• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cost-effectiveness model

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Takagi-Sugeno Model-Based Non-Fragile Guaranteed Cost Control for Uncertain Discrete-Time Systems with State Delay

  • Fang, Xiaosheng;Wang, Jingcheng;Zhang, Bin
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.151-157
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    • 2008
  • A non-fragile guaranteed cost control (GCC) problem is presented for a class of discrete time-delay nonlinear systems described by Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model. The systems are assumed to have norm-bounded time-varying uncertainties in the matrices of state, delayed state and control gains. Sufficient conditions are first obtained which guarantee that the closed-loop system is asymptotically stable and the closed-loop cost function value is not more than a specified upper bound. Then the design method of the non-fragile guaranteed cost controller is formulated in terms of the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed design method.

Application of cost-sensitive LSTM in water level prediction for nuclear reactor pressurizer

  • Zhang, Jin;Wang, Xiaolong;Zhao, Cheng;Bai, Wei;Shen, Jun;Li, Yang;Pan, Zhisong;Duan, Yexin
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.7
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    • pp.1429-1435
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    • 2020
  • Applying an accurate parametric prediction model to identify abnormal or false pressurizer water levels (PWLs) is critical to the safe operation of marine pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Recently, deep-learning-based models have proved to be a powerful feature extractor to perform high-accuracy prediction. However, the effectiveness of models still suffers from two issues in PWL prediction: the correlations shifting over time between PWL and other feature parameters, and the example imbalance between fluctuation examples (minority) and stable examples (majority). To address these problems, we propose a cost-sensitive mechanism to facilitate the model to learn the feature representation of later examples and fluctuation examples. By weighting the standard mean square error loss with a cost-sensitive factor, we develop a Cost-Sensitive Long Short-Term Memory (CSLSTM) model to predict the PWL of PWRs. The overall performance of the CSLSTM is assessed by a variety of evaluation metrics with the experimental data collected from a marine PWR simulator. The comparisons with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model and the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model demonstrate the effectiveness of the CSLSTM.

Developing a Non-Periodic Preventive Maintenance Model Guaranteeing the Minimum Reliability (최소 신뢰도를 보장하는 비 주기적 예방보전 모형 개발)

  • Lee, Juhyun;Ahn, Suneung
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.104-113
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This paper proposes the non-periodic preventive maintenance policy based on the level of cumulative hazard intensity. We aim to construct a cost-effectiveness on the proposed model with relaxing the constraint on reliability. Methods: We use the level of cumulative hazard intensity as a condition variable, instead of reliability. Such a level of cumulative hazard intensity can derive the reliability which decreases as the frequency of preventive maintenance action increases. We also model the imperfect preventive maintenance action using the proportional age setback model. Conclusion: We provide a numerical example to illustrate the proposed model. We also analyze how the parameters of our model affect the optimal preventive maintenance policy. The results show that as long as high reliability is guaranteed, the inefficient preventive maintenance action is performed reducing the system operation time. Moreover, the optimal value of the proposed model is sensitive to changes in preventive maintenance cost and replacement cost.

Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Different Management Strategies between Best Supportive Care and Second-line Chemotherapy for Platinum-resistant or Refractory Ovarian Cancer

