• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cost Estimation

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Multi-task Learning Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Monitoring and Forecasting through Fusion of Geostationary Satellite Data and Numerical Forecasting Model Output (정지궤도 기상위성 및 수치예보모델 융합을 통한 Multi-task Learning 기반 태풍 강도 실시간 추정 및 예측)

  • Lee, Juhyun;Yoo, Cheolhee;Im, Jungho;Shin, Yeji;Cho, Dongjin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_3
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    • pp.1037-1051
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    • 2020
  • The accurate monitoring and forecasting of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are able to effectively reduce the overall costs of disaster management. In this study, we proposed a multi-task learning (MTL) based deep learning model for real-time TC intensity estimation and forecasting with the lead time of 6-12 hours following the event, based on the fusion of geostationary satellite images and numerical forecast model output. A total of 142 TCs which developed in the Northwest Pacific from 2011 to 2016 were used in this study. The Communications system, the Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) data were used to extract the images of typhoons, and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provided by the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was employed to extract air and ocean forecasting data. This study suggested two schemes with different input variables to the MTL models. Scheme 1 used only satellite-based input data while scheme 2 used both satellite images and numerical forecast modeling. As a result of real-time TC intensity estimation, Both schemes exhibited similar performance. For TC intensity forecasting with the lead time of 6 and 12 hours, scheme 2 improved the performance by 13% and 16%, respectively, in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) when compared to scheme 1. Relative root mean squared errors(rRMSE) for most intensity levels were lessthan 30%. The lower mean absolute error (MAE) and RMSE were found for the lower intensity levels of TCs. In the test results of the typhoon HALONG in 2014, scheme 1 tended to overestimate the intensity by about 20 kts at the early development stage. Scheme 2 slightly reduced the error, resulting in an overestimation by about 5 kts. The MTL models reduced the computational cost about 300% when compared to the single-tasking model, which suggested the feasibility of the rapid production of TC intensity forecasts.

Estimation of Fractional Urban Tree Canopy Cover through Machine Learning Using Optical Satellite Images (기계학습을 이용한 광학 위성 영상 기반의 도시 내 수목 피복률 추정)

  • Sejeong Bae ;Bokyung Son ;Taejun Sung ;Yeonsu Lee ;Jungho Im ;Yoojin Kang
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_3
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    • pp.1009-1029
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    • 2023
  • Urban trees play a vital role in urban ecosystems,significantly reducing impervious surfaces and impacting carbon cycling within the city. Although previous research has demonstrated the efficacy of employing artificial intelligence in conjunction with airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to generate urban tree information, the availability and cost constraints associated with LiDAR data pose limitations. Consequently, this study employed freely accessible, high-resolution multispectral satellite imagery (i.e., Sentinel-2 data) to estimate fractional tree canopy cover (FTC) within the urban confines of Suwon, South Korea, employing machine learning techniques. This study leveraged a median composite image derived from a time series of Sentinel-2 images. In order to account for the diverse land cover found in urban areas, the model incorporated three types of input variables: average (mean) and standard deviation (std) values within a 30-meter grid from 10 m resolution of optical indices from Sentinel-2, and fractional coverage for distinct land cover classes within 30 m grids from the existing level 3 land cover map. Four schemes with different combinations of input variables were compared. Notably, when all three factors (i.e., mean, std, and fractional cover) were used to consider the variation of landcover in urban areas(Scheme 4, S4), the machine learning model exhibited improved performance compared to using only the mean of optical indices (Scheme 1). Of the various models proposed, the random forest (RF) model with S4 demonstrated the most remarkable performance, achieving R2 of 0.8196, and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.0749, and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.1022. The std variable exhibited the highest impact on model outputs within the heterogeneous land covers based on the variable importance analysis. This trained RF model with S4 was then applied to the entire Suwon region, consistently delivering robust results with an R2 of 0.8702, MAE of 0.0873, and RMSE of 0.1335. The FTC estimation method developed in this study is expected to offer advantages for application in various regions, providing fundamental data for a better understanding of carbon dynamics in urban ecosystems in the future.

