• 농촌계획
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.15-24
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• 2023

The sense of crisis regarding regional extinction due to low birth rates and an aging population is expanding. Generally, the local extinction index is used to analyze local extinction. However, it is challenging to diagnose the actual situation of village extinction risk in rural areas, even though the regional extinction index can be analyzed in units such as Si-Gun-Gu and Eup-Myeon-Dong. This difficulty arises because the regional extinction index solely relies on natural population growth indicators (elderly population and female population aged 20-39). Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a village extinction index that can identify the disappearance of rural villages. Additionally, the aim is to apply the developed indicators to the village (administrative ri) spatial unit. The existing regional extinction index used only mortality-related indicators as factors for natural population decline and fertility-related indicators as factors for natural population growth. However, the developed village extinction index included not only the factors of natural population change but also incorporated social population growth factors and factors related to the pace of village extinction. This is the key difference between the developed village extinction index and the existing regional extinction index. In this study, the indicators of "total population," "number of young women aged 20-44," "number of elderly population aged 70 or older," and "number of incoming population" were selected to develop a village extinction index. The village extinction index was developed by incorporating both natural population growth indicators and social population growth indicators. The developed village extinction index was applied to administrative villages. This research is expected to provide a more accurate understanding of the current state of rural villages facing extinction.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.181-190
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• 2021

This paper empirically examines the asymmetric response of the Indonesian Islamic stock market to macroeconomic variables encompassing money supply, domestic output, exchange rate, and Federal Reserve rate. Our study employs the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) after the financial crisis in the Southeast Asian country using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2019. Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed lag (NARDL) is applied. Our study considers two models consisting of the model without the Federal Reserve rate and the model with it. Our findings confirm the long-run link between Jakarta Islamic Index and macroeconomic factors being studied. Furthermore, the Jakarta Islamic Index asymmetrically responds to broad money supply and exchange rate, but not to domestic output and Federal Reserve rate. A reduction in the money supply has a worse effect on Islamic stock prices as compared to an increase in the money supply. The Jakarta Islamic Index responds differently to depreciation and appreciation. The transmission of the exchange rate to Islamic stock prices occurs only for appreciation. Our study finds an absence of transmission mechanism from the domestic output and the interest rate to Islamic stock prices. Our results imply that the easy money policy and stabilizing currency are key to supporting Indonesian Islamic stock prices.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.1414-1418
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• 2009

International construction projects typically manifest difficult, complex, and varied types of risk exposures; because of this, there is a need for accurate evaluation of risk-integrated performances during the timeframe of project execution. Given the financial crisis currently affecting the world economy recession, risk management has become a more crucial part for the success of international project management. However, the majority of risk management approaches, particularly for overseas projects, are focused primarily on simple forms of checklists, formalization of risk variables affecting project performance for a specific phase, or more complicated computational methods that restricting practical utilization in real-world projects; moreover, these methods lack the conceptual basis to broadly visualize the level of risk over all phases of a project. This study suggests an efficient, yet simple risk-integrated total index to successfully assess the risk levels of overseas construction projects. To this end, this paper first investigates the life cycles and key processes of decision-making for a given project and then derives formulas to represent the total risk index (TRI) along the key decision-making processes. In addition, the study examines the relationships between TRI and performance levels based on the analysis of 126 real-world project samples. Validations using the proposed TRI showed a high correlation to project performance, signifying the usefulness of the proposed approach for construction firms when investigating the level of risks and key areas for management focus.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2012년도 추계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.143-145
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• 2012

Overseas construction industry has performed the leading role in the economic development. In this study, effect of international oil prices, GDP and price index, on the regional international construction contract amount is compared and analyzed. Overseas construction market received a devastating effect due to the 1997's economic crisis. However, the market has remained stable since 1998, and since 2005, the trend has been a surge in new orders.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.31-40
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• 2015

This study proposes a mathematical model that can forecast national defense expenditures. The ongoing European debt crisis weighs heavily on markets; consequently, government spending in many countries will be constrained. However, a forecasting model to predict military spending is acutely needed for South Korea because security threats still exist and the estimation of military spending at a reasonable level is closely related to economic growth. This study establishes two models: an Auto-Regressive Moving Average model (ARIMA) based on past military expenditures and Transfer Function model with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate and consumer price index as input time series. The proposed models use defense spending data as of 2012 to create defense expenditure forecasts up to 2025.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.1-28
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• 2007