  • Luealon, Phanida;Khempech, Nipon;Vasuratna, Apichai;Hanvoravongchai, Piya;Havanond, Piyalamporn
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.799-805
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    • 2016
  • Background: There is no standard treatment for patients with platinum-resistant or refractory epithelial ovarian cancer. Single agent chemotherapies have evidence of more efficacy and less toxicity than combination therapy. Most are very expensive, with appreciable toxicity and minimal survival. Since it is difficult to make comparison between outcomes, economic analysis of single-agent chemotherapy regimens and best supportive care may help to make decisions about an appropriate management for the affected patients. Objective: To evaluate the cost effectiveness of second-line chemotherapy compared with best supportive care for patients with platinum-resistant or refractory epithelial ovarian cancer. Materials and Methods: A Markov model was used to estimate the effectiveness and total costs associated with treatments. The hypothetical patient population comprised women aged 55 with platinum-resistant or refractory epithelial ovarian cancer. Four types of alternative treatment options were evaluated: 1) gemcitabine followed by BSC; 2) pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD) followed by BSC; 3) gemcitabine followed by topotecan; and 4) PLD followed by topotecan. Baseline comparator of alternative treatments was BSC. Time horizon of the analysis was 2 years. Health care provider perspective and 3% discount rate were used to determine the costs of medical treatment in this study. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) were used to measure the treatment effectiveness. Treatment effectiveness data were derived from the literature. Costs were calculated from unit cost treatment of epithelial ovarian cancer patients at various stages of disease in King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital (KCMH) in the year 2011. Parameter uncertainty was tested in probabilistic sensitivity analysis by using Monte Carlo simulation. One-way sensitivity analysis was used to explore each variable's impact on the uncertainty of the results. Results: Approximated life expectancy of best supportive care was 0.182 years and its total cost was 26,862 Baht. All four alternative treatments increased life expectancy. Life expectancy of gemcitabine followed by BSC, PLD followed by BSC, gemcitabine followed by topotecan and PLD followed by topotecan was 0.510, 0.513, 0.566, and 0.570 years, respectively. The total cost of gemcitabine followed by BSC, PLD followed by BSC, gemcitabine followed by topotecan and PLD followed by topotecan was 113,000, 124,302, 139,788 and 151,135 Baht, respectively. PLD followed by topotecan had the highest expected quality-adjusted life-years but was the most expensive of all the above strategies. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of gemcitabine followed by BSC, PLD followed by BSC, gemcitabine followed by topotecan and PLD followed by topotecan was 344,643, 385,322, 385,856, and 420,299 Baht, respectively. Conclusions: All of the second-line chemotherapy strategies showed certain benefits due to an increased life-year gained compared with best supportive care. Moreover, gemcitabine as second-line chemotherapy followed by best supportive care in progressive disease case was likely to be more effective strategy with less cost from health care provider perspective. Gemcitabine was the most cost-effective treatment among all four alternative treatments. ICER is only an economic factor. Treatment decisions should be based on the patient benefit.

The Maintenance Cost Estimation Model for Information System Maintenance Based on the Operation, Management and Service Metrics (운영·관리 및 서비스 지표에 기반한 정보시스템 유지보수 비용 추정 모델)

  • Lee, Byoung-Chol;Rhew, SungYul
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.77-85
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we present the cost measurement metrics for the operation management and service improvement besides the general maintenance. The cost measurement metrics of the operation management and service improvement are based on the metrics that are classified and summarized precedent studies and complemented by empirical measuring indicators, and we propose the maintenance cost estimation model based on this metrics. The maintenance costs can be calculated detailedly, because the proposed metrics can be used selectively, depending on the scope of the information system maintenance. The effectiveness of the proposed maintenance cost measurement metrics and cost estimation model is verified by comparison between existing studies and our research.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Different Management Strategies for Detection CIN2+ of Women with Atypical Squamous Cells of Undetermined Significance (ASC-US) Pap Smear in Thailand

  • Tantitamit, Tanitra;Termrungruanglert, Wichai;Oranratanaphan, Shina;Niruthisard, Somchai;Tanbirojn, Patuou;Havanond, Piyalamporn
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.16
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    • pp.6857-6862
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    • 2015
  • Background: To identify the optimal cost effective strategy for the management of women having ASC-US who attended at King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital (KMCH). Design: An Economical Analysis based on a retrospective study. Subject: The women who were referred to the gynecological department due to screening result of ASC-US at King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, a general and tertiary referral center in Bangkok Thailand, from Jan 2008 - Dec 2012. Materials and Methods: A decision tree-based was constructed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of three follow up strategies in the management of ASC-US results: repeat cytology, triage with HPV testing and immediate colposcopy. Each ASC-US woman made the decision of each strategy after receiving all details about this algorithm, advantages and disadvantages of each strategy from a doctor. The model compared the incremental costs per case of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+) detected as measured by incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Results: From the provider's perspective, immediate colposcopy is the least costly strategy and also the most effective option among the three follow up strategies. Compared with HPV triage, repeat cytology triage is less costly than HPV triage, whereas the latter provides a more effective option at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 56,048 Baht per additional case of CIN 2+ detected. From the patient's perspective, the least costly and least effective is repeat cytology triage. Repeat colposcopy has an incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER) of 2,500 Baht per additional case of CIN2+ detected when compared to colposcopy. From the sensitivity analysis, immediate colposcopy triage is no longer cost effective when the cost exceeds 2,250 Baht or the cost of cytology is less than 50 Baht (1USD = 31.58 THB). Conclusions: In women with ASC-US cytology, colposcopy is more cost-effective than repeat cytology or triage with HPV testing for both provider and patient perspectives.

