• Title/Summary/Keyword: Crisis Index

Search Result 168, Processing Time 0.022 seconds

Relationships between Real Estate Markets and Economic Growth in Vietnam

  • Nguyen, My-Linh Thi;Bui, Toan Ngoc;Nguyen, Thang Quyet
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.6 no.1
    • /
    • pp.121-128
    • /
    • 2019
  • This study analyses the relationship between the real estate market and economic growth in Vietnam, a country with a fledgling real estate market. Research data included economic growth rate and growth rate of the real estate market in Vietnam. The research used quarterly data for the period from 2005: Q1 to 2018: Q1. With the characteristics of Vietnam, there has been no real estate index up to now; therefore, the research used data on growth rates of the real estate market. In addition, the real estate market in Vietnam is still young, so the data series is very short, which is a limitation of this research. With qualitative and quantitative methods especially with the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model; the results of the study indicate new findings, unlike previous studies, including: (1) The real estate market positively impacts Vietnam's economic growth, most noticeably in the second quarter lag and the fourth quarter lag, and then its trend impacts inversely; (2) The real estate market and economic growth in Vietnam have fluctuated over time with many risks that are affected by the past shocks of these factors. From these findings, we proposed some managerial implications for managing the real estate market with economic growth in Vietnam sustainably.

Do Islamic Stock Markets Diversify the Financial Uncertainty Risk? Evidence from Selected Islamic Countries

  • AZIZ, Tariq;MARWAT, Jahanzeb;ZEESHAN, Asma;PARACHA, Yaser;AL-HADDAD, Lara
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.8 no.3
    • /
    • pp.31-38
    • /
    • 2021
  • The study investigates the diversification behavior of Islamic stocks against US financial uncertainty. Considering limitations found in the literature, a comprehensive index of financial uncertainty (FU) is used, developed by Jurado, Ludvigson, and Ng (2015). The empirical analysis uses monthly data from four Islamic markets - Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Turkey - for the period from January 2010 to September 2019. Results of the bivariate EGARCH models show that Islamic stocks can be used for diversification purpose against the financial uncertainty of the US because the volatility of US uncertainty does not propagate in the Islamic stock markets. Moreover, findings show that the spillover effect of financial uncertainty varies with the FU forecast horizon. The spillover effect of FU increases with an increase in the FU forecast horizon and becomes significant over 3-month and 12-month periods in the case of Saudi Arabia. The current volatility of Islamic stock returns is independent of the size of shocks in past volatility. The leverage effect and asymmetry have been found in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. The findings validate the arguments of the literature that Islamic markets are resilient facing uncertainties and perform well during crisis periods. The findings are important for investors in making better portfolio decisions.

The Negative Effect of COVID 19 Pandemic on Sports Leisure Recreation Retailers, and its Solutions

  • SEONG, Dong-Ho;SEONG, Nakhun
    • Journal of Distribution Science
    • /
    • v.20 no.2
    • /
    • pp.91-100
    • /
    • 2022
  • Purpose: The sports industry is a major form of leisure and entertainment, but the industry was tremendously affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. This study gives solutions for sports leisure retail stores to the effects of the Covid-19 crisis on consumers' sports products purchasing habits and then gives a logical conclusion regarding the findings of the topic. Research design, data and methodology: Scant research is available to feedback for owners and managers of sports leisure retail stores which elements could be considered to recover their business prior to the pandemic. For achieving this, this study investigated total 284 responses in the retail stores and conducted the ANOVA analysis to compare the level of intensity on the impact Covid 19 pandemic. Results: Our findings suggests that there was a statistically recognizable difference at the significance level of probability between the mean value of the impact index of Covid 19 pandemic and key recovery strategies, indicating the high degree of Covid 19 impact can be reducing by four solutions. Conclusions: Finally, this study concludes the specific entertainment elements that influence the purchasing behavior of consumers will ensure that the Sports industry deals with its internal problems first without necessarily looking at the outside factors such as the pandemic.