Analysis of the Utilization Characteristics of Electrical Power and Equipments on the Farms (농촌의 전력및 전기기기의 이용특성분석)

  • 박승우;류한열
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.3943-3955
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    • 1975
  • The purposes of this study are to evaluate the utilization characteristics of electrical power consumption, to grasp the present trends in the use of electrical equipments, to estimate the demand factor and load factor being held, and to evaluate the efficiency of electical uses for the recently electrified farms cultivating paddy rice. For the purposes, 109 sample farms located in eleven villiages electrified in six different years from 1968 to 1973, were chosen at random and investigated on 35 items concerning to electrical uses and wiring systems. The survey was carried out in 1975, in the vinicity of Suweon city. The results are summarized as follows: i) The average annual power consumption on sample farms is considered to be low, being 242.9 Kwh. in 1974, and varied according to the different electrified year and size of cultivated land, respectively. It has significant positive correlation to the area of farm, too. ii) Between the number of year of electrical uses and the power consumption, there is very significant positive correlation, which could be expressed as Y=43.041+16.108 X, where X represents the number of years of electrical uses. The annual increment of power consumption is much greater at the beginning of the electrification than that at the later years, its average being approximately 20 percent. However, it is recommended that any estimation of long-term increments should be carefully investigated. iii) The monthly power consumption varies considerably throughout a year, in which the heaviest farm load occurs in November. Observing the seasonal variation of consumption, the winter-time is the heaviest season while the summer is the lowest. The result implies house lighting is chief contribution to the present electrical consumption on the farms. Comparing the variation of monthly consumption ratios between the sample farms and industries, the electrical uses on the farms are independant of the industrial uses, and further, the agricultural uses are of inverse pattern to the farms from the results that there is negative correlationship between them, iv) The number of electrical equipments used on the farms are occupied chiefly by lighting sources. Next to the lighting sources, household appliances of small quantity and some motors are used. The mean electrical quantity is about 1, 127.4 watt, which corresponds to about 37.6 per cent to the contracted quantity. The composition of quantity is chiefly occupied by the electrical motor of about 1.5 hp., single-phased. The number of the annual utilization hours of each equipment is tabulated in Table IV-5. In contradiction to the high utilization of lighting sources and small household appliances, the motor is poorly used for approximately 22 hours in a year. v) More than 55 per cent of farms want to purchase new electrical equipments such as small household appliances and electrical motors in their number. The impulse of purchasing such items is stimulated by the contacts to the mass media and their knowledge on such equipments. Consequently, the increase of electrical uses could be prompted by such trials as education and demonstration. vi) The demand and load factors on the farms vary considerably according to the greater variation of the power consumption, daily or monthly. The daily demand factor is 22.4 per cent and load factor 18.6 per cent, while the annual demand factor is 1.3 per cent and load factor 70 per cent approximately. Therefore, the low efficiency of construction cost requires re-evaluation of the present contracted quantity of 3 Kw. or increase of electrical uses. vii) The electrical energy on the farms devoted chiefly to lighten the farm residences does not contribute to the farm incomes. Consequently, the cost of electrical consumption presses considerably upon the farm economy. Therefore, there is great need to build up the electrical uses on the farms through the development of new works and techinques to utilize any electrical equipments on the production of farm products. Further more, such the development should be related to increase the actual income of the farm consumers.

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A Study on the Estimation Method of the Repair Rates in Finishing Materials of Domestic Office Buildings (국내 업무시설 건축 마감재의 수선율 산정 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Nam;Yoo, Hyun-Seok;Kim, Young-Suk
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.52-63
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    • 2015
  • Business facilities among domestic architectures have rapidly been constructed along with domestic economic development. It is an important facility taking the second largest proportion next to apartment buildings among current 31 building types of fire department classification of 2012 year for urban architectures. The expected service life of business facilities is 15 years, but 70% of those in urban areas have surpassed the 15 year service life as of the present 2014. Thus, the demand for urgent rehabilitation of such facilities is constantly increasing due to the aging and performance deterioration of the facilities'main finishing materials. Especially, the business facilities are being used for the lease of company office or private office, and such problems as aging and performance deterioration of the facilities could cause less competitive edge for leasing and real estate value depreciation for the O&M (Operation & Management) agent and the owner, respectively. Therefore, an effective planned rehabilitation as a preventive measure according to the standardized repair rate by the number of years after the construction is in need in order to prevent the aging and performance deterioration of the facilities(La et al. 2001). Nonetheless, domestic repair/rehabilitation standards based on the repair rate are mainly limited to apartment buildings and pubic institutions, resulting in impractical application of such standards to business facilities. It has been investigated and analyzed that annual repair rate data for each finishing material are required for examination of the applicability of the repair rate standard for the purpose of establishment of a repair plan. Hence, this study aimed at developing a repair rate computation model for finishing materials of the facilities and verifying the appropriateness of the annual repair rate for each finishing material through a case study after collecting and analyzing the repair history data of six business facilities. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the planning and implementation of more efficient repair/rehabilitation budget by preventing the waste of unpredicted repair cost and opportunity cost for the sake of the business facilities' owners and O&M agents.

