• 한국아동복지학
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• 제26호
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• pp.61-86
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• 2008

본연구의 목적은 이혼가정자녀들의 문제행동을 예측하는데 있어서 누적적 위험모델의 효과성과 누적적 위험요인의 수와 그 누적적 영향력이 이혼가정자녀의 문제행동에 영향을 미치는지를 검증하는데 있다. 누적적위험 요인은 생태체계적인 측면에서 12개로 구성하였으며 위험요인의 원점수를 2진수로 변환하여 0-12점의 점수로 측정하였다. 연구결과, 이혼가정자녀들이 부모이혼후 경험한 위험요인의 수가 많은 아동일수록 문제행동의 가능성은 증가하는 것으로 나타나 위험요인의 누적적 효과가 있음이 검증되었다. 또한 이혼가정자녀의 문제행동에 누적적위험요인의 영향력과 다중위험 요인의 영향력이 일관성있게 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 근거로 이혼가정자녀들의 행동문제를 위한 예방과 전략이 모색되었다.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.320-328
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• 2011

This research proposes comprehensive models for analyzing common cause failures (CCF) due to cumulative shocks and to assess system reliability under the CCF. The proposed cumulative shock models are based on the binomial failure rate (BFR) model. Six kinds of models are proposed so as to explain diverse cumulative shock phenomena. The models are composed of the initial failure probability, shape parameter, and the total shock number. Some parameters of the proposed models can not be explicitly estimated, so we adopt the Expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm in order to obtain the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the parameters. By estimating the parameters for the cumulative shock models, the system reliability with CCF can be assessed sequentially according to the number of cumulative shocks. The result can be utilizes in dynamic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), aging studies, or risk management for nuclear power plants. Replacement or maintenance policies can also be developed based on the proposed model.

• 한국치위생학회지
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.45-52
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• 2016

Objectives: The purpose of the study was to investigate the cumulative dental caries rate of pit and fissure sealant in community public health program from 2005 to 2008 follow-up. Methods: The subjects were 4,768 students of 34 elementary schools in Gimcheon. The survey included direct oral examination and cumulative retention rate of pit and fissure sealant from 2005 to 2008. Data were analyzed using PASW statistical package version 18.0 and the level of significance was set at p<0.05. Results: The cumulative retention rate of sealant was 18%, 25%, and 33% after 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years, respectively. In addition, the cumulative retention rate of lower teeth was higher than that of upper teeth. Cumulative dental caries rate increased in sealed group and no sealed group. The cumulative dental caries rate decreased owing to tooth brushing frequency in sealed group and no sealed group. Conclusions: Regular and timely tooth brushing can maintain good oral health condition after tooth sealing. The school based oral health education can prevent loss of sealant and secondary caries.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.56-63
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• 2016

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to point out that the Kaplan-Meier method is not valid to calculate the survival probability or failure probability (risk) in the presence of competing risks and to introduce more valid method of cumulative incidence function. Methods: Survival analysis methods have been widely used in biostatistics division. However the same methods have not been utilized in reliability division. Especially competing risks cases, where several causes of failure occur and the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of the other events, are scattered in reliability field. But they are not noticed in the realm of reliability expertism or they are analysed in the wrong way. Specifically Kaplan-Meier method which assumes that the censoring times and failure times are independent is used to calculate the probability of failure in the presence of competing risks, thereby overestimating the real probability of failure. Hence, cumulative incidence function is introduced and sample competing risks data are analysed using cumulative incidence function and some graphs. Finally comparison of cumulative incidence functions and regression type analysis are mentioned briefly. Results: Cumulative incidence function is used to calculate the survival probability or failure probability (risk) in the presence of competing risks and some useful graphs depicting the failure trend over the lifetime are introduced. Conclusion: This paper shows that Kaplan-Meier method is not appropriate for the evaluation of survival or failure over the course of lifetime. In stead, cumulative incidence function is shown to be useful. Some graphs using the cumulative incidence functions are also shown to be informative.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제105권2호
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• pp.216-222
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• 2016

본 연구에서는 산사태 발생 전 강우량의 특성과 누적 강우일수에 의한 누적강우량 분석을 통하여 산사태 발생에 미치는 누적강우량의 영향을 제시하였다. 산사태가 발생한 1520개소의 자료를 중심으로 산사태 발생 20일전까지 일강우량의 평균값은 1일전이 52.9 mm로 가장 많은 양을 보였고, 2일전이 22.8 mm, 6일전이 21.9 mm 순으로 나타났다. 누적 일수에 따른 누적강우량과 산사태 발생과의 관계에서 100 mm이하에서는 누적일수 3일을 기점으로 전체 1520개소 중 64.9%인 986개소가 발생하였다. 누적일수 5일은 전체 1520개소 중 60%인 846개소에서 발생하고 있어 3일이나 5일정도 누적된 강우량이 산사태 발생에 미치는 영향이 큰 시점으로 나타났다. 그러나 누적일수가 늘어남에 따라 누적강우량도 증가하지만 산사태 발생건수는 줄어드는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 101-200 mm에서는 10일, 201-300 mm에서는 14일, 301-400 mm에서는 18일 누적일수가 산사태 발생에 많은 기여를 하는 것으로 나타나 누적일수에 따른 산사태 예보 및 경보기준을 마련하여 인명 및 재산상의 피해를 최소화해야 할 필요성이 있을 것으로 생각된다.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제17권5호
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• pp.299-309
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• 2008

