The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics (응용통계연구)

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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Analysis of Survivability for Combatants during Offensive Operations at the Tactical Level

전술제대 공격작전간 전투원 생존성에 관한 연구

  • Kim, Jaeoh (Department of Statistics, Korea University) ;
  • Cho, HyungJun (Department of Statistics, Korea University) ;
  • Kim, GakGyu (Center for Army Analysis and Simulation, ROK Army)
  • Received : 2015.06.29
  • Accepted : 2015.08.10
  • Published : 2015.10.31
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Abstract

This study analyzed military personnel survivability in regards to offensive operations according to the scientific military training data of a reinforced infantry battalion. Scientific battle training was conducted at the Korea Combat Training Center (KCTC) training facility and utilized scientific military training equipment that included MILES and the main exercise control system. The training audience freely engaged an OPFOR who is an expert at tactics and weapon systems. It provides a statistical analysis of data in regards to state-of-the-art military training because the scientific battle training system saves and utilizes all training zone data for analysis and after action review as well as offers training control during the training period. The methodologies used the Cox PH modeling (which does not require parametric distribution assumptions) and decision tree modeling for survival data such as CART, GUIDE, and CTREE for richer and easier interpretation. The variables that violate the PH assumption were stratified and analyzed. Since the Cox PH model result was not easy to interpret the period of service, additional interpretation was attempted through univariate local regression. CART, GUIDE, and CTREE formed different tree models which allow for various interpretations.

본 연구에서는 증강된 보병대대의 과학화 전투훈련 데이터 중 공격작전에 관한 장병들의 생존분석을 실시하였다. 과학화 전투훈련은 KCTC(Korea Combat Training Center)로 불리는 전투훈련장에서 MILES(Multiple Integrated Lazer Engagement System)와 중앙통제장비체계 등 과학화된 훈련장비와 체계 운용하 훈련부대가 적 전술 및 무기체계를 사용하는 전문 대항군과 실시하는 쌍방 자유기동훈련이다. 이는 훈련기간 동안 훈련지역의 모든 데이터가 저장되어 훈련통제 뿐 아니라 분석 및 사후검토를 할 수 있는 첨단화된 군사 훈련으로 통계적 분석이 가능한 데이터를 제공한다. 분석방법은 모수적 분포 가정이 필요하지 않은 Cox의 비례위험모형을 적용하였으며, 보다 풍부하고 용이한 해석을 위해 의사결정나무모형(CART(Classification and Regression Trees), GUIDE(Generalized, Unbiased, Interaction Detection and Estimation), CTREE(Conditional Inference Trees))을 활용하였다. Cox 비례위험모형의 비례성 가정을 확인하여 이를 위배하는 변수에 대해서 층화하여 분석하고, Cox 비례위험모형 결과 복무기간에 관한 해석이 용이하지 않아 단변량으로 local 회귀분석을 통해 추가적인 해석을 시도하였다. CART, GUIDE, CTREE는 모형의 특성별로 나무모형을 형성하며 이를 통하여 다양한 해석이 가능하다.

Keywords

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