Analyzing the Efficiency of Korean Rail Transit Properties using Data Envelopment Analysis (자료포락분석기법을 이용한 도시철도 운영기관의 효율성 분석)

  • 김민정;김성수
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.113-132
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    • 2003
  • Using nonradial data envelopment analysis(DEA) under assumptions of strong disposability and variable returns scale, this paper annually estimates productive. technical and allocative efficiencies of three publicly-owned rail transit properties which are different in terms of organizational type: Seoul Subway Corporation(SSC, local public corporation), the Seoul Metropolitan Electrified Railways sector (SMESRS) of Korea National Railroad(the national railway operator controlled by the Ministry of Construction and Transportation(MOCT)), and Busan Urban Transit Authority (BUTA, the national authority controlled by MOCT). Using the estimation results of Tobit regression analysis. the paper next computes their true productive, true technical and true allocative efficiencies, which reflect only the impacts of internal factors such as production activity by removing the impacts of external factors such as an organizational type and a track utilization rate. And the paper also computes an organizational efficiency and annually gross efficiencies for each property. The paper then conceptualized that the property produces a single output(car-kilometers) using four inputs(labor, electricity, car & maintenance and track) and uses unbalanced panel data consisted of annual observations on SSC, SMESRS and BUTA. The results obtained from DEA show that, on an average, SSC is the most efficient property on the productive and allocative sides, while SMESRS is the most technically-efficient one. On the other hand. BUTA is the most efficient one on the truly-productive and allocative sides, while SMESRS on the truly-technical side. Another important result is that the differences in true efficiency estimates among the three properties are considerably smaller than those in efficiency estimates. Besides. the most cost-efficient organizational type appears to be a local public corporation represented by SSC, which is also the most grossly-efficient property. These results suggest that a measure to sort out the impacts of external factors on the efficiency of rail transit properties is required to assess fairly it, and that a measure to restructure (establish) an existing(a new) rail transit property into a local public corporation(or authority) is required to improve its cost efficiency.

A study of SCM strategic plan: Focusing on the case of LG electronics (공급사슬 관리 구축전략에 관한 연구: LG전자 사례 중심으로)

  • Lee, Gi-Wan;Lee, Sang-Youn
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.83-94
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    • 2011
  • Most domestic companies, with the exclusion of major firms, are reluctant to implement a supply chain management (SCM) network into their operations. Most small- and medium-sized enterprises are not even aware of SCM. Due to the inherent total-systems efficiency of SCM, it coordinates domestic manufacturers, subcontractors, distributors, and physical distributors and cuts down on cost of inventory control, as well as demand management. Furthermore, a lack of SCM causes a decrease in competitiveness for domestic companies. The reason lies in the fundamentality of SCM, which is the characteristic of information sharing, process innovation throughout SCM, and the vast range of problems the SCM management tool is able to address. This study suggests the contemplation and reformation of the current SCM situation by analyzing the SCM strategic plan, discourses and logical discussions on the topic, and a successful case for adapting SCM; hence, the study plans to productively "process" SCM. First, it is necessary to contemplate the theoretical background of SCM before discussing how to successfully process SCM. I will describe the concept and background of SCM in Chapter 2, with a definition of SCM, types of SCM promotional activities, fields of SCM, necessity of applying SCM, and the effects of SCM. All of the defects in currently processing SCM will be introduced in Chapter 3. Discussion items include the following: the Bullwhip Effect; the breakdown in supply chain and sales networks due to e-business; the issue that even though the key to a successful SCM is cooperation between the production and distribution company, during the process of SCM, the companies, many times, put their profits first, resulting in a possible defect in demands estimation. Furthermore, the problems of processing SCM in a domestic distribution-production company concern Information Technology; for example, the new system introduced to the company is not compatible with the pre-existing document architecture. Second, for effective management, distribution and production companies should cooperate and enhance their partnership in the aspect of the corporation; however, in reality, this seldom occurs. Third, in the aspect of the work process, introducing SCM could provoke corporations during the integration of the distribution-production process. Fourth, to increase the achievement of the SCM strategy process, they need to set up a cross-functional team; however, many times, business partners lack the cooperation and business-information sharing tools necessary to effect the transition to SCM. Chapter 4 will address an SCM strategic plan and a case study of LG Electronics. The purpose of the strategic plan, strategic plans for types of business, adopting SCM in a distribution company, and the global supply chain process of LG Electronics will be introduced. The conclusion of the study is located in Chapter 5, which addresses the issue of the fierce competition that companies currently face in the global market environment and their increased investment in SCM, in order to better cope with short product life cycle and high customer expectations. The SCM management system has evolved through the adaptation of improved information, communication, and transportation technologies; now, it demands the utilization of various strategic resources. The introduction of SCM provides benefits to the management of a network of interconnected businesses by securing customer loyalty with cost and time savings, derived through the consolidation of many distribution systems; additionally, SCM helps enterprises form a wide range of marketing strategies. Thus, we could conclude that not only the distributors but all types of businesses should adopt the systems approach to supply chain strategies. SCM deals with the basic stream of distribution and increases the value of a company by replacing physical distribution with information. By the company obtaining and sharing ready information, it is able to create customer satisfaction at the end point of delivery to the consumer.

