• Title/Summary/Keyword: Confidence Evaluation

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Study on Thermal Load Capacity of Transmission Line Based on IEEE Standard

  • Song, Fan;Wang, Yanling;Zhao, Lei;Qin, Kun;Liang, Likai;Yin, Zhijun;Tao, Weihua
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.464-477
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    • 2019
  • With the sustained and rapid development of new energy sources, the demand for electric energy is increasing day by day. However, China's energy distribution is not balanced, and the construction of transmission lines is in a serious lag behind the improvement of generating capacity. So there is an urgent need to increase the utilization of transmission capacity. The transmission capacity is mainly limited by the maximum allowable operating temperature of conductor. At present, the evaluation of transmission capacity mostly adopts the static thermal rating (STR) method under severe environment. Dynamic thermal rating (DTR) technique can improve the utilization of transmission capacity to a certain extent. In this paper, the meteorological parameters affecting the conductor temperature are analyzed with the IEEE standard thermal equivalent equation of overhead transmission lines, and the real load capacity of 220 kV transmission line is calculated with 7-year actual meteorological data in Weihai. Finally, the thermal load capacity of DTR relative to STR under given confidence is analyzed. By identifying the key parameters that affect the thermal rating and analyzing the relevant environmental parameters that affect the conductor temperature, this paper provides a theoretical basis for the wind power grid integration and grid intelligence. The results show that the thermal load potential of transmission lines can be effectively excavated by DTR, which provides a theoretical basis for improving the absorptive capacity of power grid.

A Study on the Cases of the Disaster Psychology Course in the field of Disaster & Security based on the Problem-Based Learning (PBL(문제 중심 학습)을 적용한 방재안전분야의 재해 심리 수업사례 연구)

  • Lee, Mi-Suk;Kim, Soo-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is designed to apply the model of the problem-based learning in the class of Disaster Psychology and then analyze the experiences that its students felt. The participants in this research are 56 undergraduates. The class of Disaster Psychology was conducted with blended learning using lecture and PBL. The PBL problem should be solved just for 3 weeks. The data collected after the class is an analysis of the PBL problem, log on group activities, personal reflection diary, Group evaluation. Then, each data should be collected and analyzed quantitatively through the repetitive comparison, and the triangle-measurement. The findings suggest that there is a remarkable educational learning experience in seven categories: acquire expertise, confidence, practical problem-solving skill, communication ability, roles of calling, efficacy, change in perspective. This study introduces a case of PBL course development and expects subsequent applications and research.

Effects of Critical Thinking and Communication Skills on the Problem-Solving Ability of Dental Hygiene Students

  • Han, Ji-Hyoung;Ahn, Eunsuk;Hwang, Ji-Min
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2019
  • Background: This study aimed to investigate the effects of critical thinking and good communication skills on the problem-solving abilities of dental hygiene students. Methods: A total of 508 dental hygiene students were convenience-sampled from 3 universities. Results: The results revealed that critical thinking had the highest intellectual fairness score of 3.60, and systematicity was the lowest at 3.19. The values for communication skills were high in reaction, social adequacy, and concentration, with an average of 3.65. Problem-solving abilities were in the following order: clarification of the problem, seeking solutions, and decision making. According to general characteristics, more extroverted personalities possessed higher levels of critical thinking, communication skills, and problem-solving abilities (p<0.01). Critical thinking scores were high (p=0.016) in students who responded that peer relationship was difficult; however, their communication skills were the lowest (p<0.001). Additionally, problem-solving abilities were highest among students who reported a difficult peer relationship (p=0.001). The higher the satisfaction with dental hygiene academics, the higher the critical thinking, communication skill, and problem-solving ability (p<0.001). Critical thinking showed a high positive correlation with variables in the following order: clarification of the problem, performing the solutions, seeking solutions, decision making, and evaluation and reflection. The communication skills were also related to these variables listed above (p<0.01). With critical thinking, confidence, watchfulness, intellectual passion/curiosity, sound skepticism, objectivity, and systematicity all influenced the problem-solving ability. Conclusion: Communication skills were influenced by noise control, putting on the other's shoe, social tensions, and efficiency, which affected the problem-solving ability. Dental clinics require dental hygienists to have critical thinking to make analytical judgments and effective communication skills to solve human relation problems with patients and care-givers. Therefore, these skills should be developed in dental hygiene students to improve their problem-solving abilities.

