• Journal of the Korean Society of Child Welfare
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• no.26
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• pp.61-86
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• 2008

This Study examines the relationship between Cumulative Risk and Behavioral Problem of children's in divorced family. The cumulative risk was Summed for each children to creative an cumulative scores. Scores on the index ranged from 0 to 12. Cumulative Risk was associated with Behavioral Problem. Moreover the analyses revealed positive, linear associated between Cumulative Risk and Behavioral Problem. Cumulative Risk predicted Problem Behavioral of Divorced Family's Children. Finding indicate that the amount of risk in Divorced Family's childrens lives was useful for determining the extent to which cumulative risk exposure plays an etiological role in Behavioral Problem. On the basis of these results, this article provided some suggestions for promoting of children welfare.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.320-328
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• 2011

This research proposes comprehensive models for analyzing common cause failures (CCF) due to cumulative shocks and to assess system reliability under the CCF. The proposed cumulative shock models are based on the binomial failure rate (BFR) model. Six kinds of models are proposed so as to explain diverse cumulative shock phenomena. The models are composed of the initial failure probability, shape parameter, and the total shock number. Some parameters of the proposed models can not be explicitly estimated, so we adopt the Expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm in order to obtain the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the parameters. By estimating the parameters for the cumulative shock models, the system reliability with CCF can be assessed sequentially according to the number of cumulative shocks. The result can be utilizes in dynamic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), aging studies, or risk management for nuclear power plants. Replacement or maintenance policies can also be developed based on the proposed model.

• Journal of Korean society of Dental Hygiene
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.45-52
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• 2016

Objectives: The purpose of the study was to investigate the cumulative dental caries rate of pit and fissure sealant in community public health program from 2005 to 2008 follow-up. Methods: The subjects were 4,768 students of 34 elementary schools in Gimcheon. The survey included direct oral examination and cumulative retention rate of pit and fissure sealant from 2005 to 2008. Data were analyzed using PASW statistical package version 18.0 and the level of significance was set at p<0.05. Results: The cumulative retention rate of sealant was 18%, 25%, and 33% after 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years, respectively. In addition, the cumulative retention rate of lower teeth was higher than that of upper teeth. Cumulative dental caries rate increased in sealed group and no sealed group. The cumulative dental caries rate decreased owing to tooth brushing frequency in sealed group and no sealed group. Conclusions: Regular and timely tooth brushing can maintain good oral health condition after tooth sealing. The school based oral health education can prevent loss of sealant and secondary caries.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.56-63
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• 2016

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to point out that the Kaplan-Meier method is not valid to calculate the survival probability or failure probability (risk) in the presence of competing risks and to introduce more valid method of cumulative incidence function. Methods: Survival analysis methods have been widely used in biostatistics division. However the same methods have not been utilized in reliability division. Especially competing risks cases, where several causes of failure occur and the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of the other events, are scattered in reliability field. But they are not noticed in the realm of reliability expertism or they are analysed in the wrong way. Specifically Kaplan-Meier method which assumes that the censoring times and failure times are independent is used to calculate the probability of failure in the presence of competing risks, thereby overestimating the real probability of failure. Hence, cumulative incidence function is introduced and sample competing risks data are analysed using cumulative incidence function and some graphs. Finally comparison of cumulative incidence functions and regression type analysis are mentioned briefly. Results: Cumulative incidence function is used to calculate the survival probability or failure probability (risk) in the presence of competing risks and some useful graphs depicting the failure trend over the lifetime are introduced. Conclusion: This paper shows that Kaplan-Meier method is not appropriate for the evaluation of survival or failure over the course of lifetime. In stead, cumulative incidence function is shown to be useful. Some graphs using the cumulative incidence functions are also shown to be informative.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.105 no.2
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• pp.216-222
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• 2016

In relation to the impact of cumulative rainfall on landslides in accordance with the cumulative number of days, for the more than 100 mm rainfall, the 3 days cumulative rainfall experienced 64.9% of the total points, which is 986 points out of the 1520 points. The 5 days cumulative rainfall period experienced 60% of the total landslides, which is 846 points out of 1520 points analyzed. The 3 days or 5 days cumulative rainfall thus had a greater effect on landslides than the other days. In addition, for the 101-200 mm rainfall, more landslides occurred in the 10 days cumulative number of days, for the 201-300 mm, more landslides occurred in the 14 days cumulative number of days, whereas the 18 days cumulative number of days had more landslides for the 301-400 mm rainfall. Thus, it is imperative to take into consideration cumulative rainfall and the cumulative number of days of rainfall in the establishment of forecasting and warning systems for landslides, to minimize the damage caused to life and property by landslides.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.299-309
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• 2008