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Indonesia's Economy and Alternative Prospects for Untact Society

  • Lee, Kyungchan
    • SUVANNABHUMI
    • /
    • v.13 no.2
    • /
    • pp.7-35
    • /
    • 2021
  • This research is an attempt to understand the economic and social consequences that are occurring in Indonesia due to the spread of COVID-19. Indonesia, which has maintained solid economic growth since the inauguration of President Jokowi's government, is also experiencing difficulties to deal with unexpected COVID-19 pandemic as the global economic turmoil has had a very significant impact on its economy. The economic impact of COVID-19 can be felt, starting from the phenomenon of panic buying, the free fall of the stock price index, the depreciation of the Rupiah against the Dollar, sluggish activities in the processing industry, and ultimately it has an impact on slowing economic growth. Various policies and measures have been taken by the Indonesian government to minimize the negative impact caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy. One such area is electronic commerce business or e-commerce that witnessed a vast increase of online and non-cash transaction amid rising voices that the country needs to prepare for the advent of a new economic system, the so-called New Normal era. The Covid-19 pandemic will temporarily slow economic growth and delay some development projects and policy initiatives as the Indonesian government diverts capital from infrastructure development to help respond to the crisis. However, the Jokowi administration's efforts for continuous reform are expected to accelerate the transition to the digital economy.

An Investigation of Trading Strategies using Korean Stocks and U.S. Dollar (국내 주식과 미 달러를 이용한 투자전략에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Chan;Yang, Ki-Sung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
    • /
    • v.13 no.2
    • /
    • pp.123-138
    • /
    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study compares the performances of dynamic asset allocation strategies using Korean stocks and U.S. dollar, which have been negatively correlated for a long time, to examine the diversification effects in the portfolios of them. Design/methodology/approach - In the current study, we use KOSPI200 index, as a proxy of the aggregated portfolio of Korean stocks, and USDKRW foreign exchange rate to implement various portfolio management strategies. We consider the equally-weighted, risk-parity, minimum variance, most diversified, and growth optimal portfolios for comparison. Findings - We first find the enhancement of risk adjusted returns due to risk reduction rather than return increasement for all the portfolios of consideration. Second, the enhancement is more pronounced for the trading strategies using correlations as well as volatilities compared to those using volatilities only. Third, the diversification effect has become stronger after the global financial crisis in 2008. Lastly, we find that the performance of the growth optimal portfolio can be improved by utilizing the well-known momentum phenomenon in stock markets to select the length of the sample period to estimate the expected return. Research implications or Originality - This study shows the potential benefits of adding the U.S. dollar to the portfolios of Korean stocks. The current study is the first to investigate the portfolio of Korean stocks and U.S. dollar from investment perspective.

The Effects of Financial Market Uncertainty: Does Regime Change Occur During Financial Market Crises? (금융시장 불확실성의 효과: 금융시장 위기 기간 중 국면전환이 발생하였는가?)

  • Kim, Seewon
    • Economic Analysis
    • /
    • v.25 no.3
    • /
    • pp.70-99
    • /
    • 2019
  • Using a stochastic volatility-in-mean VAR model consisting of the KOSPI index, the foreign exchange rate, the government bond rate, and the credit spread, this study investigates the effects of financial market uncertainty on financial markets. We find that higher uncertainty has recessionary effects on financial markets. The effects are especially stronger in equity markets and in won-dollar exchange markets. We also find that the effects of uncertainty become stronger during times of financial market stress compared to normal times. Finally, the results imply that financial market uncertainty may potentially affect the real sector, too.

An Analysis on the pass-through of Korean export prices of Exchange rate changes (글로벌 금융위기 이후 환률변동과 수출가격)

  • Choi, Chang-Yeoul;Ham, Hyung-Bum
    • International Commerce and Information Review
    • /
    • v.13 no.4
    • /
    • pp.229-249
    • /
    • 2011
  • The exchange rate change has been increased since the time when the floating exchange rate system was introduced in Korea. As a result, the increase of the exchange rate changes raised the risk in international trades in Korea. Also after Bretton Woods System broke down, the increasing exchange rate fluctuation raised the risk in international trade. The purpose of this dissertation is to study whether this incomplete pass-through exists in Korean export industry and furthermore to measure the markup rate of the export price using real data since Global Financial Crisis. The estimation results of the export price determination model by Error Correction Model shows that the export price of Korea has been greatly influenced by the export prices and exchange rates against U.S. Dollar of rival countries, domestic producer price as well as the Korean Won-U.S. Dollar exchange rate and also business coincidence index of U.S. in demand. Particularly, the pass-through rate of Korean Won-U.S. Dollar exchange rate to export price is estimated to be incomplete, which contrasts with the propositions of traditional exchange rate determination approach, e. g. elasticity approach, monetary approach, etc.