Evaluation of PNU CGCM Ensemble Forecast System for Boreal Winter Temperature over South Korea (PNU CGCM 앙상블 예보 시스템의 겨울철 남한 기온 예측 성능 평가)

  • Ahn, Joong-Bae;Lee, Joonlee;Jo, Sera
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.509-520
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    • 2018
  • The performance of the newly designed Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM) Ensemble Forecast System which produce 40 ensemble members for 12-month lead prediction is evaluated and analyzed in terms of boreal winter temperature over South Korea (S. Korea). The influence of ensemble size on prediction skill is examined with 40 ensemble members and the result shows that spreads of predictability are larger when the size of ensemble member is smaller. Moreover, it is suggested that more than 20 ensemble members are required for better prediction of statistically significant inter-annual variability of wintertime temperature over S. Korea. As for the ensemble average (ENS), it shows superior forecast skill compared to each ensemble member and has significant temporal correlation with Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) temperature at 99% confidence level. In addition to forecast skill for inter-annual variability of wintertime temperature over S. Korea, winter climatology around East Asia and synoptic characteristics of warm (above normal) and cold (below normal) winters are reasonably captured by PNU CGCM. For the categorical forecast with $3{\times}3$ contingency table, the deterministic forecast generally shows better performance than probabilistic forecast except for warm winter (hit rate of probabilistic forecast: 71%). It is also found that, in case of concentrated distribution of 40 ensemble members to one category out of the three, the probabilistic forecast tends to have relatively high predictability. Meanwhile, in the case when the ensemble members distribute evenly throughout the categories, the predictability becomes lower in the probabilistic forecast.

Design Reliability Estimation of Low Energy Exploding Foil Initiator (LEEFI형 착화장치의 설계 신뢰도 추정)

  • Lee, Minwoo;Back, Seungjun;Son, Youngkap;Jang, Seung-gyo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.40-48
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    • 2018
  • This paper presents a simulation-based design reliability estimation method of a low-energy exploding foil initiator (LEEFI) using a meta-model and describes the design reliability estimation results. The flyer velocity of the LEEFI is critical to initiate the explosive. Evaluation of the flyer velocity from mechanistic models in open literature requires a long computation time due to the multi-physical phenomena that generate the velocity. Moreover, the higher levels of confidence required for an initiator with high reliability incur higher computation costs. Thus, a meta-model of the flyer velocity over time was constructed in order to increase the computational efficiency for a reliable estimation. For different distributions and sigma levels of the design variables, the design reliability estimation results using the meta-model are provided. Additionally, the computational efficiency and accuracy of the estimation method are analyzed.

Prospective Multicenter Feasibility Study of Laparoscopic Sentinel Basin Dissection after Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection for Early Gastric Cancer: SENORITA 2 Trial Protocol

