• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.9
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• pp.190-198
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• 2020

The purpose of this study was to investigate the changing trajectory of self-esteem and to explore contemporaneous and lagged effects of social supports(family, friends, and teacher) of 4th graders in elementary school to 9th graders in middle school. The subjects were 1,296 multiethnic students, who participated in the Multicultural Children and Adolescents Panel Study(MCAPS) from 2011 to 2016. The results of piecewise growth function showed that students' self-esteem was increased during upper grade in elementary school but soon deceased during middle school. Individual differences were found at initial, 1st and 2nd changing status. Students with higher level at initial status in self-esteem showed less increased pattern during elementary school but greater decreased pattern during middle school. In addition, supports from family and teacher showed contemporaneous effects across all 6 years while supports from friends showed such effects only for 5 years except 9th grade. Lagged effects of family were found in elementary school and significant lagged effects with supports from friends were found at 6th and 8th grade. The results of this study imply that the social support of family, friends, and teacher has an important role to encourage the self-esteem of multicultural adolescents.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.8
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• pp.149-156
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• 2021

Gambling negatively affects the economy, and it brings unwanted financial, social, and health outcomes to gamblers. On the one hand, unemployment is argued to be a leading cause of gambling. On the other hand, gambling can cause unemployment in the second-order via gambling-induced poor health, falling productivity, and crime. In terms of significant effects, previous studies were able to establish an association, but not causality. The current study examines the time-sequence and contemporaneous causalities between lottery gambling and unemployment in Thailand. The Granger causality and directed acyclic graph (DAG) tests employ time-series data on gambling- and unemployment-related Google Trends indexes from January 2004 to April 2021 (208 monthly observations). These tests are based on the estimates from a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Granger causality is a way to investigate causality between two variables in a time series. However, this approach cannot detect the contemporaneous causality among variables that occurred within the same period. The contemporaneous causal structure of gambling and unemployment was identified via the data-determined DAG approach. The use of time-series Google Trends indexes in gambling studies is new. Based on this data set, unemployment is found to contemporaneously cause gambling, whereas gambling Granger causes unemployment. The causalities are circular and last for four months.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1043-1051
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• 2013

We use a structural vector error correction model of the labor market to investigate the effect of shocks to Korean unemployment. We associate technology, labor demand, labor supply, and wage-setting shocks with equations for productivity, employment, unemployment, and real wages, respectively. Subsequently, labor demand and supply shocks have significant long-run and contemporaneous effects on unemployment, respectively.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.781-791
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• 2021

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the business cycles of the ASEAN +3 countries. In addition, the effects of the spillover value on the coincident indicators are determined. This study employs secondary data and uses multivariate time series of five ASEAN countries, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines. The proxy was the real gross domestic product (GDP) collected annually from the CEIC, the IMF, and the World Bank for the period from 1964 to 2016. The data was plotted against two time periods, 1964-1998 as the pre-crisis period, and 1999-2016 as the post-crisis period. The index data was changed to the base year 2010. The data was subsequently separated from the trends and the cyclic components. The cyclic components were obtained by using Hondrick-Prescott filter, and them were further analyzed. The analytical method used was Contemporaneous and Cross-Correlation tools. The results showed that, before and after the crisis, the value of the business cycle correlation between ASEAN +3 countries was stronger and moved together at the same level of lag value. The implication of this research was an initial finding of the ASEAN +3 countries' prerequisites for the formation of a common currency.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.19 no.7
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• pp.409-417
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to find out how individual, family, and school factors influence adolescents' depression, and to explore the long-term influence between somatic symptom and depression. To do this, data from two points of the 4th wave (year of 2013) and the 6th wave (year of 2015) of the first-year middle school panel survey (KCYPS) were used and structural equation model analysis was conducted on 1,668 adolescents. As for results, frist, in terms of individual factors, gender, physical health status, and self-resilience significantly affected depression in adolescents. Second, among school factors, learning activities and peer relationship significantly affected depression in adolescents. Third, somatic symptom and depression had effects and auto-regressive effects over time. Based on these results, the prevention and intervention measures for somatic symptom and depression of adolescents were discussed. Future study is needed include varaiables of parental mental health that affect depression in adolescents.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-17
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• 2021

