• Title/Summary/Keyword: Credible region

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Reference-Intrinstic Analysis for the Difference between Two Normal Means

  • Jang, Eun-Jin;Kim, Dal-Ho;Lee, Kyeong-Eun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we consider a decision-theoretic oriented, objective Bayesian inference for the difference between two normal means with unknown com-mon variance. We derive the Bayesian reference criterion as well as the intrinsic estimator and the credible region which correspond to the intrinsic discrepancy loss and the reference prior. We illustrate our results using real data analysis as well as simulation study.

An Objective Bayesian Inference for the Difference between Two Normal Means

  • Jang, Eun-Jin;Kim, Dal-Ho;Lee, Kyeong-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.1365-1374
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, we consider a decision-theoretic oriented, objective Bayesian inference for the difference between two normal means with known variances. We derive the Bayesian reference criterion as well as the intrinsic estimator and the credible region which correspond to the intrinsic discrepancy loss and the reference prior. We show the similarity between derived two-sample results and the results for the one-sample case in Bernardo(1999).

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Reference-Intrinsic Analysis for the Ratio of Two Normal Variances

  • Jang, Eun-Jin;Kim, Dal-Ho;Lee, Kyeong-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.219-228
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we consider a decision-theoretic oriented, objective Bayesian inference for the ratio of two normal variances. Specifically we derive the Bayesian reference criterion as well as the intrinsic estimator and the credible region which correspond to the intrinsic discrepancy loss and the reference prior. We illustrate our results using real data analysis and simulation study.

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A Study on Area Types of Recycling Agriculture (지역별 순환농업의 유형에 관한 연구)

  • 조익환
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.91-108
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    • 2003
  • So far, we have pursued only convenient and efficient growth of economy, as a result, environment surrounding us has been destroyed and the rights of our existence gotten to be even threatened. We need to ensure our lives and at the same time, need a power with which agriculture undertakes global circulation structure and a power that is able to preserve our environment we live per so. Therefore, in the near future, the final objectives of agriculture structure for 21st century would be to increase productivity of highly developed agricultural products in accordance with the ecosystem and a recycling agriculture. What is a recycling agriculture\ulcorner In the narrow sense, it means provisions-producing- system related to interactive recycle of material among forestry, livestock husbandry and seeding agriculture. In the broad sense, it means to produce credible agricultural product by keeping balanced resources via conversion to complete degradable material of organic wastes produce within rural village. Based on this concept, finally, our goal is to construct the resources recycling community. Environment friendly agriculture ⇒ organic agriculture ⇒ recycling (circulation) agriculture ⇒ construction of community with resources recycling. Therefore, in order to construct recycling agriculture, most of all, it is considered that the following, it should be established reasonable standard amounts for fertilizer, manure and liquid fertilizer based on results of soil test by each region, nature-recycling form of crops production and livestock production systems by maximizing utilization of different recycling byproducts occurring in the crop producing process by each region.

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Uncertainty in the Estimation of Arctic Surface Temperature during Early 1900s Revealed by the Comparison between HadCRU4 and 20CR Reanalysis (HadCRU4 관측 온도자료와 20CR 재분석 자료 비교로부터 확인된 1900년대 초반 극지역 평균 온도 추정의 불확실성)

  • Kim, Baek-Min;Kim, Jin-Young
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2015
  • To discuss whether we have credible estimations about historical surface temperature evolution since industrial revolution or not, present study investigates consistencies and differences of averaged surface air temperature since 1900 between the multiple data sources: Hadley Center Climate Research Unit (HadCRU4) surface air temperature data, ECMWF 20 Century Reanalysis data (ERA20CR), and NCEP 20 Century Reanalysis data (NCEP20CR). Averaged surface temperatures are obtained for the global, polar (90S~60S, 60N~0N), midlatitude (60S~30S, 30N~60N), tropical (30S~30N) region, separately. From the analysis, we show that: 1) spatio-temporal inhomogenity and scarcity of HadCRU4 data are not major obstacles in the reliable estimation of global surface air temperature. 2) Globally averaged temperature variability is largely contributed by those of tropical and midlatitude, which occupy more than 70% of earth surface in area. 3) Both data show consistent temperature variability in tropical region. 4) ERA20CR does not capture warm period over Arctic region in early 1900s, which is obvious feature in HadCRU4 data. Discrepancies among datasets suggest that high-level caution is needed especially in the interpretation of large Arctic warming in the early 1900s, which is often regarded as a natural variability in the Arctic region.

