• Title/Summary/Keyword: Congestion Prediction

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Prediction of Speed in Urban Freeway Having More Freight Vehicles - Based in I-696 in Michigan -

  • Kim, Tae-Gon;Jeong, Yeon-Woo
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.36 no.7
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    • pp.591-597
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    • 2012
  • Generally an urban freeway means a primary arterial which provides road users with a free-flow speed, except for ramp junctions during rush hours. However, most road users suffer from traffic congestion in the basic segments as well as in the ramp junctions of urban freeway during rush hours, because most road users prefer urban freeways to local roads in the urban areas. This study then intends to analyze lane traffic characteristics of urban freeway basic segments having more freight vehicles during rush hours, find the lane showing a high correlation with the segment speed between lane speeds, and finally suggest a segment-speed predictive model by the lane speed of urban freeway basic segments during rush hours.

UDT Flow Control Method based on Congestion Prediction (혼잡예측 기반의 UDT 흐름제어 기법)

  • Lee, Seung-ah;Kim, Seunghae;Cho, Gihwan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2010.11a
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    • pp.1019-1022
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    • 2010
  • 네트워크 기술의 발전으로 이용할 수 있는 대역폭이 증가하고 있다. 그에 따라 증가한 대역폭을 효율적으로 사용하기 위한 전송 기술이 요구되고 있다. TCP Vegas는 RTT(Round Trip Time)를 이용해 혼잡을 미리 예측하여 윈도우 크기를 조절하는 혼잡 제어 알고리즘을 사용한다. UDT는 높은 대역폭과 큰 RTT 환경에서 대용량 데이터를 전송하기 위해 제공된 응용 기반의 전송 프로토콜이다. 본 논문에서는 UDT에 혼잡예측 알고리즘을 적용한 새로운 UDT의 혼잡제어 알고리즘을 제안한다. 혼잡예측을 통해 혼잡한 구간, 혼잡하지 않은 구간을 나누어 혼잡윈도우를 갱신한다. 혼잡하지 않은 구간에서 혼잡윈도우를 증가시키고 혼잡한 구간에서 혼잡윈도우를 감소시킴으로써 기존의 UDT보다 성능이 개선되었음을 확인 할 수 있다.

Research on the Prediction of Maritime Traffic Congestion based on Big Data (빅데이터 기반 선박 교통 혼잡도 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Jae-Yong Oh;Hye-Jin Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.15-16
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    • 2023
  • 해상교통관제 구역은 항만 시설을 사용하기 위한 입·출항 선박, 연안 해역을 이동하는 선박 등이 서로 복잡하게 운항하는 교통 패턴을 가지고 있다. 이를 안전하고 효과적으로 관리하기 위해 해상교통관제센터(VTS)에서는 선박을 실시간 모니터링하며 관제 업무를 수행하고 있지만, 교통 혼잡 상황에서는 업무 로드의 증가로 인해 관제 공백이 발생하기도 한다. 이에 교통 혼잡도 및 혼잡 구역을 예측한다면보다 효율적인 관제가 가능하지만 현재는 관제사의 경험에 전적으로 의존하고 있는 실정이다. 본 논문에서는 VTS 관점에서의 교통 혼잡을 정의하고, 과거 항적 데이터를 이용하여 항내 선박 교통 혼잡도 및 혼잡 구역을 예측하는 방법을 제안하였다. 또한, 실해역 데이터(대산항 VTS)를 적용하여 제안된 기술이 관제지원 도구로서 활용될 수 있는지 검토하였다.

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A Prediction Model on Freeway Accident Duration using AFT Survival Analysis (AFT 생존분석 기법을 이용한 고속도로 교통사고 지속시간 예측모형)

  • Jeong, Yeon-Sik;Song, Sang-Gyu;Choe, Gi-Ju
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.135-148
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    • 2007
  • Understanding the relation between characteristics of an accident and its duration is crucial for the efficient response of accidents and the reduction of total delay caused by accidents. Thus the objective of this study is to model accident duration using an AFT metric model. Although the log-logistic and log-normal AFT models were selected based on the previous studies and statistical theory, the log-logistic model was better fitted. Since the AFT model is commonly used for the purpose of prediction, the estimated model can be also used for the prediction of duration on freeways as soon as the base accident information is reported. Therefore, the predicted information will be directly useful to make some decisions regarding the resources needed to clear accident and dispatch crews as well as will lead to less traffic congestion and much saving the injured.

Speed Prediction of Urban Freeway Using LSTM and CNN-LSTM Neural Network (LSTM 및 CNN-LSTM 신경망을 활용한 도시부 간선도로 속도 예측)

  • Park, Boogi;Bae, Sang hoon;Jung, Bokyung
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.86-99
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    • 2021
  • One of the methods to alleviate traffic congestion is to increase the efficiency of the roads by providing traffic condition information on road user and distributing the traffic. For this, reliability must be guaranteed, and quantitative real-time traffic speed prediction is essential. In this study, and based on analysis of traffic speed related to traffic conditions, historical data correlated with traffic flow were used as input. We developed an LSTM model that predicts speed in response to normal traffic conditions, along with a CNN-LSTM model that predicts speed in response to incidents. Through these models, we try to predict traffic speeds during the hour in five-minute intervals. As a result, predictions had an average error rate of 7.43km/h for normal traffic flows, and an error rate of 7.66km/h for traffic incident flows when there was an incident.

