• Title/Summary/Keyword: Climex

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Effectiveness of Sensitivity Analysis for Parameter Selection in CLIMEX Modeling of Metcalfa pruinosa Distribution

  • Byeon, Dae-hyeon;Jung, Sunghoon;Mo, Changyeun;Lee, Wang-Hee
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.410-419
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: CLIMEX, a species distribution modeling tool, includes various types of parameters representing climatic conditions; the estimation of these parameters directly determines the model accuracy. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of parameters for the climatic suitability calculated by CLIMEX for Metcalfa pruinosa in South Korea. Methods: We first changed 12 parameters and identified the three significant parameters that considerably affected the CLIMEX simulation response. Results: The result indicated that the simulation was highly sensitive to changes in lower optimal temperatures, lower soil moisture thresholds, and cold stress accumulation rate based on the sensitivity index, suggesting that these were the fundamental parameters to be used for fitting the simulation into the actual distribution. Conclusion: Sensitivity analysis is effective for estimating parameter values, and selecting the most important parameters for improving model accuracy.

Application of Habitat Suitability Models for Assessing Climate Change Effects on Fish Distribution (어류 분포에 미치는 기후변화 영향 평가를 위한 서식적합성 모형 적용)

  • Shim, Taeyong;Bae, Eunhye;Jung, Jinho
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.134-142
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    • 2016
  • Temperature increase and precipitation changes caused by change alter aquatic environments including water quantity and quality that eventually affects the habitat of aquatic organisms. Such changes in habitat lead to changes in habitat suitability of the organisms, which eventually determines species distribution. Therefore, conventional habitat suitability models were investigated to evaluate habitat suitability changes of freshwater fish cause by change. Habitat suitability models can be divided into habitat-hydraulic (PHABSIM, CCHE2D, CASiMiR, RHABSIM, RHYHABSIM, and River2D) and habitat-physiologic (CLIMEX) models. Habitat-hydraulic models use hydraulic variables (velocity, depth, substrate) to assess habitat suitability, but lack the ability to evaluate the effect of water quality, including temperature. On the contrary, CLIMEX evaluates the physiological response against climatic variables, but lacks the ability to interpret the effects of physical habitat (hydraulic variables). A new concept of ecological habitat suitability modeling (EHSM) is proposed to overcome such limitations by combining the habitat-hydraulic model (PHABSIM) and the habitat-physiologic model (CLIMEX), which is able to evaluate the effect of more environmental variables than each conventional model. This model is expected to predict fish habitat suitability according to climate change more accurately.

CLIMEX-based Analysis of Potential Geographical Distribution of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti in South Korea

  • Jung, Jae-Min;Lee, Ji-Won;Kim, Chang-ju;Jung, Sunghoon;Lee, Wang-Hee
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.217-226
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are notorious disease vectors that spread various viruses including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika. Recent Zika virus outbreaks were carried by Ae. aegypti, raising awareness about the perils of its global distribution. Because Ae. albopictus is spread throughout South Korea and can carry the same viruses as Ae. aegypti, monitoring potential distributions of Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti is necessary. Methods: In this study, the potential distributions of Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti in South Korea were modeled using CLIMEX software, and changes in response to climate change were predicted. Results: The results indicated that the climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus was consistently high, while occurrence of Ae. aegypti was only predicted for Jeju Island in 2080. Conclusions: The results provide basic information for preventing the invasion of Ae. aegypti, and consequent interactions between Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, which may cause severe outbreaks of dangerous diseases.

Predicting Potential Distribution of Monochamus alternatus Hope responding to Climate Change in Korea (기후변화에 따른 솔수염하늘소(Monochamus alternatus) 잠재적 분포 변화 예측)

  • Kim, Jaeuk;Jung, Huicheul;Park, Yong-Ha
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.501-511
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    • 2016
  • Predicting potential spatial distribution of Monochamus alternatus, a major insect vector of the pine wilt disease, is essential to the spread of the pine wilt disease. The purpose of this study was to predict future domestic spatial distribution of M. alternatus by using the CLIMEX model considering the temperature condition of the vector's life history. To predict current distribution of M. alternatus, the administrative divisions data where the pine wilt spots caused by M. alternatus were found from 2006 to 2014 and the 10-year mean climate observed data in 68 meteorological stations from 2006 to 2015 were used. Eight parameter sets were chosen based on growth temperature range of M. alternatus reported in preceding researches. Error matrix method was utilized to select and simulate the parameter sets showing the highest correlation with the actual distribution. Regarding the future distribution of M. alternatus, two periods of 2050s(2046-2055) and 2090s(2091-2100) were predicted using the projected climate data of RCP 8.5 Scenario generated from Korea Meteorological Administration. Overall results of M. alternatus distribution simulation were fit in the actual distribution; however, overestimation in Seoul Metropolitan area and Chungnam Region were shown. Gradual expansion of M. alternatus would be expected to nationwide from western and southern coastal areas of Korea peninsula.

Invasive Pests and the Establishment in Jeju Area: Anoplophora horsfieldii true, Bactrocera dorsalis false (침입해충과 제주지역 정착: 노랑비취알락하늘소(가칭) 사실, 오리엔탈과실파리 거짓)

  • Dong-Soon Kim
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.62 no.3
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    • pp.213-214
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    • 2023
  • In a paper reporting the introduction and settlement of Anoplophora horsfieldii (Hope) into Jeju, it was found that Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) was misquoted as "it was introduced into the Jeju area and is currently being discovered." Fortunately, the sentence was quickly discovered and corrected to "it has the potential to be introduced to Jeju Island". Taking this as an opportunity, we would like to emphasize to researchers that it is necessary to verify very carefully when describing the domestic distribution of prohibited quarantine pests. Estimating by the cold stress index of the CLIMEX model, B. dorsalis was predicted to be unable to survive in Jeju in the winter of 2022-2023. However, in the winter of 2023, it was confirmed that the occurrence of A. horsfieldii was found to occur in the summer after overwintering at sub-zero temperatures, and it was judged to have succeeded in settling.