• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.45 no.5
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• pp.323-328
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• 2012

Objectives: Economic growth and development of medical technology help to improve the average life expectancy, but the western diet and rapid conversions to poor lifestyles lead an increasing risk of major chronic diseases. Coronary heart disease mortality in Korea has been on the increase, while showing a steady decline in the other industrialized countries. An age-period-cohort analysis can help understand the trends in mortality and predict the near future. Methods: We analyzed the time trends of ischemic heart disease mortality, which is on the increase, from 1985 to 2009 using an age-period-cohort model to characterize the effects of ischemic heart disease on changes in the mortality rate over time. Results: All three effects on total ischemic heart disease mortality were statistically significant. Regarding the period effect, the mortality rate was decreased slightly in 2000 to 2004, after it had continuously increased since the late 1980s that trend was similar in both sexes. The expected age effect was noticeable, starting from the mid-60's. In addition, the age effect in women was more remarkable than that in men. Women born from the early 1900s to 1925 observed an increase in ischemic heart mortality. That cohort effect showed significance only in women. Conclusions: The future cohort effect might have a lasting impact on the risk of ischemic heart disease in women with the increasing elderly population, and a national prevention policy is need to establish management of high risk by considering the age-period-cohort effect.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.427-446
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• 2018

Korea will have a super-aged society within only 30 years according to the United Nations' definition of an aging society and the statistics on Korea's Population projections (2016), indicates that Korea has the fastest ageing speed in the world. There is a lack of data on long-term time-series data on death as related to pension and welfare policies compared to the rapid rate of aging. This paper estimates life expectancy over 245 years (from 1955 to 2200) through past and future forecasts as well as compares the expected life expectancy of the synthetic cohort and the real cohort. In addition, an international comparisons were made to understand the level of aging in Korea. Estimates of the back-projection period were compared with previous studies and the LC model to improve accuracy and objectivity. In addition, the predictions after 2016 reflected the declined mortality rate effect of Korea using the LC-ER model. The results showed an increase in life expectancy of about 30 years over 60 years (1955-2015) with an expected life expectancy of the real cohort over the second century (1955-2155) higher than the synthetic cohort. The comparative advantage of life expectancy of real cohorts was confirmed to be a common trend among comparative countries. In addition, Japan and Korea have a higher life expectancy and starting from 85 to 90 years old, all comparative countries show that the growth rate for the life expectancy of synthetic and real cohorts is less than previous years.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.53 no.5
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• pp.313-322
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• 2020

Objectives: This study was conducted to determine the incidence and risk factors of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke in farmers compared to the general population and to establish 5-year prediction models. Methods: The farmer cohort and the control cohort were generated using the customized database of the National Health Insurance Service of Korea database and the National Sample Cohort, respectively. The participants were followed from the day of the index general health examination until the events of MI, stroke, or death (up to 5 years). Results: In total, 734 744 participants from the farmer cohort and 238 311 from the control cohort aged between 40 and 70 were included. The age-adjusted incidence of MI was 0.766 and 0.585 per 1000 person-years in the farmer and control cohorts, respectively. That of stroke was 0.559 and 0.321 per 1000 person-years in both cohorts, respectively. In farmers, the risk factors for MI included male sex, age, personal history of hypertension, diabetes, current smoking, creatinine, metabolic syndrome components (blood pressure, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Those for stroke included male sex, age, personal history of hypertension, diabetes, current smoking, high γ-glutamyl transferase, and metabolic syndrome components (blood pressure, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). The prediction model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.735 and 0.760 for MI and stroke, respectively, in the farmer cohort. Conclusions: Farmers had a higher age-adjusted incidence of MI and stroke. They also showed distinct patterns in cardiovascular risk factors compared to the general population.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.22 no.4E
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• pp.176-182
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• 2003

As the needs for wireless Internet service is increasing, the needs for secure m-commerce is also increasing. Conventional security techniques are reinforced by biometric security technique. This paper utilized the voice as biometric security techniques. We developed speaker verification system for m-commerce (mobile commerce) via wireless internet and wireless application protocol (WAP). We named this system the mVprotek. We implemented the system as client-server architecture. The clients are mobile phone simulator and personal digital assistant (PDA). The verification results are obtained by integrating the mVprotek system with SK Telecom's code dimension multiple access (CDMA) system. Utilizing f-ratio weighting and virtual cohort model normalization showed much better performance than conventional background model normalization technique.

