• Title/Summary/Keyword: Credit Rating

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Restoring the Role of Credit Rating Agencies as Gatekeepers (신용평가기능 개선을 위한 과제)

  • CHO, Sungbin
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.81-110
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    • 2011
  • Credit rating agencies(CRAs) are accused of failing to provide accurate and fair credit ratings and hence being responsible for the crisis. This paper tries to add on to the literature on credit rating reform through examining the CRAs in a model where rating quality is unobservable. We show that unobservability of rating effort results in the sub-optimal level of quality. Then the paper extends the model to incorporate ancillary services, competition and reputation. We show that ancillary services worsen the conflict of interests of the CRAs and that competition and reputation may not be strong enough to discipline the CRAs. Hence regulatory oversight and imposition of liability may be necessary in order to increase the accuracy of ratings.

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Corporate credit rating prediction using support vector machines

  • Lee, Yong-Chan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.571-578
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    • 2005
  • Corporate credit rating analysis has drawn a lot of research interests in previous studies, and recent studies have shown that machine learning techniques achieved better performance than traditional statistical ones. This paper applies support vector machines (SVMs) to the corporate credit rating problem in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. To serve this purpose, the researcher uses a grid-search technique using 5-fold cross-validation to find out the optimal parameter values of kernel function of SVM. In addition, to evaluate the prediction accuracy of SVM, the researcher compares its performance with those of multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), case-based reasoning (CBR), and three-layer fully connected back-propagation neural networks (BPNs). The experiment results show that SVM outperforms the other methods.

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Corporate Bond Rating Using Various Multiclass Support Vector Machines (다양한 다분류 SVM을 적용한 기업채권평가)

  • Ahn, Hyun-Chul;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.157-178
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    • 2009
  • Corporate credit rating is a very important factor in the market for corporate debt. Information concerning corporate operations is often disseminated to market participants through the changes in credit ratings that are published by professional rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's (S&P) and Moody's Investor Service. Since these agencies generally require a large fee for the service, and the periodically provided ratings sometimes do not reflect the default risk of the company at the time, it may be advantageous for bond-market participants to be able to classify credit ratings before the agencies actually publish them. As a result, it is very important for companies (especially, financial companies) to develop a proper model of credit rating. From a technical perspective, the credit rating constitutes a typical, multiclass, classification problem because rating agencies generally have ten or more categories of ratings. For example, S&P's ratings range from AAA for the highest-quality bonds to D for the lowest-quality bonds. The professional rating agencies emphasize the importance of analysts' subjective judgments in the determination of credit ratings. However, in practice, a mathematical model that uses the financial variables of companies plays an important role in determining credit ratings, since it is convenient to apply and cost efficient. These financial variables include the ratios that represent a company's leverage status, liquidity status, and profitability status. Several statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied as tools for predicting credit ratings. Among them, artificial neural networks are most prevalent in the area of finance because of their broad applicability to many business problems and their preeminent ability to adapt. However, artificial neural networks also have many defects, including the difficulty in determining the values of the control parameters and the number of processing elements in the layer as well as the risk of over-fitting. Of late, because of their robustness and high accuracy, support vector machines (SVMs) have become popular as a solution for problems with generating accurate prediction. An SVM's solution may be globally optimal because SVMs seek to minimize structural risk. On the other hand, artificial neural network models may tend to find locally optimal solutions because they seek to minimize empirical risk. In addition, no parameters need to be tuned in SVMs, barring the upper bound for non-separable cases in linear SVMs. Since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification, however they are not intrinsically geared for multiclass classifications as in credit ratings. Thus, researchers have tried to extend the original SVM to multiclass classification. Hitherto, a variety of techniques to extend standard SVMs to multiclass SVMs (MSVMs) has been proposed in the literature Only a few types of MSVM are, however, tested using prior studies that apply MSVMs to credit ratings studies. In this study, we examined six different techniques of MSVMs: (1) One-Against-One, (2) One-Against-AIL (3) DAGSVM, (4) ECOC, (5) Method of Weston and Watkins, and (6) Method of Crammer and Singer. In addition, we examined the prediction accuracy of some modified version of conventional MSVM techniques. To find the most appropriate technique of MSVMs for corporate bond rating, we applied all the techniques of MSVMs to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. The best application is in corporate bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. For our study the research data were collected from National Information and Credit Evaluation, Inc., a major bond-rating company in Korea. The data set is comprised of the bond-ratings for the year 2002 and various financial variables for 1,295 companies from the manufacturing industry in Korea. We compared the results of these techniques with one another, and with those of traditional methods for credit ratings, such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), multinomial logistic regression (MLOGIT), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). As a result, we found that DAGSVM with an ordered list was the best approach for the prediction of bond rating. In addition, we found that the modified version of ECOC approach can yield higher prediction accuracy for the cases showing clear patterns.

Relationship of earnings and credit rating before and after IFRS (IFRS 전후 이익조정과 신용평가등급의 관계)

  • An, Kyung-Su;Kim, Kwang-Yong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.99-112
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    • 2014
  • This study the impact on the real earnings management credit rating (RANK), and looked at the impact on the real earnings management grade credit rating changes (decrease, increase) the effects in detail. firm for a total of 06 years for firm that are listed on the Korea Stock Exchange from 2008 to 2013 for the hypothesis - using the proceeds of the year 2,583 sample were analyzed to study. A regression analysis of the relevance of the credit rating (RANK) and real earnings measured results between the credit rating and a measure of real earnings management ACFO and ADE (+) between AMC (-) IFRS and receive relevant ADE between(+) between AMC (-) if the credit rating (RANK) is increased ACFO and is significantly sound level at 1% showed the relevance of (+) did not significantly ADE (+) 10% of AMC if the credit rating fell ACFO is (-) from AMC show the relevance of positive credit rating is dropped capital letter showed for performing real earnings management of positive even give up the future cash flow in order to reduce the cost.