  • Eom, Bang Wool;Yoon, Hong Man;Min, Jae Seok;Cho, In;Park, Ji-Ho;Jung, Mi Ran;Hur, Hoon;Kim, Young-Woo;Park, Young Kyu;Nam, Byung-Ho;Ryu, Keun Won;Sentinel Node Oriented Tailored Approach (SENORITA) Study Group
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.157-164
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: Although standard radical gastrectomy is recommended after noncurative resection of endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for early gastric cancer in most cases, residual tumor and lymph node metastasis have not been identified after surgery. The aim of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of sentinel node navigation surgery after noncurative ESD. Materials and Methods: This trial is an investigator-initiated, multicenter prospective phase II trial. Patients who underwent ESD for clinical stage T1N0M0 gastric cancer with noncurative resections were eligible. Qualified investigators who completed the prior phase III trial (SENORITA 1) are exclusively allowed to participate. In this study, 2 detection methods will be used: 1) intraoperative endoscopic submucosal injection of dual tracer, including radioisotope and indocyanine green (ICG) with sentinel basins detected using gamma-probe; 2) endoscopic injection of ICG, with sentinel basins detected using a fluorescence imaging system. Standard laparoscopic gastrectomy with lymphadenectomy will be performed. Sample size is calculated based on the inferior confidence interval of the detection rate of 95%, and the calculated accrual is 237 patients. The primary endpoint is detection rate, and the secondary endpoints are sensitivity and postoperative complications. Conclusions: This study is expected to clarify the feasibility of laparoscopic sentinel basin dissection after noncurative ESD. If the feasibility is demonstrated, a multicenter phase III trial will be initiated to compare laparoscopic sentinel node navigation surgery versus laparoscopic standard gastrectomy in early gastric cancer after endoscopic resection.

Comparison of cone-beam computed tomography and panoramic radiography in the evaluation of maxillary sinus pathology related to maxillary posterior teeth: Do apical lesions increase the risk of maxillary sinus pathology?

  • Terlemez, Arslan;Tassoker, Melek;Kizilcakaya, Makbule;Gulec, Melike
    • Imaging Science in Dentistry
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.115-122
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The aims of this study were first, to compare panoramic radiography with cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) for evaluating topographic relationships, such as the classification of maxillary posterior teeth and their distance to the maxillary sinus floor; and second, to determine the relationship between maxillary sinus pathology and the presence of apical lesions. Materials and Methods: In total, 285 paired CBCT and panoramic radiography records of patients (570 maxillary sinuses) were retrospectively analyzed. Both imaging modalities were used to determine the topographic relationship of the maxillary posterior teeth to the sinus floor. Mucosal thickening >2 mm was considered a pathological state. Data were analyzed using the chi-square, Wilcoxon, and Mann-Whitney U tests. Odds ratios (ORs) and confidence intervals(CIs) were calculated. Results: The closest vertical distance measurements made between posterior maxillary teeth roots and the maxillary sinus on panoramic radiography and CBCT scans showed statistically significant differences from each other(P<0.05). Compared to panoramic radiography, CBCT showed higher mean values for the distance between the maxillary sinus floor and maxillary posterior teeth roots. The CBCT images showed that at least 1 apical lesion adjacent to the right maxillary sinus increased the risk of maxillary sinus pathology by 2.37 times(OR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.58-3.55, P<0.05). Conclusion: Panoramic radiography might lead to unreliable diagnoses when evaluating the distance between the sinus floor and posterior roots of the maxillary teeth. Periapical lesions anatomically associated with maxillary sinuses were a risk factor for sinus mucosal thickening.

Utilizing Purely Symmetric J Measure for Association Rules (연관성 규칙의 탐색을 위한 순수 대칭적 J 측도의 활용)

  • Park, Hee-Chang
    • Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.2865-2872
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    • 2018
  • In the field of data mining technique, there are various methods such as association rules, cluster analysis, decision tree, neural network. Among them, association rules are defined by using various association evaluation criteria such as support, confidence, and lift. Agrawal et al. (1993) first proposed this association rule, and since then research has been conducted by many scholars. Recently, studies related to crossover entropy have been published (Park, 2016b). In this paper, we proposed a purely symmetric J measure considering directionality and purity in the previously published J measure, and examined its usefulness by using examples. As a result, it is found that the pure symmetric J measure changes more clearly than the conventional J measure, the symmetric J measure, and the pure crossover entropy measure as the frequency of coincidence increases. The variation of the pure symmetric J measure was also larger depending on the magnitude of the inconsistency, and the presence or absence of the association was more clearly understood.

