relative risk levels. The weighting factors were given to all the estimation variables. Cumulative scores were induced by the combination of all the scores of the corresponding variables using the buffering technique and the overlay analysis in ArcView. Using the these process, the relative risk level of each UST was estimated. Some sites in this study are simplified and reduced because the number of useable data are limited or too enormous. Thus the selection of the comprehensive estimation variables and the proper weighting values are required for the future study. The methodology in this study could be served not only for the preliminary risk assessment of UST but also for the selection of the proper location of new and old UST. And, it can be used for the effective management system of UST.

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Risk assessment of heavy metals in soil based on the geographic information system-Kriging technique in Anka, Nigeria

  • Johnbull, Onisoya;Abbassi, Bassim;Zytner, Richard G.
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.150-158
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    • 2019
  • Soil contaminated with heavy metals from artisanal gold mining in Anka Local Government Area in Northwestern Nigeria was investigated to evaluate the human health risk as a result of heavy metals. Measured concentration of heavy metals and exposure parameters were used to estimate human carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk. GIS-based Kriging method was utilized to create a prediction maps of human health risks and probability maps of heavy metals concentrations exceeding their threshold limits. Hazard index calculation showed that 21 out of 23 locations are posing non-cancer risk for children. Adults and children are at high cancer risk in all locations as the total cancer risk exceeded $1{\times}10^{-6}$ (the lower limit CTR value). Kriging model showed that only a very small area in Anka has a hazard index of less than unity and cumulative target risk of less than $1{\times}10^{-4}$, indicating a significant carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for children. The probability of heavy metals to exceed their threshold concentrations around the study area was also found to be high.