• Title/Summary/Keyword: Comprehensive Risk Analysis

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Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic in terms of War Theory (전쟁이론 관점에서의 COVID-19 Pandemic 분석)

  • Han, Seung Jo;We, Jinwoo
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to examine COVID-19 situation in temrs of war-theory and to find out ways to overcome it. Just as the war changes the paradigm in the international situation and the national crisis management system, the current COVID-19 pandemic is bringing about the entry of the so-called "New Normal" era having the characteristics including untact culture. Although academic research on COVID-19 is mainly dealt with in terms of medical, tourism, and economics, the military research has not yet begun from the perspective of military science or war theory. In the concept of a comprehensive crisis that COVID-19 can cause enormous damage to the life and property of a country, it can be regarded as a target or enemy to be overcome. Among various war theories, the similarities with COVID-19 incident are analyzed in terms of the nature and aspect of the war and the factors of victory. Qualitative and questionnaire analysis results show that the COVID-19 outbreak is very similar to war when considering a variety of war-characteristics. In addition this research proposes ways to overcome COVID-19 based on the victorious factors of the past war, and predicts the impact of the international community after the end of COVID-19 pandemic. As a result of analyzing the priority of overcoming factors through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) shows that clear goals and establishment of alliances should be prioritized for successfully overcoming COVID-19.

The Significance of the Strong Ion Gap in Predicting Acute Kidney Injury and In-hospital Mortality in Critically Ill Patients with Acute Poisoning (중증 급성 중독 환자에서 급성 신장 손상과 병원 내 사망률을 예측하기 위한 강이온차(Strong Ion Gap)의 중요성)

  • Sim, Tae Jin;Cho, Jae Wan;Lee, Mi Jin;Jung, Haewon;Park, Jungbae;Seo, Kang Suk
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.72-82
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: A high anion gap (AG) is known to be a significant risk factor for serious acid-base imbalances and death in acute poisoning cases. The strong ion difference (SID), or strong ion gap (SIG), has recently been used to predict in-hospital mortality or acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome. This study presents a comprehensive acid-base analysis in order to identify the predictive value of the SIG for disease severity in severe poisoning. Methods: A cross-sectional observational study was conducted on acute poisoning patients treated in the emergency intensive care unit (ICU) between December 2015 and November 2020. Initial serum electrolytes, base deficit (BD), AG, SIG, and laboratory parameters were concurrently measured upon hospital arrival and were subsequently used along with Stewart's approach to acid-base analysis to predict AKI development and in-hospital death. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and logistic regression analysis were used as statistical tests. Results: Overall, 343 patients who were treated in the intensive care unit were enrolled. The initial levels of lactate, AG, and BD were significantly higher in the AKI group (n=62). Both effective SID [SIDe] (20.3 vs. 26.4 mEq/L, p<0.001) and SIG (20.2 vs. 16.5 mEq/L, p<0.001) were significantly higher in the AKI group; however, the AUC of serum SIDe was 0.842 (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.799-0.879). Serum SIDe had a higher predictive capacity for AKI than initial creatinine (AUC=0.796, 95% CI=0.749-0.837), BD (AUC=0.761, 95% CI=0.712-0.805), and AG (AUC=0.660, 95% CI=0.607-0.711). Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that diabetes, lactic acidosis, high SIG, and low SIDe were significant risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Conclusion: Initial SIDe and SIG were identified as useful predictors of AKI and in-hospital mortality in intoxicated patients who were critically ill. Further research is necessary to evaluate the physiological nature of the toxicant or unmeasured anions in such patients.

