• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cumulative Risk

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Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Thunderstorm Wind Gust (뇌우 동반 돌풍의 시공간분포 분석)

  • Lee, Sung Su;Kim, Jun Yeong
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2013
  • This study presents the analysis of temporal and spatial distribution of occurrences of wind gust over Korea from 2002 to 2009. The events during typhoons are excluded and the topographical effects on the wind speed are also corrected using KBC (2005). As the results, the frequency of the occurrences is as high as 286 and the higher occurrences appear mainly along the coastal area. This study also shows that the uncertainty of the appearance of wind gust during thunderstorm is much higher than in synoptic wind by comparing wind speed records for both events. This study also found that the spatial distribution of cumulative cloud quotient is closely correlated to that of occurrences of thunderstorm wind gust, which suggests the possible utilization of the cloud quotient as weighting factors in assessing wind gust risk.

Factors Influencing Roadkill Hotspot in the Republic of Korea

  • Kim, Kyungmin;Yi, Yoonjung;Woo, Donggul;Park, Taejin;Song, Euigeun
    • Proceedings of the National Institute of Ecology of the Republic of Korea
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.274-278
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    • 2021
  • Road structures play an important role in collisions involving vehicles and wildlife. Our study aimed to determine the effect of various types of road structures on the risk associated with roadkill. We surveyed 50 previously identified roadkill hotspots, ranked from one to five according to roadkill density. We collected nine types of road structure data on each hotspot road section. Structures with similar characteristics were grouped together, resulting in five categories, namely, median barrier, high edge barrier, low edge barrier, speed, and visibility. We examined the existence of each road structure category at each hotspot rank. The cumulative link model showed that the absence of bottom blocked median barrier increased the roadkill hotspot rank. Our study concluded that a visual obstacle in the middle of roads by the median barrier decreases wildlife road crossing attempts and roadkill risk. We suggest that future roadkill mitigation plans should be established considering these characteristics.

Nested Case-control Study of Occupational Radiation Exposure and Breast and Esophagus Cancer Risk among Medical Diagnostic X Ray Workers in Jiangsu of China

  • Wang, Fu-Ru;Fang, Qiao-Qiao;Tang, Wei-Ming;Xu, Xiao-San;Mahapatra, Tanmay;Mahapatra, Sanchita;Liu, Yu-Fei;Yu, Ning-Le;Sun, Quan-Fu
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.4699-4704
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    • 2015
  • Medical diagnostic X-ray workers are one occupational group that expose to the long-term low-dose external radiation over their working lifetime, and they may under risk of different cancers. This study aims to determine the relationship between the occupational X-ray radiation exposure and cancer risk among these workers in Jiangsu, China. We conducted Nested case-control study to investigate the occupational X-ray radiation exposure and cancer risk. Data were collected through self-administered questionnaire, which includes but not limits to demographic data, personal behaviors and family history of cancer. Retrospective dose reconstruction was conducted to estimate the cumulative doses of the x-ray workers. Inferential statistics, t-test and 2 tests were used to compare the differences between each group. We used the logistic regression model to calculate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of cancer by adjusting the age, gender. All 34 breast cancer cases and 45 esophageal cancer cases that detected in a cohort conducted among health workers between 1950~2011 were included in this presented study, and 158 cancer-free controls were selected by frequency-matched (1:2). Our study found that the occupational radiation exposure was associated with a significantly increased cancer risk compared with the control, especially in breast cancer and esophageal cancer (adjusted OR=2.90, 95% CI: 1.19-7.04 for breast cancer; OR=4.19, 95% CI: 1.87-9.38 for esophageal cancer, and OR=3.43, 95% CI: 1.92-6.12 for total cancer, respectively). The occupational X-ray radiation exposure was associated with increasing cancer risk, which indicates that proper intervention and prevention strategies may be needed in order to bring down the occupational cancer risk.

