• Korean Journal of Forensic Psychology
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.63-87
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• 2020

Judgment and decision-making studies have shown that people are easily influenced and biased by information irrelevant to the object of judgment. There is a great deal of research that indicates that bias exists in the legal judgment scene. One of them is a bias induced by defendants' character evidence. This study examined whether cognitive activities such as discussion, counterfactual thinking, and peer assessment could reduce the bias induced by the character evidece. In Experiment 1, 121 college students were asked to give the percentage they believed the defendant to be guilty. There was no cognitive activity for the control group. There were three different cognitive activities for the experimental group: discussion, counterfactual thinking and discussion, and counterfactual thinking and peer assessment. Results showed reduction in bias for all the experimental groups, and there was no difference between them. In Experiment 2, there were 125 participants from general population for the same procedure as in Experiment 1. Results showed reduction in bias only for the counterfactual thinking and discussion group. In general discussion, we speculated the implication of the results and the reason for the difference between the two experiments.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.41-60
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• 2022

Purpose - The policy implications of free trade agreements have traditionally been a matter of debate among economists. The official signing of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement provides economists with a quasi-natural experiment to analyze the FTA's policy effects. This article aims to more accurately understand the impact of Korea's FTA accession on the macro economy. Design/methodology - This study adopts the counterfactual method based on panel data to find common factors in the generation process of macro data to fit the counterfactual path, to accurately evaluate the effect of the macro policy. Findings - Our research results show that the signing of the Korea-China FTA has a relatively significant short-term positive effect on Korea's economic growth. On average, Korea's real GDP growth rate has increased by 2.1%. This study finds evidence in support of FTA signing not having a significant impact on Korea's GDP growth in the long run. Additionally, we evaluated the impact of the FTA on Korea's imports and exports and found that it had a significant positive impact in the short term, but the trade effect of the FTA is significantly affected by the external macro-environment. Originality/value - First, this study uses macro panel data at the national level to examine the impact of the Korea-China FTA on Korea, and more accurately describes the policy effect of the FTA. Second, our empirical results show that the Korea-China FTA policy impact is subject to occasional changes in the external environment, such as the geopolitical conflict (crisis) between Korea and China, and the US-China trade war. Finally, the analysis shows that the short-term effect of FTA is significant but the long-term is uncertain, which provides empirical evidence for the debate on whether joining FTA can promote national economic growth.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.71-102
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• 2014

This paper examines the possibility of 'parallel reimportation', the reimportation of goods originally produced in the country and exported to another country by profit-pursuing arbitrageurs. The chance of parallel reimportation implies unusually high level of market power of domestic enterprises, and promoting parallel reimportation can be an effective welfare-enhancing, competition-generating policy for the situation. Motivated by the finding, this paper proposes a methodology to measure the welfare effects of parallel reimportation. Specifically, this paper makes use of a structural empirical model to estimate the demand and supply system of Korean automobile market for performing a counterfactual experiment to measure the welfare effects of the parallel reimportation. The results indicates that parallel reimportation can enhance social welfare considerably by increasing consumer surplus and government tax revenue altogether, though it reduces the producer surplus.

• Korean Journal of Logic
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.115-131
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• 2002

The problem of disjunctive causal factors is generalized as follows. Suppose that there are no factors of the kind considered so far that need to be held fixed in background contexts. Nevertheless, it is still possible that within the background contexts, each disjunct of a disjunctive causal factor X v W confers a different probability on an effect factor in Question. So a problem arises of how we identify a single causally significant probability of the effect factor in the presence of the disjunctive causal factor, assuming that each disjunct of the disjunctive causal factor confers a different probability on the effect factor. In this paper, I first introduce an experiment in which disjunctive causal factors seem to pose a problem for the theory of probabilistic causation. Second, I show how Eells' solution to the problem of disjunctive causal factors meets the problem that arises in the experiment. Third, I examine Hitchcock's arguments against Eells' solution, arguing that Hitchcock misconstrues Eells' solution, and disregards the feature of the theory of probabilistic causation such that a factor is a causal factor for another factor relative to a population P of a population type Q.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.75-102
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• 2006

