• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.693-703
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• 2014

When setting up an experiment for extrapolation at multiple points outside the design space, we often face a difficulty in which point we should emphasize even if the polynomial model under consideration is given. In this paper we propose various methods under two possible scenarios that deal with extrapolations. One considered in this paper is the situation when the model assumed can be extended beyond the design space. In this setting, the many classical methods(including various approaches the authors proposed before) were revisited in the context of extrapolation. But the real problem arises when there is an uncertainty concerning the validity of the assumed model. Therefore, the second scenario is to develop an appropriate procedure when we have limited information about model. Consequently, a hybrid approach is suggested to deal with this issue of how to handle the multiple extrapolating under model uncertainty. A search algorithm was implemented because the classical exchange algorithm was found difficult to handle the complexity of the problem.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.9
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• pp.813-826
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• 2018

Recently, weather radar system has been widely used for effectively monitoring near real-time weather conditions. The radar rainfall estimates are generally relies on the Z-R equation that is an indirect approximation of the empirical relationship. In this regards, the bias in the radar rainfall estimates can be affected by spatial-temporal variations in the radar profile. This study evaluates the uncertainty of the Z-R relationship while considering the rainfall types in the process of estimating the parameters of the Z-R equation in the context of stochastic approach. The radar rainfall estimates based on the Bayesian inference technique appears to be effective in terms of reduction in bias for a given season. The derived Z-R equation using Bayesian model enables us to better represent the hydrological process in the rainfall-runoff model and provide a more reliable forecast.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.225-237
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• 2021

The current study aims to classify what determines entrepreneurial leadership among small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the Saudi Arabian context. It also attempted to recognize the role played by entrepreneurial leadership by supporting SMEs in the nation's sustainable economic growth. The study is based on a primary survey administered among SMEs in the Riyadh region of Saudi Arabia. Overall, 152 responses were collected. However, after data cleaning, only 107 were found to be fit for final analysis. Structural Equation Modelling using SmartPLS® Software was applied for analysis. The findings emerged from the study immensely concluded that entrepreneurial leadership is an essential instrument for managers/owners of the SMEs sector who aim to improve the efficiency of tasks and contextual performance in Saudi Arabia. The study came across that "ability to absorb uncertainty," "ability to build commitment," "the ability to frame the Challenge," "the ability of path-clearing," and "ability to specify limits," are the five constructs that help frame the entrepreneurial leadership in the Saudi context. The study suggests that leadership trainers, SME policymakers must focus on precisely these skills to inculcate the ability of entrepreneurial leadership among Saudi entrepreneurs, SMEs owners, and managers.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.53-81
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• 2012

Constructing attractive bundle offers depends on more than an understanding of the distribution of consumer preferences. Consumers are also sensitive to the framing of price information in a bundle offer. In classical economic theory, consumers' utility should not change as long as the total price paid stays same. However, even when total prices are identical, consumers' preferences toward a bundle product could be different depending on the format of price presentation and the locus of price discount. A weighted additive model predicts that the impact of a price discount on the overall evaluation of the bundle will be greater when the discount is assigned to the more important product in the bundle(Yadav 1995). Meanwhile, a reference dependent model asserts that it is better to assign a price discount to a tie-in component that has a negative valuation at its current offer price than to a focal product that has a positive valuation at its current offer price(Janiszewski and Cunha 2004). This paper has expanded previous research regarding price discount presentation format, investigating the reasons for mixed results of prior research and presenting new mechanisms for price discount framing effect. Prior research has hypothesized that bundling is used to sell a tie-in component with an offer price above the consumer's reference price plus a focal product of the same offer price with reference price(e.g., Janiszewski and Cunha 2004). However, this study suggests that bundling strategy can be used for increasing product's attractiveness through the synergy between components even when offer prices of bundle components are the same with reference prices. In this context, this study employed various realistic bundle sets with same price between offer price and reference price in the experiment. Hamilton and Srivastava(2008) demonstrated that when evaluating different partitions of the same total price, consumers prefer partitions in which the price of the high-benefit component is higher. This study determined that their mechanism can be applied to price discount presentation formats. This study hypothesized that price discount framing effect depends not on the negative perception of tie-in component with offer price above reference price but rather on the consumers' perceived consumption benefit in bundle product. This research also hypothesized that preference for low-benefit discount mechanism is that perceived consumption benefit reduces price sensitivity. Furthermore, this study investigated how consumers' concern for quality in a price discount--a factor not considered in previous research--influences price discount framing. Yadav(1995)'s experiment used only one magazine bundle of relatively low quality uncertainty and could not show the influence of perceived uncertainty of quality. This study assumed that as perceived uncertainty of quality increases, the price sensitivity mechanism for assigning the discount to low-benefit will increase. Further, this research investigated the moderating effect of uncertainty of quality in price discount framing. The results of the experiment showed that when evaluating different partitions of the same total price and the same amount of discounts, the partition that discounts in the price of low benefit component is preferred to the partition that decreases the price of high benefit component. This implies that price discount framing effect depends on the perceived consumption benefit. The results also demonstrated that consumers are more price sensitive to low benefit component and less price sensitive to high benefit component. Furthermore, the results showed that the influence of price discount presentation format on the evaluation of bundle product varies with the perceived uncertainty of quality in high consumption benefit. As perceived uncertainty of quality gradually increases, the preference for discounts in the price of low consumption benefit decreases. Besides, the results demonstrate that as perceived uncertainty of quality gradually increases, the effect of price sensitivity in consumption benefit also increases. This paper integrated prior research by using a new mechanism of perceived consumption benefit and moderating effect of perceived quality uncertainty, thus providing a clearer explanation for price discount framing effect.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.79-88
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• 2015

