• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.25-39
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• 2016

Asset prices decline sharply and stock markets collapse when financial crisis happens. Recently we have encountered more frequent financial crises than ever. 1998 currency crisis and 2008 global financial crisis triggered academic researches on early warning systems that aim to detect the symptom of financial crisis in advance. This study proposes a risk recovery index for detection of good opportunities from financial market instability. We use SVM classifier algorithms to separate recovery period from unstable financial market data. Input variables are KOSPI index and V-KOSPI200 index. Our SVM algorithms show highly accurate forecasting results on testing data as well as training data. Risk recovery index is derived from our SVM-trained outputs. We develop a trading system that utilizes the suggested risk recovery index. The trading result records very high profit, that is, its annual return runs to 121%.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.39-51
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• 2009

The misery index is the sum of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. The higher the index, the lower the performance of the national economy. Lee and Cheong (2007) propose that the open misery index, defined to be the sum of the misery index and the ratio of current account to GDP, properly measure the economic performance of a national economy when its degree of openness is large. This paper shows that the periods of rising open misery index of the USA coincide with those of economic hardship in the USA. Most recently, the open misery index of the USA has shown a rising trend for a decade prior to the current economic crisis. That is, external and internal imbalances of the USA have accumulated for a decade prior to the current economic crisis. We interpret the recent rising trend of the open misery index of the USA as a precursor of the current economic crisis.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.209-223
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• 2024

Purpose - This article analyzes the impact of macroeconomic variables of the United States, China, and Korea on KOSPI and VKOSPI, in that United States and China have a great influence on Korea, having an export-driven economy. Design/methodology/approach - The influence of US, China, and Korea interest rates, industrial production index, consumer price index, US employment index, Chinese real estate index, and Korea's foreign exchange reserves on KOSPI and VKOSPI is analyzed on monthly basis from Jan 2012 to Aug 2023, using multifactor model. Findings - The KOSPI showed a positive relationship with the U.S. industrial production index and Korea's foreign exchange reserves, and a negative relationship with the U.S. employment index and Chinese real estate index. The VKOSPI showed a positive relationship with the Chinese consumer price index, and a negative relationship with the U.S. interest rates, and Korean foreign exchange reserves. Next, dividing the analysis into two periods with the Covid crisis and the analysis by country, the impact of US macroeconomic variables on KOSPI was greater than Chinese ones and the impact of Chinese macroeconomic variables on VKOSPI was greater than US ones. The result of the forward predictive failure test confirmed that it was appropriate to divide the period into two periods with economic event, the Covid Crisis. After the Covid crisis, the impact of macroeconomic variables on KOSPI and VKOSPI increased. This reflects the financial market co-movements due to governments' policy coordination and central bank liquidity supply to overcome the crisis in the pandemic situation. Research implications or Originality - This study is meaningful in that it analyzed the effects of macroeconomic variables on KOSPI and VKOSPI simultaneously. In addition, the leverage effect can also be confirmed through the relationship between macroeconomic variables and KOSPI and VKOSPI. This article examined the fundamental changes in the Korean and global financial markets following the shock of Corona by applying this research model before and after Covid crisis.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.499-506
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• 2017

Consideration of influential factors through division of capital market sector and interest rate sector to find and resolve the problems in current housing market and leasing market will become an important index to prepare measures for stabilization of housing sales market and housing lease market. Furthermore, a guideline will be provide you with preliminary data using Big Data to prepare for sudden price fluctuation because expected economic crisis, stock market situation, and uncertain future financial crisis can be predicted which may help anticipate real estate price index such as housing sales price index and housing lease price index.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.63-74
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• 2018

Recently, in the asset management industry, the smart beta strategy, which has an intermediate nature between passive and active strategies, is attracting attention. In this smart beta strategy, value, momentum, low volatility, and quality index are widely used. In this study, we analyzed the quality index which is not clear and complicated to calculate. According to the MSCI methodology, the quality index was calculated using three variables: return on equity, debt to equity, and earnings variability. In addition, we use the index using only return on equity variable, the index using only two variables of return on equity and debt to equity, and the KOSPI index as comparison targets for the quality index. In order to evaluate the performance of the indices used in the analysis, the arithmetic mean return, the coefficient of variation, and the geometric mean return were used. In addition, Fama and French (1993) model, which is widely used in related studies, was used as a pricing model to test whether abnormal returns in each index are occurring. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, in all period analysis, quality index was the best in terms of holding period returns. Second, the quality index performed best in the currency crisis and the global financial crisis. Third, abnormal returns were not found in all indices before the global financial crisis. Fourth, in the period after the global financial crisis, the quality index has the highest abnormal return.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.10
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• pp.250-258
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• 2019

