• Title/Summary/Keyword: Construction uncertainty

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Adding AGC Case Studies to the Educator's Tool Chest

  • Schaufelberger, John;Rybkowski, Zofia K.;Clevenger, Caroline
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.1226-1236
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    • 2022
  • Because students majoring in construction-related fields must develop a broad repository of knowledge and skills, effective transferal of these is the primary focus of most academic programs. While inculcation of this body of knowledge is certainly critical, actual construction projects are complicated ventures that involve levels of risk and uncertainty, such as resistant neighboring communities, unforeseen weather conditions, escalating material costs, labor shortages and strikes, accidents on jobsites, challenges with emerging forms of technology, etc. Learning how to develop a level of discernment about potential ways to handle such uncertainty often takes years of costly trial-and-error in the proverbial "school of hard knocks." There is therefore a need to proactively expedite the development of a sharpened intuition when making decisions. The AGC Education and Research Foundation case study committee was formed to address this need. Since its inception in 2011, 14 freely downloadable case studies have thus far been jointly developed by an academics and industry practitioners to help educators elicit varied responses from students about potential ways to respond when facing an actual project dilemma. AGC case studies are typically designed to focus on a particular concern and topics have thus far included: ethics, site logistics planning, financial management, prefabrication and modularization, safety, lean practices, preconstruction planning, subcontractor management, collaborative teamwork, sustainable construction, mobile technology, and building information modeling (BIM). This session will include an overview of the history and intent of the AGC case study program, as well as lively interactive demonstrations and discussions on how case studies can be used both by educators within a typical academic setting, as well as by industry practitioners seeking a novel tool for their in-house training programs.

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Estimation of Contingency for Highway Construction Project Using Regression Analysis (회귀분석을 이용한 고속도로 건설공사 예비비의 산정)

  • Yoon, Yoo Jung;Woo, Sungkwon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.4D
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    • pp.617-626
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of contingency estimate is to manage the increase in construction cost and the extension of the term of works due to the inevitable occurrence of uncertain situations. The aim of contingency strategies have two intentions. One thing, can be called a passive strategy, gets ready for construction cost increase due to uncertainty factors, the other thing, can be called a active strategy, gets rid of the obstruction factors of work prior to construction performance. Therefore, from the view point of medium and long term, there is necessary to accumulate data in conjunction with design modification cases and carefully analyze uncertainty factors from construction types and characters. Therefore, this thesis will analyze design modification case at a special work such as highway and select factors that affect construction cost and present contingency estimate process using regression analysis.

A Study on the Measures for Work Interference Reduction in Apartment Construction (공동주택 공사의 작업간 간섭 감소 방안에 관한 연구)

  • An Sung-Hoon;Kim Joon-Ho;Kang Kyung-In
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.6 no.1 s.19
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    • pp.117-122
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    • 2006
  • Apartments construction is a one of largest parts in buildings construction. In apartments construction, work interferences are frequently occurred in work processing because workspaces are very various and numerous. However, though work process is important for mainly influencing to the schedule, quality and cost of apartments construction, these work interferences are considered a kind of uncertainty, which is difficult to anticipate at construction planning stage, in work processing. Therefore, this study proposed the measures for work interference reduction in apartment buildings construction and the actual planning for practices. The results can be summarized as follows: (1) the standard of work process is checked regularly. (2) The scope of work and work process is adjusted. (3) The standard of drawings process and cost about work interferences work profess is established.

Construction performance assessment framework by means of construction simulation for earthwork operations

  • Kim, Yujin;Noh, Jaeyun;Ko, Yongho;Lee, Jaewoo;Han, Seungwoo
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.1194-1201
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    • 2022
  • The existing literature has witnessed the importance of productivity assessment and deducing factors affecting it. However, yet many models have shown limitations in practical applications in actual construction sites for process planning due to uncertainty and lack of data. This research presents a productivity assessment and database generation framework using simulation and compares the results with RSMeans to derive appropriate equipment combinations alternatives for earthwork operations. Data of 15 different conditions was collected from 5 different construction sites. Prediction accuracy above 90% were achieved for the simulation models with average error rate of 7.4%. The construction productivity assessment framework presented in this study is expected to be highly applicable to operation planning for earthwork operations.

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Uncertainty Analysis in Estimation of Roughness Coefficient Using the Field Measurement Data (현장실측에 의한 조도계수 산정의 불확실도 평가)

  • Kim, Ji-Sung;Lee, Chan-Joo;Kim, Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.10
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    • pp.801-810
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    • 2007
  • In this study, validity and limitation of the estimation of roughness coefficient using the measured field data are investigated and the errors of the calculated roughness coefficient are analyzed. The assumption of uniform flow led to much difference of the computed results in low flow, and this is due to change of the cross-section informations such as flow area and hydraulic radius rather than the difference of velocity head. From the comparison between the estimations of average roughness coefficient in the reach which is relatively long, the calculation using the modified Newton-Raphson method is very efficient and accurate. In the measured roughness coefficient, the errors of measured flow and stage are included and the lower flow is, the larger the magnitude of error of measured roughness coefficient is. But the error of depth and velocity associated with uncertainty of roughness coefficient is less than about 5% in the both of low and high flow, and it shows the validity of measured roughness coefficient.

