• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.1-34
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• 2010

We conduct a comprehensive risk analysis of household debt in Korea for the first time using the whole sample credit bureau (CB) data of 2.2 million individual debtors. After analysing debt service capacity profiles of debtor groups classified by the borrower characteristics such as income, age, occupation, credit scoring, and the type of creditor business companies, we investigate the impact of interest rate and income changes on debt service-to-income ratios (DTIs) and default rates of respective debtor groups. Empirical results indicate that debt service burdens are relatively high for low income wage earners, high income self-employed, low income capital and card loan holders, and high income mutual savings loan holders. We also find that debtors from multiple financial companies are particularly weak in their debt service capacity. The scenario analysis indicates that financial companies, with the current level of capital buffers, may be able to absorb negative consequences arising from the increase in DTIs and loan default rates if the interest rate and income changes remain modest. However, the negative consequences may fall disproportionately on non-bank financial companies such as capital, credit card, and mutual savings banks, whose debtors' DTIs are already high. We also find that the refinancing risk of household debt is relatively high in Korea as more than half of household mortgage debts are bullet loans. As the DTIs of mortgage loan holders are already high, under the current DTI regulation, mortgage loans may not be readily refinanced especially when the interest rate rises. Disruptions in mortgage loan refinancing may put downward pressure on housing prices, which may in turn magnify refinancing risk under the current loan-to-value (LTV) regulation. Overall our analysis suggests that, for more effective monitoring of household debt risk, it is necessary to combine existing surveillance schemes based on macro aggregate indicators with more comprehensive and detailed risk analyses based on micro individual data.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.1293-1305
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• 2016

In this paper, we develop debt collection predictive models for the person in arrears by utilizing the direct loan data of the Korea Student Aid Foundation. We suggest credit risk scorecards for overdue student direct loan using the developed 3 models. Model 1 is designed for 1 month overdue, Model 2 is designed for 2 months overdue, and Model 3 is designed for overdue over 2 months. Model 1 shows that the major influencing factors for the delinquency are overdue account, due data for payment, balance, household income. Model 2 shows that the major influencing factors for delinquency loan are days in arrears, balance, due date for payment, arrears. Model 3 shows that the major influencing factors for delinquency are the number of overdue in recent 3 months, due data for payment, overdue account, arrears. The debt collection predictive models and credit risk scorecards in this study will be the basis for segmented management service and the call & collection strategies for preventing delinquency.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.1065-1075
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• 2008

For the model validation of credit rating models, Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S) statistic has been widely used as a testing method of discriminatory power from the probabilities of default for default and non-default. For the credit rating works, K-S statistics are to test two identical distribution functions which are partitioned from a distribution. In this paper under the assumption that the distribution is known, modified K-S statistic which is formulated by using known distributions is proposed and compared K-S statistic.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.119-131
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• 2024

In recent years, there has been a significant growth in loan comparson services offered by fintech platforms in South Korea. However, it has been reported that loan comparison platform users tend to have a higher risk of default compared to non-users. This paper investigates the difference in platform-specific credit risk factors using survival analysis models - Kaplan-Meier curves and Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model. Our findings show that, relative to non-users, users of loan comparison platforms are characterized by elevated default rates, a greater propensity for home ownership, lower credit scores, and shorter loan durations. Furthermore, our AFT models elucidate the variance in default risk among the various loan comparison service platforms, highlighting the imperative for customized strategies that address the unique risk profiles of customers on each platform.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.39
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• pp.59-85
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• 2008

An independent bank guarantee(aka an independent guarantee) is provided as an security on a principal obligor's performance of his obligation, and a guarantor should pay the guaranteed amount only upon a beneficiary's written demand. A standby letter of credit has been used in the United States, since it was construed that a bank should not issue a guarantee. There was wide misunderstanding that a standby letter of credit differs from an independent bank guarantee. However, a standby letter of credit is the same security as an independent bank guarantee, and in international business a standby letter of credit is not differentiated from a independent bank guarantee. An independent bank guarantee are independent from the underlying contract, unconditional, and irrevocable. And a guarantor should pay upon written demand without proving a principal obligor breaches the underlying contract. These features of an independent bank guarantee has been abused in international transactions. Thus it has been proposed that some exceptions to the features of an independent bank guarantee should be allowed. United Nations Convention on Independent Guarantees and Standby Letter of Credit(1995) stipulates some exceptions to payment obligation. Export bond insurance, a part of export insurances, operated by the Korea Export Insurance Corporation under the Export Insurance Act, is used as a security for unfair calling by a beneficiary under an independent bank guarantee. Most of the export subsides by the government are prohibited under WTO's Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures. However, as export insurance is allowed under the WTO, it operates a significant role in enhancing the export. In the event that export bond insurance is provided for a guarantor, an obligor who is subject to recourse by a guarantor, can be exempt from the recourse in case of unfair calling. The Korea Export Insurance Corporation, an insurer, bears unfair calling risk by a beneficiary. Generally it is understood that a demand shall be made before the expiry of an independent bank guarantee. However this is not absolutely true, it shall be decided by URDG, ISP98, the governing law.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.33-40
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• 2016