The Optimal Process of Weapon Acquisition Management (I) -With Special Reference to the Cost/Effectiveness Model for the Selection of Weapon Acquisition System- (무기체계 획득관리의 최적화 (I) -무기체계 획득시스템의 선정을 위한 비용대효과분석모형을 중심으로-)

  • Lee Jin-Joo;Kwon Tae-Young;Joo Nam-Youn
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.49-77
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    • 1977
  • Weapon systems are curcial instruments for the security of a nation and critical elements for the victory in a war. Since modern weapon systems tend to be capital-intensive with high precision and quality, they become more and more complex and diversified; their acquisition costs become huge; and their technological obsolescence becomes accelerated. Therefore, the systematic management of weapon acquisition process would be one of the most important defense tasks at the national level. To analyze such problems and find solutions, this paper has studied various aspects related to the efficient management of weapon system acquisition. After brief summarization of the general characteristics of weapon systems, their effectiveness, and developmental trend, the paper discusses the defense management policies and techniques for the weapon systems. Specifically, four alternative acquisition methods such as indigenous R & D, foreign purchase, co-production and joint-production are discussed and analyzed by systems approach. The systems analysis procedure to evaluate and select weapon acquisition method is as follows; 1) to analyze the merits and demerits of the alternative methods, 2) to screen unrealistic alternatives through the consideration of significant factors such as political, economic, military, technological, and social constraints, 3) to evaluate and select an optimal one among the remaining acquisition methods after the cost-effectivenss analysis. For the base of cost-effectivess analysis, cost analysis model as well as effectiveness analysis model of each acquisition method are developed.

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Cost-effectiveness Analysis and Application of DSM Program (DSM 프로그램의 비용효과 분석 및 적용)

  • Park, J.J.;Rhee, C.H.;Jo, I.S.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1996.07b
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    • pp.692-694
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    • 1996
  • Recently, rapid increase in electricity demand, tremendous financial need for new power plant construction, and environmental problem have led to search for more efficient energy production and energy conservation technologies. Due to the potential energy and cost savings to electric utilities, DSM plays an important role in the electric resource planning. However, implementation of cost-effective DSM program requires appropriate analysis methodologies and procedures. In this study, we present the cost-effectiveness analysis model for DSM program evaluation. We also present a case study to analyze DSM program.

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Development of a New Numerical Analysis Method for Nodal Probabilistic Production Cost Simulation (각 부하지점별 확률론적 발전비용 산정을 위한 수치해석적 방법의 개발)

  • Kim, Hong-Sik;Mun, Seung-Pil;Choe, Jae-Seok;No, Dae-Seok;Cha, Jun-Min
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.50 no.9
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    • pp.431-439
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    • 2001
  • This Paper illustrates a new numerical analysis method using a nodal effective load model for nodal probabilistic production cost simulation of the load point in a composite power system. The new effective load model includes capacities and uncertainties of generators as well as transmission lines. The CMELDC(composite power system effective load duration curve) based on the new effective load model at HLll(Hierarchical Level H) has been developed also. The CMELDC can be obtained from convolution integral processing of the outage capacity probabilistic distribution function of the fictitious generator and the original load duration curve given at the load point. It is expected that the new model for the CMELDC proposed in this study will provide some solutions to many problems based on nodal and decentralized operation and control of an electric power systems under competition environment in future. The CMELDC based on the new model at HLll will extend the application areas of nodal probabilistic production cost simulation, outage cost assessment and reliability evaluation etc. at load points. The characteristics and effectiveness of this new model are illustrated by a case study of MRBTS(Modified Roy Billinton Test System).

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Practical Model to Estimate Road User Cost for Bridge Maintenance Strategy (교량 유지관리 전략 수립을 위한 실용적 도로이용자비용 추정 모델)

  • Park, Kyung-Hoon;Sun, Jong-Wan;Lee, Sang-Yoon;Lee, Jong-Soon;Cho, Hyo-Nam
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.131-142
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    • 2007
  • The road user cost in indirect costs as well as direct costs such as the inspection/ diagnosis cost and the repair/reinforcement cost should be considered as one of the important items in the life-cycle cost-effective design and maintenance of the bridges. To estimate the road user cost, this paper formulates the road user cost as a sum of the user delay cost and the vehicle operating cost considering the detour effect. A numerical traffic simulation and a regression analysis are performed to develop a regression model due to a time delay. The proposed regression model is applied to the generation of the maintenance strategy based on the life-cycle cost and performance, and its effectiveness and applicability is investigated. The road user cost has a great influence on establishing the maintenance strategy, and the proposed regression model could be successfully utilized to estimate the road user cost of a bridge.