• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.106 no.2
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• pp.249-257
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• 2017

This study was conducted to analyze the relationship between tree-ring growth of Pinus densiflora and climate factors based on national forest inventory(NFI) data. Annual tree-ring growth data of P. densiflora collected by the $5^{th}$ NFI were first organized to analyze yearly growth patterns of the species. Yearly growing degree days and standard precipitation index based on daily mean temperature and precipitation data from 1951 to 2010 were calculated. Using the information, yearly temperature effect index(TEI) and precipitation effect index(PEI) were estimated to analyze the effect of climate conditions on the tree-ring growth of the species. A tree-ring growth estimation equation appropriate for P. densiflora was then developed by using the TEI and PEI as independent variables. The tree-ring growth estimation equation was finally applied to the climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for predicting the changes in tree-ring growth of P. densiflora from 2011 to 2100. The results indicate that tree-ring growth of P. densiflora is predicted to be decreased over time when the tree-ring growth estimation equation is applied to the climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. It is predicted that the decrease of tree-ring growth over time is relatively small when RCP 4.5 is applied. On the other hand, the steep decrease of tree-ring growth was found in the application of RCP 8.5, especially after the year of 2050. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information necessary for estimating local growth characteristics of P. densiflora and for predicting changes in tree-ring growth patterns caused by climates change.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2014.10a
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• pp.1-24
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• 2014

This study uses geo-spatial crop modeling to quantify the biophysical impact of weather extremes. More specifically, the study analyzes the weather extreme which affected maize production in the USA in 2012; it also estimates the effect of a similar weather extreme in 2050, using future climate scenarios. The secondary impact of the weather extreme on food security in the developing world is also assessed using trend analysis. Many studies have reported on the significant reduction in maize production in the USA due to the extreme weather event (combined heat wave and drought) that occurred in 2012. However, most of these studies focused on yield and did not assess the potential effect of weather extremes on food prices and security. The overall goal of this study was to use geo-spatial crop modeling and trend analysis to quantify the impact of weather extremes on both yield and, followed food security in the developing world. We used historical weather data for severe extreme events that have occurred in the USA. The data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In addition we used five climate scenarios: the baseline climate which is typical of the late 20th century (2000s) and four future climate scenarios which involve a combination of two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) and two global circulation models (CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC 3.2). DSSAT 4.5 was combined with GRASS GIS for geo-spatial crop modeling. Simulated maize grain yield across all affected regions in the USA indicates that average grain yield across the USA Corn Belt would decrease by 29% when the weather extremes occur using the baseline climate. If the weather extreme were to occur under the A1B emission scenario in the 2050s, average grain yields would decrease by 38% and 57%, under the CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC 3.2 global climate models, respectively. The weather extremes that occurred in the USA in 2012 resulted in a sharp increase in the world maize price. In addition, it likely played a role in the reduction in world maize consumption and trade in 2012/13, compared to 2011/12. The most vulnerable countries to the weather extremes are poor countries with high maize import dependency ratios including those countries in the Caribbean, northern Africa and western Asia. Other vulnerable countries include low-income countries with low import dependency ratios but which cannot afford highly-priced maize. The study also highlighted the pathways through which a weather extreme would affect food security, were it to occur in 2050 under climate change. Some of the policies which could help vulnerable countries counter the negative effects of weather extremes consist of social protection and safety net programs. Medium- to long-term adaptation strategies include increasing world food reserves to a level where they can be used to cover the production losses brought by weather extremes.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.161-176
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• 2021