Cost-Benefit Analysis Method for Ageing Equipment of Chemical Plants Using Risk Assessment (위험성평가를 이용한 노후설비에 대한 비용 편익분석 방법)

  • Jung, Soomin;Jung, Changmo;Kang, Seok-Min;Chae, Seungbeen;Kang, Seung-Gyun;Ko, Jae Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.84-92
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    • 2020
  • Most facilities in chemical plants operate in environments that are outside the range of temperature and pressure that can be encountered on a daily basis, and are vulnerable to aging due to these stresses and environmental conditions. The facilities exposed to these conditions are not only likely to fail due to cumulative damage, but also lead to accidents if maintenance and replacement are not performed.Recommendation guidelines called risk-based inspection are widely used around the world-wide. However, limits exist for facilities that have already elapsed for a certain. As a result of the survey on the aging of Ulsan industrial complex in Korea, which carries out proper inspection, many of the facilities have been used for 20 years. Also, most of the facilities where the accident occurred have been in operation for more than 20 years. Therefore, this study suggested criteria for classifying devices that have exceeded a certain period of use as obsolete facilities. In addition, quantitative risk assessment was conducted. The safety investment method using the cost-benefit analysis method was proposed in order to calculate the loss cost and reduce the risk by expressing the risks of the corresponding aged facility as an Economic index. By utilizing the method of cost-benefit analysis of old facilities using the quantitative risk assessment presented in this study, it can be expected to improve the performance and life of old facilities, improve production efficiency and reliability of the system of facilities, change the recognition of safety management costs, increase employee stability, and reduce loss costs.

Sensitivity Analysis of Meteorology-based Wildfire Risk Indices and Satellite-based Surface Dryness Indices against Wildfire Cases in South Korea (기상기반 산불위험지수와 위성기반 지면건조지수의 우리나라 산불발생에 대한 민감도분석)

  • Kong, Inhak;Kim, Kwangjin;Lee, Yangwon
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2017
  • There are many wildfire risk indices worldwide, but objective comparisons between such various wildfire risk indices and surface dryness indices have not been conducted for the wildfire cases in Korea. This paper describes a sensitivity analysis on the wildfire risk indices and surface dryness indices for Korea using LDAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System) meteorological dataset on a 1.5-km grid and MODIS(Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite images on a 1-km grid. We analyzed the meteorology-based wildfire risk indices such as the Australian FFDI(forest fire danger index), the Canadian FFMC(fine fuel moisture code), the American HI(Haines index), and the academically presented MNI(modified Nesterov index). Also we examined the satellite-based surface dryness indices such as NDDI(normalized difference drought index) and TVDI(temperature vegetation dryness index). As a result of the comparisons between the six indices regarding 120 wildfire cases with the area damaged over 1ha during the period between January 2013 and May 2017, we found that the FFDI and FFMC showed a good predictability for most wildfire cases but the MNI and TVDI were not suitable for Korea. The NDDI can be used as a proxy parameter for wildfire risk because its average CDF(cumulative distribution function) scores were stably high irrespective of fire size. The indices tested in this paper should be carefully chosen and used in an integrated way so that they can contribute to wildfire forecasting in Korea.

Origins of Addiction Predictably Embedded in Childhood Trauma: A Neurobiological Review

  • Wiet, Susie
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.4-13
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    • 2017
  • The seeds of addiction are typically sown years prior to the onset of addictive substance use or engagement in addictive behaviors, due to the priming of the reward pathway (RewP) by alterations in the mechanism of stress-signaling from the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPA) and related pathways. Excessive stress from a single-event and/or cumulative life experiences during childhood, such as those documented in the Adverse Childhood Experiences Study, is translated into neurobiological toxicity that alters the set-point of the HPA axis and limbic system homeostasis [suggested new term: regulation pathway (RegP)]. The resultant alteration of the RegP not only increases the risk for psychiatric and physical illness, but also that for early onset and chronic addictions by dysregulating the RewP. This paper reviews the interface of these symbiotic pathways that result in the phenotypic pathology of emotional dysregulation, cognitive impairment, and compulsive behaviors, as well as morbidity and shorter life expectancy when dysregulated by chronic stress.