The Impact Analysis of Internal Control System on Accounting Information's Usefulness (기업의 내부통제시스템이 회계정보의 유용성에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Dong-Il
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.9 no.11
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    • pp.307-313
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    • 2018
  • In this study, analyzed the effect of the introduction and operation of internal control system of a company on accounting information usefulness in a rapidly changing business environment. In order to conduct this study, we studied a comprehensive analysis on the usefulness of internal control and accounting information, and applied the research model to the purpose of this study. In this study, we analyzed the degree of the relationship between variables based on the discretionary accruals of the modified Jones model using the internal control evaluation index based on the components of the internal control system for China. In the empirical analysis, analyzed that the operation of internal control has a negative influence on discretionary accruals, which is a substitute for usability of accounting information. In addition, the risk management factors of the internal control system have a negative correlation with the usefulness of accounting information. The results of this study suggest that it is possible to present the positive function of internal control system to many firms where the introduction and operation of internal control is important, and to provide useful guidance in the study of the relationship between the operation of internal control and discretionary accruals for foreign company.

Validity of Referral of High Risk Pregnancy in MCH Center (모자 보건 센터에서의 고위험 산모 의뢰 기준의 타당성)

  • Kim, Gui-Yeon;Park, Jung-Han
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.22 no.1 s.25
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    • pp.146-152
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    • 1989
  • To test the validity of referral of high risk pregnancy in the MCH Center, 6,017 pregnant women who visited MCH Center of South District Health Center for delivery between 1 April 1985 and 31 March 1987 were interviewed on arrival to obtain the data for demographic characteristics and obsteric history and traced to check the delivery outcome. Out of 5,820 women whose delivery outcomes were confrmed, 704 women(12.1%) were referred to other hospital or clinic for high risk factors. The proportion of poor delivery outcome(stillbirth, low birth weight and neonatal death) among referred cases was 4.4% while that of the women delivered at the MCH Center was 2.2% (p<0.01). Decision of the midwives for the referral of high risk pregnancy based on their clinical assessment was consistent with the delivery outcome (good or poor) in 86.5%. Major reasons for referral were premature rupture of membrane(46.5%) and cephalopelvic disproportion(20.0%) and the C-section rates for these cases were 10.1%, 17.6%, respectively. Discriminant analysis of the demographic characteristics and obstertric history for the discrimination of delivery outcome showed that gestational age had the highest discriminant function coefficient(0.88) and it was followed by parity(0.37) and maternal education(0.30). Referral of high risk pregnancy by the midwives based on their clinical assessment was considered to be reasonably valid. However, a risk scoring system for an MCH Center which can improve the validity may be developed if one applies the discriminant analysis for more comprehensive independent variable(including clinical assessment of midwife, demographic characteristics and obstetric history) and dependent variable (including medically indicated C-section, complication of pregnancy and delivery, stillbirth, low birth weight, neonatal death and maternal death).

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Analysis of Building Vulnerabilities to Typhoon Disaster Based on Damage Loss Data (태풍 재해에 대한 건물 취약성의 피해손실 데이터 기반 분석)

  • Ahn, Sung-Jin;Kim, Tae-Hui;Son, Ki-Young;Kim, Ji-Myong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.529-538
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    • 2019
  • Typhoons can cause significant financial damage worldwide. For this reason, states, local governments and insurance companies attempt to quantify and mitigate the financial risks related to these natural disasters by developing a typhoon risk assessment model. As such, the importance of typhoon risk assessment models is increasing, and it is also important to reflect local vulnerabilities to enable sophisticated assessments. Although a practical study of economic losses associated with natural disasters has identified essential risk indicators, comprehensive studies covering the correlation between vulnerability and economic loss are still needed. The purpose of this study is to identify typhoon damage indicators and to develop evaluation indicators for typhoon damage prediction functions, utilizing the loses from Typhoon Maemi as data. This study analyzes actual loss records of Typhoon Maemi provided by local insurance companies to prepare for a scenario of maximum losses. To create a vulnerability function, the authors used the wind speed and distance from the coast and the total value of property, construction type, floors, and underground floor indicators. The results and metrics of this study provide practical guidelines for government agencies and insurance companies in developing vulnerability functions that reflect the actual financial losses and regional vulnerabilities of buildings.

