• Asian review of World Histories
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.3-34
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• 2016

This introduction is both a statement of a research problem and an account of the first research results for its solution. As more historical databases come online and overlap in coverage, we need to discuss the two main issues that prevent 'big' results from emerging so far. Firstly, historical data are seen by computer science people as unstructured, that is, historical records cannot be easily decomposed into unambiguous fields, like in population (birth and death records) and taxation data. Secondly, machine-learning tools developed for structured data cannot be applied as they are for historical research. We propose a complex network, narrative-driven approach to mining historical databases. In such a time-integrated network obtained by overlaying records from historical databases, the nodes are actors, while thelinks are actions. In the case study that we present (the world as seen from Venice, 1205-1533), the actors are governments, while the actions are limited to war, trade, and treaty to keep the case study tractable. We then identify key periods, key events, and hence key actors, key locations through a time-resolved examination of the actions. This tool allows historians to deal with historical data issues (e.g., source provenance identification, event validation, trade-conflict-diplomacy relationships, etc.). On a higher level, this automatic extraction of key narratives from a historical database allows historians to formulate hypotheses on the courses of history, and also allow them to test these hypotheses in other actions or in additional data sets. Our vision is that this narrative-driven analysis of historical data can lead to the development of multiple scale agent-based models, which can be simulated on a computer to generate ensembles of counterfactual histories that would deepen our understanding of how our actual history developed the way it did. The generation of such narratives, automatically and in a scalable way, will revolutionize the practice of history as a discipline, because historical knowledge, that is the treasure of human experiences (i.e. the heritage of the world), will become what might be inherited by machine learning algorithms and used in smart cities to highlight and explain present ties and illustrate potential future scenarios and visionarios.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.199-233
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• 2014

This paper attempts to investigate how and why the additionality effects occur in the case when a firm receives government subsidy as opposed to counterfactual situation. To demonstrate this, we selected 12 SMEs(small and medium enterprises) firms in Daejeon area and have conducted multiple case studies. In order to analyse the multiple cases of firms, we classified firms innovative activities into three stages which are composed of input, behaviour and output stages and related various factors. Furthermore, we investigated the differences according to types of firms and stages of firm growth. Empirical results show that various input, behaviour and output additionality effects exist when firms receive public subsidies. Compared to companies in the growth and mature stages, startup phase companies depend on government subsidy extensively and they use public subsidies strategically to develop new product and to change their strategic direction. The attitude of firms to use government subsidies is different according to their types and stage of growth as well.

• Korean Journal of Logic
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.33-58
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• 2005

The old evidence problem raises a profound problem to Bayesian theory of confirmation that evidence known prior to a hypothesis explaining it cannot give any empirical support to the hypothesis. The old evidence problem has resisted to a lot of trials to solve it. The purpose of the paper is to solve the old evidence problem by showing that the problem originated from a serious misunderstanding about the Bayesian concept of confirmation. First, I shall make a brief analysis of the problem, and examine critically two typical Bayesian strategies to solve it. Second, I shah point out a misunderstanding commonly found among Bayesian discussions about the old evidence problem, the ignorance of the asymmetry of confirmation in the context of explanation and prediction. Lastly, 1 shall suggest two different concepts of confirmations by using the asymmetry and argue that the concept of confirmation presupposed in the old evidence problem is not a genuine Bayesian concept of confirmation.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.215-242
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• 2010

This study constructs a bayesian neoclassical DSGE model that applies oil usage. The model includes technology shocks, oil price shocks, and shocks to energy policies as exogenous driving forces. First, this study aims to analyze the roles of these exogenous shocks in the Korean business cycle. Second, this study examines the effects of long-term changes in the energy consumption structure, including the reduction in oil use as a share of energy consumption and improvement in oil efficiency. In the case of oil price shocks, results show that these shocks exert recessionary pressure on the economy in line with those obtained in the previous literature. On the other hand, shocks to energy policies, which reduce oil consumption per capital, result in opposite consequences to oil price shocks, decreasing oil consumption. Also, counterfactual exercises show that long-term changes in the energy consumption structure would mitigate the contractionary effects of oil price shocks.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.57-95
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• 2020

As a case study of an ex-post evaluation of regulations, in this paper I evaluate the 'uniform settlement rate requirement', a regulation that was introduced in 1986 and that was applied to the international telephone market in the U.S. for more than 20 years. In a bilateral market between the U.S. and a foreign country, each U.S. firm and its foreign partner jointly provide international telephone service in both directions, compensating each other for terminating incoming calls to their respective countries. The per-minute compensation amount for providing the termination service, referred to as the settlement rate, is determined by a bargaining process involving the two firms. In principle, each U.S. firm could have a different settlement rate for the same foreign country. In 1986, however, the Federal Communications Commission introduced the Uniform Settlement Rate Requirement (USRR), which required all U.S. firms to pay the same settlement rate to a given foreign country. The USRR significantly affected the relative bargaining positions of the U.S. and foreign firms, thereby changing negotiated settlement rates. This paper identifies two main routes through which the settlement rates are changed by the implementation of the USRR: the Competition-Induced-Incentive Effect and the Most-Favored-Nation Effect. I then empirically evaluate the USRR by estimating a bargaining model and conducting counterfactual experiments aimed at measuring the size of the two effects of the USRR. The experiments show remarkably large impacts due to the USRR. Requiring a uniform settlement rate, for instance, results in an average 32.2 percent increase in the negotiated settlement rates and an overall 13.7 percent ($3.43 billion) decrease in the total surplus in the U.S. These results provide very strong evidence against the implementation of the USRR in the 1990s and early 2000s.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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• no.37
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• pp.171-197
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• 2008

