• Title/Summary/Keyword: Contingent valuation

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Real Option Analysis to Value Government Risk Share Liability in BTO-a Projects (손익공유형 민간투자사업의 투자위험분담 가치 산정)

  • KU, Sukmo;LEE, Sunghoon;LEE, Seungjae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.360-373
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    • 2017
  • The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.

A Study on the Traditional Geographic System Recognition and Environmental Value Estimate of Hannamkeumbuk-Keumbuk Mountains for the Establishment of a Management Plan (관리계획 수립을 위한 한남금북.금북정맥의 전통적 지리체계인식과 환경가치 추정 연구)

  • Kang, Kee-Rae;Kim, Dong-Pil
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.23-33
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    • 2012
  • In this study, how much users of Hannamkeumbuk Keumbuk Mountains are aware of Baekdaegan and its attached mountain chains, a traditional geographic system, according to Sangyungpyo and basic data like the degree of awareness and use-behaviors, etc. have been studied. In addition, the environmental value of Hannamkeumbuk Keumbuk Mountains separating the central and the southern part of Korea among attached mountain ranges, secondary mountain chains, which act as an ecosystem buffer in the Baekdudaegan Range, has been estimated at the current amount of currency. In the questions of the perception of the traditional classification standard of mountain chains and Baekdudaegan, more than 70% of respondents answered that they had heard of or known them but 66.8% werenot aware of Hannamkeumbuk Keumbuk Mountains. While the awareness for Baekdudaegan is high, the perception of its attached mountain chains was very poor. DBDC responder system and CVM, which is used widely for the value estimate method of environment goods, were used. As the result, an additional benefit got when a person visits Hannamkeumbuk Keumbuk mountains was estimated as 5,813 won. It could find out that this amount was very low compared with 51,984 won, average visit cost. It judged that the reason was that damage of environmental conditions, the monotony of the trails and progress of indiscriminate environmental destruction, etc. The results of this study will offer a new perspective on public relations activities and resource conservation of Baekdudaegan and its attached mountain chains and estimate perceptions and efficient services for visitors to HannamKeumbuk Keumbuk Mountains. This study will act as data for basic planning and management to increase the mountains' value and to preserve them. Further studies are needed to make a frame of work division and management with various organizations so that the management of Hannamkeumbuk-Keumbuk Mountains may be properly established and their value may been hanced.

A Study about the Presumed Economic Value of Miscanthus Landscape Conservation - Miscanthus Colonies in Youngnam Province - (억새경관보전의 경제적 가치 추정에 대한 연구 - 영남지역 대규모 억새군락을 대상으로 -)

  • Park, Seul-gi;Lee, Sang-Cheol;Kang, Gi-lae;Choi, Song-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2016
  • To detail a picture of the economic value of Miscanthus landscape conservation in terms of cultural services aspects of Ecosystem Services, Sunghaksan(Mt.), Hwawangsan(Mt.) and Jaeyaksan(Mt.), which are known for their Miscanthus colonies, were chosen as survey sites. After examining the willingness to pay for the value of Miscanthus landscape conservation by targeting of visitors each study area, the economic value of Miscanthus landscape conservation per capita aspects was evaluated using Contingent Valuation Methods(CVM) from the collected willingness to pay for economic value of Miscanthus scenery by site. After using the target Chi-square test to analyze the differences among each site, the correlation between specific variables was investigated. Willingness to pay for the Miscanthus landscape conservation was found to increase as the respondents' income became higher. The more environmental conservation efforts were being made in their daily life, the higher willingness to pay was for Miscanthus landscape conservation. Likewise in other studies, the higher the bid was, the less willingness to pay was. The per capita assessment of the Miscanthus landscape value of the logit models in the dual estimated using the factor extracted with each of the injected variable bounds was estimated for Seunghaksan (\38,277), Hwawangsan(\38,648), and Jaeyaksan(\48,891). The average of the three sites was estimated to be \38,679. Assessment of the economic value of these Miscanthus landscape sites saw high willingness to pay by visitors when compared to the current market price inflation, such as watching movies or amusement park admission, which could mean that visitors recognize the value of ecosystem services from nature in evaluating the Miscanthus landscape.

A Study on Measuring the Environmental Value of Gyeongnam Arboretum Using the CVM (가상가치측정법(CVM)을 이용한 경남수목원의 환경가치추정 연구)

  • Kang, Kee-Rae;Ha, Sung-Gyone;Lee, Kee-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.46-55
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    • 2011
  • The importance of forests and plants are appreciated by all of us, but it is often overlooked because we are surrounded by it. The arboretum is one of facilities which provide users with education on the environment, knowledge about plants, and recreation, playing a role as a nature school by exhibiting and collecting plants of various ecosystems. Anyone can enjoy fresh air, a pleasant environment, and knowledge about a wide variety of plants on the condition that they aactually visit it and pay the entrance fee. However, it has not been measured whether the expense which users pay to enjoy an arboretum is a true value of arboretums. The environment that arboretums offer is extra-market goods, or public goods. A variety of ideas and methods to measure the value of public goods have been researched among economists, statisticians, and mathematicians. The Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) is most widely used a s an assessment method on environment goods and adopted as an estimation method for compensation for restoration of the environment by the American Supreme Court. The purpose of this study is to suggest a current monetary value correspondingent to the value of arboretums by applying the CVM. The survey suggested that when an arboretum provides a high educational value and when the respondents have a higher income, it is more likely that they would be willing to pay for entrance into the arboretum. The quantified value in monetary terms for the environmental value of Gyeongnam Arboretum is WTP mean \15,648; WTP median \13,648; and WTP truncated \15,449 per visitor. In annual terms, the amounts are calculated at WTP mean \8,408,265,024; WTP median \7,333,589,024; and WTP truncated \8,301,334,762. These quantified amounts can be thought to represent the value of conservation of arboretums and awaken users to the precious value of nature. Also, they are helpful to let the general public have proper knowledge about and recognize the value of arboretums and forests.

A Study on Estimation of Environmental Value of Tentatively Named 'East-West Trail' Using CVM (CVM기법을 이용한 가칭 '동서트레일'의 환경가치 추정)

  • Kee-Rae Kang;Yoon-Ho Choi;Bo-Kwang Chung;Dong-Pil Kim;Hyun-Kyeong Oh;Woo-Sung Lee;Su-Bok Chae
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.676-683
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    • 2022
  • Due to the effects of rapid changes in the living environment since 2000 and the recent unforeseen pandemic, people are refraining from domestic and international traveling and movement, and outdoor activities for health and the public value of forest trails, called Dullegil Trail in Korea, have become more important. This study estimated the environmental value of the tentatively named "East-West Trail," which connects the forest trails crossing Chungcheong and Gyeongsang Provinces using CVM (Contingent Valuation Method). It surveyed visitors to the East-West Trail, and 725 questionnaires were used for analysis. The average characteristics of respondents were those who exercised 2-3 times per week, visited a forest trail not far from their residence with friends or family, and showed a tendency to spend 50 thousand Korean won or more per visit. Visitors to the Dullegil Trail felt that there was a shortage of information boards on the forest trail, and they preferred a shelter in appropriate locations. We used a double-bounded dichotomous choice (BDDC) logit model proposed by Hanemann to measure the conservation value of the East-West Trail. It was estimated that the environmental value that a visitor to the East-West Trail could obtain was 30,087 won per trip. The estimated environmental value of the East-West Trail can be converted to about 94 billion won total visitors annually based on the population belonging to the direct-use zone near the East-West Trail. As there has been no study on the environmental value of forest trails using CVM, the results of this study will be able to suggest the feasibility of the government policies on forest trails.