  • PDF

Factor Prices and Markup in the Korean Manufacturing Industry: An Empirical Analysis 1975-2007 (한국의 생산요소가격 변화가 마크업의 변동에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증분석: 1975-2007)

  • Kang, Joo Hoon;Park, Sehoon
    • International Area Studies Review
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.77-100
    • /
    • 2011
  • The Korean economy have experienced the remarkable decreases in factor prices such as bond yields, real wage since the IMF foreign exchange crisis. This paper investigates the effects of the price changes in the factor markets on determining the level and cyclicality of industrial markups in the manufacturing industry. For this purpose, we construct a markup equation in the small open economy based on the production function including foreign intermediate goods and assuming constant returns to scale technology and AR(1) process of technological coefficient. Empirical results are summarized as the followings. The empirical results shows that the increased markups after the IMF crisis can be explained by the price decreases in the factor markets which result in lowering marginal costs. And we also observed counter cyclicality of markup, labor share and interest rates while real wages, technical coefficients, and production price index proved to be pro-cyclical. In conclusion, the price changes in factor market have contributed to the stickiness in markup fluctuation in the manufacturing industry.

Analysis on Productivity Change in Korean Shipbuilding Industry using Malmquist Productivity Index (Malmquist 생산성 지수(MPI)를 이용한 한국 조선 산업의 생산성 변화)

  • Park, Seok-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.34 no.1
    • /
    • pp.51-64
    • /
    • 2018
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyze the productivity change of the Korean shipbuilding industry between 2001-2008 and 2008-2015 by using MPI(Malmquist Productivity Index) to decompose the sources of total factor productivity growth into technical efficiency change, scale efficiency change, pure efficiency change, technical change. The empirical results are as follows. In the first half of the year (2001-2008), productivity increased by 2.8%, which was due to technological advances rather than technical efficiency. In the second half (2008-2015), productivity change declined by -3.4%. This is attributable to the technical efficiency deterioration and technological degeneration caused by a decrease in shipbuilding orders due to the global economic downturn after the global financial crisis and the rise of Chinese shipbuilding industry. In the first half of the period, productivity change was higher than in the second half. Especially, the difference between the two periods is attributed to the technical change and it was proved by statistical verification. The policy implications of this paper suggest that the government and each DMU need to develop new technologies to cope with changes in the global shipbuilding industry environment and strategies to eliminate inefficiencies in order to increase productivity in the future.

A Study on the Cargo Throughout of Yeosu·Gawangyang Port by Concentration Index (집중지수로 본 여수·광양항의 화물처리현황 분석)

  • Jang, Heung-Hoon;Kim, Sora
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.35 no.4
    • /
    • pp.169-186
    • /
    • 2019
  • This study suggests a development direction by comparing the cargo throughput of the port of Yeosu-Gwangyang during 2007-2015 with that of domestic ports. It derived a concentration index (HHI) of cargo throughput in domestic ports by Yeosu-Gwangyang port docks, shipping companies, and abroad regions. The main results were as follows. First, in terms of total cargo handled, the port of Yeosu-Gwangyang was second only to the port of Busan, and the HHIs for the past nine years were relatively low. Second, the port of Yeosu-Gwangyang ranked first for total import and export cargo throughput, showing relatively stable HHIs from 2007 to 2015. Third, the HHIs of container handling performance by national shipping companies showed stable levels below 1,800. Fourth, there were no regions where cargo volume was noticeably concentrated in the port of Yeosu-Gwangyang, and it showed cargo throughput across various abroad regions. While changes in national shipping companies are expected after the Hanjin Shipping Crisis, there should be no serious concern regarding the dependence of the port of Yeosu-Gwangyang. It is expected to develop further by realizing the full use of all its facilities, diversifying the tenants in the Yeosu-Gwangyang area, and improving the demurrage rate.