This study focuses on the following question; self-supporting training program increases participants' income compare to non-participants who have similar characteristics. This question is based on counterfactual assumption. In other words, this study concentrates on what the outcomes would have been if the participants were to be absent. This study adopts a quasi-experimental design. To overcome previous study's methodological weaknesses, especially selection bias, I applied matching procedure based on a propensity-score matching. Matching process was performed by using 'MatchIt' software. The major findings are as follows From Least Squares Regression analysis, I found the poor's income are significantly different according to age, pre-intervention earning, material status, and participation of training. Since the poor have homogeneous education level, education variable was not statistically significant. From the Simulation Quantities of Interest analysis, I also found that treatment group's expected incomes are lower than control's expected incomes. In other words, participation of training has a negative effect on the participants' earnings.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.10 no.9
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• pp.119-126
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• 2019

In this study, we examined whether the intention to choose varies according to the experience of the regret of consumers when experiencing a failure in the status quo or non-status quo, and how self-compassion plays a moderating role in this relationship. A experiment was conducted to achieve the purpose of the study. First, this study also confirmed that regret was a mediator between dissatisfaction with choice outcomes and behavioral intentions. Second, like previous studies, this study confirmed the effect of status quo in general. However, it can be seen that the effect depend on self-compassion. Or, the regrets of those with high self-compassion and their future behavioral intentions did not change significantly whether it was wrong due to maintaining on or changing of the status quo. On the other hand, those with low self-compassion showed the bigger differences, so they were typically showing the status quo effect.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.48-64
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• 2021

Purpose - This study examined the effect of tariff cuts on productivity in Korea's manufacturing industries and the effect of initial productivity level before tariff cuts on productivity improvement after tariff cuts. We also attempted to identify whether import-driven or export-driven factors are more important for productivity improvement, especially in low productivity industries. Design/methodology - Since tariff reduction is a policy decision that can affect cross-industry, its impact is spread across all industries beyond the scope of a single firm through the input and output network of industry structure. Accordingly, we proposed a new method to measure the change in productivity to reflect the impact of tariff cuts across industries. Through an Armington CGE analysis, changes in endogenous variables can be directly measured after the exogenous shock of tariff reduction, and the amount of movements in productivity triggered by tariff cuts can also be calculated. We can thus assess the effectiveness of exogenous policy, such as tariff cuts, through the difference between the benchmark and counterfactual values of endogenous variables. Findings - This study confirmed that tariff reduction positively affected productivity improvement in Korea's manufacturing industries. It also confirmed that productivity gains occur in Korea's leading export industries. Finally, greater productivity gains were recorded in the group with additional high-export-share or high-import-share conditions for low productivity industries. These results are, in a limited sense, consistent with the existing studies that emphasize the importance of exports and imports on productivity improvement, especially for low productivity industries. Originality/value - The results of our experiments are different from those of non-CGE studies, which measure the industry-level change in productivity with dummy coefficients, in terms of directly calculating the amount of change in productivity. In addition, we propose that the Armington CGE model is more appropriate than the Melitz CGE model to directly measure the productivity after tariff cuts. This is because the Melitz CGE model assumes the given specific productivity density, which does not change after an overall drop of tariffs. To the best of our knowledge, this approach to directly calculating productivity by reflecting the impact of tariff reduction across industries through CGE analysis, is unprecedented in this literature.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.75-102
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• 2006

Three experiments were conducted using a verification task to examine good and poor readers' generation of causal inferences(with because sentences) and contrastive inferences(with although sentences). The unfamiliar, critical verification statement was either explicitly mentioned or was implied. In Experiment 1, both good and poor readers responded accurately to the critical statement, suggesting that both groups had the linguistic knowledge necessary to the required inferences. Differences were found, however, in the groups' verification latencies. Poor, but not good, readers responded faster to explicit than to implicit verification statements for both because and although sentences. In Experiment 2, poor readers were induced to generate causal inferences for the because experimental sentences by including fillers that were apparently counterfactual unless a causal inference was made. In Experiment 3, poor readers were induced to generate contrastive inferences for the although sentences by including fillers that could only be resolved by making a contrastive inference. Verification latencies for the critical statements showed that poor readers made causal inferences in Experiment 2 and contrastive inferences in Experiment 3 doting comprehension. These results were discussed in terms of context effect: Specific encoding operations performed on anomaly backgrounded in another passage would form part of the context that guides the ongoing activity in processing potentially relevant subsequent text.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.257-286
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• 2017

This paper estimates the effects of imaginary repeated increases in excise duties on fuel oil consumption and on their income redistribution according to changes in consumer price index, if the inflation indexation system was introduced right after the second Energy Tax Reform ended in July, 2007 in Korea. In fact, nominal excise rates have not been adjusted since 2007. As a result, the real excise rates on fuel oils have been diminished inversely proportional to the consumer price index. Own- and cross-price elasticities of fuel oils such as gasoline and diesel oil are estimated under the general equilibrium framework based on the linear expenditure system. Counterfactual analyses through microsimulation in a static model are adopted to estimate the effects of introducing inflation indexation into the fuel tax in 2007 when the second Energy Tax reform ended on the fuel consumption and income redistribution in 2014. Microsimulations suggest that its introduction could have reduced the consumption of gasoline and diesel oil by 8.8% and 5.4%, respectively, ending up with increased excise revenue by 11.9%. The revenue increase in spite of decreased consumption is mainly because their demands are price inelastic. It could also have increased positive income redistributive effect by 0.01%p (from 0.12% to 0.13%), which is measured in terms of percentage decrease in Gini coefficient. In other words, the fuel excise on the two fuel oils decreased by 0.13% the Gini coefficient of before and after fuel tax income in 2014. This implies that the inflation indexation could have enlarged the income redistributive effect up to 0.13% in 2014, if it is introduced in 2007.