• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cox proportional Hazard model

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Postoperative Radiotherapy Improves Survival in Gastric Signet-Ring Cell Carcinoma: a SEER Database Analysis

  • Wei, Feng;Lyu, Hongwei;Wang, Shuoer;Chu, Yan;Chen, Fengyuan
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.393-407
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: To identify the potential therapeutic role of postoperative radiotherapy (RT) in patients with locally advanced (stage II and stage III) gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (SRC). Materials and methods: Patients with locally advanced gastric SRC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program database between 2004 and 2012 were included in our study. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional models were performed, and survival curves were generated to evaluate the prognostic effect of postoperative RT and surgery alone on SRC patients. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to avoid selection bias among the study cohorts. Results: We found that patients with postoperative RT had better probability of survival compared with those who did not receive RT (overall survival [OS], P<0.001; cancer-specific survival [CSS], P<0.001). After PSM, analysis of both overall and CSS showed that patients who underwent postoperative RT had better prognosis than those receiving surgery alone in the matched cohort (OS, P=0.00079; CSS, P=0.0036). Multivariate Cox proportional model indicated that postoperative RT had better effect on prognosis compared with surgery alone with respect to both overall (hazard ratio [HR], 0.716; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.590-0.87; P=0.001) and CSS (HR, 0.713; 95% CI, 0.570-0.890; P=0.003). Conclusions: Postoperative RT had better prognosis compared with surgery alone for both overall and CSS for patients with locally advanced gastric SRC.

Impact of beta blockers on survival outcomes in ovarian cancer: a nationwide population-based cohort study

  • Baek, Min-Hyun;Kim, Dae-Yeon;Kim, Seon Ok;Kim, Ye-Jee;Park, Young-Han
    • Journal of Gynecologic Oncology
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.82.1-82.13
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    • 2018
  • Objective: The impact of beta blockers (BBs) on survival outcomes in ovarian cancer was investigated. Methods: By using Korean National Health Insurance Service Data, Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to analyze hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) adjusting for confounding factors. Results: Among 866 eligible patients, 206 (23.8%) were BB users and 660 (76.2%) were non-users. Among the 206 BB users, 151 (73.3%) were non-selective beta blocker (NSBB) users and 105 (51.0%) were selective beta blocker (SBB) users. BB use in patients aged ${\geq}60$ years, longer duration use (${\geq}1$ year), in patients with Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) ${\geq}3$, and in cardiovascular disease including hypertension was associated with better survival outcome. These findings were observed in both NSBB and SBB. When duration of medication was analyzed based on number of days, NSBB (${\geq}180$ days) was associated with improved overall survival (OS) with a relatively shorter period of use compared to SBB (${\geq}720$ days). In multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, longer duration of BB medication (${\geq}1$ year) was an independent favorable prognostic factor for both OS and disease-specific survival in ovarian cancer patients. Conclusion: In our nationwide population-based cohort study, BB use was associated with better survival outcomes in ovarian cancer in cases of long term duration of use, in older patients, and in cardiovascular and/or other underlying disease (CCI ${\geq}3$).

A Systematic Analysis on Default Risk Based on Delinquency Probability

  • Kim, Gyoung Sun;Shin, Seung Woo
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.21-35
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    • 2018
  • The recent performance of residential mortgages demonstrated how default risk operated separately from prepayment risk. In this study, we investigated the determinants of the borrowers' decisions pertaining to early termination through default from the mortgage performance data released by Freddie Mac, involving securitized mortgage loans from January 2011 to September 2013. We estimated a Cox-type, proportional hazard model with a single risk on fundamental factors associated with default options for individual mortgages. We proposed a mortgage default model that included two specifications of delinquency: one using a delinquency binary variable, while the other using a delinquency probability. We also compared the results obtained from two specifications with respect to goodness-of-fit proposed in the spirit of Vuong (1989) in both overlapping and nested models' cases. We found that a model with our proposed delinquency probability variable showed a statistically significant advantage compared to a benchmark model with delinquency dummy variables. We performed a default prediction power test based on the method proposed in Shumway (2001), and found a much stronger performance from the proposed model.