The web search engines are exposed to the issue of uncertainty because of ambiguous queries, being input for retrieving the accurate results. Ambiguous queries constitute a significant fraction of such instances and pose real challenges to web search engines. Moreover, web search has created an interest for the researchers to deal with search by considering context in terms of location perspective. Our proposed disambiguation approach is designed to improve user experience by using context in terms of location relevance with the document relevance. The aim is that providing the user a comprehensive location perspective of a topic is informative than retrieving a result that only contains temporal or context information. The capacity to use this information in a location manner can be, from a user perspective, potentially useful for several tasks, including user query understanding or clustering based on location. In order to carry out the approach, we developed a Java based prototype to derive the contextual information from the web results based on the queries from the well-known datasets. Among those results, queries are further classified in order to perform search in a broad way. After the result provision to users and the selection made by them, feedback is recorded implicitly to improve the web search based on contextual information. The experiment results demonstrate the outstanding performance of our approach in terms of precision 75%, accuracy 73%; recall 81% and f-measure 78% when compared with generic temporal evaluation approach and furthermore achieved precision 86%, accuracy 71%; recall 67% and f-measure 75% when compared with web document clustering approach.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.194-204
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• 2004

The purpose of this literature review is to investigate what kinds of research have been done about scientific inquiry in terms of scientific argumentation in the classroom context from the upper elementary to the high school levels. First, science educators argued that there had not been differentiation between authentic scientific inquiry by scientists and school scientific inquiry by students in the classroom. This uncertainty of goals or definition of scientific inquiry has led to the problem or limitation of implementing scientific inquiry in the classroom. It was also pointed out that students' learning science as inquiry has been done without opportunities of argumentation to understand how scientific knowledge is constructed. Second, what is scientific argumentation, then? Researchers stated that scientific inquiry in the classroom cannot be guaranteed only through hands-on experimentation. Students can understand how scientific knowledge is constructed through their reasoning skills using opportunities of argumentation based on their procedural skills using opportunities of experimentation. Third, many researchers emphasized the social practices of small or whole group work for enhancing students' scientific reasoning skills through argumentations. Different role of leadership in groups and existence of teachers' roles are found to have potential in enhancing students' scientific reasoning skills to understand science as inquiry. Fourth, what is scientific reasoning? Scientific reasoning is defined as an ability to differentiate evidence or data from theory and coordinate them to construct their scientific knowledge based on their collection of data (Kuhn, 1989, 1992; Dunbar & Klahr, 1988, 1989; Reif & Larkin, 1991). Those researchers found that students skills in scientific reasoning are different from scientists. Fifth, for the purpose of enhancing students' scientific reasoning skills to understand how scientific knowledge is constructed, other researchers suggested that teachers' roles in scaffolding could help students develop those skills. Based on this literature review, it is important to find what kinds of generalizable teaching strategies teachers use for students scientific reasoning skills through scientific argumentation and investigate teachers' knowledge of scientific argumentation in the context of scientific inquiry. The relationship between teachers' knowledge and their teaching strategies and between teachers teaching strategies and students scientific reasoning skills can be found out if there is any.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.21-41
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• 2010