Three experiments were conducted using a verification task to examine good and poor readers' generation of causal inferences(with because sentences) and contrastive inferences(with although sentences). The unfamiliar, critical verification statement was either explicitly mentioned or was implied. In Experiment 1, both good and poor readers responded accurately to the critical statement, suggesting that both groups had the linguistic knowledge necessary to the required inferences. Differences were found, however, in the groups' verification latencies. Poor, but not good, readers responded faster to explicit than to implicit verification statements for both because and although sentences. In Experiment 2, poor readers were induced to generate causal inferences for the because experimental sentences by including fillers that were apparently counterfactual unless a causal inference was made. In Experiment 3, poor readers were induced to generate contrastive inferences for the although sentences by including fillers that could only be resolved by making a contrastive inference. Verification latencies for the critical statements showed that poor readers made causal inferences in Experiment 2 and contrastive inferences in Experiment 3 doting comprehension. These results were discussed in terms of context effect: Specific encoding operations performed on anomaly backgrounded in another passage would form part of the context that guides the ongoing activity in processing potentially relevant subsequent text.

• Journal of Korean Philosophical Society
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• v.146
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• pp.307-328
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• 2018

The use of thought experiments has a long history in many disciplines including science. In the field of philosophy, thought experiments have frequently appeared in the pre-existing literature on the contemporary Analytic Philosophy. A thought experiment refers to a synthetic environment where the designer of the experiment-with his or her intuition and imagination-tests common-sense knowledge. It can be understood as a conceptual tool for testing the validity of the common understanding of an issue or a phenomenon. However, we are not certain about the usefulness or efficacy of a thought experiment in knowledge production. The design of a thought experiment is meant to lure readers into believing as intended by the experiment itself. Thus, regardless of the purpose of a thought experiment, many readers who encounter the experiment could feel deceived. In this paper, to analyze the logic of thought experiments and to seek the source of uneasiness the readers and critics may feel about thought experiments, I draw lessons from three renowned thought-experiments: Thomson's 'ailing violinist', Putnam's 'brain in a vat', and Searle's 'Chinese room'. Imaginative thought experiments are usually constructed around a gap between the reality and the knowledge/information at hand. From the three experiments, several lessons can be learned. First, the evidence of the existence of a gap provided via thought experiments can serve as arguments for counterfactual situations. At the same time, the credibility and efficacy of the thought experiments can be damaged as soon as the thought-experiments are carried out with inappropriate and/or murky directions regarding the procedures of the experiment or the background of the study. According to D. R. Hofstadter and D. C. Dennett(1981), the 'knob setting' in a thought experiment can be altered in the middle of a simulation of the experimental condition, and then the implications of the thought experiment change altogether, indicating that an entirely different conclusion can be deduced from thought experiment. Lastly, some pre-suppositions and bias of the experiment designers play a considerable role in the validity and the chances of success of a thought experiment; thus, it is recommended that the experiment-designers refrain from exercising too much of their imagination in order to avoid contaminating the design of the experiment and/or wrongly accepting preconceived/misguided conclusions.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.10 no.9
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• pp.119-126
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• 2019

In this study, we examined whether the intention to choose varies according to the experience of the regret of consumers when experiencing a failure in the status quo or non-status quo, and how self-compassion plays a moderating role in this relationship. A experiment was conducted to achieve the purpose of the study. First, this study also confirmed that regret was a mediator between dissatisfaction with choice outcomes and behavioral intentions. Second, like previous studies, this study confirmed the effect of status quo in general. However, it can be seen that the effect depend on self-compassion. Or, the regrets of those with high self-compassion and their future behavioral intentions did not change significantly whether it was wrong due to maintaining on or changing of the status quo. On the other hand, those with low self-compassion showed the bigger differences, so they were typically showing the status quo effect.