Prediction of Tumor Progression During Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Survival Outcome in Patients With Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

  • Heera Yoen;Soo-Yeon Kim;Dae-Won Lee;Han-Byoel Lee;Nariya Cho
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.24 no.7
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    • pp.626-639
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    • 2023
  • Objective: To investigate the association of clinical, pathologic, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) variables with progressive disease (PD) during neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) in patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Materials and Methods: This single-center retrospective study included 252 women with TNBC who underwent NAC between 2010 and 2019. Clinical, pathologic, and treatment data were collected. Two radiologists analyzed the pre-NAC MRI. After random allocation to the development and validation sets in a 2:1 ratio, we developed models to predict PD and DMFS using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard regression, respectively, and validated them. Results: Among the 252 patients (age, 48.3 ± 10.7 years; 168 in the development set; 84 in the validation set), PD was occurred in 17 patients and 9 patients in the development and validation sets, respectively. In the clinical-pathologic-MRI model, the metaplastic histology (odds ratio [OR], 8.0; P = 0.032), Ki-67 index (OR, 1.02; P = 0.044), and subcutaneous edema (OR, 30.6; P = 0.004) were independently associated with PD in the development set. The clinical-pathologic-MRI model showed a higher area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) than the clinical-pathologic model (AUC: 0.69 vs. 0.54; P = 0.017) for predicting PD in the validation set. Distant metastases occurred in 49 patients and 18 patients in the development and validation sets, respectively. Residual disease in both the breast and lymph nodes (hazard ratio [HR], 6.0; P = 0.005) and the presence of lymphovascular invasion (HR, 3.3; P < 0.001) were independently associated with DMFS. The model consisting of these pathologic variables showed a Harrell's C-index of 0.86 in the validation set. Conclusion: The clinical-pathologic-MRI model, which considered subcutaneous edema observed using MRI, performed better than the clinical-pathologic model for predicting PD. However, MRI did not independently contribute to the prediction of DMFS.

Cohort Study on the Association between Alcohol Consumption and the Risk of Colorectal Cancer in the Korean Elderly (노인인구에서 음주와 대장직장암 발생간의 연관성에 관한 코호트연구)

  • Lim, Hoi-Jeong;Park, Byung-Joo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.23-29
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    • 2008
  • Objectives : We examined the association between alcohol consumption and incidence of colorectal cancer in elderly Koreans. Methods : The cohort members (n=14,304) consisted of 4,834 males and 9,470 females derived from the Korea Elderly Pharmacoepidemiologic Cohort (KEPEC), a population-based dynamic cohort. They were aged 65 years old or older and lived in Busan between 1993-1998; they were beneficiaries of the Korean Medical Insurance Corporation (KMIC). Baseline information was surveyed by a self-administered, mailed questionnaire. This study population was restricted to 14,304 participants who reported alcohol drinking habits on the questionnaire and had not been diagnosed with colorectal cancer at baseline. The adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) of status, type, frequency and daily average amount of alcohol consumption were computed with Cox's proportional hazard model, with the never-drinkers as a reference group and controlling for age and gender. Results : After 4.82 person-years of mean follow-up 112 cases of colorectal cancer occurred. The incidence densities of colorectal cancer were 161 (95% CI=123-200) for never-drinkers, 219 (95% CI=125-339) for ex-drinkers, and 137 (95% CI=84-189) for current-drinkers per 100,000 person-year. The status, type, frequency, and daily average amount of alcohol consumption were not significantly related to the incidence of colorectal cancer after controlling for age and gender. Conclusions : There was no significant association between alcohol consumption and colorectal cancer among elderly people after controlling for age and gender.