Urine Cotinine Should Be Involved in Initial Evaluation of Tinnitus in Adolescents

  • Lee, Doh Young;Kim, Young Ho
    • Clinical and Experimental Otorhinolaryngology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.242-249
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    • 2018
  • Objectives. Smoking is associated with hearing loss, while the correlation between tinnitus and smoking is not fully elucidated. This study aimed to evaluate risk factors of tinnitus in adolescents in terms of smoking, and we identified a rectifiable parameter that can be serially monitored. Methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, with 2,782 participants aged 12 to 18 years, from 2008 through 2011. Participants with history of ear disease, hearing loss, and inadequate responses to questionnaires were excluded. We investigated the prevalence of tinnitus and tinnitus-related annoyance by questionnaire and sought potential risk factors in blood and urine tests and smoking history. Results. The prevalence of tinnitus in the 12- to 18-year-old population was 17.5%, with 3.3% reporting tinnitus-related annoyance. On univariate analysis, the prevalence of tinnitus increased with age (P<0.001) and was higher among girls (P=0.012). Blood tests and urinalysis showed significant correlation between tinnitus and red blood cell count, alkaline phosphatase levels, and urine cotinine (P=0.002, P<0.001, P=0.018, respectively). In multivariate analysis, the urine cotinine level was the only parameter associated with tinnitus (odds ratio, 1.000; 95% confidence interval, 0.999 to 1.000; P=0.038). Smoking was also significantly correlated with tinnitus (P=0.043), and amount of smoking with tinnitus-related annoyance (P=0.045). However, current smoking and past smoking were not correlated with tinnitus. Conclusion. Urine cotinine may be a rectifiable marker for management of tinnitus in adolescents. This suggests that smoking cessation should be incorporated in the management of tinnitus in adolescents.

Performance of pre-treatment 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography for detecting metastasis in ovarian cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

  • Han, Sangwon;Woo, Sungmin;Suh, Chong Hyun;Lee, Jong Jin
    • Journal of Gynecologic Oncology
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.98.1-98.13
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    • 2018
  • Objective: We describe a systematic review and meta-analysis of the performance of ${18}F$-fluorodeoxyglucose ($^{18}F-FDG$) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) for detecting metastasis in ovarian cancer. Methods: MEDLINE and Embase were searched for diagnostic accuracy studies that used $^{18}F-FDG$ PET or PET/CT for pre-treatment staging, using surgical findings as the reference standard. Sensitivities and specificities were pooled and plotted in a hierarchic summary receiver operating characteristic plot. Potential causes of heterogeneity were explored through sensitivity analyses. Results: Eight studies with 594 patients were included. The overall pooled sensitivity and specificity for metastasis were 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.61-0.81) and 0.93 (95% CI=0.85-0.97), respectively. There was considerable heterogeneity in sensitivity ($I^2=97.57%$) and specificity ($I^2=96.74%$). In sensitivity analyses, studies that used laparotomy as the reference standard showed significantly higher sensitivity and specificity (0.77; 95% CI=0.67-0.87 and 0.96; 95% CI=0.92-0.99, respectively) than those including diagnostic laparoscopy (0.62; 95% CI=0.46-0.77 and 0.84; 95% CI=0.69-0.99, respectively). Higher specificity was shown in studies that confirmed surgical findings by pathologic evaluation (0.95; 95% CI=0.90-0.99) than in a study without pathologic confirmation (0.69; 95% CI=0.24-1.00). Studies with a lower prevalence of the FDG-avid subtype showed higher specificity (0.97; 95% CI=0.94-1.00) than those with a greater prevalence (0.89; 95% CI=0.80-0.97). Conclusion: Pre-treatment $^{18}F-FDG$ PET/CT shows moderate sensitivity and high specificity for detecting metastasis in ovarian cancer. With its low false-positive rate, it can help select surgical approaches or alternative treatment options.