This paper proposes a system that can serve users with appropriate search results through real time filtering, and implemented adaptive user profiling based personalized information retrieval system(PIRS) using users' implicit feedbacks in order to deal with the problem of existing search systems such as Google or MSN that does not satisfy various user' personal search needs. One of the reasons that existing search systems hard to satisfy various user' personal needs is that it is not easy to recognize users' search intentions because of the uncertainty of search intentions. The uncertainty of search intentions means that users may want to different search results using the same query. For example, when a user inputs "java" query, the user may want to be retrieved "java" results as a computer programming language, a coffee of java, or a island of Indonesia. In other words, this uncertainty is due to ambiguity of search queries. Moreover, if the number of the used words for a query is fewer, this uncertainty will be more increased. Real-time filtering for search results returns only those results that belong to user-selected domain for a given query. Although it looks similar to a general directory search, it is different in that the search is executed for all web documents rather than sites, and each document in the search results is classified into the given domain in real time. By applying information filtering using real time directory classifying technology for search results to personalization, the number of delivering results to users is effectively decreased, and the satisfaction for the results is improved. In this paper, a user preference profile has a hierarchical structure, and consists of domains, used queries, and selected documents. Because the hierarchy structure of user preference profile can apply the context when users perfomed search, the structure is able to deal with the uncertainty of user intentions, when search is carried out, the intention may differ according to the context such as time or place for the same query. Furthermore, this structure is able to more effectively track web documents search behaviors of a user for each domain, and timely recognize the changes of user intentions. An IP address of each device was used to identify each user, and the user preference profile is continuously updated based on the observed user behaviors for search results. Also, we measured user satisfaction for search results by observing the user behaviors for the selected search result. Our proposed system automatically recognizes user preferences by using implicit feedbacks from users such as staying time on the selected search result and the exit condition from the page, and dynamically updates their preferences. Whenever search is performed by a user, our system finds the user preference profile for the given IP address, and if the file is not exist then a new user preference profile is created in the server, otherwise the file is updated with the transmitted information. If the file is not exist in the server, the system provides Google' results to users, and the reflection value is increased/decreased whenever user search. We carried out some experiments to evaluate the performance of adaptive user preference profile technique and real time filtering, and the results are satisfactory. According to our experimental results, participants are satisfied with average 4.7 documents in the top 10 search list by using adaptive user preference profile technique with real time filtering, and this result shows that our method outperforms Google's by 23.2%.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.49-68
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• 2006

E-business strategy has interests in Issues of strategic positioning and its impact on firm performance. These studies address the environmental factors as antecedents to strategic decision makings and its consequences such like firm performance. However most studies has not considered the role of business models In explaining e-business firm performance. We adopt Porter's generic strategies to the e-business context. We Identify business models and e-business environmental factors as antecedents and then examine these factors Influence on firm performance. We find that uncertainty of environment has a negatively related to the strategic choices of e-Business firms; in contrast, market turbulence positively affects the level of adoption of all the strategies. Among the strategies, marketing differentiation only makes an Impact on firm performance.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.103-122
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• 2013

It is essential to update the model with reflecting observation or inspection data for reliability estimation of existing structures. Authors proposed updated reliability analysis by using Particle Filter. We discuss how to apply the proposed method through numerical examples on reinforced concrete structures after verification of the method with hypothetical linear Gaussian problem. Reinforced concrete structures in a marine environment deteriorate with time due to chloride-induced corrosion of reinforcing bars. In the case of existing structures, it is essential to monitor the current condition such as chloride-induced corrosion and to reflect it to rational maintenance with consideration of the uncertainty. In this context, updated reliability estimation of a structure provides useful information for the rational decision. Accuracy estimation is also one of the important issues when Monte Carlo approach such as Particle Filter is adopted. Especially Particle Filter approach has a problem known as degeneracy. Effective sample size is introduced to predict the covariance of variance of limit state exceeding probabilities calculated by Particle Filter. Its validity is shown by the numerical experiments.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.52-85
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• 1995

This paper develops a new approach to dealing with qualitative reasoning processes involved in managerial decisions, drawing upon choice strategies that have been developed within the general framework of multi-criteria decision making. Issues such as choices under uncertainty and preference formulation are addressed. An MCDM DSS intended to assist in high-level management decisions must focus on helping the decision maker to properly define the problem by providing a structure to it and to dynamically evaluate the alternative courses of action. A conceptual architecture is developed and presented to propose a general model for designing decision support systems specifically designed to assist in MCDM in a managerial context. A commercial loan approval judgment case is described to illustrate the real-world situation where decisions are made under fuzziness and usually require a high degree of intuition and subjective judgment. Development of a prototype system intended to partially represent application of the architecture is described.