Prediction of extreme rainfall with a generalized extreme value distribution (일반화 극단 분포를 이용한 강우량 예측)

  • Sung, Yong Kyu;Sohn, Joong K.
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.857-865
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    • 2013
  • Extreme rainfall causes heavy losses in human life and properties. Hence many works have been done to predict extreme rainfall by using extreme value distributions. In this study, we use a generalized extreme value distribution to derive the posterior predictive density with hierarchical Bayesian approach based on the data of Seoul area from 1973 to 2010. It becomes clear that the probability of the extreme rainfall is increasing for last 20 years in Seoul area and the model proposed works relatively well for both point prediction and predictive interval approach.

Establishing a pre-mining baseline of natural radionuclides distribution and radiation hazard for the Bled El-Hadba sedimentary phosphate deposits (North-Eastern Algeria)

  • S. Benarous;A. Azbouche;B. Boumehdi;S. Chegrouche;N. Atamna;R. Khelifi
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.11
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    • pp.4253-4264
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    • 2022
  • Since the implementation of the phosphate project in Bled El-Hadba (BEH) deposit, western region of Tébessa, no detailed study has been conducted to assess the natural radioactivity distribution and the associated radiological risk parameter for this open-pit mine. For the sake of determining a credible premining reference database for the region of interest, 21 samples were collected from different geological layers of the above-mentioned deposit. Gamma Spectrometry was applied for measuring radioactivity using a high resolution HPGe semiconductor detector. The obtained activity results have shown a significant broad variation in the radioactive contents for the different phosphate samples. The total average concentrations (in Bq·kg-1) for 226Ra, 238U, 235U, 232Th and 40K computed for the different type of phosphate layers were found to be 570 ± 169, 788 ± 280, 52 ± 18, 66 ± 6 and 81 ± 18 respectively. The mean activity concentrations of the measured radionuclides were compared to other regional and worldwide deposits. The ratios between the detected radioisotopes have been calculated for spatial distribution of natural radionuclides in the study area. Based on the aforementioned activity concentrations, the corresponding radiation hazard parameters were assessed. Correlations between the obtained parameters were drawn and a multivariate statistical analysis (Pearson Correlation, Cluster and Factor analysis) was carried out in order to identify the existing relationships.

A Study on the necessity and Effect of constructive minilateralism and subregionalism in Northeast Asia: Focused on Korean perspective (关于东北亚地区内 "建设性的微边主义, 小区域主义" 制度 建设的必要性和效果的研究 -以韩国的视角为中心 -)