A Theoretical Analysis of Probabilistic DDHV Estimation Models (확률적인 중방향 설계시간 교통량 산정 모형에 관한 이론적 해석)

  • Cho, Jun-Han;Kim, Seong-Ho;Rho, Jeong-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.199-209
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    • 2008
  • This paper is described the concepts and limitations for the traditional directional design hour volume estimation. The main objective of this paper is to establish an estimation method of probabilistic directional design hour volume in order to improve the limitation for the traditional approach method. To express the traffic congestion of specific road segment, this paper proposed the link travel time as the probability that the road capacity can accommodate a certain traffic demand at desired service level. Also, the link travel time threshold was derived from chance-constrained stochastic model. Such successive probabilistic process could determine optimal ranked design hour volume and directional design hour volume. Therefore, the probabilistic directional design hour volume can consider the traffic congestion and economic aspect in road planning and design stage. It is hoped that this study will provide a better understanding of various issues involved in the short term prediction of directional design hourly volume on different types of roads.

Strategies for Providing Detour Route Information and Traffic Flow Management for Flood Disasters (수해 재난 시 우회교통정보 제공 및 교통류 관리전략)

  • Sin, Seong-Il;Jo, Yong-Chan;Lee, Chang-Ju
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.33-42
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    • 2007
  • This research proposes strategies about providing detour route information and traffic management for flood disasters. Suggested strategies are based on prevention and preparation concepts including prediction, optimization, and simulation in order to minimize damage. Specifically, this study shows the possibility that average travel speed is increased by proper signal progression during downpours or heavy snowfalls. In addition, in order to protect the drivers and vehicles from dangerous situations, this study proposes a route guidance strategy based on variational inequalities such as flooding. However, other roads can have traffic congestion by the suggested strategies. Thus, this study also shows the possibility to solve traffic congestion of other roads in networks with emergency signal modes.

A Estimation of Dwell Time of Low-floor Buses considering S-BRT Operation Behavior (S-BRT 운행행태를 고려한 저상버스의 정차시간 예측모형)

  • Shin, S.M.;Lee, S.B.;Kim, Y.C.;Park, S.H.;Yu, Y.S.;Choi, J.H.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.72-79
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    • 2021
  • This basic study introduces the concept of S-BRT and develops dwell time estimation models that consider road geometry and S-BRT characteristics for a signal operation strategy to meet the S-BRT's operational goal of high speed and punctuality. Field surveys of low-floor buses similar in shape to S-BRTs and data collection of passengers, station elements, vehicle elements, and other factors that can affect stop times were used in a regression analysis to establish statistically significant dwell time estimation models. These dwell time estimation models are developed by categorizing according to the locations of the signal or sidewalk that have the most impact on the dwell time. In this way, the number of people boarding and alighting the bus at the crowded door and the number of people boarding and alighting the bus at the front door considering the internal congestion was analyzed to affect the dwell time. The estimation dwell time models in this study can be used in the establishment of strategies that provide priority signals to S-BRTs.

Comparative Study of PSO-ANN in Estimating Traffic Accident Severity

  • Md. Ashikuzzaman;Wasim Akram;Md. Mydul Islam Anik;Taskeed Jabid;Mahamudul Hasan;Md. Sawkat Ali
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.23 no.8
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    • pp.95-100
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    • 2023
  • Due to Traffic accidents people faces health and economical casualties around the world. As the population increases vehicles on road increase which leads to congestion in cities. Congestion can lead to increasing accident risks due to the expansion in transportation systems. Modern cities are adopting various technologies to minimize traffic accidents by predicting mathematically. Traffic accidents cause economical casualties and potential death. Therefore, to ensure people's safety, the concept of the smart city makes sense. In a smart city, traffic accident factors like road condition, light condition, weather condition etcetera are important to consider to predict traffic accident severity. Several machine learning models can significantly be employed to determine and predict traffic accident severity. This research paper illustrated the performance of a hybridized neural network and compared it with other machine learning models in order to measure the accuracy of predicting traffic accident severity. Dataset of city Leeds, UK is being used to train and test the model. Then the results are being compared with each other. Particle Swarm optimization with artificial neural network (PSO-ANN) gave promising results compared to other machine learning models like Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, Nearest Centroid, K Nearest Neighbor Classification. PSO- ANN model can be adopted in the transportation system to counter traffic accident issues. The nearest centroid model gave the lowest accuracy score whereas PSO-ANN gave the highest accuracy score. All the test results and findings obtained in our study can provide valuable information on reducing traffic accidents.

Predicting Average Speed within the Enterance and Exit Ramp Junction Areas of Urban Freeway (도시고속도로의 진출·입 연결로 접속구간 내 평균속도의 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Tae Gon;Kwon, Mi Hyeon;Ji, Seung Keun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.3D
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    • pp.215-222
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    • 2010
  • Average speed denotes a travel speed based on the average travel time of vehicles to traverse a segment of roadway, and average travel speed is used as a measure of effectiveness (MOE) suggested in the highway capacity manual (HCM) for evaluating the level of service (LOS) of roadway. Most of the urban freeways in our country are having congestion problem regardless of the rush hours as a high-speed highway with a speed limit of 80km/h or less. Especially traffic congestion within the ramp junction areas is becoming worse by the increased traffic and lack of links with the arterials around the urban freeway. So, the purpose in this study is to identify the traffic characteristics within the ramp junction areas of urban freeway, predict the average speed within the ramp junction areas based on the traffic characteristics identified, and finally prove the validity of the average speed predicted.