• Title/Summary/Keyword: Country Risk Model

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Comparison of Bayesian Spatial Ecological Regression Models for Investigating the Incidence of Breast Cancer in Iran, 2005- 2008

  • Khoshkar, Ahmad Haddad;Koshki, Tohid Jafari;Mahaki, Behzad
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.14
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    • pp.5669-5673
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    • 2015
  • Background: Breast cancer is the most prevalent kind of cancer among women in Iran. Regarding the importance of cancer prevention and considerable variation of breast cancer incidence in different parts of the country, it is necessary to recognize regions with high incidence of breast cancer and evaluate the role of potential risk factors by use of advanced statistical models. The present study focussed on incidence of breast cancer in Iran at the province level and also explored the impact of some prominent covariates using Bayesian models. Materials and Methods: All patients diagnosed with breast cancer in Iran from 2005 to 2008 were included in the study. Smoking, fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity, obesity and the Human Development Index (HDI), measured at the province level, were considered as potential modulating factors. Gamma-Poisson, log normal and BYM models were used to estimate the relative risk of breast cancer in this ecological investigation with and without adjustment for the covariates. Results: The unadjusted BYM model had the best fit among applied models. Without adjustment, Isfahan, Yazd, and Tehran had the highest incidences and Sistan- Baluchestan and Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari had the lowest. With the adjusted model, Khorasan-Razavi, Lorestan and Hamedan had the highest and Ardebil and Kohgiluyeh-Boyerahmad the lowest incidences. A significantly direct association was found between breast cancer incidence and HDI. Conclusions: BYM model has better fit, because it contains parameters that allow including effects from neighbors. Since HDI is a significant variable, it is also recommended that HDI should be considered in future investigations. This study showed that Yazd, Isfahan and Tehran provinces feature the highest crude incidences of breast cancer.

Which country's end devices are most sharing vulnerabilities in East Asia? (거시적인 관점에서 바라본 취약점 공유 정도를 측정하는 방법에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Kwangwon;Won, Yoon Ji
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.1281-1291
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    • 2015
  • Compared to the past, people can control end devices via open channel. Although this open channel provides convenience to users, it frequently turns into a security hole. In this paper, we propose a new human-centered security risk analysis method that puts weight on the relationship between end devices. The measure derives from the concept of entropy rate, which is known as the uncertainty per a node in a network. As there are some limitations to use entropy rate as a measure in comparing different size of networks, we divide the entropy rate of a network by the maximum entropy rate of the network. Also, we show how to avoid the violation of irreducible, which is a precondition of the entropy rate of a random walk on a graph.

Location Efficiencies of Host Countries for Strategic Offshoring Decisions Amid Wealth Creation Opportunities and Supply Chain Risks

  • Ma, Jin-Hee;Ahn, Young-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.21-47
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - Offshoring has emerged as one of the major trends in international trade and has become one of the strategies for achieving competitiveness in the global market. In spite of this, the expected gains of offshoring can be offset by hidden costs and risks, such as those associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, the trade war between the USA and China, and the ongoing trade dispute between Korea and Japan. To obviate such business failure and prevent critical business blunders, offshoring strategies that efficiently consider both risk elements and potential wealth creation are urgently need. The first purpose of this study is to contribute to the development of more advanced offshoring strategies to help host countries select the best locations to manage supply chain risks and create unique value. The second purpose is to specifically analyze the current status of Korea and provide Korean companies with implications to be considered when deciding whether to offshore or re-shore. Design/methodology - A Network DEA model was applied to measure the comparative location efficiency of national competencies for offshoring strategy from perspectives of wealth creation opportunities (profitability and marketability) and supply chain risk management. The location efficiencies are compared among a total 70 countries selected from the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) and globally attractive locations outlined by Kearney (2017). For the secondary analysis of efficiency, a t-test examining the nature of competitive advantage and the level of sophistication in production processes was implemented in three divisions. We then analyzed differences in offshoring performance in terms of the identified national traits. Moreover, Tobit regression analysis is conducted to investigate the correlation between value-added business activities and each divisional efficiency, seeking to determine how each degree of value-added business activity influences the increase in offshoring productivity. Findings - Regarding overall location efficiency for offshoring performance, only the USA and Italy were identified as being efficient as host countries for offshoring, under circumstances of advanced development, such as productivity and risk management. Korea ranks 13th among 70 countries. The determinants of national competitiveness depend on national traits (the nature of competitive advantage and business sophistication). Countries with labor/resource advantages and labor-intensive industries are more competitive in terms of marketability than others. In contrast, countries with strong technology-intensive industries benefit offshoring companies, particularly in the technology sector, with the added advantage of supply chain risk management. As the perception of a value chain is broader in a country, it can achieve both production sophistication and competitive advantages such as marketability and SCRM. Originality/value - Existing studies focus on offshoring effectiveness from a company perspective. This paper contributes to comparing country efficiency in producing core competencies related to an offshoring strategy and also segments countries into three performance-based considerations associated with the global offshoring market. It also details Korea's position as an offshoring location according to national efficiency and competency.