본고의 분석 결과 지니계수와 양극화지수가 이론적으로는 상이하나, 실증적으로는, 상관관계를 통해서 볼 때, 다른 지수라 보기 어렵다는 점이 확인되었다. 또한 DER지수의 추정을 통해 한국소득분포의 극화를 추정한 결과도 외환위기 전후로 소득분포의 극화가 지니계수로 측정되는 소득불평등도보다 심화되었다고 여길 수 없음이 확인되었다.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.277-303
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• 2023

The importance of ecosystem service such as green spaces has risen due to restrictions on outdoor activities amid the climate crisis and COVID-19. While gardens significantly impact economic development, quality of life, and social well-being, comprehensive studies on their multidimensional values are lacking. This research categorizes garden values into social, cultural, environmental, and health dimensions and proposes an integrated assessment framework that introduces detailed elements and evaluation methods. An empirical assessment of carbon storage index in two Korean gardens, Semiwon and Juknokwon, reveals Semiwon's higher carbon storage per unit area. The proposed framework, emphasizing a quantitative approach, enables cross-national and regional comparisons, contributing to a broader understanding and evaluation of garden values beyond specific facilities.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.429-442
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• 2015

변동성(volatility)은 투자위험을 의미하며 자산의 가격결정이나 포트폴리오 관리 및 투자전략에서 아주 중요한 역할을 한다. 이러한 변동성을 모형화하기 위한 조건부 이분산 모형으로서 전통적인 GARCH(generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic) 모형 및 확장된 형태들이 널리 사용되어지고 있으나, 금융위기와 재정위기와 같은 구조적 변화를 변동성 예측에 반영할 수 없다는 단점을 가지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 이를 극복하기 위한 모형으로서 국면전환 GARCH(Markov regime switching GARCH) 모형을 소개하고, 한국의 일별 KOSPI 수익률에 적용하여 변동성 분석 및 예측을 실시하고, 기존의 GARCH 모형들과 비교하여 그 성능을 평가한다. 그 결과 표본 내(in-sample)의 변동성 적합도 측면에서 국면전환 GARCH 모형이 가장 우수한 성능을 보였으며, 표본 외(out-of-sample) 예측력 측면에서는 국면전환 GARCH 모형이 단기적 예측에서 좋지 않은 성능을 보였으나 장기적 예측에서 우수함을 보였다.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제55권6호
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• pp.578-585
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• 2022

Objectives: This study aimed to adapt the survey questionnaire designed by Moens et al. (2021) and determine the validity and reliability of the Arabic version of the survey in a sample of the Saudi population experiencing teleworking. Methods: The questionnaire includes 2 sections. The first consists of 13 items measuring the impact of extended telework during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis. The second section includes 6 items measuring the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on selfview of telework and digital meetings. The survey instrument was translated based on the guidelines for the cultural adaptation of self-administrated measures. Results: The reliability of the questionnaire responses was measured by Cronbach's alpha. The construct validity was checked through exploratory factor analysis followed by confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to further assess the factor structure. CFA revealed that the model had excellent fit (root mean square error of approximation, 0.00; comparative fit index, 1.0; Tucker-Lewis index, 1; standardized root mean squared residual, 0.0). Conclusions: The Arabic version of the teleworking questionnaire had high reliability and good validity in assessing experiences and perceptions toward teleworking. While the validated survey examined perceptions and experiences during COVID-19, its use can be extended to capture experiences and perceptions during different crises.

• 한국언론정보학보
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• 제35권
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• pp.181-210
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• 2006

본 연구는 식품 안전을 둘러싼 위험 상황을 보도하는 언론의 보도 프레임을 추출, 언론이 위험 상황을 위기의 사회 현실로 구축해가는 양상을 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 1989년 삼양라면 우지파동에서 2005년 김치 기생충 알 검출 사건에 이르는 11개 식품안전 사고를 보도한 언론보도 내용을 대상으로 미디어 프레임을 분석, 각 프레임을 이루는 장치를 통해 언론이 위기를 구축해가는 양상을 추적했다. 분석에 사용된 프레임은 책임소재, 갈등, 인간적측면의 부각, 경제적 결과, 도덕성 등 다섯 가지 프레임이었으며, 연구 결과 이들 프레임에는 위기 확산, 책임 소재, 갈등 부각 등의 현저성이 두드러졌다. 특히 각 프레임을 구성하는 행위자는 가해자와 피해자라는 이분법적 대비 구조를 나타냈다. 기사에 등장하는 행위의 주체인 식품업자, 정부 및 해당관청, 소비자, 전문가 등은 이러한 갈등, 혹은 대비 구조의 프레임 안에서 때론 가해자로, 때로는 피해자로 틀짓기 되며 위험의 상황을 확산, 증폭 시키면서 소비자들의 혼란을 야기하고 위기의 사회현실을 구축하는 것으로 나타났다.