THE KINDS AND IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND CLINICAL FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH STRESS OF PATIENTS GOING THROUGH MAXILLOFACIAL SURGERY (구강악안면 수술 환자의 스트레스와 관련된 요인들의 종류와 영향력의 규모)

  • Yun, Pil-Young;Kim, Young-Kyun;Lee, Chang-Su;Song, Sung-Il;Choi, Yong-Geun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.504-508
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    • 2004
  • Surgical process of oral and maxillofacial area as well as dental treatment are stressful situations to the patients. It is well known that serum level of stress hormones including adrenocorticotropic hormone(ACTH) and cortisol increase when the body is exposed to stress. However, there have been few studies on demographic and clinical factors related with stress. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to supply data to cope with stress more comprehensively and efficiently by analyzing the effect of factors related with stress in addition to surgical procedure. Prospective cohort study method was selected. Serum levels of ACTH and cortisol were measured by sampling bloods pre-operatively and post-operatively from 45 patients who had been operated at the Bundang Jesaeng Hospital department of oral and maxillofacial surgery. To evaluate factors associated with stress, patients were classified according to gender, age, method of payment(insurance or self), experiences of operation, kind of operations(expected operations or unexpected operations). Relative risk was calculated to assess relationships between changes of serum level of ACTH and cortisol and factors related with stress, whereas Chi-square analysis was executed to evaluate statistical significance. With regard to serum level of ACTH, relative risk was 1.3 in the group of the patients who were less than 40 years old. With regard to serum level of cortisol, relative risk was 1.8 for women compared with men, 1.4 in the group of the patients who were less than 40 years old and 1.6 in the group of the patients who had not experienced any other operations. In addition to surgical procedure, factors related with stress included gender, age, method of payments, experiences of operation and kind of operations. Therefore, we should provide comprehensive schemes to reduce stress of the patients going through oral and maxillofacial surgery.

Prevalence of Hyperhomocysteinemia and Related Factors in a Community-based Health Examination Survey: A Cross-sectional Study (경기도 일개 지역사회 대표집단에서 고호모시스테인혈증의 유병률 및 관련요인에 대한 단면조사연구)

  • Kim, Soo-Jeong;Lim, Kyung-Sook;Song, Mi-Sook;Kang, Yeon-Ji;Lee, Soon-Young
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.337-342
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    • 2009
  • Background : Many previous studies have shown that elevated homocysteine in the serum is a well known risk factor for cardiovascular disease and this is associated with other risk factors for cardiovascular disease, but any Korean data on this is limited. Objectives : This study aimed to calculate the prevalence of hyperhomocysteinemia and to analyze the relation between elevated homocysteine and the lifestyle factors of Korean adults. Methods : We conducted a cross-sectional survey that included 650 men and 743 women (age range, 20 to 79 years) who were residents of Gwangju City in Gyeonggi-do. These subjects participated in the health interview and examination survey from November to December 2005. The total homocysteine, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, and triglyceride in the serum were measured. All the participants had their body composition measured such as height and weight, and we obtained health-related behavioral information through the self-entry questionnaire. Results : Very right-handed skewed distributions of homocysteine were shown in men and women. The prevalence of hyperhomocysteinemia was 22.6% in men and 13.7% in women in Gwangju city. On the multiple logistic regression analysis, hyperhomocysteinemia was associated with age (OR=1.02, 95% CI=1.01-1.04), male gender (OR=1.60, 95% CI=1.02-2.52), severe general physical activity (OR=0.32, 95% CI=0.15-0.69) and nutrient consumption (OR=0.49, 95% CI=0.31-0.76). Conclusions : There is a great prevalence of hyperhomocysteinemia in adults of Gwangju City, Korea and it was associated with both genetic factors and lifestyle risk factors. This study can suggest that comprehensive lifestyle modification is needed in order to diminish the prevalence of hyperhomocysteinemia and to prevent CVD.