  • Kim, Jaekwan
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.63-87
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    • 2020
  • This article not only theoretically explores the necessity and effect of constructive minilateralism and subregionalism in Northeast Asia, but also delves into a series of practical solutions from viewpoint of seeking common ground while reserving differences in this region. The main contents are as follows: First, the various obstacles that hinder the formation of regionalism, subregionalism and minilateralism in the Northeast Asia are discussed. That is to say, geopolitical realism, My Country First ideology, exclusive nationalism in the socio-historical context, and North Korea's latest provocations, etc. Second, this article explores the philosophy and basic principles of realizing Northeast Asia regionalism and minilateralism. Third, in the 21st century, Northeast Asia becomes the center of the world. It examines the core points, controversial focus and platform for building sub regionalism in the region. Finally, based on the institutional platform such as minilateralism and sub regionalism, the various ideas and practical plans of cross-border cooperation among major countries in Northeast Asia were discussed. Because there are a lot of obstacles, so first of all it is more appropriate to promote economic or functional minilateralism or sub regionalism than multilateral cooperation. In order to promote the formation of regionalism and minilateralism in Northeast Asia, the issues to be considered are as follows: First, for the sake of leading regional solidarity and minilateral economic cooperation, it is advisable for China, as a regional economic power, to implement a stable and responsible diplomacy. Secondly, regional solidarity based on credible politics and security should be promoted for a long time beyond the level of economic cooperation. Third, the primary prerequisite for the realization of Northeast Asian regionalism is that in the process of denuclearization of North Korea, the stability and peace mechanism of the Korean Peninsula should be established. Fourth, with the continued hegemonic competition between the United States and China in Northeast Asia, under the circumstance that countries in the region are pushed into so-called "East Asian Paradox", it is profoundly important for them to consider transition from the hostile relationship as the "Thucydides trap" to the order of "coexistence" in which competition and cooperation run side by side, and the two countries should explore a conversion plan for the foreign policy line. This mutual cooperation and peaceful coexistence of the US-China relationship will create a friendly atmosphere for the formation of regionalism in Northeast Asia. In the future, the cooperation of minilateralism in Northeast Asia will break the existing conflict between the maritime forces and the continental forces in order to promote peace. And along with the philosophy that "peace is economy", recent policies of common prosperity as the framework, such as China's "Belt and Road Initiative", North Korea's "Special Zone and Development Zone Policy", Russia's "New Eastern Policy", Japan's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative and South Korea's The "Korean Peninsula New Economy Map" are organically linked and it should promote the so-called "networked regionalism".

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The Methods and Its Application of Long Distance Trail Planning in a Mountainous Region (산악지역에서의 장거리 트레일 조성 계획방법 및 적용)

  • Hwang, Guk-Woong;Jang, Byoung-Kwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.55-65
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    • 2011
  • Long distance trail or trail system planning is the first important step in transforming your vision into reality. Planning presents a vision for a trail or trail system and brings a comprehensive, long-range perspective. The master plan provides solid, credible recommendations for developing a trail or trail system that is safe, convenient, well used, supported by local residents, practicality to implement, and customized to meet the needs of the community, you will need to follow a logical planning. The key elements of master planning includes site assessment, vision, goals and objectives, routing and design, implementation strategies. Trails or trail systems should provide linkages to popular destinations, safely accommodate a variety of users, and be sensitive to any negative impacts on the natural environment and wildlife. Trails planners also need to think about how the trail, or trail system will function in the future as areas are developed or trail population increases. All of these factors during the planning process will ensure the existence of high-quality facilities for years to come. Project for Nakdong-jungmaek trail planning combine long distance trail with circuit way. That project is a planning brought out the best in each of Tokai natural way and Cotswold way. That is planning which is combined a wooded trail in Tokai natural way with access and facilities improving economy in Cotswold way. Also That planning embraces a core cultural center which is concerned forest or wood to come more people.

Evaluation of Piezocone Factors for Soft Ground in the Region of Nakdong River Estuary Using Statistical Analysis (통계적 기법에 의한 낙동강하구 점성토 지반의 피에조콘 계수 산정)

  • Kim, Younghun;Jang, Jungho;Choi, Dongchan;Chun, Byungsik
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.10 no.7
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    • pp.53-66
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    • 2009
  • Recently, the importance of investigation for soft ground has been raised, so that various techniques of the investigation for soft ground are being introduced and applied. In particular, Piezocone penetration test has been utilized frequently home and abroad to identify many features of grounds precisely and gain various results in accordance with dividing strata and depth constantly by measuring continuously. In this study, to identify some features of soft clays distributed in the estuary of Nakdong river, researchers conducted field tests and laboratory tests with boring tests, and analyzed and compared with Piezocone penetration test. In addition, credible Piezocone factor of communities of subjects for this study was estimated to analyze some features of undrained shear strength of clay and calculate Piezocone factor compared with corrected cone resistance and apply some statistical techniques to estimated Piezocone factor.

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