Purpose - The global trend of protectionism has expanded since the onset of US President Donald Trump's administration in 2017. This global phenomenon has led to a significant reduction in world trade volume and a negative impact on economic development in some countries where the external sector accounts for a large proportion of GDP. Although Korea is a country vulnerable to this deteriorating trade environment, few studies have examined the relationship between protectionism and its business cycles based on Korean data. Thus, this paper investigates the impact of protectionism on Korea's business cycle. Design/methodology - To identify future implications, we conduct a structural vector autoregression (VAR) analysis using monthly Korean data from 1994 to 2015. Macroeconomic variables in the model include the industrial production index, inflation rates, exports (or net exports), interest rates, and exchange rates. For the identification of the shock reflecting the expansion of protectionism, we use an antidumping investigation (ADI) data. Since ADIs are followed generally by the imposition of antidumping tariffs, they have no contemporaneous impact on tariffs and are also contemporaneously exogenous to other endogenous variables in the VAR model. We examine two kinds of ADI shocks i) shocks on Korean exports imposed by Korea's trading partners (ADI-imposed shocks) and ii) shocks on imports imposed by the Korean government (ADI-imposing shocks). Findings - We find that Korea's exports decline sharply due to ADI-imposed shocks; the lowest point at the third month after the initial shock; and do not recover until 24 months later. Simultaneously, the inflation rate decreases. Therefore, the ADI-imposed shock can be regarded as a negative shock on the demand curve where both production and price decrease. In contrast, the ADI-imposing shock generates a different response. The net exports decline, but the inflation rate increases. These can be seen as standard responses with respect to the negative shock on the supply curve. Originality/value - We shed light on the relationship between protectionism and Korea's economic fluctuations, which is rarely addressed in previous studies. We also consider the effects of both protective policy measures on imports to Korea imposed by the Korean government and on policy measures imposed by Korea's trading partner countries on its exports.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.1-27
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• 2017

It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.

• The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.335-365
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• 2012

Fission-track (FT) thermochronological records from SE Korean Cretaceous-Paleogene granitic plutons in different fault-bounded blocks reveal contrasting cooling and later thermal histories. Overall cooling patterns are represented by a monotonous (J-shaped) curve in most plutons except some Cretaceous granites retaining a complicated (N-shaped) path due to post-reset re-cooling. Discriminative cooling rates over different temperature ranges can be explained for individual plutons with respect to relative pluton sizes, differences in initial heat loss depending on country rocks, and the presence and proximity of later igneous activity. Even within a single batholith, cooling times for different isotherms were roughly contemporaneous with respect to positions. Insignificant deviations in cooling ages from two different plutons in succession across the Yangsan fault may suggest their contemporaneity before major horizontal fault movement. The extent of later thermal rise recorded locally along the Yangsan and Dongnae fault zones were reached the Apatite Partial Stability Zone ($70-125^{\circ}C$), but did not exceed $200^{\circ}C$. Thermal alteration from fractured zones in the Yangsan-Ulsan fault junction may suggest a thermal reset above $290^{\circ}C$ resulting a complete reset in FT sphene age (31 Ma), caused by a tectonic subsidence in Early Oligocene. A consistency in FT zircon/apatite ages (24 Ma) may imply a sudden rapid cooling over $200-105^{\circ}C$, plausibly related to the abrupt tectonic uplift of the Pohang-Gampo Block including the fault junction in Late Oligocene. A remarkable trend of lower cooling ages for $300-200-100^{\circ}C$ isotherms (i.e., 19% for FT sphene and K-Ar biotite; 20% for FT zircon; 27% for FT apatite) from the east of the Ulsan fault (Pohang-Gampo Block) comparing to the west of the fault may be attributed to retarded cooling times from the Paleogene granites and also reflected by their partially-reduced apatite ages due to later thermal effects.