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Estimation on Optimum Fishing Effort of Walleye Pollock Fishery in the East Coast of Korea : Based on the Economic Analysis between Danish Seine Fishery and Trawl Fishery for Walleye Pollock (한국 동해 명태 어업의 적정어획노력량 추정 -동해구기선저인망어업과 동해구트롤어업의 경제성분석을 근거로-)

  • 이장욱
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.75-99
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    • 1991
  • A quantitative analysis was carried out to monitor the commercial yield level of walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma in the east coast of Korea, based on available data on catch and fishing effort, catch per unit of effort including fish prices from 1911 to 1988, using a traditional yield model. The results from the quantitative assessment were based to estimate maximum economic yield (MEY) and optimal fishing effort (E-opt) at MEY. On the other hand, interaction aspects between danish seine fishery and trawl fishery mainly targeting walleye pollock in the east coast of Korea were studied to predict optimal situation in fishing effort level from economic point of view which gives the most benefits to the two fisheries. Total production of walleye pollock in 1911 when its catch record was begun for the first time was about 12, 000 metric tons(M/T), and then the catch trend maintained nearly at the level of 50, 000 M/T per annum, showing a decreasing trend until 1930. The highest production from historical data base on walleye pollock fishery statistics was from the years in 1939 and 1940, about 270, 000 M/T and 26, 000 M/T, respectively. No production of the fish species was recorded during the years from 1943 to 1947, and from 1949 to 1951. From 1952 onwards annual production was only available from the southern part of 38$^{\circ}$N in the east coast. During two decades from 1952 to 1970, the production had sustained about less than 30, 000 M/T every year. Annual production showed an increasing trend from 1971, reaching a maximum level of approximately 162, 000 M/T in 1981. Afterwards, it has deceased sharply year after year and amounted to 180, 000 M/T in 1988. The catch composition of walleye pollock for different fishery segments during 1970~1988 showed that more than 70% of the total catch was from danish seine fishery until 1977 but from 1978 onwards, the catch proportion did not differ from one another, accounting for the nearly same proportion. Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for both danish seine fishery and trawl fishery maintained a decline tendency after 1977 when the values of CPUE were at level of 800 kg/haul for the former fishery and 1, 300 kg/haul for the latter fishery, respectively. CPUEs of gillnet fishery during 1980~1983 increased to about 3.5 times as high value as in the years, 1970~1979 and during 1987~1988 it decreased again to the level of the years, 1970~1978. The bottom longline fishery's CPUE wa at a very low level (20 kg/basket) through the whole study years, with exception of the value (60 kg/basket) in 1980. Fishing grounds of walleye pollock in the east coast of Korea showed a very limited distribution range. Danish seine fishery concentrated fishing around the coastal areas of Sokcho and Jumunjin during January~February and October~December. Distributions of fishing grounds of trawl fishery were the areas along the coastal regions in the central part of the east coast. Gillnet and bottom longline fisheries fished walleye pollock mainly in the areas of around Sokcho and Jumunjin during January~February and December. Relationship between CPUEs' values from danish seine fishery and trawl fishery was used to standardize fishing effort to apply to surplus production model for estimating maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and optimum fish effort (F-opt) at MSY. The results suggested a MSY of 114, 000 M/T with an estimated F-opt of 173, 000 hauls per year. Based on the estimates of MSY and F-opt, MEY was estimated to be about 94, 000 M/T with a range of 81, 000 to 103, 000 M/T and E-opt 100, 000 hauls per year with a range of 80, 000 to 120, 000 hauls. The estimated values of MEY and E-opt corresponded to 82% of MSY and 58% of F-opt, respectively. An optimal situation in the fishing effort level, which can envisage either simultaneously maximum yield or maximum benefit for both danish seine fishery and trawl fishery, was determined from relationship between revenue and cost of running the fleet : the optimal fishing effort of danish seine fishery was about 52, 000 hauls per year, corresponding to 50 danish seiners and 27, 000 hauls per year which is equal nearly to 36 trawlers, respectively. It was anticipated that the net income from sustainable yield estimated from the respective optimal fishing effort of the two fisheries will be about 3, 800 million won for danish seine fishery and 1, 000 million won for trawl fishery.