Performance of Pairs Trading Algorithm with the Implementation of Structural Changes Detection Procedure (구조적 변화 감지 과정이 포함된 페어트레이딩 알고리즘의 성과분석)

  • Jung, In Kon;Park, Dae Keun;Jun, Duk Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2017
  • This paper aims to implement "structural changes detection procedure" in pairs trading algorithm and to show that the proposed approach outperforms the extant pair trading algorithm. Structural changes in pairs trading are defined in terms of changes in cointegrating factors and broken cointegration relationship. These changes are designed to test extant structural changes and unit root test methodologies. The simulation finds that expanding the changes in structure, increasing the mean reverting process of spread, and extending the consecutive days of broken cointegration will increase the performances of the proposed algorithm. Empirical study results are also consistent those of the simulation studies. The proposed algorithm outperforms the extant algorithm relative to risk and return given that the cumulative profit/loss has a significant upward-slope with minimal variance.

Recurrent Subarachnoid Hemorrhage after Complete Obliteration of Intracranial Aneurysm

  • Yang, Tae-Ki;Kim, Chul-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.492-494
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    • 2009
  • The authors report a case of recurrent subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) after complete occlusion of an intracranial aneurysm. It is known that regrowth of an aneurysm after the complete clipping is a rare event. For detection of recurrence, however, it may be necessary to follow up with the patient regularly after the initial operation for intracranial aneurysms, because re-rupture of an aneurysm can cause a fatal result, and the cumulative risk of a recurrent SAH is thought to be not low over time.

An Analysis of Physical Load of the Shipping Work in Cold Storage Warehouses (냉동창고 출하작업의 신체부담 분석에 관한 연구)

  • 장성록
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.192-198
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    • 1999
  • Work-related musculoskeletal disorders constitute a major source of employee disability and lost wages. Cumulative Trauma Disorders(CTD) refers to a category of physical conditions which result from chronic musculoskeletal injury. Assessment of CTD risk in industry at early stage allows for early control, a safe environment, and a healthier workforce. In this study, the physical load of the shipping work in the cold storage warehouse were especially investigated. Employees were working with almost unnatural posture in a very restricted work space. The questionnaire and biomechanical analysis were used to evaluate the physical load. Results from analyses showed that they were sufficiently exposed to CTD due to repetition and unnatural posture. Based on the analysis, ways for improving working conditions are proposed. The analysis and proposals in this paper will serve as a basic tool for designing/redesigning working environment such as improvement of tools and equipments, design of times for work/rest cycle.

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Manganese and Iron Interaction: a Mechanism of Manganese-Induced Parkinsonism

  • Zheng, Wei
    • Environmental Mutagens and Carcinogens
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.115-130
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    • 2003
  • Idiopathic Parkinson's disease (IPD) represents a common neurodegenerative disorder. While epidemiological studies have suggested a number of risk factors including age, gender, race, and inherited disorder, the cumulative evidence supports the view that environmental or occupational exposure to certain chemicals may contribute to the initiation and progress of Parkinsonism. More recently, clinical and laboratory investigations have led to the theory that dysregulation of iron, an essential metal to body function, may underlie IPD by initiating free radical reaction, diminishing the mitochondrial energy production, and provoking the oxidative cytotoxicity. The participation of iron in neuronal cell death is especially intriguing in that iron acquisition and regulation in brain are highly conservative and thus vulnerable to interference from other metals that bear the similar chemical reactivity. Manganese neurotoxicity, induced possibly by altering iron homeostasis, is such an example. In fact, the current interest in manganese neurotoxicology stems from two primary concerns: its clinical symptoms that resemble Parkinson's disease and its increased use as an antiknock agent to replace lead in gasoline. This article will commence with addressing the current understanding of iron-associated neurodegenerative damage. The major focus will then be devoted to the mechanism whereby manganese alters iron homeostasis in brain.

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