Predicting Personal Credit Rating with Incomplete Data Sets Using Frequency Matrix technique (Frequency Matrix 기법을 이용한 결측치 자료로부터의 개인신용예측)

  • Bae, Jae-Kwon;Kim, Jin-Hwa;Hwang, Kook-Jae
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.273-290
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    • 2006
  • This study suggests a frequency matrix technique to predict personal credit rate more efficiently using incomplete data sets. At first this study test on multiple discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis for predicting personal credit rate with incomplete data sets. Missing values are predicted with mean imputation method and regression imputation method here. An artificial neural network and frequency matrix technique are also tested on their performance in predicting personal credit rating. A data set of 8,234 customers in 2004 on personal credit information of Bank A are collected for the test. The performance of frequency matrix technique is compared with that of other methods. The results from the experiments show that the performance of frequency matrix technique is superior to that of all other models such as MDA-mean, Logit-mean, MDA-regression, Logit-regression, and artificial neural networks.

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Probability of default validation in a corporate credit rating model (국내모회사와 해외자회사 신용평가모형의 적합성 검증 연구)

  • Lee, Woosik;Kim, Dong-Yung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.605-615
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    • 2017
  • Recently, financial supervisory authority of Korea and international credit rating agencies have been concerned about a stand-alone rating that is calculated without incorporating guaranteed support of parent companies. Guaranteed by parent companies, most foreign subsidiaries keeps good credit rate in spite of weak financial status. However, what if the parent companies stop supporting the foreign subsidiaries, they could have a probability to go bankrupt. In this paper, we have validated a credit rating model through statistical measurers such as performance, calibration, and stability for Korean companies owning foreign subsidiaries.

Information Content of Commercial Paper Credit Rating Changes In Korea (우리나라 기업어음등급평가의 정보효과 검증)

  • 박범호;최호석
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.89-92
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the information content of commercial paper credit rating changes of Korean firms. The result shows neither sinificant daily abnormal returns nor significant cumulative daily abnormal returns over the test window. This ind icates that commercial paper rating changes are not informative to investors. A sensitivity analysis conducted for the portfolio of subsample shows a similar result. This thesis, however, may contribute to the better operation of Korean financial market by providing several directions to establish credit-based financial transactions.

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A Hybrid Credit Rating System using Rough Set Theory (러프집합을 이용한 통합형 채권등급 평가모형 구축에 관한 연구)

  • 박기남;이훈영;박상국
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.125-135
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    • 2000
  • Many different statistical and artificial intelligent techniques have been applied to improve the predictability of credit rating. Hybrid models and systems have also been developed by effectively combining different modeling processes or combining the outcomes of individual models. In this paper, we introduced the rough set theory and developed a hybrid credit rating system that combines individual outcomes in terms of rough set theory. An experiment was conducted to compare the prediction capability of the system with those of other methods. The proposed system based on rough set method outperformed the others.

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DEFAULTABLE BOND PRICING USING REGIME SWITCHING INTENSITY MODEL

  • Goutte, Stephane;Ngoupeyou, Armand
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.31 no.5_6
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    • pp.711-732
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we are interested in finding explicit numerical formulas to evaluate defaultable bonds prices of firms. For this purpose, we use a default intensity whose values depend on the credit rating of these firms. Each credit rating corresponds to a state of the default intensity. Then, this regime switches as soon as one of the credit rating of a firm also changes. Moreover, this regime switching default intensity model allows us to capture well some market features or economics behaviors. Thus, we obtain two explicit different formulas to evaluate the conditional Laplace transform of a regime switching Cox Ingersoll Ross model. One using the property of semi-affine of the model and the other one using analytic approximation. We conclude by giving some numerical illustrations of these formulas and real data estimation results.

A Study on Correlation Analysis between TCB Evaluation Indicator and Technology Rating (기술신용평가기관(TCB) 효율성 제고 및 기업기술력 강화를 위한 평가지표간 상관관계 분석연구)

  • Son, Seokhyun;Kim, Jaeyoung;Kim, Jaechun
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2017
  • In 2014, the Financial Services Commission designated the Tech Credit Bureaus(TCB) to issue technical credit evaluation reports. The Five credit rating agencies, KEB Hana Bank and others have issued the technical credit reports since the summer in 2014. Meanwhile, the technology evaluation model of KEB Hana Bank consists of 25 detailed evaluation items. These item classes are weighted and the technology rating is systematically. The technology rating is combined with the credit rating to calculate the technology-credit rating. In this paper, we analyzed the 406 evaluation results issued by KEB Hana Bank. Based on the number of years of work experience, company managerial years, technical personnel score, the possession of R&D department, the amount of R&D investment, the number of certifications, and the number of patents, the Correlation between the above items and the technical grade was analyzed. It was found that quantitative indicators such as the presence of R&D department, patent numbers, and R&D investment expenses had a significant effect on the company's technology grade, and in particular, the presence of R&D department was shown a high correlation with the technology rating.