Crash Clearance Time Analysis of Korean Freeway Systems using a Cox Model (Cox 모형을 활용한 고속도로 사고 처리시간 영향인자 분석)

  • Chung, Younshik;Kim, Seon Jung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.1017-1023
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    • 2017
  • Duration induced by freeway crashes has a critical influence on traffic congestion. In general, crash duration composes detection and verification, response, and clearance time. Of these, the crash clearance time determined by a crash clearance team has attracted considerable attention in the freeway congestion management since the interest of the first two time stages faded away with increasing ubiquitous mobile phone users. The objective of this study is to identify the critical factors that affect freeway crash clearance time using a Cox's proportional hazard model. In total, 6,870 crash duration data collected from 30 major Korean freeways in 2013 were used. As a result, it was found that crashes during the night, with trailer or larger size truck, and in tunnel section contribute to increasing clearance time. Crashes associated with fatality, completed damage of crashed vehicle (s), and vehicles' fire or rollover after crash also lead to increasing clearance time. Additionally, an increase in the number of vehicles involved resulted in longer clearance time. On the other hand, crashes in the vicinity of tollgate, by passenger car, during spring, on flat section, and of car-facility type had longer clearance time. On the basis of the results, this paper suggested some strategic plans and mitigation measures to reduce crash clearance time on Korean freeway systems.

The Influence of Loyalty Program on the Effect of Customer Retention: Focused on Education Service Industry (고객보상 프로그램이 고객 유지에 미치는 효과: 교육 서비스 산업을 중심으로)

  • Jeon, Hoseong
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.25-53
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    • 2011
  • This study probes the effect of loyalty program on the customer retention based on the real transaction data(n=2,892) acquired from education service industry. We try to figure out the outcomes of reward program through more than 1 year-long data gathered and analyzed according to quasi-experimental design(i.e., before and after design). We adopt this kinds of research scheme in regard that previous studies measured the effect of loyalty program by dividing the customers into two group(i.e., members vs. non-members) after the firms or stores had started the program. We believe that it might not avoid the self-selection bias. The research questions of this study could be explained such as: First, most research said that the loyalty programs could increase the customer loyalty and contribute to the sustainable growth of company. But there are little confirmation that this promotional tool could be justified in terms of financial perspective. Thus, we are interested in both the retention rate and financial outcomes caused by the introduction of loyalty programs. Second, reward programs target mainly current customer. Especially CRM(customer relationship management) said that it is more profitable for company to build positive relationship with current customer instead of pursuing new customer. And it claims that reward program is excellent means to achieve this goal. For this purpose, we check in this study whether there is a interaction effect between loyalty program and customer type in retaining customer. Third, it is said that dis-satisfied customers are more likely to leave the company than satisfied customers. While, Bolton, Kannan and Bramlett(2000) claimed that reward program could contribute to minimize the effect of negative service by building emotional link with customer, it is not empirically confirmed. This point of view explained that the loyalty programs might work as exit barrier to current customer. Thus, this study tries to identify whether there is a interaction effect between loyalty program and service experience in keeping customer. To achieve this purpose, this study adopt both Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard model. The research outcomes show that the average retention period is 179 days before introducing loyalty program but it is increased to 227 days after reward is given to the customers. Since this difference is statistically significant, it could be said that H1 is supported. In addition, the contribution margin coming from increased transaction period is bigger than the cost for administering loyalty programs. To address other research questions, we probe the interaction effect between loyalty program and other factors(i.e., customer type and service experience) affecting it. The analysis of Cox proportional hazard model said that the current customer is more likely to engage in building relationship with company compared to new customer. In addition, retention rate of satisfied customer is significantly increased in relation to dis-satisfied customer. Interestingly, the transaction period of dis-satisfied customer is notably increased after introducing loyalty programs. Thus, it could be said that H2, H3, and H4 are also supported. In summary, we found that the loyalty programs have values as a promotional tool in forming positive relationship with customer and building exit barrier.

