• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.27 no.1
• /
• pp.123-132
• /
• 2014

Inflation uncertainty is known to have deleterious effects on facilities investment by disturbing the corporate decision on the opportunity cost of investment. In this paper, we test the validity of this hypothesis in Korea by estimating the inflation uncertainty with both a time-varing parameter model with GARCH disturbances and the relative price volatility and then, estimate the facilities investment equation which includes those uncertainty indicators. The uncertainty indexes estimated by the above-mentioned methods continue to fluctuate even after the inflation rate has dropped dramatically reflecting the structural changes of Korea's economy since the financial crisis in 1997. As a result of estimation of the investment equation by both OLS and GMM, we find the inflation uncertainty has a negative effect on facilities investment with a statistical significance. Moreover, by means of Markov-switching regression model utilized to verify the non-linearity of this relationship, we draw a conclusion that this negative effect of inflation uncertainty heightens asymmetrically during the downturn periods of business cycle.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
• /
• v.20 no.2
• /
• pp.288-298
• /
• 2017

The system of high-speed and conventional railway vehicles is diversified, and significant technological development in performance has been achieved. This study analyzed the modal change characteristics; furthermore, it estimated the value of travel time by improving the travel time and cost for the passenger's perception of railway. In this study, we formulate a mode choice model for passengers and compare it with the mixed logit model which reflects individual taste variation. In addition, the validity of the analysis is presented through an estimation the value of travel time using the derived model. For this purpose, a stated preference survey was conducted with 510 people using public transportation. The benefits of time-saving can be accurately determined by estimating the value of time spent on the railway. Appropriate fares for public transportation can also be estimated.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• v.52 no.5
• /
• pp.308-315
• /
• 2019

Objectives: Estimating influenza-associated mortality is important since seasonal influenza affects persons of all ages, causing severe illness or death. This study aimed to estimate influenza-associated mortality, considering both periodic changes and age-specific mortality by influenza subtypes. Methods: Using the Microdata Integrated Service from Statistics Korea, we collected weekly mortality data including cause of death. Laboratory surveillance data of respiratory viruses from 2009 to 2016 were obtained from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. After adjusting for the annual age-specific population size, we used a negative binomial regression model by age group and influenza subtype. Results: Overall, 1 859 890 deaths were observed and the average rate of influenza virus positivity was 14.7% (standard deviation [SD], 5.8), with the following subtype distribution: A(H1N1), 5.0% (SD, 5.8); A(H3N2), 4.4% (SD, 3.4); and B, 5.3% (SD, 3.7). As a result, among individuals under 65 years old, 6774 (0.51%) all-cause deaths, 2521 (3.05%) respiratory or circulatory deaths, and 1048 (18.23%) influenza or pneumonia deaths were estimated. Among those 65 years of age or older, 30 414 (2.27%) all-cause deaths, 16 411 (3.42%) respiratory or circulatory deaths, and 4906 (6.87%) influenza or pneumonia deaths were estimated. Influenza A(H3N2) virus was the major contributor to influenza-associated all-cause and respiratory or circulatory deaths in both age groups. However, influenza A(H1N1) virus-associated influenza or pneumonia deaths were more common in those under 65 years old. Conclusions: Influenza-associated mortality was substantial during this period, especially in the elderly. By subtype, influenza A(H3N2) virus made the largest contribution to influenza-associated mortality.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
• /
• v.12 no.1
• /
• pp.147-157
• /
• 2013

This study developed the transit transfer mode choice model aimed Daegu transit users using multinomial logit model. Dependent variables of estimating multinomial logit model were transit transfer modes such as bus to bus, bus to subway, subway to subway, bus to others, and subway to others, and explanatory variables which affect transit transfer mode choice were sex, age, occupation, handicap, transfer area, purpose of travel and travel time. Also probability regarding explanatory variables was estimated using multinomial logit model and limit marginal analysis was carried out according to explanatory variables(cost, time). In the results, indicating goodness of fit is very reasonable as ${\rho}^2$=0.354. According to the result of marginal analysis for the selection of probability, when travel time is increased, users of bus to bus and bus to subway prefer to use subway to subway. Furthermore users of bus to bus and bus to subway prefer to use bus to others and subway to others when travel cost is increased in the result of marginal analysis for the selection of probability.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.47-53
• /
• 2016

Purpose - The objective of this study is to investigate the dynamic relationships among Advertising Cost (AD), Newly Registered Users(NRU), and Buying Users(BU) of Social Network Game(SNG). SNG is getting pervasive mainly due to the rapid growth of mobile game and Social Network Service(SNS). It would be helpful for marketing researchers interested in SNG and related practitioners to understand the changes in AD, NRU, and BU with time as well as the effects on one another in mutual and dynamic way. Research Design, Data, and Methodology - Necessary data were collected from Social Network Game(SNG) company. AD, NRU, and BU are endogenous variables, but new event such as launching (event) and holidays(holiday) are exogenous dummy variables. Vector Auto regression (VAR) model is generally used to examine and capture the dynamic relationships among endogenous variables. VAR model can easily capture dynamic and endogenous relationships among time-series variables. Vector Auto regression with Exogenous variables(VARX) is a model in which exogenous variables are added to VAR. To investigate this study, VARX is applied. Result - By estimating the VARX model, the author finds that the past periods' NRU affect negatively and significantly the present AD, and past periods' BU have a positive and significant impact on the increase of AD. In addition, the author shows that the past periods' AD and BU have a positive and significant effect on the increase of NRU, and the past periods' AD affect positively and significantly BU. While the impact of AD on NRU happens after 3 or 4 days (carryover effect), that of AD on BU comes about within just 1 or 2 days (immediate effect). The effect of BU on NRU can be considered as word of mouth (WOM effect). Therefore, SNG companies can obtain not only the growth of revenue but also the increase of NRU by increasing BU. Through those results, the author can also find that there are significant interactions between endogenous variables. Conclusion - This study intends to investigate endogenous and dynamic relationships between AD, NRU, and BU. They also give managerial implications to practitioners for SNS and SNG firms. Through this study, it is found that there exist significant interactions and dynamic relationships between those three endogenous variables. The results of this study can have meaningful implications for practitioners and researchers of SNG. This research is unique in that it deals with "actual" field data and intend to find "actual" relationships among variables unlike other related existing studies which intend to investigate psychological factors affecting the intention of game usage and the intention of purchasing game items. This study is also meaningful by showing that the increase of BU can be a good strategy for "killing birds with one stone" (i.e., revenue growth and NRU increase). Although there are some limitations related with future research topics, this research contributes to the current research on SNG marketing in the above mentioned ways.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
• /
• v.26 no.2
• /
• pp.99-112
• /
• 2013