Due to the problems associated with the aging of industrial complexes, research on the decline of industrial complexes is being conducted. In the case of decline, it is necessary to not respond immediately, but with a crisis, it is necessary to minimize the impact on the industrial complex through preemptive responses to the external environment and internal changes. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a crisis index that can systematically predict and evaluate changes in the industrial complex. In this research, a method for extracting the crisis index of an industrial complex is developed. We derive performance measures for developing the crisis index, deriving the relative importance of performance measures based on the analytical hierarchy process. Because units of performance measurement are different, a normalization method is developed to sensitively reflect change. Based on the relative importance and normalized values of the performance measures, the crisis index of the industrial complex is developed and applied to a national industrial complex in order to verify its applicability.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.257-267
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• 2019

The paper aims to test long-term and short-term causality from four exchange rates, the Korean won/$US, the Korean won/Euro, the Korean won/Japanese yen, and the Korean won/Chinese yuan, to the Korea Composite Stock Price Index in the presence of several macroeconomic variables using monthly data from January 1986 to June 2018. The results of Johansen cointegration tests show that there exists at least one cointegrating equation, which indicates that long-run causality from an exchange rate to the Korean stock market will exist. The results of vector error correction estimates show that: for long-term causality, the coefficient of the error correction term is significant with a negative sign, that is, long-term causality from exchange rates to the Korean stock market is observed. For short-term causality, the coefficient of the Japanese yen exchange rate is significant with a positive sign, that is, short-term causality from the Japanese yen exchange rate to the Korean stock market is observed. The coefficient of the financial crises i.e. 1997-1999 Asian financial crisis and 2007-2008 global financial crisis on the endogenous variables in the model and the Korean economy is significant. The result indicates that the financial crises have considerably affected the Korean economy, especially a negative effect on money supply.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.1-14
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• 2019

This paper studies whether export diversification mitigated the negative effect of the global financial crisis on exports using the Korean case. Specifically, we use annual data on the exports of 24 Korean manufacturing industries from 2000 to 2016 and examine whether the negative effect of the crisis on exports was less prevalent in industries that were more diversified in terms of country and product. We also examine whether export competitiveness, as measured by the revealed comparative advantage index by industry, had a mitigating effect on trade during the crisis. In order to study these issues, we use panel regression with a fixed-effect model for 24 Korean manufacturing industries. From our empirical analysis, we find that country diversification weakened the negative impact of the global financial crisis on Korea's exports, whereas neither product diversification nor export competitiveness did so.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.759-770
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• 2021

Using a DCC - GARCH model analysis, this paper examines the existence of financial contagion from the U.S. stock market to the Vietnamese and the Philippine stock markets during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. We use daily data from the S&P 500 (U.S.), VN-Index (Vietnam), and the PSEi (the Philippines). As a result, there is no evidence of contagion from the U.S stock market to the Philippine stock market that can be found during global financial crisis, while the Vietnamese market is influenced by this effect. Besides, both these developing stock markets (the Vietnamese and Philippine stock markets) are influenced by the contagion effect in COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Another finding is that the contagion effect during the coronavirus pandemic crisis in Vietnam is smaller than that during the global financial crisis, however, the opposite is the case for the Philippines. It is noticed that the Philippines seems to be more affected by the contagion effect from the COVID-19 pandemic than Vietnam at the time of this study. Because financial contagion is important for monetary policy, asset pricing, risk measurement, and portfolio allocation, the findings in this paper may give some useful information for policymakers and investors.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.113-125
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• 2008

This paper investigates the spillover effects(co-movements) between korean and U.S stock market by KOSPI and DJIA Index. Especially it compare to the pre- and post period of U.S. financial crisis resulted from sub-prime mortgage loan. The main results are as follows. First, the spillover effects of DJIA(U.S. market) to KOSPI(Korean market) are strong. This result accord with the former researches on this subject. Second, spillover effects are more strong after U.S. financial crisis. A possible reason for this phenomenon is a trend which the major investors such as foreign and institutional investors in domestic stock market have more attention to U.S. stock market. Third, the spillover effects appear in the opposite direction, that is KOSPI(Korean Stock Market) to DJIA(U.S. Stock Market). It seems to be the results of asian stock market's growing infIuences to European and U.S Markets.