Credit card is means of payment used like cash in terms of function and its users have increased consistently. With development of Internet and electronic commerce a role as payment method of credit card has been growing. But as the risk which results from centralized information and online increases, credit card fraud is also growing. Card theft and loss are decreasing due to countermeasure of card companies and financial supervisory authorities, while card forge and identity theft are increasing. Recently because of frequent personal information leakage and deregulation of financial security following easy-to-use payment enforcement, customer's anxiety about card fraud is growing. And the increase of card fraud lowers trust on credit system as well as causes social costs. In this paper, the security problems of card operating system are addressed in depth and the measures such as immediate switch to IC card terminals, introduction of new security technology, supervision reinforcement of the authorities are proposed.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.65 no.6
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• pp.923-933
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• 2016

This paper proposes a new method for evaluating Effective Load Carrying Capability(ELCC) and capacity credit(C.C.) of power system including Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) combined with Battery Energy Storage System(BESS). WTG can only generate electricity power when the fuel(wind) is available. Because of fluctuation of wind speed, WTG generates intermittent power. In view point of reliability of power system, intermittent power of WTG is similar with probabilistic characteristics based on power on-off due to mechanical availability of conventional generator. Therefore, high penetration of WTG will occur difficulties in power operation. The high penetration of numerous and large capacity WTG can make risk to power system adequacy, quality and stability. Therefore, the penetration of WTG is limited in the world. In recent, it is expected that BESS installed at wind farms may smooth the wind power fluctuation. This study develops a new method to assess how much is penetration of WTG able to extended when Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) is combined with Battery Energy Storage System(BESS). In this paper, the assessment equation of capacity credit of WTG combined with BESS is formulated newly. The simulation program, is called GNRL_ESS, is developed in this study. This paper demonstrates a various case studies of ELCC and capacity credit(C.C.) of power system containing WTG combined with BESS using model system as similar as Jeju island power system. The case studies demonstrate that not only reasonable BESS capacity for a WTG but also permissible penetration percent of WTG combined with BESS and reasonable WTG capacity for a BESS can be decided.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.41-57
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• 2009

Although financial information is a great influence upon determining of the group which use them, detection of management fraud and earning manipulation is a difficult task using normal audit procedures and corporate credit evaluation processes, due to the shortage of knowledge concerning the characteristics of management fraud, and the limitation of time and cost. These limitations suggest the need of systemic process for !he effective risk of earning manipulation for credit evaluators, external auditors, financial analysts, and regulators. Moot researches on management fraud have examined how various characteristics of the company's management features affect the occurrence of corporate fraud. This study examines financial characteristics of companies engaged in fraudulent financial reporting and suggests a model and system for detecting GAAP violations to improve reliability of accounting information and transparency of their management. Since the detection of management fraud has limited proven theory, this study used the detecting method of outlier(upper, and lower bound) financial ratio, as a real-field application. The strength of outlier detecting method is its use of easiness and understandability. In the suggested model, 14 variables of the 7 useful variable categories among the 76 financial ratio variables are examined through the distribution analysis as possible indicators of fraudulent financial statements accounts. The developed model from these variables show a 80.82% of hit ratio for the holdout sample. This model was developed as a financial outlier detecting system for a financial institution. External auditors, financial analysts, regulators, and other users of financial statements might use this model to pre-screen potential earnings manipulators in the credit evaluation system. Especially, this model will be helpful for the loan evaluators of financial institutes to decide more objective and effective credit ratings and to improve the quality of financial statements.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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• v.29 no.5 s.142
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• pp.637-648
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• 2005

The purpose of this study was to investigate the differences among internet and TV home-shopping perceived risk segments in regard to clothing shopping orientations and purchase intention. The subjects used for the study were 290 female consumers aged from 20 to 40 living in Seoul. The study used factor analysis, cluster analysis, ANOVA, Duncan test, and $\chi^2-test$. The results showed that the Internet and TV home-shopping perceived risks consisted of 9 factors: Products uncertainty risk, Internet shopping mall trust risk, account-related risk, delivery risk, social risk, size risk, exchange/return risk, TV watching-related risk, and price risk. The cluster analysis showed that there were five groups segmented: Size risk/TV watching risk group, Social risk/Internet trust risk group, Return risk/TV watching low-risk group, Delivery risk/product trust group, and Product risk group. The clothing shopping orientations were classified by 5 factors: Planned shopping, pleasure shopping, sales/fashion oriented shopping, time saving shopping, and credit card preference/in-store oriented shopping. The results showed that the five segmented perceived risk groups differed in regard to clothing shopping orientations, purchase intention, and demographics. Further group differences and implications of the results were discussed.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.227-260
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• 2019

This paper offers a comprehensive view of international risk sharing and of related policy issues from the perspective of the European Union. The traditional analyses contemplate three risk-sharing channels: the capital markets channel (through cross border portfolio investments), international transfers and the credit markets channel (via savings). Comparative analyses reveal that, on average, about 80% of the shock remains unsmoothed in Europe while only about 18% of the shock is transmitted to consumers within the US. From aggregated figures, there is space for improving, particularly, the cross-border investments channel in Europe. In this sense, the completion of the Banking and Capital Markets Union are expected to boost risk sharing across European member states. We also review new additional issues usually not contemplated by the traditional literature as depreciation, migration and the role of sovereigns and two new additional channels recently considered in the literature: government consumption and the real exchange rate. Finally, we also examine recent analysis related to the geographic distribution of risk sharing.