This paper presents a subspace system identification for estimating the stiffness matrix and flexural rigidities of a shear building. System matrices are estimated by LQ decomposition and singular value decomposition from an input-output Hankel matrix. The estimated system matrices are converted into a real coordinate through similarity transformation, and the stiffness matrix is estimated from the system matrices. The accuracy and the stability of an estimated stiffness matrix depend on the size of the associated Hankel matrix. The estimation error curve of the stiffness matrix is obtained with respect to the size of a Hankel matrix using a prior finite element model of a shear building. The sizes of the Hankel matrix, which are consistent with a target accuracy level, are chosen through this curve. Among these candidate sizes of the Hankel matrix, more proper one can be determined considering the computational cost of subspace identification. The stiffness matrix and flexural rigidities are estimated using the Hankel matrix with the candidate sizes. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated through the numerical example of a five-story shear building model with and without damage.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
• /
• v.23 no.3
• /
• pp.356-366
• /
• 2007

In this paper a methodology is developed to prioritize replacement of water distribution pipes according to the economical efficiency of replacement and assess the long-term effects of water main replacement policies on water distribution systems. The methodology is implemented with MATLAB to develop a computer algorithm which is used to apply the methodology to a case study water distribution system. A pipe break prediction model is used to estimate future costs of pipe repair and replacement, and the economically optimal replacement time of a pipe is estimated by obtaining the time at which the present worth of the total costs of repair and replacement is minimum. The equation for estimating the present worth of the total cost is modified to reflect the fact that a pipe can be replaced in between of failure events. The results of the analyses show that about 9.5% of the pipes in the case study system is required to be replaced within the planning horizon. Analyses of the yearly pipe replacement requirements for the case study system are provided along with the compositions of the replacement. The effects of water main replacement policies, for which yearly replacement length scenario and yearly replacement budget scenario are used, during a planning horizon are simulated in terms of the predicted number of pipe failures and the saved repair costs.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.67 no.6
• /
• pp.629-641
• /
• 2018

The paper describes the development of a two-dimensional (2D) co-rotational nonlinear beam finite element that includes advanced path-following capabilities for detecting bifurcation instability in elasto-plasticity of steel elements subjected to fire without introducing imperfections. The advantage is twofold: i) no need to assume the magnitude of the imperfections and consequent reduction of the model complexity; ii) the presence of possible critical points is checked at each converged time step based on the actual load and stiffness distribution in the structure that is affected by the temperature field in the elements. In this way, the buckling modes at elevated temperature, that may be different from the ones at ambient temperature, can be properly taken into account. Moreover, an improved displacement predictor for estimating the displacement field allowed significant reduction of the computational cost. A co-rotational framework was exploited for describing the beam kinematic. In order to highlight the potential practical implications of the developed finite element, a parametric analysis was performed to investigate how the beam element compares both with the EN1993-1-2 buckling curve and with experimental tests on axially compressed steel members. Validation against experimental data and numerical outcomes obtained with commercial software is thoroughly described.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
• /
• v.12 no.6
• /
• pp.155-164
• /
• 2012

The compression of software development schedule has a limit without regarding to a development manpower. However, the actually developed softwares includes the impossible short time or unreal long time date. Previously suggested models are driving the development schedule from all of the actually developed software without considering these constraints. This paper recommends a standard of minimum and the most suitable development time period. This paper has chosen a criterion that shows the best development schedule among 5 criteria based on the actually performed projects. Moreover, this paper suggests a model that estimates the development schedule based on the best criterion.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.21 no.5 s.77
• /
• pp.53-59
• /
• 2006

Standard safety management costs can not be applied to each site with same rate, it is very difficult, because it depends on the experience, work method, work kind, work progress schedule, and hazard level of each construction company. Therefore, this study is to find out hazard level of each work kinds through questionnaire and interview and investigate analyze the status which standard safety management costs have been used. Also, this study is to show reasonable rates of standard safety management costs in construction industry and to set up countermeasures against those problem after reviewing its status in korea with in Japan and Europe. The domestic system of standard safety management costs is not considered in the foreign country, while only related subjective items have been investigated and evaluated for this study. This study is to investigate eleven project kinds of domestic system, first, and to investigate eleven items of apartment bldg, office, civil work such as bridge, tunnel, dam, plant etc, secondly. Additionally, three items of gymnasium, railway, particular steel tower are investigated in this study. Also this study is to investigate and analyze performed costs of presently processing worker finished work so that it shows a new reasonable rate against standard safety management costs in construction industry, in order to make basial data and material to be systemized.