An Uncertainty Analysis of Calculating Life Cycle Maintenance and Energy Costs for Technical Proposals (기술제안입찰을 위한 유지관리 및 에너지 비용 산출방식의 불확실성 분석)

  • Chung, Sung Young;Kim, Sean Hay
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.3-9
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    • 2018
  • Although Life Cycle Cost (LCC) must be evaluated by experts, sometimes it may not allow a sufficient time for even the experienced LCC expert to make rational decisions. Therefore, it often ends with relatively comparing the final numbers. We have broken down 110 technical proposals that are actually bade and accepted for large construction projects, and then have analyzed the uncertainty of Maintenance and Energy (M&E) cost during building life cycle, which turns out be the most volatile factor in uncertainty of LCC. Also we suggest "Value Engineering Index (VEI)" - the reduced M&E cost that is normalized by the reduced first cost. It is analyzed that the most uncertain factors of the M&E cost include repair and replacement term differing from each project, duplicated repair and replacement, non-standard repair items, and site-specific energy cost. Eventually we propose a VEI population with a mean of 1.38 and a standard deviation of 1.19, which is obtained by individually and exclusively applying the uncertain factors of the M&E cost to the 35 standard sample of technical proposals. The LCC evaluators may be able to use the VEI population as the benchmark to select the technical proposal with the most reasonable LCC among many others in two suggested manners; the one is to deterministically calculate the probability of single VEIs, and the other is to stochastically calculate the probability of the VEIs where uncertainty is quantified.

Comparison of Control Performance in Electro.hydraulic Servo Systems (전기.유압 서보 시스템의 제어성능 비교)

  • Kim, D.T.;Park, K.S.
    • Transactions of The Korea Fluid Power Systems Society
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.14-20
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    • 2006
  • A controller design procedure for an electro-hydraulic positioning systems has been developed using $H{\infty}$ control. The generalized plant models and weighting function for multiplicative uncertainty modelling error was presented along with $H{\infty}$ controller designs in order to investigate the robust stability and performance. Both disturbance rejection and command tracking performances were improved with the $H{\infty}$ controller, and the better uniformity of time response is achieved across wide range of operating conditions than the PID, LQR and LQG control scheme. The multiplicative uncertainty case was specifically suited for the design of an electro-hydraulic positioning control systems using $H{\infty}$ control.

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Uncertainty Analysis of Hyung San River Discharge due to the methods of Discharge Measurement (유량측정방법에 따른 형산강유량의 불확실도 분석)

  • Seo, Kyu-Woo;Kim, Su-Hyun;Kim, Dai-Gon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.1538-1542
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    • 2005
  • This study is to secure more accurate data of the discharge on the measurement by gaining a reliable hydrological data through the comparison the present method of measuring them and the other way that is based ISO. This study suggests the applicable measurement method of the discharge that has reliance through general elements and the analysis of uncertainty by comparing and assaying the data of the Hyung San River that is measured by the present standard. The result of this study makes us realize that we should complement the measurement method of the discharge securing the reliable and accurate hydrological data Hydrological data is very important things to perform domestic river works or install some structure in river or coast. Securing reliable and accurate hydro-data and making a thesis should go on in other to do any construction in river or coast.

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Probabilistic Technique for Power System Transmission Planning Using Cross-Entropy Method (Cross-Entropy를 이용한 전력계통계획의 확률적 기법 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Hee;Joo, Sung-Kwan
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.58 no.11
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    • pp.2136-2141
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    • 2009
  • Transmission planning is an important part of power system planning to meet an increasing demand for electricity. The objective of transmission expansion is to minimize operational and construction costs subject to system constraints. There is inherent uncertainty in transmission planning due to errors in forecasted demand and fuel costs. Therefore, transmission planning process is not reliable if the uncertainty is not taken into account. The paper presents a systematic method to find the optimal location and amount of transmission expansion using Cross-Entropy (CE) incorporating uncertainties about future power system conditions. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.

A Study on Periodic Buffer Allocation for Program Master Schedule (프로그램 공정계획을 위한 주기적 버퍼 설치에 관한 고찰)

  • Koo Kyo-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.81-87
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    • 2001
  • In a dynamically changing environment, the manager of a maintenance and remodeling (M/R) program is confronted with an increasing complexity of coordinating and cooperating multi-resource constrained multiple projects. The root causes of the complexity, uncertainty and interdependence, cause an internal disruption of an activity and chain reactions of disturbance propagation that deteriorate the stability and manageability of the program. This paper evaluates previous endeavors to apply production control and management techniques to the construction industry, and investigates the possibility of applying other management concepts and theories to organizational program management. In particular, this paper proposes a buffer allocation model by which periodic buffers are allocated in the flows of program constraint resources to stabilize a program master schedule instead of protecting individual activities. Comparative experiments by Monte Carlo simulations illustrate improved performance of the proposed model in terms of program's goals: productivity, flexibility, and long-term stability.

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