Cumulative effects can be defined as impacts on environment which results from incremental impacts of a proposed project, which covers other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions. The necessity of Cumulative Effect Assessment is that, when there are several projects near the project area, environmental effects of individual project can be larger or smaller than those of individual project without having projects nearby because of synergy, ascending and descending effects. This study was intended to help Environmental Impact Assessment practitioners identify spatial and temporal boundaries during the scoping stage. To do this, literature review of domestic and foreign legislations, guidelines, textbooks and papers related to Environmental Impact Assessment and Cumulative Effect Assessment was accomplished. This study suggests that continuous research be needed in order to identify spatial boundaries for other assessment fields and to develop methodologies for cumulative effect assessment.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.6 no.5 s.27
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• pp.69-77
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• 2005

Change is inevitable and is a reality of construction projects. Most construction contracts include change clauses and allowing contractors an equitable adjustment to the contract price and duration caused by change. However, the actions of a contractor can cause a loss of productivity and furthermore can result in disruption of the whole project because of a cumulative or ripple effect. Because of its complicated nature, it becomes a complex issue to determine the cumulative impact (ripple effect) caused by single or multiple change orders. Furthermore, owners and contractors do not always agree on the adjusted contract price for the cumulative Impact of the changes. A number of studies have attempted to quantify the impact of change orders on project costs and schedule. Many of these attempted to develop regression models to quantify the loss. However, regression analysis has shortcomings in dealing with many qualitative or noisy input data. This study develops ANN models to classify and quantify the labor productivity losses that are caused by the cumulative impact of change orders. The results skew that ANN models give significantly improved performance compared to traditional statistical models.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.317-327
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• 2019

High-speed railway bridge piers in seismically active area may be subjected to multiple earthquakes and then produce cumulative residual deformation. To study the cumulative residual deformation of high-speed railway bridge piers under multiple earthquakes, a nonlinear numerical analytical model with multi-DOF (MDOF) system is presented and validated against two shaking table tests in this paper. Based on the presented model, a simple supported beam bridge pier model of high-speed railway is established and used to investigate the cumulative residual deformation of high-speed railway bridge pier under mainshock-aftershock sequences and swarm type seismic sequences. The results show that the cumulative residual deformation of the bridge pier increases with earthquake number, and the increasing rates are different under different earthquake number. The residual deformation of bridge pier subjected to multiple earthquakes is accumulated and may exceed the limit of code.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.62 no.2
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• pp.225-236
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• 2017

The purpose of this work is to predict ductile fracture of structural steel under extremely low cyclic loading experienced in earthquake. A cumulative damage model is proposed on the basis of an existing damage model originally aiming to predict fracture under monotonic loading. The cumulative damage model assumes that damage does not grow when stress triaxiality is below a threshold and fracture occurs when accumulated damage reach unit. The model was implemented in ABAQUS software. The cumulative damage model parameters for steel base metal, weld metal and heat affected zone were calibrated, respectively, through testing and finite element analyses of notched coupon specimens. The damage evolution law in the notched coupon specimens under different loads was compared. Finally, in order to examine the engineering applicability of the proposed model, the fracture performance of beam-column welded joints reported by previous researches was analyzed based on the cumulative damage model. The analysis results show that the cumulative damage model is able to successfully predict the cracking location, fracture process, the crack initiation life, and the total fatigue life of the joints.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.130-142
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• 2018

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to introduce regression method in the presence of competing risks and to show how you can use the method with hypothetical data. Methods: Survival analysis has been widely used in biostatistics division. But the same method has not been utilized in reliability division. Especially competing risks, where more than a couple of causes of failure occur and the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of the other events, are scattered in reliability field. But they are not utilized in the area of reliability or they are analysed in the wrong way. Specifically Kaplan-Meier method is used to calculate the probability of failure in the presence of competing risks, thereby overestimating the real probability of failure. Hence, cumulative incidence function is introduced. In addition, sample competing risks data are analysed using cumulative incidence function along with some graphs. Lastly we compare cumulative incidence functions with regression type analysis briefly. Results: We used cumulative incidence function to calculate the survival probability or failure probability in the presence of competing risks. We also drew some useful graphs depicting the failure trend over the lifetime. Conclusion: This research shows that Kaplan-Meier method is not appropriate for the evaluation of survival or failure over the course of lifetime in the presence of competing risks. Cumulative incidence function is shown to be useful in stead. Some graphs using the cumulative incidence functions are also shown to be informative.