• Journal of Distribution Research
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.45-65
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• 2009

As a number of people using the internet for their shopping steadily rises, it is increasingly important for retailers to understand why consumers decide to buy products via online or offline. The main purpose of this study is to develop and test a model that enhance our understanding of how consumers respond future online and offline channels for their purchasing. Rather than merely adopting statistical models like most other studies in this field, the present study develops a model that combines double-cohort method with multinomial logit model. It is desirable if one can adopt an overall encompassing criterion in the study of consumer behaviors form diverse sales channels. This study uses the concept of cohort or aging to enable this comparison. It enables us to analyze how consumers respond to online and offline channels as people aged by measuring their shopping behavior for an online and offline retailers and their subsequent purchase intentions. Based on some empirical findings, this study concludes with policy implications and some necessary fields of future studies desirable.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.33-45
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• 2014

This study investigates urban household consumption patterns for clothing items in different income cohorts through the analysis of an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model. Korea quarterly time-series statistics data for urban household expenditures from 1990 to 2013 analyzed household demand. The price and total consumption expenditure elasticities of 4 clothing items (outer wear, shoes, clothing related services and other miscellaneous clothing) for 7 income cohorts were estimated to investigate the clothing consumption patterns of different income cohorts. The study results show that the different household income cohorts have different consumption patterns for clothing items. The elastic demand of total consumption expenditures in the lowest household income cohort suggests that they consume clothing items as luxuries while other households mostly consume them as necessities. The price elasticity for all household income cohorts and clothing items (except the highest household income cohort and outer wear) was found to be elastic. The highest household income cohort had an inelastic price demand for all clothing items that implied a less sensitive clothing consumption change for the clothing price change than other households.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.1979-1990
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• 2021

Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) can provide decision-makers with a likelihood to implement evacuation of a population with radiation exposure risk by a nuclear power plant. Thus, the ETE is essential for developing an emergency response preparedness. However, studies on ETE have not been conducted adequately in Korea to date. In this study, different cohorts were selected based on assumptions. Existing local data were collected to construct a multi-model network by TSIS-CORSIM code. Furthermore, several links were aggregated to make simple calculations, and post-processing was conducted for dealing with the stochastic property of TSIS-CORSIM. The average speed of each cohort was calculated by the link aggregation and post-processing, and the evacuation time was estimated. As a result, the average cohort-based evacuation time was estimated as 2.4-6.8 h, and the average clearance time from ten simulations in 26 km was calculated as 27.3 h. Through this study, uncertainty factors to ETE results, such as classifying cohorts, degree of model complexity, traffic volume outside of the network, were identified. Various studies related to these factors will be needed to improve ETE's methodology and obtain the reliability of ETE results.

• Korean Journal of Child Studies
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.115-132
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• 1998

The present study investigated the construction of the moral concepts of 3-, 4-, and 5- year old Korean children. Instruments were the Maternal Behavior Research Instrument by Schaefer for mother and feather nurturing attitudes, and the Domain Distinctiveness Model for children's moral judgments. Maternal and teacher attitudes were categorized by the affection-rejection factor consisting of affection-affection, affection-rejection, rejection-affection, and rejection-rejection dimensions, and by the permissive, -control factor consisting of permissive-permissive, permissive-control, control-permissive, and control-control dimension. Children's data were collected with an individualized interview in which children were asked to judge moral and social conventional transgression events. 30 children were assigned to each of the maternal/teacher attitude dimensions; thus, there were 120 children for each factor. Results showed that (1) the affection-affection cohort was must strongly related to moral rules using both the seriousness criterion and deserved punishment criterion, and (2) the permissive-permissive cohort was most strongly related to reasoning and action. However, this cohort did not break out of children's structural limitation (limited responses to the intangible).

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1019-1032
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• 2013

The accurate prediction of future mortality is an important issue due to recent rapid increases in life expectancy. An accurate estimation and prediction of mortality is important to future welfare policies. The optimal selection of a mortality model is important to estimate and predict mortality; however, the period of time series data used is also an important issue. It is essential to understand that the time series data for mortality is short in Korea and the data before 1982 is incomplete. This paper divides the time series of Korean mortality into two sets to compare the parameter estimates of the LC model and LC model with a cohort effect by the period of data used. A modeling and prediction of the mortality index and cohort effect index as well as the evaluation of future life expectancy is conducted. Finally, some suggestions are proposed for the future prediction of mortality.

• Journal of Sasang Constitutional Medicine
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.27-37
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• 2022

Objectives The purpose of this study is to propose a method to more specifically identify Sasang constitutional risk factors of metabolic syndromes by adjusting the cut-off value of Korea Sasang Constitutional Diagnostic Questionnaire (KS-15). Methods Data of 1997 participants in Korean medicine Daejeon Citizen Cohort study (KDCC) were analyzed. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the NCEP-ATP III, lifestyle information, and hematologic information including KS-15 and demographic characteristics were used as covariates. Results The 179 subjects with metabolic syndrome accounted for 9.0% of the total. As a result of determining the Sasang constitution for the KS-15 response based on the cut-off values (approximate 0.33), 0.5, and 0.6 of the constitutional score, when performed at the 0.6 cut-off model, the odds ratio of TE was 2.46 which showed a statistically significantly higher risk than the borderline group. For the accuracy of the model and the Area under the curve (AUC), the model accuracy based on the original cut-off of the KS-15 was 0.902 and AUC was 0.737. The accuracy of the model with cut-off of 0.5 and with of 0.6 were 0.904 and 0.902, respectively, and the AUCs were 0.687 and 0.741, respectively. Conclusion In this study, we confirmed that it is effective to increase the cut-off value of KS-15 to 0.6 in the metabolic syndrome risk model. It is expected that this could increase the accuracy of identifying high-risk groups for metabolic syndrome.