Prediction of Cognitive Progression in Individuals with Mild Cognitive Impairment Using Radiomics as an Improvement of the ATN System: A Five-Year Follow-Up Study

  • Rao Song;Xiaojia Wu;Huan Liu;Dajing Guo;Lin Tang;Wei Zhang;Junbang Feng;Chuanming Li
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.89-100
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    • 2022
  • Objective: To improve the N biomarker in the amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration system by radiomics and study its value for predicting cognitive progression in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Materials and Methods: A group of 147 healthy controls (HCs) (72 male; mean age ± standard deviation, 73.7 ± 6.3 years), 197 patients with MCI (114 male; 72.2 ± 7.1 years), and 128 patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) (74 male; 73.7 ± 8.4 years) were included. Optimal A, T, and N biomarkers for discriminating HC and AD were selected using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. A radiomics model containing comprehensive information of the whole cerebral cortex and deep nuclei was established to create a new N biomarker. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers were evaluated to determine the optimal A or T biomarkers. All MCI patients were followed up until AD conversion or for at least 60 months. The predictive value of A, T, and the radiomics-based N biomarker for cognitive progression of MCI to AD were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier estimates and the log-rank test. Results: The radiomics-based N biomarker showed an ROC curve area of 0.998 for discriminating between AD and HC. CSF Aβ42 and p-tau proteins were identified as the optimal A and T biomarkers, respectively. For MCI patients on the Alzheimer's continuum, isolated A+ was an indicator of cognitive stability, while abnormalities of T and N, separately or simultaneously, indicated a high risk of progression. For MCI patients with suspected non-Alzheimer's disease pathophysiology, isolated T+ indicated cognitive stability, while the appearance of the radiomics-based N+ indicated a high risk of progression to AD. Conclusion: We proposed a new radiomics-based improved N biomarker that could help identify patients with MCI who are at a higher risk for cognitive progression. In addition, we clarified the value of a single A/T/N biomarker for predicting the cognitive progression of MCI.

Cross-sectional Design and Stiffness Measurements of Composite Rotor Blade for Multipurpose Unmanned Helicopter (다목적 무인헬기 복합재 로터 블레이드의 단면 구조설계 및 강성 측정)

  • Kee, Young-Jung;Kim, Deog-Kwan;Shin, Jin-Wook
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.52-59
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    • 2019
  • The rotor blade is a key component that generates the lift, thrust, and control forces required for helicopter flight by the torque transmitted through the hub and the blade pitch angle control, and should be designed to factor vibration characteristics so that there is no risk of resonance with structural safety. In this study, the structural design of the main rotor blade for MPUH(Multi-Purpose Unmanned Helicopter) was conducted and the sectional stiffness measurement of the fabricated blade was performed. The evaluation of the vibration characteristics of the main rotor system was then conducted factoring the measured stiffness distribution. The interior of the rotor blade comprised of the skin, spar, and torsion box, and carbon and glass fiber composites were applied. The Ksec2D program was applied to predict the stiffness of blade, and the results were compared to the measured data. CAMRADII, a comprehensive rotorcraft analysis program, was applied to investigate the natural frequency trends and resonance risks due to the rotor rotation.

Analysis of Flooded Areas for Cadastral Information-Based Rainfall Frequencies (지적정보 기반의 강우빈도별 침수지역 분석)

  • Min, Kwan-Sik;Lee, Hyung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.101-110
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    • 2010
  • The increased occurrence of flooding due to typhoons and local rainfall has necessitated damage prevention through the systematic construction of damage history and quantitative analysis of flood prediction data. In this study, we constructed a disaster information map for practical use by combining digital images and continuous cadastral maps of damaged areas using a geographic information system to provide basic data and attribute information. In addition, we predicted the areas at risk of flash floods by calculating the flood capacity of the study area for different rainfall frequencies through flood inundation simulation, which was used to obtain comprehensive disaster information. Further, we calculated the extent of the flooded area and the damage rate for different rainfall frequencies using cadastral information. Flood inundation simulation in the case of heavy rainfall was found to help improve the ability to react to a flood and enhance the efficiency of rescue work by supporting decision-making for disaster management.