HPV Infection and Cervical Abnormalities in HIV Positive Women in Different Regions of Brazil, a Middle-Income Country

  • Freitas, Beatriz C;Suehiro, Tamy T;Consolaro, Marcia EL;Silva, Vania RS
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.18
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    • pp.8085-8091
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    • 2016
  • Human papillomavirus is a virus that is distributed worldwide, and persistent infection with high-risk genotypes (HR-HPV) is considered the most important factor for the development of squamous cell cervical carcinoma (SCC). However, by itself, it is not sufficient, and other factors may contribute to the onset and progression of lesions. For example, infection with other sexually transmitted diseases such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) may be a factor. Previous studies have shown the relationship between HPV infection and SCC development among HIV-infected women in many regions of the world, with great emphasis on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Brazil is considered a LMIC and has great disparities across different regions. The purpose of this review was to highlight the current knowledge about HPV infection and cervical abnormalities in HIV+ women in Brazil because this country is an ideal setting to evaluate HIV impact on SCC development and serves as model of LMICs and low-resource settings.

Association Between p53 codon 72 Polymorphism and Cervical Cancer Risk Among Asians: a Huge Review and Meta-analysis

  • Zhou, Xin;Gu, Yang;Zhang, Shu-Lan
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.10
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    • pp.4909-4914
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    • 2012
  • Objective: The aim of this Human Genome Epidemiology (HuGE) review and meta-analysis was to derive a more precise estimation of the association between p53 codon 72 polymorphism (Arg72Pro, rs1042522 G>C) and cervical cancer risk among Asians. Methods: A literature search of Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science and CBM databases from inception through June 2012 was conducted. The meta-analysis was performed using STATA 12.0 software. Crude odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to assess the strength of any association. Twenty-eight case-control studies were included with a total of 3,580 cervical cancer cases and 3,827 healthy controls. When all the eligible studies were pooled into the meta-analysis, the results showed that the Pro/Pro genotype was associated with increased risk of cervical cancer under the heterozygous model (Pro/Pro vs. Arg/Pro: OR = 1.25, 95%CI: 1.02-1.53, P= 0.005). However, no statistically significant associations were found under four other genetic models (Pro vs. Arg: OR = 0.97, 95%CI: 0.85-1.10, P= 0.624; Pro/Pro + Arg/Pro vs. Arg/Arg: OR = 0.84, 95%CI: 0.70-1.01, P= 0.058; Pro/Pro vs. Arg/Arg + Arg/Pro: OR = 1.13, 95%CI: 0.92-1.39, P= 0.242; Pro/Pro vs. Arg/Arg: OR = 0.97, 95%CI: 0.76-1.22, P= 0.765; respectively). In the subgroup analysis based on country, the Pro/Pro genotype and Pro carrier showed significant associations with increased risk of cervical cancer among Indian populations, but not among Chinese, Japanese and Korean populations. Conclusion: Results from the current meta-analysis suggests that p53 codon 72 polymorphism might be associated with increased risk of cervical cancer, especially among Indians.

Study on the Development of Social Evaluation Model for Aids to Navigation Accident (항로표지사고의 사회적비용 평가모델 개발에 관한 연구(I))

  • Moon, Beom-Sik;Gug, Seung-Gi;Lee, Young-Tae
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.187-194
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    • 2018
  • Aids to Navigation (AtoN) is a marine traffic safety facility used to facilitate the safe and efficient movement of shipping and enhance the protection of the marine environment by the regulations or guidelines of The International Association of Marine Aids to Navigation and Lighthouse Authorities (IALA). Our country is managing AtoN to provide consistent services for AtoN users, although an average of 141 AtoN accidents occur annually. An AtoN accident forces non-planned work on the managers to resort the function, and causes psychological anxiety for its users, ultimately resulting in economic losses. This study developed the Social Cost evaluation model of AtoN accidents. The model can be used to quantify the manager's economic activities related to the shutdown and recovery, as well as the cost associated with the inconvenience to AtoN users. The Social Cost evaluation model of AtoN accidents is proposed as the sum of the encounter cost, administration cost and risk cost.