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Analysis of Survivability for Combatants during Offensive Operations at the Tactical Level (전술제대 공격작전간 전투원 생존성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jaeoh;Cho, HyungJun;Kim, GakGyu
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.921-932
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    • 2015
  • This study analyzed military personnel survivability in regards to offensive operations according to the scientific military training data of a reinforced infantry battalion. Scientific battle training was conducted at the Korea Combat Training Center (KCTC) training facility and utilized scientific military training equipment that included MILES and the main exercise control system. The training audience freely engaged an OPFOR who is an expert at tactics and weapon systems. It provides a statistical analysis of data in regards to state-of-the-art military training because the scientific battle training system saves and utilizes all training zone data for analysis and after action review as well as offers training control during the training period. The methodologies used the Cox PH modeling (which does not require parametric distribution assumptions) and decision tree modeling for survival data such as CART, GUIDE, and CTREE for richer and easier interpretation. The variables that violate the PH assumption were stratified and analyzed. Since the Cox PH model result was not easy to interpret the period of service, additional interpretation was attempted through univariate local regression. CART, GUIDE, and CTREE formed different tree models which allow for various interpretations.

Relationship between Early Postoperative Renal Scintigraphy and Long-term Transplant Survival (신 이식 직후 신장 스캔 소견과 이식신 장기 생존의 관계)

  • So, Young;Lee, Kang-Wook;Shin, Young-Tai;Ahn, Moon-Sang;Bae, Jin-Sun;Sul, Chong-Koo;Jung, In-Mok
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.251-257
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    • 2001
  • Purpose: We investigated the possibility of early postoperative Tc-99m DTPA scintigraphy in predicting long-term renal transplant survival. Materials and Methods: 64 living donor (LD) grafts were divided into two groups according to the graft function on early post-operative renal scintigraphy. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard model. Chi-square test was performed to evaluate the difference in the frequency of acute rejection. Results: Cumulative renal transplant survival was decreased in 11 patients with abnormal renal scintigraphy, but it was not statistically significant. Decreased graft function on early post-operative renal scintigraphy was not a predictor of long-term graft survival. The frequency of acute rejection was higher in abnormal scintigraphy group, and the difference was statistically significant. Conclusion: Decreased graft function on early post-operative renal scintigraphy has no direct effect on long-term renal transplant survival in LD transplantation. But it may have an indirect elect through increasing the frequency of acute rejection.

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Risk Factor for Recurrence in Completely Resected Stage IB Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (완전 절제된 IB기 비소세포폐암에서 수술 후 재발의 위험 인자)

  • Seok, Yang-Ki;Lee, Eung-Bae
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.40 no.10
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    • pp.680-684
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    • 2007
  • Background: Complete surgical resection is the most effective treatment for stage IB non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Recurrence accounts for the disappointing survival rates after resection. There has been renewed interest in adjuvant therapy after complete resection. Appropriate selection of effective adjuvant therapy will depend on the prognostic factors for recurrence. Material and Method: The study included 114 patients with completely resected stage IB NSCLC. The variables selected for the study were gender, age, the type of resection, cell type, the degree of differentiation, the tumor size and the presence of visceral pleura invasion. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the survival and disease-free survival rate. The results were compared using the log rank test. Multivariate analysis was performed by Cox's proportional hazard model. Two-sided p-valves < 0.05 were considered to be statistically significant. Result: The 3-year overall survival and the disease-free survival rates were 87.0% and 79.4%, respectively. The degree of differentiation showed a significant influence on disease-free survival according to the univariate analysis. According to the multivariate analysis, a poor grade of differentiation was a significant poor prognostic factor. Conclusion: These results demonstrate that poor differentiation may be a poor prognostic factor for patients with completely resected IB NSCLC. Therefore, the patients with a poor grade of differentiation may require adjuvant therapies.