In this study, one of the distributed hydrologic models, VELAS, was used to analyze the variation of hydrologic elements based on water balance analysis to evaluate the groundwater recharge in more detail than the annual time scale for the past and future. The study area is located in Yanggok-ri, Seobu-myeon, Hongseong-gun, Chungnam-do, which is very vulnerable to drought. To implement the VELAS model, spatial characteristic data such as digital elevation model (DEM), vegetation, and slope were established, and GIS data were constructed through spatial interpolation on the daily air temperature, precipitation, average wind speed, and relative humidity of the Korea Meteorological Stations. The results of the analysis showed that annual precipitation was 799.1-1750.8 mm, average 1210.7 mm, groundwater recharge of 28.8-492.9 mm, and average 196.9 mm over the past 18 years from 2001 to 2018 in the study area. Annual groundwater recharge rate compared to annual precipitation was from 3.6 to 28.2% with a very large variation and average 14.9%. By the climate change RCP 8.5 scenario, the annual precipitation from 2019 to 2100 was 572.8-1996.5 mm (average 1078.4 mm) and groundwater recharge of 26.7-432.5 mm (average precipitation 16.2%). The annual groundwater recharge rates in the future were projected from 2.8% to 45.1%, 18.2% on average. The components that make up the water balance were well correlated with precipitation, especially in the annual data rather than the daily data. However, the amount of evapotranspiration seems to be more affected by other climatic factors such as temperature. Groundwater recharge in more detailed time scale rather than annual scale is expected to provide basic data that can be used for groundwater development and management if precipitation are severely varied by time, such as droughts or floods.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.248-253
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• 2015

This study was conducted to determine the impact of temperature elevated based on climate change scenario on growth and fruit quality of red pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) in walk-in plant growth chambers. The intraday temperatures of climate normal years (IT) were determined using intraday mean temperatures of climatic normal years (1971~2000) in the Andong Province during the growing season (May 1~July 30). Red pepper plants were cultivated under different temperatures (starting at IT rise by up to $6^{\circ}C$, $2^{\circ}C$ increment). Plant height, stem diameter, branch number, leaf number, fresh weight and dry weight increased under the temperatures higher than IT. The number of flower was the greatest under IT+$2^{\circ}C$ (mean temperature at $22.8^{\circ}C$). The total number and the weight of fruits were the highest under IT+$2^{\circ}C$. While the fruit weight, fruit length and fruit diameter decreased more than IT+$2^{\circ}C$ as the temperature increased gradually. These results concluded that in condition that the current diurnal temperature change cycle is maintained in Andong area, in accordance with climate change scenarios, when the temperature rise $2^{\circ}C$ higher than intraday temperature of Andong area the quantity of pepper fruits will increase while maintaining quality, but increases more than that degree yields are expected to decrease significantly. This result suggests that the fruit yield could increase under IT+$2^{\circ}C$ and fruit quality could maintain great, but the fruit yield could decrease under the temperatures higher than IT+$2^{\circ}C$.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.179-187
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• 2016

This study was conducted to determine the impact of elevated temperature and $CO_2$ concentration based on climate change scenario on growth and fruit quality of pepper (Capsicum annuum L. cv. Muhanjilju) with SPAR (Soil Plant Atmosphere Research) chamber. The intraday temperatures of climate normal years fixed by $20.8^{\circ}C$ during the growing season (May 1~October 30) of climatic normal years (1971~2000) in Andong region. There were treated with 4 groups such like a control group (ambient temperature and 400ppm $CO_2$), an elevated $CO_2$ group (ambient temperature and 800ppm $CO_2$), an elevated temperature group (ambient temperature+$6^{\circ}C$ and 400ppm $CO_2$) and an elevated temperature/$CO_2$ group (ambient temperature+$6^{\circ}C$ and 800ppm $CO_2$). Compared with the control, plant height, branch number and leaf number increased under the elevated temperature and elevated temperature/$CO_2$ group. However, leaf area and chlorophyll content showed a tendency of decreasing in the elevated temperature group and elevated temperature/$CO_2$ group. The number of flower and bud were decreased in the elevated temperature and elevated temperature/$CO_2$ group (mean temperature at $26.8^{\circ}C$) during the growth period. The total number and the weight of fruits were decreased in the elevated temperature group and elevated temperature/$CO_2$ group more than the control group. While the weight, length and diameter of fruit decreased more than those of control as the temperature and $CO_2$ concentration increased gradually. This result suggests that the fruit yield could be decreased under the elevated temperature/$CO_2$ ($6^{\circ}C$ higher than atmospheric temperature/2-fold higher than atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration), whereas the percentage of ripen fruits after 100 days of planting was increased, and showed earlier harvest time than the control.