Development of the forecasting model for import volume by item of major countries based on economic, industrial structural and cultural factors: Focusing on the cultural factors of Korea (경제적, 산업구조적, 문화적 요인을 기반으로 한 주요 국가의 한국 품목별 수입액 예측 모형 개발: 한국의, 한국에 대한 문화적 요인을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.23-48
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    • 2021
  • The Korean economy has achieved continuous economic growth for the past several decades thanks to the government's export strategy policy. This increase in exports is playing a leading role in driving Korea's economic growth by improving economic efficiency, creating jobs, and promoting technology development. Traditionally, the main factors affecting Korea's exports can be found from two perspectives: economic factors and industrial structural factors. First, economic factors are related to exchange rates and global economic fluctuations. The impact of the exchange rate on Korea's exports depends on the exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility. Global economic fluctuations affect global import demand, which is an absolute factor influencing Korea's exports. Second, industrial structural factors are unique characteristics that occur depending on industries or products, such as slow international division of labor, increased domestic substitution of certain imported goods by China, and changes in overseas production patterns of major export industries. Looking at the most recent studies related to global exchanges, several literatures show the importance of cultural aspects as well as economic and industrial structural factors. Therefore, this study attempted to develop a forecasting model by considering cultural factors along with economic and industrial structural factors in calculating the import volume of each country from Korea. In particular, this study approaches the influence of cultural factors on imports of Korean products from the perspective of PUSH-PULL framework. The PUSH dimension is a perspective that Korea develops and actively promotes its own brand and can be defined as the degree of interest in each country for Korean brands represented by K-POP, K-FOOD, and K-CULTURE. In addition, the PULL dimension is a perspective centered on the cultural and psychological characteristics of the people of each country. This can be defined as how much they are inclined to accept Korean Flow as each country's cultural code represented by the country's governance system, masculinity, risk avoidance, and short-term/long-term orientation. The unique feature of this study is that the proposed final prediction model can be selected based on Design Principles. The design principles we presented are as follows. 1) A model was developed to reflect interest in Korea and cultural characteristics through newly added data sources. 2) It was designed in a practical and convenient way so that the forecast value can be immediately recalled by inputting changes in economic factors, item code and country code. 3) In order to derive theoretically meaningful results, an algorithm was selected that can interpret the relationship between the input and the target variable. This study can suggest meaningful implications from the technical, economic and policy aspects, and is expected to make a meaningful contribution to the export support strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises by using the import forecasting model.

The Development of the Optimization Cutting Model for the H-Beam Steel (H형(形) 강(鋼) 제품(製品)의 절단(切斷) 모델 최적화(最適化)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Nam, Ho-Ki;Park, Sang-Min;Joh, Jong-Nam;Kim, Jhong-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.213-223
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    • 2011
  • Recent cross-country competition and Chinese steel industry because of the emerging steel industry in Korea is a very difficult situation. Therefore, the steel industry in order to overcome this difficult market environment, the quality, cost competitiveness, enhance customer service levels and enhance international competitiveness through is needed. In this study, the purpose of strengthening the competitiveness of steel companies in order and hit the recovery of raw materials have been developed to optimize the model, developed before and after the results were analyzed. In addition, when applied to other products in order to minimize risk and optimize cutting trial stage of development details of the model is presented in detail. Therefore, the developed model was applied to order the recovery of raw materials hits and significantly improved production planning time has been shortened dramatically. In the present study the contents of other products when properly applied and the competitiveness of companies to improve customer service levels are expected to be helpful.

A Basic Study on Quantification Model Development of Human Accidents based on the Insurance Claim Payout of Construction Site (건설공사보험 사례를 활용한 건설현장 인명사고 정량화 모델 개발 기초연구)

  • Ha, Sun-Geun;Kim, Tae-Hui;Kim, Ji-Myong;Jang, Jun-Ho;Son, Ki-Young
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2017.11a
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    • pp.195-196
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    • 2017
  • The number of human accidents in the construction industry is increasing every year, and it constitute the highest percentage among industry. This means that activities performed to prevent safety accidents in the country are not efficient to reduce the rate of accidents in the construction industry. In order to solve this issue, research has been conducted from various perspectives. But, research regarding to quantification model of human accidents is insufficient. the objective of this study is to conduct a basic study on quantification model development of human accidents. To achieve the objective, first, Cause of accident is defined the through literature review. Second, a basic statistic analysis is conducted to determine the characteristics of the accident causes. Third, the analysis is conducted after dividing into four categories : accumulate rate, season, total construction cost, and location. In the future, this study can be used as a reference for developing the safety management checklist for safety management in construction site and development of prediction models of human accident.

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Social Business in An Emerging Economy: An Empirical Study in Bangladesh

  • CHOWDHURY, Fatema Nusrat;MUSTAFA, Jasia;ISLAM, K.M. Anwarul;HASAN, K.B.M. Rajibul;ZAYED, Nurul Mohammad;RAISA, Tahsin Sharmila
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.931-941
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    • 2021
  • The study focuses on the relationship between SB, corporate social responsibility (CSR), and the emerging economy. Thereafter it highlights the types, principles, and funding cycle of SB with the evidence from Grameen Bank, which is a globally well-recognized microfinance venture in Bangladesh established by the Nobel Laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus. This study employs qualitative analysis to illustrate an architectural overview of the SB model by collecting secondary data from various publications related to the topic and published data of Grameen Bank. Finally, this paper illustrates the SB model along with specified characteristics, systematic framework, and main approaches for sustainable context, which could be applied as a conceptual framework for SB in any context of the emerging economy. The findings of this study suggest that the SB model is the workflow having a hierarchy of five phases namely need identification, goal setting, solution-based business plan, business plan assessment, and business plan execution. Analyzing a range of social business interventions in a developing country, Bangladesh, through the lens of five key aspects demonstrates that social business is the most efficient way to sustainably maximize the social benefits and minimize specific social issues poverty of the people affected.