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Estimation of the Value of Road Traffic Noise within Apartment Housing Prices (아파트가격에 내재된 도로교통소음가치 추정)

  • 임영태;손의영
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.19-33
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    • 2001
  • In the developed countries, traffic noise is one of most serious problems faced by people's lives. So the importance of the traffic noise is quite well recognized by the infrastructure planners as well as the people. The traffic noise is valued in monetary terms in some countries and it is reflected in estimating the net present value or benefit/cost ratio. On the contrary, the effects of traffic noise are not reflected in the assessment of infrastructure in most cases in Korea. However, as the income level has been increasing, more people have been becoming to put more importance on their living conditions. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the value of traffic noise in the Seoul metropolitan area. The housing price were surveyed to use the quasi-hedonic price technique. By this way, two housing prices at the same floor level in different 128 complexes in the Seoul metropolitan area were surveyed. the actual traffic noise level was also measured. The differences of housing prices and noise levels were analyzed using the various types of regression models. The value is quite different by size of house. The value of large house is higher than that of small house. Since the income level of people in large house is higher than that in small house. it might be said that value of traffic noise for high income people is higher than that for low income people. Moreover, the increase of 1dB(A) noise affects the house price by about 0.3% in Seoul metropolitan area.

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Estimation Analysis of the Value of Welfare Facilities for the Aged Management (노인복지시설의 경영가치 추정 분석)

  • Kim, Keum Hwan;Pak, Ae Kyung;Joe, Soon Joem
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.193-203
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    • 2013
  • The social welfare service is expanding to different field as the social welfare budget is increasing. By this opportunity, it needs to make clear of the basis of argument that the necessity of development of korean government's support and aid by social policy should be worked. Welfare economics perspective, this study used by the operating expenditure in welfare facilities for the elderly old people to effect social benefits to be gained, in other words, business value analysis. Local elderly people, provide opportunities to participate in the economic activities of the family welfare services offered to attainment of the elderly welfare policy, and provide disease prevention and health promotion opportunities, to enhance the satisfaction of life, including a wide range of impact will cause. In this study, elderly people use the welfare facilities for the elderly when they get the benefits by applying the AHP analysis techniques operating value was calculated. Elderly Welfare Center operated by the result of applying P senior welfare center Case of the metropolitan area value was estimated 248.4 billion won. Contribute to the effects caused by the cost factor of the analysis was 23.1% of the total 57.3 billion won. Independence elements 57.6 billion (23.2%), the analysis of the therapeutic elements 133.4 billion (53.7%) of the net was. The result of the study anticipates the role of basic research material for the necessity of intervention, support, and aid by the Welfare facilities for the elderly field at this point in time where the welfare budget policy in terms of universal social service is reinforced, rather than the trend, until recently, of realizing the Elderly welfare budget and service as Consumption expenditure and consumable benefits and the function of performing the effect and evaluation in tentative action of social conflict.

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Development of Robotic Inspection System over Bridge Superstructure (교량 상판 하부 안전점검 로봇개발)

  • Nam Soon-Sung;Jang Jung-Whan;Yang Kyung-Taek
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.180-185
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    • 2003
  • The increase of traffic over a bridge has been emerged as one of the most severe problems in view of bridge maintenance, since the load effect caused by the vehicle passage over the bridge has brought out a long-term damage to bridge structure, and it is nearly impossible to maintain operational serviceability of bridge to user's satisfactory level without any concern on bridge maintenance at the phase of completion. Moreover, bridge maintenance operation should be performed by regular inspection over the bridge to prevent structural malfunction or unexpected accidents front breaking out by monitoring on cracks or deformations during service. Therefore, technical breakthrough related to this uninterested field of bridge maintenance leading the public to the turning point of recognition is desperately needed. This study has the aim of development on automated inspection system to lower surface of bridge superstructures to replace the conventional system of bridge inspection with the naked eye, where the monitoring staff is directly on board to refractive or other type of maintenance .vehicles, with which it is expected that we can solve the problems essentially where the results of inspection are varied to change with subjective manlier from monitoring staff, increase stabilities in safety during the inspection, and make contribution to construct data base by providing objective and quantitative data and materials through image processing method over data captured by cameras. By this system it is also expected that objective estimation over the right time of maintenance and reinforcement work will lead enormous decrease in maintenance cost.

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