Cumulative effects can be defined as impacts on environment which results from incremental impacts of a proposed project, which covers other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions. The necessity of Cumulative Effect Assessment is that, when there are several projects near the project area, environmental effects of individual project can be larger or smaller than those of individual project without having projects nearby because of synergy, ascending and descending effects. This study was intended to help Environmental Impact Assessment practitioners identify spatial and temporal boundaries during the scoping stage. To do this, literature review of domestic and foreign legislations, guidelines, textbooks and papers related to Environmental Impact Assessment and Cumulative Effect Assessment was accomplished. This study suggests that continuous research be needed in order to identify spatial boundaries for other assessment fields and to develop methodologies for cumulative effect assessment.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제6권5호
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• pp.69-77
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• 2005

Change is inevitable and is a reality of construction projects. Most construction contracts include change clauses and allowing contractors an equitable adjustment to the contract price and duration caused by change. However, the actions of a contractor can cause a loss of productivity and furthermore can result in disruption of the whole project because of a cumulative or ripple effect. Because of its complicated nature, it becomes a complex issue to determine the cumulative impact (ripple effect) caused by single or multiple change orders. Furthermore, owners and contractors do not always agree on the adjusted contract price for the cumulative Impact of the changes. A number of studies have attempted to quantify the impact of change orders on project costs and schedule. Many of these attempted to develop regression models to quantify the loss. However, regression analysis has shortcomings in dealing with many qualitative or noisy input data. This study develops ANN models to classify and quantify the labor productivity losses that are caused by the cumulative impact of change orders. The results skew that ANN models give significantly improved performance compared to traditional statistical models.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.317-327
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• 2019

High-speed railway bridge piers in seismically active area may be subjected to multiple earthquakes and then produce cumulative residual deformation. To study the cumulative residual deformation of high-speed railway bridge piers under multiple earthquakes, a nonlinear numerical analytical model with multi-DOF (MDOF) system is presented and validated against two shaking table tests in this paper. Based on the presented model, a simple supported beam bridge pier model of high-speed railway is established and used to investigate the cumulative residual deformation of high-speed railway bridge pier under mainshock-aftershock sequences and swarm type seismic sequences. The results show that the cumulative residual deformation of the bridge pier increases with earthquake number, and the increasing rates are different under different earthquake number. The residual deformation of bridge pier subjected to multiple earthquakes is accumulated and may exceed the limit of code.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제62권2호
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• pp.225-236
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• 2017

The purpose of this work is to predict ductile fracture of structural steel under extremely low cyclic loading experienced in earthquake. A cumulative damage model is proposed on the basis of an existing damage model originally aiming to predict fracture under monotonic loading. The cumulative damage model assumes that damage does not grow when stress triaxiality is below a threshold and fracture occurs when accumulated damage reach unit. The model was implemented in ABAQUS software. The cumulative damage model parameters for steel base metal, weld metal and heat affected zone were calibrated, respectively, through testing and finite element analyses of notched coupon specimens. The damage evolution law in the notched coupon specimens under different loads was compared. Finally, in order to examine the engineering applicability of the proposed model, the fracture performance of beam-column welded joints reported by previous researches was analyzed based on the cumulative damage model. The analysis results show that the cumulative damage model is able to successfully predict the cracking location, fracture process, the crack initiation life, and the total fatigue life of the joints.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.130-142
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• 2018

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to introduce regression method in the presence of competing risks and to show how you can use the method with hypothetical data. Methods: Survival analysis has been widely used in biostatistics division. But the same method has not been utilized in reliability division. Especially competing risks, where more than a couple of causes of failure occur and the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of the other events, are scattered in reliability field. But they are not utilized in the area of reliability or they are analysed in the wrong way. Specifically Kaplan-Meier method is used to calculate the probability of failure in the presence of competing risks, thereby overestimating the real probability of failure. Hence, cumulative incidence function is introduced. In addition, sample competing risks data are analysed using cumulative incidence function along with some graphs. Lastly we compare cumulative incidence functions with regression type analysis briefly. Results: We used cumulative incidence function to calculate the survival probability or failure probability in the presence of competing risks. We also drew some useful graphs depicting the failure trend over the lifetime. Conclusion: This research shows that Kaplan-Meier method is not appropriate for the evaluation of survival or failure over the course of lifetime in the presence of competing risks. Cumulative incidence function is shown to be useful in stead. Some graphs using the cumulative incidence functions are also shown to be informative.